Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ameliorate]

Hi TMC,

Silent bystander here. I sincerely appreciate all the insight from many contributors on this forum, I wont name names as I'd accidentally miss somebody. Recently my portfolio has suffered a little with all the nonsense cluttering up and taking away from the important and informative posts. Don't get me wrong, I've read the last 300 pages top to bottom, but when only 2 of 100 posts are helpful it's harder to retain the useful posts. As per why I remain silent I do not feel confident enough in my knowledge to offer advice in trading, manufacturing or EV's, as my career and hobbies are unrelated. Probably why TMC can be such a valuable resource for many.

PerfectLogic if your goal is to clutter the forums and hurt the small time traders, congratulations, I hope you sleep well at night. I'm a carpenter, we're not all CEO's here. If I'm incorrect and you truly want to help, maybe go back read 100 pages, get caught up...make a prediction yourself and lets see if you can earn some credibility. Everyone here welcomes such ideas, but arguing for the sake of arguing is doing no favors.

I would personally find little value to stay at TMC if the veterans here were to leave.
I hope that clarifies which side I am on.

For now I'll retreat back to the sidelines
Cheers.

 

[Ameliorate]

25, typical Y generation arrogance...

Not all of us

 

[Lump]

We need to take a view on this depending how TMC responds.

I am very glad to share Tesla business / TSLA stock insights here which may help people to make money and not lose money. Nobody can say if the next call will be as good as the last but so far so good.

This however needs to be conditional on TMC maintaining a safe place to talk sense and to get some value in return out of interacting with smart people - without coming under a hail of sneering personal attacks from a pair of morons (or pair of sock puppets if that is the case).

I don't need to beat around the bush. TMC has served its intended purpose as a public records office, we have a proven forecasting track record that is inherently valuable and from now on TMC is just an optional use of my time which I don't have to tolerate being wasted in this manner. Certainly don't have to tolerate being insulted. As you can see this/these individual/s are willing to throw dishonest low blows under the cover of a block - it's too much.

So it's them or us. Please let TMC know your decision and we will abide by the outcome with no hard feelings either way.

Didn't you make demands last month when you threw a tantrum? How did that go? #12623

 

[skljsd329832]

Didn't you make demands last month when you threw a tantrum? How did that go? #12623

No. No tantrum, no demands. Constructive if a bit long and boring letter for the benefit of TMC. Can't remember who the offending party was at that time. Was it you?

 

[Stretch2727]

I think the market for EVs will (in the short term) be different than some people expect. I believe suburban families with two cars, one of which never travels more than 200 miles/day, will account for the majority of sales.

If that's true, refueling away from home won't be those buyers' major concern. They'll be more interested in knowing that a support network for their car is nearby in the event it's needed.

That's my situation. My EV will never be charged away from home, but a Chevy dealer can be found in almost every community. Three are short drives from my home and, when I'm on the road, one will be not far away. My nearest Tesla Service Centers are very long trips, even here in Tesla-friendly Southern CA.

But this is how many people including myself are using compliance cars today. Yes 200 miles cars will expand the market. But for widespread adoption and for people to use as their only car the charging network needs to be there.

 

[Xpert]

Keep the hate coming guys, I know it can be tough when people don't agree with you on the internet. Chances are not a single one of you have accomplished what I have at my age anyway so I don't really care what insults you throw at me, you are mainly embarrasing yourself. I think staying on topic would make more sense though.

No hate really, here's another opinion of you: everyone just got sick and tired of your nonsense useless Posts. Mod is probably on vacation for the weekend and I hope you get banned by Monday so we can get back to short term trading topics.

 

[vgrinshpun]

To those who were curious, the money in conjunction with the capital raise and shares Elon sold to pay taxes will change hands on or about Wednesday, May 25th. From Form 424B5:

"The underwriters expect to deliver the shares of common stock against payment in New York, New York on or about May 25, 2016."

Other interesting tidbits from the form:

" We have delivered over 122,000 vehicles through March 31, 2016."

"...as of May 15, 2016, we held deposits from about 373,000 customers who had made reservations for this car" (Since some customers made two reservations, I take it as meaning that Tesla has reservations for more than 373K Model 3 cars)

"As of March 31, 2016, we had 218 sales and service locations, 613 Supercharger locations, and almost 2,200 destination charging locations."

Common stock outstanding post raise: "145,881,312 shares (or 147,276,660 shares if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares from us in full)"

Common stock outstanding prior to raise: 133,857,684

 

[kenliles]

On a lighter note
Dad pranks his son with Tesla summon

 

[FredTMC]

I wholeheartedly agree and have done the same for these two characters.

