Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[aznt1217]

Does anyone else wonder what in the world is going on with the Model S refresh? Elon has called press conferences and events for apps that seek out the nearest supercharger ("end range anxiety anyone") - and the 4yr refresh on its signature product is slopped out on the website with no fanfare - almost stealthily. A 75D is slipped on to the model X configurator, but no mention of a battery upgrade for the Model S?

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

Not much. Here's my take. TBH It's not much of a huge deal in regards to news. If anything Tesla probably would want to avoid this because the base price of the car went up (which you know the press will jump on without including the part about value increase).

The 75D was put on the Model X configuration because I suspect they thought a 220 range just wasn't cutting it that and there was also a price increase. Something that Tesla is already getting flack for being a 1%er brand (whether that's true or not). They could also be waiting for a Press Round where journalists get their hands on the refreshed Model S and we can have a Motortrend COTY award again (?).

No need to tweet everything. What matters for us as shareholders is this (and what makes me most excited).

1. Model X Recall has no financial impact (just service impact) for a small part
2. Model 3 Orders are still through the roof and served as free press to publicize the Tesla brand. Even in NY people still don't know what Tesla
3. Model S Refresh still keeps the older cars incredibly compelling due to driving experience, but this refresh will bring a fresh crop of customers to the brand (looks, extra amenities, etc.)
4. Model X ramp up is occurring and reports are stores are getting their demo cars. The SUV market is getting bigger and bigger (look at the F Pace, Urus, Maserati SUV, Bentayga, etc.) The low hanging fruit is there and it's time for Tesla to put out its basket.

In terms of the whole FCF and Core Operational CF. I think we'll see GAAP FCF + by Q4 unless there is an unexpected ramp of spending, but we'll see Core Operation CF+ by Q3 latest. Will this matter in a 1+ year span, probably not. Model 3 pretty much cemented Tesla as an auto manufacturer having the chops to continue the good design and tech trend. Model S refresh just proves that Tesla continues to improve with limited resources and has the styling chops and boldness to continue the battle with established automakers.

The one unknown to me is this still unbelievably high amount of short interest that is seemingly still that way due to the premise that Tesla is somehow pulling a fast one on the public or that there's not enough demand or whatever argument they are saying. If you investors need a reminder of what you are buying, go to your local Tesla store and remind yourself what you are investing in.

 

[Rarity]

4. Model X ramp up is occurring and reports are stores are getting their demo cars.

Could you please direct me to where the demo cars were discussed? Thanks!

 

[uselesslogin]

Could you please direct me to where the demo cars were discussed? Thanks!

No idea but since that topic came up I can tell you I called the Austin gallery and they told me Houston and Dallas have theirs but sadly not Austin.

 

[Julian Cox]

Not a single tweet yesterday from Tesla or Elon about the new Model S???

Something is awry - not sure whether good or bad, but something is distracting Tesla mightily.

It is in Tesla's (and its existing customers') best interests to transition smoothly to the visible Model S updates and additional customer-selectable options with minimum drama akin to the no-drama of continually improving invisible parts of the Model S build.

BTW I am quite hopeful that Autopilot 2 hardware will be available as a retrofit. The reason I am hopeful of that is I doubt they would have failed to extend an Ethernet loop to somewhere accessible from everywhere after failure to do this precluded the Autopilot 1 hardware as a retrofit. The only hesitation I have about that is the electronic steering assist actuator hardware but those probably have dual redundancy as standard anyway even in gasoline vehicles. Exchanging the processor box for one with redundancy is quite likely a straight swap and the value of doing this is extremely high compared with adding Autopilot 1.

On that note. One thing that I think is not well considered by anyone - be they shareholder (or short obviously), competitor (or even prospective owners except perhaps for a few with mad skills at figuring stuff out) is the likely effect on residual values of software-updating to full autonomy mid way through the first five years of ownership of a ≥ $35K Model 3. Like BOOM your car that you paid ≥ $35K for that had depreciated to ≥ $30K as an ordinary car is now worth at least ≥ $60K if you pay for a ≤ $5K software update and now your car can not only take your kids to school for you but it can sign on to a hailing network and start behaving like an income generating investment for the balance of its ≤ million mile drive train life.

BTW you're welcome to the predictive preview of Model 3 unveil Part 2.

 

[Hogfighter]

I for one am happy that they refreshed the S without fanfare. We aren't hearing the backlash from owners who bought an S last week that their car is outdated, like the D/autopilot reveal.

