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I don't agree with this. The stock price is too low right now. It is under the last raise for one. Bet yeah, the timing for revealing the reservation numbers can be later but they want the stock to go up before the next raise and reservation number for Model 3 can be a big boost.
chickensevil
Active Member
"Company reports" is referring to data pulled by other companies... as in, this isn't Tesla's data. This way they aren't saying that the numbers are 100% accurate, but they are also not saying they are false.
Interestingly this chart is RobStark's:
2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars
It was then published around the internet, for example, see this article:
#1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)
Jan 13th is the date on Rob's post and, unless I missed something, Tesla only had given Q4 numbers at that point, not NA specifically. Yes, you can make a really great guess at what the NA numbers are thanks to the efforts of people pulling together data from Europe and such, but it is still a guess as places like Hong Kong, China, and the UK are all estimated numbers (especially at the point which this chart would have been published).
So yeah, RobStark is now famous! As his chart got published in the ER letter (among other places). I hope he got some kickbacks for that
Just to clarify, Tesla really does not need to do a "reveal" of Model 3 reservations. All they need to do is to have sequential reservation numbers for each region...
I am quite sure that given this information our community at TMC can put together spreadsheet/chart or two...
chickensevil
Active Member
It looks like we get a reaffirm from Credit Suisse:
Model 3 Reservations Could Provide Positive Catalyst for Tesla (TSLA) Shares - Credit Suisse
It's funny that their PT is still 240 (I had to do a double take on that) so they are saying buy buy buy, but only for the next 10$, haha!
So this report, Elon's Tweet, and positive Macro, today should be a good day
Pre-Market at 234 right now.
Model 3 Reservations Could Provide Positive Catalyst for Tesla (TSLA) Shares - Credit Suisse
It's funny that their PT is still 240 (I had to do a double take on that) so they are saying buy buy buy, but only for the next 10$, haha!
So this report, Elon's Tweet, and positive Macro, today should be a good day
Pre-Market at 234 right now.
It looks like we get a reaffirm from Credit Suisse:
Model 3 Reservations Could Provide Positive Catalyst for Tesla (TSLA) Shares - Credit Suisse
It's funny that their PT is still 240 (I had to do a double take on that) so they are saying buy buy buy, but only for the next 10$, haha!
So this report, Elon's Tweet, and positive Macro, today should be a good day
Pre-Market at 234 right now.
Analyst's PTs are not much to go by. They are risk averse so as long as they are right in the stated direction they are safe, and if they are not right then better be wrong less so PTs are conservative.
chickensevil
Active Member
Just to clarify, Tesla really do not need to do a "reveal" of Model 3 reservations. All they need to do is to have sequential reservation numbers for each region...
I am quite sure that given this information our community at TMC can put together spreadsheet/chart or two...
I think the concern is that Tesla will decide to change up their RN number system to hide information from the public. Hopefully they don't as it will make it super easy to keep tabs on overall deposits. This number will lose some value as time goes on and people inevitably cancel. It also has a decent difference of an impact on the shareprice having Elon say something vs the sleuthing of us avid followers.
But yes, whoever gets the first RN number would really appreciate getting that information. Because my hope is that they are using the same numbering system for Employees vs Owners vs Everyone else, so we can get an idea of how many employees actually put down a deposit. If the first person to reserve in the US gets RN001 then that will make it difficult to identify how many Employee (and SpaceX) reservations were made.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
So this report, Elon's Tweet, and positive Macro, today should be a good day
Pre-Market at 234 right now.
It's shaping up to be a good day today. I hope Elon tweets more to create attention around the event tomorrow, maybe something about queues/people physically waiting outside of stores?`
Rembemer that Tesla is a company that from day 1 has said they want the car buying process to be modern and different, that their stores are in fact "galleries" where you can have the car shown to you, help with options bla bla bla but you reserve and order the car yourself, online. So the only reason to change things up now, and have it be an advantage to show up in person at a physical store, is the spectacle of it all and the media attention. Elon is not going to let that go by without taking advantage.
