Runarbt
Active Member
Tesla's superchargers do goble down a lot of power which tesla pay for. If it makes sense for residentials, of course it will be money to save for Tesla.
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Tesla's superchargers do goble down a lot of power which tesla pay for. If it makes sense for residentials, of course it will be money to save for Tesla.
Seems likely. I need it to hit 190-192 again so I can put the rest of my money in. Hope that happens soon, Q2 numbers are only a couple weeks away.
Assuming people stop throwing a tantrum over the merger, July should be a great month for TSLA.
Quite an unsubstantiated statement.
Look, you guys are being WAY conservative for being Tesla investors. Due diligence will be made by people who got a lot more on the line than some individual investor, and what's more important, a lot better qualified to make such calls. If like you say SCTY's books are toxic, deal won't go through. Pretty simple. Of all people Elon is actually very careful when it comes to things that can jeopardize the main mission so the probability of him wanting to get into something that can compromise Tesla is exactly zero. No need to stress about this, unless of course you think the whole thing is one big scam set to separate investors from their money.
I think what this is is classic irrational loss aversion thinking. You don't value the up side as much as possible down side. And being quite irrational evaluating the down side too. The down side, the opportunity cost of the merger not going through is quite substantial. Don't underestimate that.
The market is now thinking the deal wouldn't go through especially after all the negativity, push back from investors, and analyst downgrades. That explains the price action today.
What they and many on the forums don't know yet is that it has already been decided. The decision was made, even before they went public with it. SolarCity is deader than the turkey you had for last years thanksgiving. It can't be allowed to go bust and this is the only way out for them. I personally don't mind it since many have their entire net worth tied to SCTY stock.
Elon really wants this done and its already been decided. If he knew there was even a 1% chance of not passing he wouldn't have recused himself of the voting, because there isn't any other option. Either a buyout or SCTY insolvency (Lost reputation, lost net worth, margin call, SpaceX bonds, harder for TSLA to raise money in the future, 20% or more drop in TSLA stock price, SCTY shares used as collateral would have to be made whole with TSLA shares taking Elon's ownership in TSLA lower and that causes more selling). I can go all day on how this affects TSLA shareholders. All the voting, due diligence etc is for show. I would think that major holders have already been informed weeks ago and they have agreed to voting "Yes"
The sooner everyone realizes this and moves on, the better. The deal is going to happen, because it has already happened even before the first time you heard of it.
Regarding why they they couldn't wait until the share price is much lower? Well, if they waited till the share price was in the single digits then it would be clearly obvious it was a bailout (can't claim BS synergies anymore) plus TSLA investors would not be OK with buying a near death company.
What they and many on the forums don't know yet is that it has already been decided. The decision was made, even before they went public with it. SolarCity is deader than the turkey you had for last years thanksgiving. It can't be allowed to go bust and this is the only way out for them. I personally don't mind it since many have their entire net worth tied to SCTY stock.
Elon really wants this done and its already been decided. If he knew there was even a 1% chance of not passing he wouldn't have recused himself of the voting, because there isn't any other option. Either a buyout or SCTY insolvency (Lost reputation, lost net worth, margin call, SpaceX bonds, harder for TSLA to raise money in the future, 20% or more drop in TSLA stock price, SCTY shares used as collateral would have to be made whole with TSLA shares taking Elon's ownership in TSLA lower and that causes more selling). I can go all day on how this affects TSLA shareholders. All the voting, due diligence etc is for show. I would think that major holders have already been informed weeks ago and they have agreed to voting "Yes"
The sooner everyone realizes this and moves on, the better. The deal is going to happen, because it has already happened even before the first time you heard of it.
Regarding why they they couldn't wait until the share price is much lower? Well, if they waited till the share price was in the single digits then it would be clearly obvious it was a bailout (can't claim BS synergies anymore) plus TSLA investors would not be OK with buying a near death company.
If you haven't been following Solarcity closely my suggestion would be to read all their quarterly reports, presentations and conference call transcripts since their IPO until now. It's difficult to evaluate a merger unless you know both companies well.
You may be right about this being inevitable if as its being reported by Elon that both boards have signed off on an aquisition.
But the truth is, Solarcity is significantly undervalued right now... It's not even a question, they are wildly undervalued... And Elon knows this. For all of those that have followed scty in detail from the beginning years ago all know Elon has time and time again has said that Solarcity is undervalued. He's purchased hundreds of thousands of shares well above current share price to demonstrate that.
If anyone (including so called analysts) would really be honest and evaluate Solarcity with some true historical reference to their balance sheet as well as context to the monopoly utility attacks through illegal and unethical policy disruptions over past 7 months, then they might actually see this is a massive deal win for all tesla investors and not so good deal for Solarcity investors.
The aquisition is a win-win, but the deal terms are a massive loss for scty investors and an order of magnitude, colossal win for tesla investors.
One would have to focus more so on quarterly/annual reports (10Q/10K filings).
Their presentations and conference calls are full of fluff, bs, deception and even outright lies.
For example: remember that Retained Value metric? ever wonder what happened to it?
Oh good, we have somebody that actually understands this complicated financial situation that scty is in. Why don't you enlighten us instead of making far fetched and completely unsubstantiated claims?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO it would be extremely helpul, in my opinion, if you posted your opinion on the SCTY half of the aqusition, based on your own evaluation of the SCTY information.
A list of pros and cons would be great.
If you want DaveT to post his analysis of SCTY, particularly as it pertains to the aqusition please hit the like button!
Foghat has me on ignore list.
Can someone ask him for a valuation model to show what he thinks is a reasonable price for SCTY shares?
(I'll give you hint, he doesn't have one. He has plenty of rhetoric handy though)
I figure this is more or less the bottom for TSLA. The market has priced in the opposition to the merger. If it goes through, well its priced in now. If it fails (unlikely) then that should be upside. I figure the merger is either a positive for the company long term or (as someone else posted) just a "tax" you pay to participate in the TSLA story.
For anyone who is sure the deal will go through - why would you not exchange TSLA stock for SCTY stock at these current prices, which will eventually be converted back to more TSLA stock than you originally had?
I think this play is actually a big part of the downward pressure on TSLA right now.
I think this play is actually a big part of the downward pressure on TSLA right now.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
But don't slcty investors ultimately profit from whatever scty adds to TSLA?
That's Ludicrous!
You realize that the same people are on the boards of both companies? If you believe that you should divest from both companies (but I'd recommend waiting for a nice rebound).
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If the merger goes through, doesn't TSLA still need to dilute another 8-10% to raise the money to buy Solar City on top of the losses that have already happened?
Or do I have that completely wrong? This isn't like other capital raises where investors have high confidence of huge return.
If they're creating X amount of shares to exchange to SCTY holders, won't the market will automatically dilute by the same percent so the market cap remains the same before and after the new shares are created? Thereby reducing the value of existing shareholders? (Market cap only raises if shareholders push the stock price back up, with the new shares in tow)
Need someone smarter than me to clarify in this specific situation
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