Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Drax7]

The complexity associated with electromechanical gimmicks add little value to the quality and
utility of the vehicle,
moreover the marginal costs way exceed the marginal benefits.

Good to see the favorable price action this morning, down 5 is nothing
implying if it holds we should see much higher prices.

if we close up on the day, double up.

 

[Crowded Mind]

The complexity associated with electromechanical gimmicks add little value to the quality and
utility of the vehicle,
moreover the marginal costs way exceed the marginal benefits.

Good to see the favorable price action this morning.

This has been discussed ad naseum. Your points have been raised by @Buddyroe, and addressed by many others. X ramp is short term noise for massive long term benefit.

 

[ssq]

I have put in a 238 limit order to get back in. Not sure if that's going to click . Yesterdays after hour was a great discount opportunity. But I had just bailed at 242 after-hours yesterday wondering for a slight correction today. Gahhh

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The quarterly production numbers are probably not hurting stock price that much because of the context. Tesla is now at producing Model X at 750 per week, or 37,500 per year (assuming 50 production weeks/year) if they did not speed up the line more. If the components issue had been solved 2 weeks earlier, deliveries could have been well above 16k.

So from a big picture perspective, 14.8k units delivered is not that big of a deal.

Looking forward, the challenge for Tesla is delivering great numbers for Q2 2016. Steady Model X and Model S production & delivery are the crucial steak that investors need to remove any doubt about disruption from the X ramp.

 

[tanner]

I have put in a 238 limit order to get back in. Not sure if that's going to click . Yesterdays after hour was a great discount opportunity. But I had just bailed at 242 after-hours yesterday wondering for a slight correction today. Gahhh

Yeah... I missed out on yesterday too. Ugh

 

[ev-enthusiast]

The stock market tends to anticipate future developments.
Now it looks like we are set for a great production rate of both Model S and X from the beginning of Q2.
I guess the stock market will not wait long to reflect this price wise.

 

[Drax7]

This has been discussed ad naseum. Your points have been raised by @Buddyroe, and addressed by many others. X ramp is short term noise for massive long term benefit.

yes they have been mentioned , and they are a structural problem for model X

 

[BobSk]

The missed delivery has been added to the second quarter. This first quarter is not a miss at all.

 

[tanner]

The missed delivery has been added to the second quarter. This first quarter is not a miss at all.

It still "technically" is, but yes... Overall their guidance for 2016 is 80-90k deliveries.

 

[tanner]

The stock market tends to anticipate future developments.
Now it looks like we are set for a great production rate of both Model S and X from the beginning of Q2.
I guess the stock market will not wait long to reflect this price wise.

And if I ever decide to configure mine, that's +1 delivery

 

[flankspeed8]

The missed delivery has been added to the second quarter. This first quarter is not a miss at all.

Under this definition, then when is a miss ever really a miss? We can be very good at rationalization, but TSLA themselves states they missed their delivery targets for the Q that were reaffirmed a few months prior. How in the world is this not a miss and as investors why are we so quick to let it go?

 

[Dennadyne]

The stock market tends to anticipate future developments.
Now it looks like we are set for a great production rate of both Model S and X from the beginning of Q2.
I guess the stock market will not wait long to reflect this price wise.

I don't know.. I think this is a short-term bubble until ER next month and there will be another (better) buying opportunity than last night / this morning, followed by more gravitation to 250.

 

[BobSk]

I remember a few years ago, everyone was anticipating a quarterly beat from Apple - they always beat. Turns out they missed. The stock was down 3% that day. Then someone said people were delaying iPhone purchase anticipating the immediate iPhone4 release. From the second day, stock keeps going up, rallied something like 40%. This Tesla case is not the same, but has some similarities. A guy on SA wrote an article said "Tesla can not be trusted". If he doesn't lose money, who will?

 

[tanner]

I don't know.. I think this is a short-term bubble until ER next month and there will be another (better) buying opportunity than last night / this morning, followed by more gravitation to 250.

Better than $235? Really?

 

[Krugerrand]

Doesn't make it right to allow someone to jump the line over people who have been waiting several years.

Doesn't make it not a reasoned decision either.

As was pointed out, this isn't a new reality that's come out of left field. There are a number of very good reasons for why the line jumping happens particularly at this time (early production of a new vehicle), some of those reasons actually are 'protecting' people from being unhappy customers. This we know. We also know it's going to happen with the Model 3 because Elon just tweeted the other day that it's going to happen and gave logical reasons why. The choice becomes a personal one: accept the reality and move on, or wallow in the perceived injustice of it all and be negative/angry/upset/enraged.

I was once in a rather long line. My feet were getting sore. It was hot in the building because the air conditioning was broken. Anyway as I'm nearing the head of the line a guy comes rushing in and he's asking people if he can get in line in front of them. The answers, most not polite, were no. Then he gets to me. I can see he's agitated, desperate even, so I let him in line. Yeah, invisible daggers hit my back. He thanked me profusely, mumbled something about needing to be somewhere, blah, blah, blah. Anyway, I thought 'no biggie, I've done my good deed for the day, I'm golden'. Turns out I was golden because that short additional wait meant I got to the intersection moments AFTER the deadly crash that had occurred there. I don't sweat waiting anymore. I give myself lots of lee time, I bring a book, whatever. People need to chillax. It's a car, not life or death.

 

[BobSk]

Under this definition, then when is a miss ever really a miss? We can be very good at rationalization, but TSLA themselves states they missed their delivery targets for the Q that were reaffirmed a few months prior. How in the world is this not a miss and as investors why are we so quick to let it go?

A miss is a miss. But we have to look closer than just a number. See my new post regarding an Apple example, they missed, down 3%, then rallied 40% in a few months.

 

[daroon]

Green

 

[farzyness]

I really do hope the fact that the Model 3 will be SIGNIFICANTLY easier to manufacture vs. a Model X is lost on analysts and shorts/bears alike. This will set us up for some exciting days come next year.

 

[FredTMC]

Excellent that TSLA was able to break positive just now and show strength after the Q1 release.

 

[SBenson]

TSLA back in the green.

I can totally see 'Logical Thought' losing all logic over this. Must be throwing the keyboard at the monitor and cursing out loud at this 'irrational market'.