Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tander]

That's very logical and makes sense. Somehow, though, that doesn't give me any confidence that the regulatory bodies will move accordingly.

Yikes, hope that's not the case. I'm hoping that they are so good at working with gov. entities that it will be easy, they've been planning this for years now after all, but who knows. It does seem like working with NASA or the Air Force would be harder than the NHTSA, it's not rocket science after all.

 

[geneclean55]

The Tesla effect: Can you get rich from electric cars?

A little video report on the BBC website, regarding investing in electric car companies.
Some of the narrators comments made me cringe. 'Tesla lose money on every car sold" ugh...

 

[Papafox]

Please allow me to indulge in something stupid: trying to predict Friday's trading. If I screw up, then I won't have to go through this exercise again. This prediction assumes nothing major happening with broader markets, with major FUD or news.I have no money riding on this prediction and neither should you.

Observations:
* Longs are ready to ease TSLA higher
* Shorts are edgy and willing to play games to keep TSLA from running higher

Prediction:
* In early trading, either pre-market or amateur hour, TSLA trades up
* During the morning's trading, shorts will begin selling to spike TSLA down into the red, probably a few dollar's worth
* Longs will then bring TSLA back up to the edge of green, shorts will try to sink it back into the red, but eventually longs will prevail and TSLA will close higher.
* If TSLA rises too early in the day and levels off, shorts will trim some of the gains in the low volume hours of the afternoon
* Max-pain is 217 but as long as volume is up it shouldn't have much effect except for perhaps the final half hour of trading

 

[mrdoubleb]

The X June deliveries thread looks very promising. Cars in 4k-7k VIN range plus even one 8k promised delivery by the end of the month. Also, noticeably shorter turnarounds from production start to delivery.

Not to read too much into VINs, but coupled with Elon's recent confidence, I have zero worries about Q2 deliveries.

 

[stef]

Much in the face of increased competition, these guys are already giving up...

BMW puts EVs on the ‘back burner’ to focus ‘i’ brand on self-driving cars

 

[Hogfighter]

Yikes, hope that's not the case. I'm hoping that they are so good at working with gov. entities that it will be easy, they've been planning this for years now after all, but who knows. It does seem like working with NASA or the Air Force would be harder than the NHTSA, it's not rocket science after all.

NASA has powerful motivations to keep the US in space, and not rely solely on Russia or the ULA. The Air Force needs to get their satellites up without spending a ton of dough.

The NHTSA has no motivation to take chances on anything.....even if the data shows that it's safer. Although Elon is correct that autonomy just needs to be statistically safer than humans, the court of public opinion is what matters.....and we all know how smart people are.

 

[AlMc]

Please allow me to indulge in something stupid: trying to predict Friday's trading. If I screw up, then I won't have to go through this exercise again. This prediction assumes nothing major happening with broader markets, with major FUD or news.I have no money riding on this prediction and neither should you.

Observations:
* Longs are ready to ease TSLA higher
* Shorts are edgy and willing to play games to keep TSLA from running higher

Prediction:
* In early trading, either pre-market or amateur hour, TSLA trades up
* During the morning's trading, shorts will begin selling to spike TSLA down into the red, probably a few dollar's worth
* Longs will then bring TSLA back up to the edge of green, shorts will try to sink it back into the red, but eventually longs will prevail and TSLA will close higher.
* If TSLA rises too early in the day and levels off, shorts will trim some of the gains in the low volume hours of the afternoon
* Max-pain is 217 but as long as volume is up it shouldn't have much effect except for perhaps the final half hour of trading

Excellent concept. We will reset your predictions using current MAX Pain of $220

 

[mrdoubleb]

Much in the face of increased competition, these guys are already giving up...

BMW puts EVs on the ‘back burner’ to focus ‘i’ brand on self-driving cars

Wait, what? So what about their "Tesla killer"???

Seriously though, i read that earlier today and the first thing that crossed my mind was that BMW was the only company beside Nissan taking EVs seriously... now they have effectively capitulated for the next 5 years.

