Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[McMuggets]

Recent Bear Activity

Ok scouts, listen up.
We've seen a lot of bear activity in these parts lately, but no worries, it's going to taper off dramatically soon. Bear attacks are most common towards the end of their active periods. With black and brown bears, we call it hyperphasia prior to hibernation, but with Tesla bears we call it anxiety prior to the end of a downtrend. Use your compasses to stay on course and we'll be out of the woods soon, quite possibly beginning this week.

Sometimes the bears attack each other for no reason too.

 

[FredTMC]

He's pushing capital markets like everything else. We know his goals, but none say anything about maximizing share price. If you consider his goal to switch to renewables and electric cars as soon as possible then keeping a high investment rate to support rapid / reckless growth is right on target.

Capital is to be used. There is little difference between 4% dilution or 5% to Musk.

Nice. Bring the capital raise, Elon. Let's do this.

 

[Stealth]

Anyone with an invite to the Gigafactory opening party know anything about a date? Is it still confirmed to be at the end of May?

I have an invite but haven't heard a thing about the date. I would like to know when it is also so I can plan my vacations. Anyone have any idea?

 

[Johan]

Nice. Bring the capital raise, Elon. Let's do this.

My avatar has been saying this for a while now

 

[MitchJi]

. For the record, I agree that Tesla share price and performance won't change materially from it's current range bound situstion until closer to model 3. I do think however that expecting it to grow well beyond this over the last few years doesn't make much sens . As bears have pointed out quite often TSLA has been priced basically got perfect model 3 execution since the major short squeeze that got us to these prices. Selling more S and X than initial projections doesn't matter much to raise the price when it's priced on model 3 already, so I don't think much growth should have been expected over the last 2 years

I disagree. IMO when they start producing the MX in quantity and if they hit guidance and when TE starts making a substantial contribution, and they get the capital they need I think we could see a new high.

OTOH if they continue to have production problems and don't have a good cash flows it will probably get ugly.

 

[JRP3]

Look for Tesla shareholders who stick with Elon to be hugely rewarded by his philosophy.

In other words if you don't like the way management runs the company you probably should invest elsewhere.

 

[Drax7]

I disagree. IMO when they start producing the MX in quantity and if they hit guidance and when TE starts making a substantial contribution, and they get the capital they need I think we could see a new high.

OTOH if they continue to have production problems and don't have a good cash flows it will probably get ugly.

Manufacturing and selling model X matters a great deal to the stock price .
It gives investors confidence . Confidence influences a stock price based
On far out goals. Confidence is required to raise money .

 

[vgrinshpun]

Evercore ICI raised PT from $310 to $320, put out good balanced overview (via StreetInsider):

Galliers said while Tesla has been criticized by some for an apparent lack of delivery, they view view Tesla as a “Top Achiever” and believe shortfalls are a function of aggressive objectives. "Those who are critical of Tesla’s achievements should take a step back and consider what the company has delivered to date," he said.

The analyst said they don't believe delays in the launch and ramp-up of the Model X are the “best” proxy for the Model 3. The Model S was delivered on time and the Model X only 9 months late, he highlights. "Delayed product introductions are not unique to Tesla but also occur at traditional OEMs," he said. "Unlike Tesla, most OEMs don't provide details on when products will come to market, making it difficult to determine from the outside whether products are on track or falling behind."
.

 

[Irishjugg]

I disagree. IMO when they start producing the MX in quantity and if they hit guidance and when TE starts making a substantial contribution, and they get the capital they need I think we could see a new high.

OTOH if they continue to have production problems and don't have a good cash flows it will probably get ugly.

I think they will hit guidance this year, so it will be interesting to see. For us to hit new highs we will need to be somewhere roughly near 230/240 before any of that news happens, preferably higher otherwise it may be too far to run. Now cash flow positive may be a different story. Seems tough to accomplish if they will be spending on model 3 volume tooling so soon now, so I'm seeing FCF+ as a pretty tough ask. Certainly possible though.
In any case, to me late Q3 or early Q4 are almost close enough to model 3 for what I meant. I think we fundamentally agree but I see the breakout as less likely than you do until 2017, so I expect a bit more range bound for most if not all of 2016.