Continuous, incremental improvements to the S is a smart strategy if they aren't going to have model years.

Oh, and go short term TSLA.

 

[MartinAustin]

I hope the moderator can magically lift all these posts that are nothing to do with TSLA stock movements... and deposit them somewhere else.

Stock is up as much as 2% today a nice reversal from the last couple of days. Is this due to oil? Are we back to ebbing and flowing with the market until Q1 ER? (which could be first or second week of May, I can't pick)

 

[Hogfighter]

I hope the moderator can magically lift all these posts that are nothing to do with TSLA stock movements... and deposit them somewhere else.

Stock is up as much as 2% today a nice reversal from the last couple of days. Is this due to oil? Are we back to ebbing and flowing with the market until Q1 ER? (which could be first or second week of May, I can't pick)

I was surprised yesterday that oil was up 4%, refresh was announced and that the stock did nothing.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

From what I've heard, the new Model S will be at stores as early as this Friday. My guess is we'll see a few reviews pop up over the weekend.

Completely unrelated : 1001 posts

 

[austinEV]

We should seriously start a Meta thread "Discussions ABOUT the short term thread". A place where we can all wax philosophically about precisely who should be prevented from posting... And this post would go in the "Discussions about the "Discussions about the short term thread" thread"

 

[SBenson]

Does anyone know if Tesla is actually selling any of the Tesla Energy products at all? All I have seen so far is Pilot Projects and stuff. Not sure if they actually started generating revenues on this or not.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Ya. M3 prod plans and cap raise

Am I the only one who doesn't think a cap raise is needed this soon?

Yes, Musk tweeted that they'd need to rethink production plans, but with model 3 production start being over 18 months away, where's all that money going to go? The next 6 months is going to be used to refine the design anyway, so more money isn't going to bring up more production sooner (mythical man-month thinking).

To minimize dilution and still expand production plans, they need to show FCF by Q2, squeezing the shorts, and then issue the raise, not during this stagnant period of no news (are we in quiet period yet?).

 

[AudubonB]

Note
The 'deletion' format is not functioning perfectly; recent offending members have been warned for the last time to take their bickering elsewhere.

And apologies to all others, most especially those who have been clamoring to get this thread back under control, for the intransigence of a few members.

 

[JRP3]

Does anyone know if Tesla is actually selling any of the Tesla Energy products at all? All I have seen so far is Pilot Projects and stuff. Not sure if they actually started generating revenues on this or not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/tesla-tested-by-enel-to-buffer-rising-south-african-power-costs

 

[BobSk]

China's March export went up 18.7% compared to last year. This is viewed as a big deal. The whole world stock market went up because of this. Recent oil rally also helped.

 

[DesertCO]

Anyone else noticing the rangebound resistance at 251.9?

 

[SBenson]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/tesla-tested-by-enel-to-buffer-rising-south-african-power-costs

A lot of the article reads like pilot projects.

Many of us believed that PowerPacks are the real deal. But I can't even find them anywhere on Tesla website. teslaenergy.com simply redirects to the PowerWall section of teslamotors.com. Someone posted in this thread a week or so ago saying he reached out to Tesla for a PowerPack for his small business and didn't get any response back. So far my sense is that it is all in beta testing/pilot projects phase. Unless we see evidence otherwise I am inclined to think there will be no or not-much revenue from TE in Q2.

 

[geneclean55]

Anyone else noticing the rangebound resistance at 251.9?

Yes. Are we going to push above this today? My short term calls need to know!

 

[jeewee3000]

Stock is up as much as 2% today a nice reversal from the last couple of days. Is this due to oil? Are we back to ebbing and flowing with the market until Q1 ER? (which could be first or second week of May, I can't pick)

I think the 2% upside is basically the strong support of the 250$ level showing. SP went below shortly but should hang around the 250 mark without any (negative) news.

 

[jeewee3000]

Yes. Are we going to push above this today? My short term calls need to know!

Doubt it. Unless:
A) very positive macro
B) an Elon-tweet (which I refer to as a "Joker"-card, could be anything)

 

[DesertCO]

Yes. Are we going to push above this today? My short term calls need to know!

It is certainly a pivot and battleground. If we can gain traction above this we are headed to the next resistance - somewhere in the neighborhood of 255.9ish. If not the next level of support is 243ish. We will know soon after the munch hour, but my inclination is that we will gain traction near or above this pivot. TSLA short term moves are like the crazy aunt that forgot to take her medication.