A very bad move, IMHO as our M3 is going to cause serious pain for their M3. This may become their "Nokia board room laughing at the iPhone" moment down the road.

 

[EinSV]

Wait, what? So what about their "Tesla killer"???

Seriously though, i read that earlier today and the first thing that crossed my mind was that BMW was the only company beside Nissan taking EVs seriously... now they have effectively capitulated for the next 5 years.

A very bad move, IMHO as our M3 is going to cause serious pain for their M3. This may become their "Nokia board room laughing at the iPhone" moment down the road.

Wow, this is huge. I figured BMW would provide Tesla the stiffest competition among the traditional automakers.

 

[MitchJi]

The NHTSA has no motivation to take chances on anything.....even if the data shows that it's safer. Although Elon is correct that autonomy just needs to be statistically saferthan humans, the court of public opinion is what matters.....and we all know how smart people are.

And we also know how much people like AP and that statistics are important to beauricrats for determining safety.

 

[Irishjugg]

Wow, this is huge. I figured BMW would provide Tesla the stiffest competition among the traditional automakers.

I'm actually super disappointed, I'm sure Elon is basically furious. Amazing to see so many car majors punting on this, I guess they will all go broke.. Looks like my options will be Tesla, Apple, and FF and that's about it in the next few years (assuming Apple and FF can actually deliver by then.)

 

[madodel]

I'm actually super disappointed, I'm sure Elon is basically furious. Amazing to see so many car majors punting on this, I guess they will all go broke.. Looks like my options will be Tesla, Apple, and FF and that's about it in the next few years (assuming Apple and FF can actually deliver by then.)

Wonder how much convincing the oil pumpers had to do to get BMW to dump the EV. I seem to recall hearing a story about this a couple decades ago. ;-) From the looks of all the competition, Exxon probably has someone on the design teams to make certain none of these electrics offers any real competition to carbon burners. Thankfully Tesla doesn't play that.

 

[MitchJi]

Much in the face of increased competition, these guys are already giving up...

BMW puts EVs on the ‘back burner’ to focus ‘i’ brand on self-driving cars

BMW revamps i electric car division to focus on self-driving tech

Now, rather than seeking to match the likes of Tesla and Porsche with a new zero-emissions sports limousine for release within the next two years, its main focus will be on developing an electric car with the next generation of technology: autonomous driving.
<Snip>

As part of its autonomous driving push, BMW is hiring experts in machine learning and artificial intelligence. It is also integrating the functions of existing computer driven assistance systems like cruise control, emergency braking, lane-keeping support and automatic parking.

With a fully autonomous vehicle, BMW could launch a ride-hailing business without having to pay drivers, Froehlich said, giving carmakers a competitive edge over new ride-hailing companies like Uber [UBER.UL] and Lyft which are eroding car sales by making part-time use as convenient as ownership.
<Snip>
China, the world's largest car market, is likely to be the market where autonomous cars will first emerge on a large scale, Froehlich said.

"China is extremely fast implementing technology. Last year more electric cars were sold in China than in all the other global markets combined," he added.

BMW is also considering expanding in the area of reserving parking spaces and electric car charging stations over mobile phones, a market which is still fragmented within countries. The carmaker has already invested in ParkNow and Parkmobile, two digital parking and payment services.

"We want to actively participate in a consolidation process," Froehlich said.

Admitting that they can't compete with battery prices and energy density, which was obvious given their focus on PHEV's.

They should buy battery packs from Tesla and partner on superchargers.

 

[Intl Professor]

I didn't take the time to read earlier posts this time before posting. At the risk of repeating old news, here goes.

The Seeking Alpha news editor recently posted positive news on TSLA. The link to Technology Review dated May 24 led to something I vaguely remember was discussed earlier on our forum.