Yeah, I don't expect them either. But the stores open tomorrow morning so if you want to be first in line then camping is the way to go
Well, if the idea is to raise additional capital for another automobile factory, and I think that it likely is, given how low they set the deposit, they need to let street know what the potential (number of reservations) is. The best way to communicate this is making reservation numbers transparent...
I believe that they have enough confidence in demand for Model 3 to do this.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Most definately. Give it a couple of weeks, it takes time for the main stream media to catch on, but come May things are going to be on fire with lots of interest around Model 3, people are going to be placing reservations like crazy, this is the time to announce a secondary or some other type of capital raise in order to build the second factory, which IMO more likely than not will be in China.
With Tesla’s Model S now Hong Kong’s top-selling sedan, chief Elon Musk predicts city to become world leader in electric vehicles
From the above article: "He confirmed that Tesla is investigating options for local production on the mainland this year and hopes reveal more details in mid-2016."
I don't expect sequential reservation numbers. That will lead to people being upset when they are surpassed in the queue by higher reservation numbers that select more options, and dilutes Tesla's ability to strategically play the reservation number at a time of their choosing. I do expect to hear something about it by the end of the Q1 conference call at the latest.
A factory in China won't really solve the capacity problem, though. I think it is likely US and Canada will still be the biggest bottleneck and after that Europe and Asia last. In China there are other BEV manufacturers expanding, too. So what they probably need is one in China, one in Europe and then expansion of Fremont if that is possible or a new factory in US.
Either way two weeks from now the average Model 3 customer placing a deposit I think will have to wait 3+ years and this will happen even if they raise whatever amount because of the lead time to build-out new capacity.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Maybe you're right, but you're talking about 4 factories as opposed to 1 today, that's a big leap. That will come, in time, but my guess is the first one they will build after Fremont will be in China. They can ship from China to EU. This is the future - we're going to have to get used to the idea of Europeans queuing up for American cars built in China
My WAG about discussing reservation numbers: I agree with 'Crowded mind' that there may be some disguising of reservation number sequencing. If not, then TM has already spelled out fairly plainly that priority goes to current TM product owners, then west coast moving to east coast of US, then NA, then Europe/Asia.
As to announcing numbers Thursday night: I believe it will be vague but give magnitude: EM at the reveal saying 'over 20K...or 40K (you pick your number) AND he reveals expected Q1 delivery numbers (3-4 days early): If stock price spikes in the next 2-3 weeks to $260+...Cap Raise. If not, then we get Q1ER that includes the numbers.
Time for some 'steak'......
Maybe you're right, but you're talking about 4 factories as opposed to 1 today, that's a big leap. That will come, in time, but my guess is the first one they will build after Fremont will be in China. They can ship from China to EU. This is the future - we're going to have to get used to the idea of Europeans queuing up for American cars built in China
Yeah it depends what one mean with factory. But if it means body line wielding and assembly for 300k+ vehicles a year then I don't think China first would be the right move as the demand so far seems to be mostly in EU and US/CA. But there are other ways to build a factory. They do need one or two more of the first type of factory soon in any case.
As far as short term, I thought I would add more two cents.
Quick background: I took over my own investing from managed broker funds in June 2012. I bought a few hundred shares of TSLA among others - my entry was around $30. I sold a large portion of that in Oct 2013 at around $180. For the next year I kept a core position in TSLA, but day traded on highs and lows. In May 2015, against the better advice from just about everyone, I increased my risk and exposure to TSLA with nearly half of everything I had -- entering at around $200. In July, I sold at what I thought was a seasonal peak to reduce my exposure at around $265. In Feb 2016, I again increased my exposure to a frightening level -- using nearly 75% of everything I have on TSLA. I have increased my exposure even more in the past month doing short term trades. Buying some at $215-216, and selling at $237ish. I used that cost basis to buy buy even more for short term. Bottom line -- I am heavily exposed in TSLA. I realize it's not the wisest investment choice to be cornered in stocks -- let alone one volatile stock. However, so far I have done many fold better than a managed broker in Vanguard stuff.