 

[vgrinshpun]

To put things in perspective, hitting guidance for automotive deliveries this year will likely mean that Tesla will also be non-GAAP profitable. This in itself, aside from being FCF positive, will be very strong catalyst (hopefully a series of catalysts: Q2, Q3 and then Q4)

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some get it: Tesla is yanking rug from underneath European premium brands, mainly German brands.

It is going to hurt.

Nice coachwork is not going to cut it.

Why Tesla’s Mass-Market Car Should Scare Mercedes and BMW

 

[ggies07]

Evercore ICI raised PT from $310 to $320, puts out good balanced overview (via StreetInsider):

they view Tesla as a “Top Achiever” and believe shortfalls are a function of aggressive objectives. "Those who are critical of Tesla’s achievements should take a step back and consider what the company has delivered to date," he said.

Beautiful.

 

[Cattledog]

Some get it: Tesla is yanking rug from underneath European premium brands, mainly German brands.

It is going to hurt.

Nice coachwork is not going to cut it.

Why Tesla’s Mass-Market Car Should Scare Mercedes and BMW

While it's undeniable that Tesla is taking existing premium car drivers from the big German brands (we were one), what is the longer term hurt is that Tesla is becoming the aspirational brand for people coming from more mainstream manufacturers. That interrupts the pipeline to future buyers in a far more impactful way than stealing a few current ones. Advantage Tesla.

 

[vgrinshpun]

News from the BMW shareholder's meeting.

Those guys decide to take their time...

Via Seeking Alpha news:

BMW to do a slow roll into the long-range EV game

• BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) CEO Harald Krueger says the automaker's long-range battery electric vehicle is still several years away from being introduced. The EV replacement for the 7-Series sedan is expected to come to market in 2021 -long after Audi (OTCPK:VLKAY), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPAIF), and Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) are in with their aspiring game changers.
• Krueger made the announcement at BMW's annual shareholder meeting in Munich, Germany amid a broad talk on strategy.
• The iNext from BMW will include advanced autonomous driving features and the latest mobility technology on top of the +500 km range.
• The German automaker's slow roll into the long-range EV market has raised some questions with industry analysts, even as i3 and i8 EV/hybrid sales come in at a tepid pace.
• Car shopping data does seem to suggest that BMW needs to take the Tesla threat seriously. 28% of Tesla shoppers in March also looked at a BMW model which was the leading brand overlap by a wide margin (Toyota 23%, Audi 20%, Mercedes-Benz 19%, Ford 17%, Lexus 16%).

 

[MitchJi]

Some get it: Tesla is yanking rug from underneath European premium brands, mainly German brands.

It is going to hurt.

Nice coachwork is not going to cut it.

Why Tesla’s Mass-Market Car Should Scare Mercedes and BMW

Competition from the Model 3 might prompt German carmakers to drop some prices as much as 10 percent to defend their U.S. market share, says Stuart Pearson, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas. Tesla is aiming the Model 3 at “those looking to spend roughly $40,000 on a car, and that’s the core target market for BMW and Mercedes basically,” he says. “The fact is they don’t really have an answer to the Model 3 until the next decade.”

 

[esk8mw]

Well, I guess we are headed for 200 on the week. Ugly reversal today in the broader market.

 

[dirtyofries]

Well, I guess we are headed for 200 on the week. Ugly reversal today in the broader market.

Just means it's a good time to bulk up the portfolio.

 

[aznt1217]

Stock is stuck in a rut, but I think at a level way below what it should be. I'd accept it more if it was stagnant at $242 which was the last raise that got gobbled up by investors.

Right now, it just seems that we're waiting on the next catalyst which could come in many different forms. Perhaps the 500,000th Model 3 reservation? Maybe it's a new hire. I believe we'll see some action May 31st.

 

[Tslynk67]

Down down, deeper and down...

Funny - a month back I was urging the stock up, now I'm hoping it crashes back to 140 so I can buy a load more

 

[Johan]

LOL. Fred Lambert wrote a counter on Electrec using Curt's argument against LA Times - their owner's own SEC filing on risks to the business. Elon retweeted it

LA Times continues attack on Tesla using boilerplate risk disclosure as ‘admitting huge risk’ for the Model 3