Tesla Tests Self-Driving Functions with Secret Updates to Its Customers’ Cars

 

[MitchJi]

Maybe Julian is correct about the GF Party boosting the SP?:
Tesla Gigafactory Grand Opening: Should Investors Care? - Market Realist

Gigafactory update
Tesla Gigafactory is an ambitious project that could become a game-changer for Tesla. In its 1Q16 shareholder letter, the company revealed that it plans to build half a million cars per year from fiscal 2018. This upped Tesla’s production plan by two years from the original plan for 2020.

The company also stated that it remains on plan to make the first cells at its Gigafactory in 4Q16. It adjusted the plan to accommodate a revised build plan at Gigafactory.
<Snip>
During Gigafactory’s grand opening event, investors can expect an announcement on how Tesla plans to advance its operations to match its revised units build plan.

In this series, we’ll see why Tesla’s progress on production and deliveries in fiscal 2016 may drive its stock. First, let’s see why Gigafactory could be very important to ensure the success of Model 3.

 

[austinEV]

This is where I'm unsure of the outcome. It's taking quite an effort and a lot of time for Tesla to just sell their cars throughout all of the US with some states holding very firmly to the dealership model as the only model. And in that case Tesla has a lot of public support. But how is the public going to view autonomous cars? It's taken the public quite some time to wrap their brains around fully electric cars and still a large segment doesn't believe an EV is a viable mode of transportation. Will the public back autonomous cars and put enough pressure on regulators to make this the real deal? Can the regulators be pressured enough by Tesla themselves and all their autonomous data?

Adding: If I remember correctly, Elon said in the interview last night (or recently in some other talk) that some countries were going to be easier/faster to get regulatory approval for autonomous cars over others. That makes sense - but what a mess. Why do some of us have to be such cavemen?

Autonomy will be adopted as fast as the technology allows. Consider:

1) When people try it they like it a lot
2) Accidents will go down by a factor of 10
3) Insurance rates will go down
4) Powerful forces, state and local governments will push hard for it. This one tech unlocks a vast capacity upgrade to the existing infrastructure with zero additional spend.
5) The automakers will favor it. It will lead to more vehicle miles being driven (which is actually a really bad thing: more pollution and urban sprawl)
6) Remember the squawking us Austinites made when Uber/Lyft left? People got used to cheap-ish on-demand ride sharing. Imagine how quickly people will get used to VERY cheap automated ride catching. A lot of people will suddenly opt out of car ownership.
7) The elderly (they vote) will love it and depend on it.
8) The automakers and policy makers will support each other through inevitable issues and isolated accidents/deaths. No one will vilify each other since they will all be getting in the same market.

Heck someone in a wheelchair might eventually realize they could sue on ADA grounds if force lined up against it.

I think people will be shocked how fast it happens. The controversy will be when, in 5-8 years of full autonomy when cities start mandating it. Then the coal rolling luddites will make it a political issue. The big fight will be between the full autonomous urban crowd and the optional-autonomy rural crowd which will echo the gun rights debate, complete with "they want to take your cars away" rhetoric.

I may need to post this in the prediction thread

 

[esk8mw]

How can BMW make something as ugly and useless (from a pure EV perspective) as the i3, get predictably low sales, and then claim pure EVs should be put on the backburner?

No one is taking Tesla seriously and it will haunt them. I guess Elon is going to have to step in and personally take a 20% slice of 3 series' sales before they wake up. Declining 7 series sales wasn't enough, apparently.

 

[Johan]

Perfectly put @austinEV.

Re the last part: I imagine an even older looking Bob Lutz holding on to a steering wheel with arms lifted saying "They'll have to pry it from my cold, dead hands!"

 

[esk8mw]

For some reason (probably weak macro) we are extremely susceptible to shorts today, it seems. We are being pushed down hard on low volume. Will be interesting to see how the SP plays out today. Will 217 remain strong resistance?

 

[Johan]

Tesla proving, once again that their communications department is the retarded sibling in the family...

Twitter

Am I supposed to be impressed?!?

Trabant did this splendidly already in the 60's and 70's. Check out this classic video. Especially note the correction of door alignment...