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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Low gas prices didn't help Leaf sales and the low range EVs will remain marginalized until such time gas prices are back to $3.50 or more. No one foresaw the collapse of gas prices. Unfortunate it came at a time when EVs were barely trying to get a foot hold.

No wonder his enthusiasm is dampened.
 
Thanks for highlighting those points.

I'm definitely a Ghosn fan. Love the direct, honest way he talks, and think he has very good vision. He's a genuine colleague of Musk, imho.
[...]

I like the way Ghosn is leading Renault-Nissan company a lot, big fan as well.
Remember Renault-Nissan is so different to start up Tesla, Ghosn has to do things differently.

I am beginning to think that the race is no longer for the world's best EV, charging infrastructure or anything.
The race is already about the first and best autonomous vehicle driving fleet for ride sharing services.
Obviously this is the game for economic reasons. EVs only help to get there.
Jonas knows something we don't.
He'll ask Musk the very same question again as soon as possible.
 
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Right. My point is that if Tesla sells an autonomous car too cheaply, then the likes of Uber, Lyft, taxis, etc.will buy them all up. It would help if Tesla had its own service, but the fundamental economic problem is pricing the car well below the value of a vehicle in ridesharing service. The idea that Tesla customers are going to reap incredible profits here is naive. The cars will be bought up to what they are worth, not sold at a deep discount. As shareholder, we would not want Tesla to sell at a deep discount. Basically, reservations and orders would be filled up with people who simply flip the car into service once they acquire it, and Tesla leaves massive money on the table.

cant tesla deny uber using the cars this way? They sell cars for personal use only, and reserve the right to use the software for uber like service for tesla "share service"?

tesla own the software, and can decide who get to use the expanded drive share version?;-)
 
Jonas knows something we don't. He'll ask Musk the very same question again as soon as possible.

Elon might prefer not to talk about this before the Model 3 sells by millions. Otherwise, Tesla won't get the enough cash in time to pay for the factories needed for the Tesla fleet. I explain why it's important to prioritize private owners for the Model 3 in the Tesla Autopilot Competition Developments thread.
 
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I like the way Ghosn is leading Renault-Nissan company a lot, big fan as well.
Remember Renault-Nissan is so different to start up Tesla, Ghosn has to do things differently.

I am beginning to think that the race is no longer for the world's best EV, charging infrastructure or anything.
The race is already about the first and best autonomous vehicle driving fleet for ride sharing services.
Obviously this is the game for economic reasons. EVs only help to get there.
Jonas knows something we don't.
He'll ask Musk the very same question again as soon as possible.
yes Ghosn a pioneer in EV but has sat on leaf with no significant improvements over 3 years. i do not consider the minimal battery range improvement significant this year especially since it is not backward compatible. they are loosing market share. poor crash test, not improved as far as i can tell. i look for them to loose more market share this year as well deep discounts and large inventory of 2016 cars. contrast that to volt without discounting and cars bought in transit before arrival at dealorships
 
cant tesla deny uber using the cars this way? They sell cars for personal use only, and reserve the right to use the software for uber like service for tesla "share service"?

tesla own the software, and can decide who get to use the expanded drive share version?;-)

...or tesla can sell the car with autonomy for private use included, and an option to open for uber use, and price this at $40000 a year in software license fee?;-)
 
Another reason Leaf sales are slow is because former Leaf customers are moving to CPO Teslas. In Hawaii, Leaf owners are a huge buyer of used or CPO Tesla Model S cars. The Leaf is converting these people to EV die-hards, and then they're moving to a vehicle with suitable range and more performance.

Consider, too, the powerful appeal of a Tesla once autonomous driving is combined with the free long-distance charging network and automated charging adapters. Need to be 400 miles away at 7 am the next morning? No problem, take your pillow in the Tesla and sleep as your vehicle drives and charges its way to your destination. Bring the big dog, too, if you like. You can't do that on an airliner without great expense.
 
...or tesla can sell the car with autonomy for private use included, and an option to open for uber use, and price this at $40000 a year in software license fee?;-)

Yeah, some sort of licensing for commercial use would provide a way to properly monetize this service. If you had this license for private use, I'm not sure how Tesla would be able to enforce it. If I have the private use license and let my friends borrow my car, how does Tesla know whether I am actually making commercial use of the vehicle.

So one option is for Tesla to charge a certain rate per mile for full autonomous driving, say 25c/mile. This would be easily enforceable and could keep the cost of purchase low. So you can buy your $40k Model 3 and have until item use of autopilot. But if you really want the car to be self driven it will cost you a little for this service. Perhaps a typical private user might use this service about 4000 miles per year, or $1000 per year. But if you are an Uber, you are trying to put 100k autonomous miles on the car each year, so you wind up paying Tesla an extra $25k per year for the service. Moreover, Uber is happy to pay this fee because it is much cheaper than paying a human driver. Additionally a commercial vehicle is going to want special software and hardware for doing point of sale transactions and monitoring the vehicle occupants. So an Uber would be willing to pay for these extra features as well.