I'll do same. Done with them

 

[FredTMC]

I think the market for EVs will (in the short term) be different than some people expect. I believe suburban families with two cars, one of which never travels more than 200 miles/day, will account for the majority of sales.

If that's true, refueling away from home won't be those buyers' major concern. They'll be more interested in knowing that a support network for their car is nearby in the event it's needed.

That's my situation. My EV will never be charged away from home, but a Chevy dealer can be found in almost every community. Three are short drives from my home and, when I'm on the road, one will be not far away. My nearest Tesla Service Centers are very long trips, even here in Tesla-friendly Southern CA.

I expect the Model 3 to be superior to the Bolt, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the better choice. Expansion of the Service Center network is crucial to Tesla's long-term success, but I doubt that it will be greatly expanded by the time the Model 3 hits the streets.

I'm 100% certain tesla will massively scale service centers as tesla grows rapidly.

 

[mmd]

I'm 100% certain tesla will massively scale service centers as tesla grows rapidly.

Any take on the Capex needed for that? So far Tesla has sold 120K cars. If it sells 400K Model 3 in 2017-2018, would it need to spend 5 times as much as it has spent so far on super chargers and service centers?

 

[Curt Renz]

Any take on the Capex needed for that? So far Tesla has sold 120K cars. If it sells 400K Model 3 in 2017-2018, would it need to spend 5 times as much as it has spent so far on super chargers and service centers?

As with any good business that has significant growth opportunities, Tesla will gather the necessary capital that smart investment bankers will be glad to supply.

 

[Curt Renz]

...Chances are not a single one of you have accomplished what I have at my age anyway...

If you are so proud of your accomplishments that you feel they may enhance your credibility, then please enumerate them in the information section of your profile.

 

[SPadival]

As with any good business that has significant growth opportunities, Tesla will gather the necessary capital that smart investment bankers will be glad to supply.

Speaking of capital, Elon Musk has Wall Street wrapped around his little finger

 

[Menifeer]

Any take on the Capex needed for that? So far Tesla has sold 120K cars. If it sells 400K Model 3 in 2017-2018, would it need to spend 5 times as much as it has spent so far on super chargers and service centers?

One short-term thing Tesla could do is partner with a company(s) that has existing nationwide service facilities. No need to tie up funds to acquire property and furnish it with all the equipment that the partner already has. Long-term, of course, Tesla would establish Service Centers as the need in specific areas becomes known.

 

[skljsd329832]

Any take on the Capex needed for that? So far Tesla has sold 120K cars. If it sells 400K Model 3 in 2017-2018, would it need to spend 5 times as much as it has spent so far on super chargers and service centers?

Naturally infrastructure will require investment in the form of CapEx but it is worth noting that it will not be directly proportional.

For example expanding a service center is not the same cost as establishing one.

Dealing with an easy to build car is likely to result in easy maintenance also.

Dealing with a simpler vehicle is likely to result in higher reliability.

Charging a smaller battery with chemistry likely more optimized for fast charging will enable a Supercharger to serve more cars per day per charging bay.

A simple iteration on the summon feature and the implementation of snake connectors at Supercharger stations (as planned) will permit cars to clear Supercharger bays on private land autonomously with no redundant charging bay hogging (with vehicles waiting for drivers to return that need no more charging). This keys in to accurate route planing with charging stops knowing that a currently occupied bay will definitely be cleared automatically on arrival. This too will enable a Supercharger to serve more cars per day per charging bay.

Looking further forward to full autonomy. Sub-critical maintenance can be expected to be scheduled by means of vehicles that take themselves to a service center. In prospect this significantly reduces the need for multiple redundancies of near to everywhere service capacity. Note also that autonomy of cars and snake chargers promises a systematic solution to charging for city apartment dwellers - cars that go away to a charging garage somewhere on cheap land with cheap power - like overnight to an actual wind farm location and come back charged in the morning.

Finally, the infrastructure costs for Model S and Model X have not proven to be radically more than the OEM advertising expenses incurred to shift legacy vehicle types and are certainly less than the cost of distribution when accounting for advertising plus the margins and commissions that support dealerships relative to the marginal costs incurred by Tesla.

Crucially for the longer term of the Tesla business model relative to the legacy auto industry, what Tesla is doing is capturing much and ultimately most of the share of customer value traditionally lost to the oil industry. Fuel savings accrue to the value of the vehicle sale and residual values and Tesla has significant control over the future of energy costs for its fleet. In terms of a future autonomous fleet that percentage of control and the ability to aggregate purchasing and super utility-scale solar and storage capacity is as valuable as the oil industry is in automotive today in proportion to the scale of that fleet.

