Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dalalsid]

Doesn't work that way. They had to order parts well enough in advance and the commonality isn't enough to divert too much production to the S. So likely they built all the S's they could and also stockpiled partially completed X's (we witnessed that). Then the fix-up for the partial X's and the crush of deliveries wasn't enough. However, it appears that they are past these issues.

They gave this guidance Feb 10, midway through the quarter. I guess we'll know from production numbers in the call how many Ss they produced. Hopefully it is a lot more than 12.5k.

 

[speedracer]

The undelivered Model X's were almost completely built. They could not have been transformed into Model S's.

So was it always expected that they'd deliver 12k Model S's & 4k Model X's to meet the 16k?

 

[JRP3]

This particular tweet during the recent EM twitter storm was to me sort of a clue that they will not meet guidance for Q1.
View attachment 170702

Had a similar feeling, but hoped he was referencing something else. Oh well, some short term pain, nothing more.

 

[techmaven]

They gave this guidance Feb 10, midway through the quarter. I guess we'll know from production numbers in the call how many Ss they produced. Hopefully it is a lot more than 12.5k.

At that point, they probably still felt that they would receive the Model X parts in time... and they didn't.

 

[flankspeed8]

I don't know where you are looking, but I think this is likely the total volume for the week. I think the highest daily volume was around 20M, so on this scale today is fairly significant.

Thanks for the clarification, that was what I thought, but the Yahoo chart showed differently. I know they are not always accurate.

 

[tanner]

I wouldn't. I bet there's a substantial dip during amateur hour tomorrow, right at the open. If I were looking to add I'd put in a $235 order. Not an expert or fortune-teller, though.

Good point. I always jump the gun and never let the news ride out enough (bad or good).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Call me a glass half full guy (for the first time in my life), but the most important part of this PR for me is the 750 X per week. That is 50% more than the entire Q4 production... So we are entering Q2 at a rate of roughly 1700-1800 cars per week (combined).

Also, notice how demand for the S just can't slow down? YoY up by 45% after a record year after a record year? A couple of guys in Stuttgart, Ingolstadt and Munich should look pretty pale and sweaty by now.

So yes, we will get dinged due to the 1200 miss. At the end of the day, though Q2 should look stellar with 21-24k deliveries.

 

[Papafox]

Is now a good time to buy?

Reasons to buy now:
* With after hours trading at 241 to 242, you can buy at a nice discount from earlier today and best of all you don't have the negative news of a possible Q1 delivery shortcoming hanging over your head
* Tomorrow Elon is likely to announce that M3 deposits have exceeded 300,000
* Info about the slow Model X ramp tells us a parts shortage was the reason, rather than difficulties in manufacturing the vehicle. This is a big derisking piece on info, when coupled with Model X run rate of 750/week
* Shorts will have difficulty getting any fear stirred up about TSLA stock value. The future looks too bright

Reasons not to buy now:
* Shorts may try a bear attack on opening tomorrow and you might save a few dollars on TSLA shares. Then again, this may not happen.

Edit: Tentonine pointed out that Elon is not planning on updating M3 res numbers until Wednesday, so you likely have tomorrow to find a good price. I would watch very carefully, though, and be ready to move quickly. The wild card would be an analyst who upgrades TSLA, based upon understanding why Model X was a slow ramp in Q1.

 

[Dennadyne]

For shorts this is last ditch chance to get out less scarred than otherwise.

For longs, this is the last dip to get in before impending mega rallies.

Make use of the dip people!!

Definitely planning on going back in.. just need to time it properly! Glad I got out at 248 today.

 

[mmd]

TESLA DELIVERS 14,820 VEHICLES IN Q1 2016; ON TRACK FOR FULL-YEAR DELIVERY GUIDANCE

MONDAY, APRIL 4, 2016

Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house. The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

Because production is now on plan and Q1 orders exceeded Q1 deliveries by a wide margin, with Q1 Model S orders being 45% higher than Q1 last year, Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance. These additional details are being provided because of the unusual circumstances of this quarter and will not typically be provided in quarterly delivery releases going forward. As always, more detailed information will be contained in Tesla’s quarterly shareholder letter.