I study just about every aspect of Tesla -- to include the companies in it's peripheral such as Lithium miners, etc. I also do quite a bit of my own TA and comparatives (as someone recently pointed out on this thread to AAPL), and the likely trade patterns following an unveiling.
In essence, I think the short term movements in TSLA are going to be interesting in the next few days / weeks. Do not be surprised to see this move in an opposite direction of fundamentals. Again, look at AAPL historic trends for an idea (I realize comparing AAPL to TSLA is like comparing apples to oranges -- pun intended, but there is correlation). Short term interest numbers are going to decrease in the near future, but I have no doubt we are going to see bears throw everything they have at this to exit those positions. There is also going to be a possible short squeeze right around $239 -- that's where the battle line of resistance will be taking place. I certainly would not want to have short positions right now. We may test a few waterfalls, but the momentum is certainly headed to test the 239 range.
Quick background: I took over my own investing from managed broker funds in June 2012. I bought a few hundred shares of TSLA among others - my entry was around $30. I sold a large portion of that in Oct 2013 at around $180. For the next year I kept a core position in TSLA, but day traded on highs and lows. In May 2015, against the better advice from just about everyone, I increased my risk and exposure to TSLA with nearly half of everything I had -- entering at around $200. In July, I sold at what I thought was a seasonal peak to reduce my exposure at around $265. In Feb 2016, I again increased my exposure to a frightening level -- using nearly 75% of everything I have on TSLA. I have increased my exposure even more in the past month doing short term trades. Buying some at $215-216, and selling at $237ish. I used that cost basis to buy buy even more for short term. Bottom line -- I am heavily exposed in TSLA. I realize it's not the wisest investment choice to be cornered in stocks -- let alone one volatile stock. However, so far I have done many fold better than a managed broker in Vanguard stuff.
I study just about every aspect of Tesla -- to include the companies in it's peripheral such as Lithium miners, etc. I also do quite a bit of my own TA and comparatives (as someone recently pointed out on this thread to AAPL), and the likely trade patterns following an unveiling.
In essence, I think the short term movements in TSLA are going to be interesting in the next few days / weeks. Do not be surprised to see this move in an opposite direction of fundamentals. Again, look at AAPL historic trends for an idea (I realize comparing AAPL to TSLA is like comparing apples to oranges -- pun intended, but there is correlation). Short term interest numbers are going to decrease in the near future, but I have no doubt we are going to see bears throw everything they have at this to exit those positions. There is also going to be a possible short squeeze right around $239 -- that's where the battle line of resistance will be taking place. I certainly would not want to have short positions right now. We may test a few waterfalls, but the momentum is certainly headed to test the 239 range.
RAM_Eh
Member
Well said!
Interesting article on the sucssess of TM.
Silence the Noise: Tesla’s Model 3 is on Track For a Colossal Success
The really interesting thing about this statement...
..is that it mirrors John Petersen's thesis exactly! His constant diatribes against Tesla (and all BEVs) was that it was a waste to take a "scarce" kWh and build a BEV out of them, when that same kWh would be better for the world in a hybrid. Of course then he was really trying to push AXPW's lead acid batteries for hybrids, because they weren't suited for BEVs, but the thesis isn't wrong if, like John, you presume that kWh's are "scarce".
..is that it mirrors John Petersen's thesis exactly! His constant diatribes against Tesla (and all BEVs) was that it was a waste to take a "scarce" kWh and build a BEV out of them, when that same kWh would be better for the world in a hybrid. Of course then he was really trying to push AXPW's lead acid batteries for hybrids, because they weren't suited for BEVs, but the thesis isn't wrong if, like John, you presume that kWh's are "scarce".
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