So perhaps something like that would properly monetize the value of fully autonomous driving. It may take a while for consumers to adjust to it. Consumers would wonder why they would need to pay 25c/mile just to use autonomy when they have already purchased the care outright. The answer is that an unlimited autonomous driving license would cost over $200k, so it is cheaper to pay per mile. It's a bit like asking why do I have to pay $9/month. Because a lifetime subscription would cost $2500. So the transition to transportation as a service (TaaS ) impacts how cars are sold for private ownership.
 
I get the idea (charging a rate of 25c/mile for autonomous driving), but it's unlikely Tesla will do this. Basically consumers would buy their autonomous car twice: once by making their purchase of the vehicle, and a second time when they use their vehicle. This would scare off many customers and help the competition. (I know, I know, Musk doesn't care and wants the advent of EV's either way, but Tesla didn't get where it is today by ignoring the competition completely. Tesla just beats it.)

Much more likely Tesla will offer their own Uber-esque service without profit-margins (like the supercharger-network). This way Uber could never compete as Tesla will always be able to underprice Uber.

According to this interview (Elon Musk believes Apple is making an electric car (2016.1.11) - YouTube), the Model 3 will be in production at the end of 2017 (so let's say december). And full autonomy is 2 years away minimum (february 2018).
Put these together and we can expect a Tesla-fleet by 2021 at the latest.
 
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Yeah, some sort of licensing for commercial use would provide a way to properly monetize this service. If you had this license for private use, I'm not sure how Tesla would be able to enforce it. If I have the private use license and let my friends borrow my car, how does Tesla know whether I am actually making commercial use of the vehicle.

So one option is for Tesla to charge a certain rate per mile for full autonomous driving, say 25c/mile. This would be easily enforceable and could keep the cost of purchase low. So you can buy your $40k Model 3 and have until item use of autopilot. But if you really want the car to be self driven it will cost you a little for this service. Perhaps a typical private user might use this service about 4000 miles per year, or $1000 per year. But if you are an Uber, you are trying to put 100k autonomous miles on the car each year, so you wind up paying Tesla an extra $25k per year for the service. Moreover, Uber is happy to pay this fee because it is much cheaper than paying a human driver. Additionally a commercial vehicle is going to want special software and hardware for doing point of sale transactions and monitoring the vehicle occupants. So an Uber would be willing to pay for these extra features as well.

So perhaps something like that would properly monetize the value of fully autonomous driving. It may take a while for consumers to adjust to it. Consumers would wonder why they would need to pay 25c/mile just to use autonomy when they have already purchased the care outright. The answer is that an unlimited autonomous driving license would cost over $200k, so it is cheaper to pay per mile. It's a bit like asking why do I have to pay $9/month. Because a lifetime subscription would cost $2500. So the transition to transportation as a service (TaaS ) impacts how cars are sold for private ownership.

private you can use the tesla app, for commercial there would need to be an extended app(license) which combine all owned cars with multi-user customer database. Would think this would have to be a completely other setup and way more advanced? Just make the private one unsuitable for commercial use?
 
Low gas prices didn't help Leaf sales and the low range EVs will remain marginalized until such time gas prices are back to $3.50 or more. No one foresaw the collapse of gas prices. Unfortunate it came at a time when EVs were barely trying to get a foot hold.

No wonder his enthusiasm is dampened.

So if all your EV has to offer is a chance to save a little gas money, this is what happens. I'm so glad that my Model S offers much more than that. Even if I had to pay more for electricity than I would for gas, it would still be an awesome car to drive. People don't buy performance vehicles, trucks or SUVs to save money on gas. Why should they buy an EV to save money on gas?

So Nissan and others are still stuck in the mindset that EVs are supposed to be some sort of green econo car for people who are willing to sacrifice lifestyle to save the planet and pinch a few pennies at the pump. While we can admire those who are willing to sacrifice for the planet, they are but too small of a consumer segment to make much of a difference in the auto industry. Bring out an electric truck that puts the F-150 to shame, and you change the course of the whole industry. Come out with a LEAF that is hardly better than a Versa, and practically nothing changes.
 
Moderator knuckle-rapper
When too many of you post too much about too-focused a non-ST topic....

Sweep to follow later - say good-bye to your Uber-musings. Back to the stock prices, gents. And ladies.
 
Moderator knuckle-rapper
When too many of you post too much about too-focused a non-ST topic....

Sweep to follow later - say good-bye to your Uber-musings. Back to the stock prices, gents. And ladies.

thanks, :) long due reminder

...if stock somehow go down with oil ($20) to $180, would anyone agree that turning some stocks into jan18 200 calls might be smart? Wondering about selling 10% of my stocks and buy a couple of call options instead? I cant imagine this To be anything than real smart... Even when a jan18 200 call option cost $50?

But i have only had real bad luck with call options so far..:-( So maybe not..?
 
thanks, :) long due reminder

...if stock somehow go down with oil ($20) to $180, would anyone agree that turning some stocks into jan18 200 calls might be smart? Wondering about selling 10% of my stocks and buy a couple of call options instead? I cant imagine this To be anything than real smart... Even when a jan18 200 call option cost $50?

But i have only had real bad luck with call options so far..:-( So maybe not..?

It sounds like a great idea, but it's all about your risk appetite. I did something similar on nearer term calls (earnings play) and lost 100% on the options and missed the timing by two weeks. Are you willing to lose whatever you put in?

I'm struggling with the price action... Stuck in a rut till the earnings call I suppose.
 
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