There may be small changes to the Q1 delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Not totally unexpected looking at the European and InsideEVs estimate (which was off quite a bit on Model X).
These excuses are unbelievable. End of Q4: exponential MX ramp. Feb 10 th ER, no mention of supplier parts. Now, the supplier issue emerges from nowhere. I highly doubt the excuse. MX quality issues was the likely culprit.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

For some context, last year at this time: Tesla Delivers 10,030 Vehicles in Q1 of 2015 (NASDAQ:TSLA), Tesla delivered 10,030 vehicles. 14,820 deliveries in Q1 of this year represents +47.75% YoY production growth.

This comes as no surprise to me. Based on my observation of the Model X forum, I expected total Model X unit deliveries in the mid 2k's range. The actually #, 2400 units, was right on target. Based on this, I don't expect a stellar Q1 report in May.

I still maintain that Q2 is where we see the goods delivered.

 

[tander]

Not sure why people even care about relatively small deviations in quarterly numbers anyway, they say almost nothing about the health or future of most companies which are built to live for decades or more. This rings true for Tesla more than most companies considering that the Model 3 might have more demand than the F-series (most popular car/truck) and certainly has more demand than any of its close competitors.

 

[anon]

* Tomorrow Elon is likely to announce that M3 deposits have exceeded 300,000

Just wanted to point out that Elon's tweet on Saturday said to expect the next update on Wednesday, not Tuesday.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Apparently, Benzinga can't do basic math in their headlines. 16,000 minus 14,820 is NOT 2,000, it's 1,180. That's a math error of 70% !!! Makes the news seem worse than it really is.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla's Own 'Hubris' Leads To 2,000 Shortfall In Q1 Deliveries

 

[thx1139]

TESLA DELIVERS 14,820 VEHICLES IN Q1 2016; ON TRACK FOR FULL-YEAR DELIVERY GUIDANCE

MONDAY, APRIL 4, 2016

Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house. The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

Because production is now on plan and Q1 orders exceeded Q1 deliveries by a wide margin, with Q1 Model S orders being 45% higher than Q1 last year, Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance. These additional details are being provided because of the unusual circumstances of this quarter and will not typically be provided in quarterly delivery releases going forward. As always, more detailed information will be contained in Tesla’s quarterly shareholder letter.

There may be small changes to the Q1 delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Is this the actual press release? Amazes me they would actually claim hubris.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Is this the actual press release? Amazes me they would actually claim hubris.

This is Elon signalling that he learned his lesson and will definitely not repeat that mistake for the Model 3 launch. Everybody is thinking it anyway, better to own it and turn it into a positive.

 

[Johan]

So some of us got it more right than others today with the trading part of our portfolios (@ibcs, @austinEV comes to mind). For me I've learnt that when I try to make up stories to fit my mood about the stock I'm usually wrong. Logic tells us there would be a miss. It's black on white in the X forums, is it not? In retrospect easy to say maybe? Hindsight 20/20.

I'm going out on a limb here to say that I won't get back in with trading cash unless we go below $230 tomorrow. I'll be happy to miss out if that's the case but like I said earlier (I don't know if this is an actual English term): the TSLA bow is tightly strung at the moment and that goes both ways.

 

[flankspeed8]

Is this the actual press release? Amazes me they would actually claim hubris.

Yes. CNBC also reported that they referred to hubris. Perhaps this is a way to somewhat fall on their sword while simultaneously blaming suppliers? Maybe it is a new era at Tesla where they are starting to own up to execution missteps like a maturing company should.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Is this the actual press release? Amazes me they would actually claim hubris.

That's what it says, posted to ir.teslamotors.com.

 

[chickensevil]

Apparently, Benzinga can't do basic math in their headlines. 16,000 minus 14,820 is NOT 2,000, it's 1,180. That's a math error of 70% !!! Makes the news seem worse than it really is.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla's Own 'Hubris' Leads To 2,000 Shortfall In Q1 Deliveries

They are just rounding up... Way... Way up.