The same applies to a virtuous circle of reliability gains in production, maintenance savings in service centers and maintenance data supplied to engineering within the same organizational structure with no conflict of interest with any party seeking unreliability and high maintenance costs as a profit center - nor the incentive to withhold information that can assist the OEM in reducing maintenance time and costs including information that can lead to early detection and efficient resolution of possible safety defects prior to injuries and a mandatory recall which greatly rewards dealers in the legacy business model at the cost of customer injuries and lives lost as well as the cost of vehicles.

Capturing the service business delivers the prospect of marginal cost savings and safety benefits that again accrue to the value and residuals of vehicles sold. The capability is also critical to operating networked autonomous fleet services in future where reliance upon or obligation to use third party profit centers for sales and maintenance presents a critical barrier to competition in terms of cost and OEM freedom to act on many levels.

 

[Curt Renz]

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

That's the kind of response that we might have expected. It failed to impress. Meanwhile, if as earlier claimed you are not short Tesla Motors shares, who is it that you expect to reward you for spending so much time and effort spreading FUD?

 

[lango]

The discussion is rewarding in itself for me. I'm sorry I couldn't impress you, it is statistically impressive for my age though. Why are the bulls on here so instisting that every bear appearing in the thread must be a paid shill? You can still be short term bearish and longer term bullish. Or some might be short, what is the problem in that? Is it really that hard to understand that not everyone seeks the feel good echo chamber for their opinions?

I actually did have some short term puts around the reveal of the X last year, are you going to burn me on the cross now?

If you read the short term thread there has been plenty of disagreement among bulls. it is not a echo chamber. We are more bullish than elsewhere because we know more about the company. The more you know about Tesla the more bullish you tend to be it seems. The problem is that you just refuse to change your methods and views when new facts and different angles of thought are presented to you.

Nothing you have said is new to us or new information. The non increasing GM for S and the flat demand has been discussed before extensively and is something many of us have thought about and you so far brought nothing new to it. Just reiteration of old things.

Neither the impossibility to grow GM and flattening demand for S and X demand being stalled makes sense in the grand scheme of things. So there is other somewhat fuzzy explanations for them, mainly accounting, production r&d and parts changes and savvy customers. You are more than welcome to dig into it from that angle or another new angle from you, but to just look at the short term data and extrapolate is not something new at all and is not reliable.

I have responded to you with a couple of long posts about each topic, the message you have ignored. This is annoying and the reason people don't like this, not that you are bearish.

 

[Causalien]

I let the weekly put sold for the capital raise announcement expire worthless. If you sold a longer dated put, consider covering soon, or in general, 3 weeks before opex, if you sold July puts for the capital raise play, I don't know what you are thinking. Only managed to deploy 5% of my dry powder (10% available and 90% in transit) as the price rush up. But it generated a cool 3.5% of capital at risk. For puts, I use Return from Capital at risk as a gauge as a conservative measure. Calculation is as follows: Profit / cost of capital if put is assigned.

Next week, the profit will be funneled into pure call buying while 5% of the dry powder continues to be used to sell puts. Of course, all of these depends on whether or not IV is high enough. The other 5% will await opportunistic call selling depending on how crazy the run up will be.

Disclaimer: The above strategy is done without the guidance of the now defunct 8 ball. So it is more conservative.

 

[skljsd329832]

I let the weekly put sold for the capital raise announcement expire worthless. If you sold a longer dated put, consider covering soon, or in general, 3 weeks before opex, if you sold July puts for the capital raise play, I don't know what you are thinking. Only managed to deploy 5% of my dry powder (10% available and 90% in transit) as the price rush up. But it generated a cool 3.5% of capital at risk. For puts, I use Return from Capital at risk as a gauge as a conservative measure. Calculation is as follows: Profit / cost of capital if put is assigned.

Next week, the profit will be funneled into pure call buying while 5% of the dry powder continues to be used to sell puts. Of course, all of these depends on whether or not IV is high enough. The other 5% will await opportunistic call selling depending on how crazy the run up will be.

Disclaimer: The above strategy is done without the guidance of the now defunct 8 ball. So it is more conservative.

Kudos again where kudos due for the April $255 top call.

What I can see looking out from May 19th is a run-up, so far without obvious limiting extent, very likely through the May 31st Shareholders meeting, Gigafactory Unveil Q2 ER and beyond.

Looks like an inverted bottomless pit and equally unnerving not to have a null hypothesis to go with it.

Do you see any kind of technical extent of a likely run-up at this juncture or any obvious challenges to the above synopsis?