graphix25
-=electronboy=-
For the curious..
161,088,699 Tesla shares outstanding after SolarCity Merger according to the filings on IR.
161,088,699 Tesla shares outstanding after SolarCity Merger according to the filings on IR.
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FWIW, my lease payments are going to US Bank, lease commencement September 2016.
Most of what I wanted to say about the MS note has already been said, but I'll highlight one thing: for as ridiculous as the December 2018 launch prediction is (based on zero evidence, I mean wtf), I think the most absurdly pessimistic predictions are in the ramp - 60k 3 in 2019 and 130k 3 in 2020.
I'd love to see the projections beyond 2020, but we are talking about a prediction that model 3 volume production will be three or more years late.
Recall the guidance: 500k total cars, with ~350k being model 3, in 2018, increasing to perhaps 1 million by 2020. So volume production is 350k.
If we take the MS numbers out in linear fashion, they aren't calling for 350k model 3 - volume production - until perhaps 2022. That's 4 years later than guidance!
It's fine to think Elon is overly aggressive here, hell, even I think 500k in 2018 is pretty damn unlikely, but these MS projections are bonkers. Tesla has clear demonstrable demand for the product, so this is a clear knock on faith in management and execution.
I'd love to see the projections beyond 2020, but we are talking about a prediction that model 3 volume production will be three or more years late.
Recall the guidance: 500k total cars, with ~350k being model 3, in 2018, increasing to perhaps 1 million by 2020. So volume production is 350k.
If we take the MS numbers out in linear fashion, they aren't calling for 350k model 3 - volume production - until perhaps 2022. That's 4 years later than guidance!
It's fine to think Elon is overly aggressive here, hell, even I think 500k in 2018 is pretty damn unlikely, but these MS projections are bonkers. Tesla has clear demonstrable demand for the product, so this is a clear knock on faith in management and execution.
I just checked with Schwab again. (11 p.m. PST) We now show "cash in lieu" attributed to Tesla. In one account 580 sh. SCTY converted to 63 TSLA and cash in lieu $155.36. Works out to $194.20 Tesla share equivalent. In another account, 94 sh. SCTY converted to 10 TSLA and $66.03 in lieu. Works out to $194.205882.
SCTY RIP.
SCTY RIP.
I worked in china for 7 years. If Tesla puts a factory in china before they've sold 10 million cars and have 5 other factories they are idiots.
The LAST place an innovative company with ground breaking IP (product and/or manufacturing process) should go is china.
That's why I had thought a better option would be South Korea, since they do have some bilateral trade agreement with China.
But I'm guessing it's a weak agreement that China could probably change the rules unilaterally. Especially on something like EVs, which China is targeting as a strategic investment.
Interesting. I got credited a whole share for what should have been two fractional shares. The fractions were pretty small, so maybe that's why. 0.1 share one day, 0.9 share the other day. Fortunately the larger portion was on the lower price day.
All in all, it was an interesting ride in merger-land. My take-away is that I should have bought more SCTY like @AudubonB when it was cheap. Interestingly now my former SCTY shares are both some of my cheapest and most expensive TSLA shares.
The good thing is that since everyone kept asking the share exchange ratios, I was able to correct my original calculation mistake and bought more SCTY to get a nice round number. This ultimately converted to a whole total of TSLAs. Thanks all!
Well, now that SCTY is out of the picture, hopefully the TSLA bulls will no longer be distracted and put some real effort behind it.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Highly unlikely IMO. The SP could possibly be over $300 by then but not due to M3 reveal part 3.
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So for those outside the US who, like me, still don't see their SCTY shares converted, here is a datapoint.
I just called my brokerage and they told me they don't take any manual steps with events like these. They get scripts (from NASDAQ? Tesla?) and they run those and shares get converted automatically. I was told with overseas shares this can take 4-5 days but early next week the latest this should be complete.
I just called my brokerage and they told me they don't take any manual steps with events like these. They get scripts (from NASDAQ? Tesla?) and they run those and shares get converted automatically. I was told with overseas shares this can take 4-5 days but early next week the latest this should be complete.
PaulRocket
Member
PV Magazine Mobil: Sweden plans 60% subsidy for residential batteries
Sweden plans 60% subsidy for residential batteries
Sweden plans 60% subsidy for residential batteries
sundaymorning
Active Member
I am not sure where you are getting your numbers from (referring to the 10 million).. perhaps you were a bit haste and over confident in your "7 years" in China, but this my friend is what I would term a "non-researched based" theory.
Here are some facts you should consider: the #1 car company in the world, Toyota Motors, barely sold 10 million cars in 2015.
Compared to Volkswagen, who sold about 9.5 million cars in 2015.. To break the 10 million mark, one would have to overtake the best selling car company in the world, Toyota..
Despite VW selling only 9.5 million, their Chinese market made up approximately 35-40% of their overall sales.
Before calling anyone "idiots" I would put some more effort into research/fact checking data. If Tesla decides China is next, then they are no idiot. But I assume bears and shorts will retort to such name calling even before cross checking simple data, i.e. "10 million."
Next...
Gerardf
Active Member
Sigh.. Another site (mis-)presenting the MS analysis as 240 --> 50 downgrade.
( Would even be a 240 - 242 upgrade if the starting point chosen was 240)
Crazy and simply misleading.
Tesla Motors - NASDAQ:TSLA - Stock Price, News and Analysis
Someone should inform MS / AJ, a downgrade to 50 makes them look stupid.
I have send an e-mail to Marketbeat with request to correct.
( Would even be a 240 - 242 upgrade if the starting point chosen was 240)
Crazy and simply misleading.
Tesla Motors - NASDAQ:TSLA - Stock Price, News and Analysis
Someone should inform MS / AJ, a downgrade to 50 makes them look stupid.
I have send an e-mail to Marketbeat with request to correct.
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Gerardf
Active Member
Same here at DeGiro(NL). Converted on Tuesday. (I made sure in advance I had no fraction, added at low price for that
)
When Adam Jonas, one of the most bullish Tesla analysts, believes the company won't ship a single Model 3 until the very end of 2018, which is typical Wall Street distrust, then yes, I also think a Model 3 final reveal that also re-affirms both the $35K price and production timeline, not to mention reveals new features, will cause the stock to soar.
My SCTY got converted to TSLA yesterday, ....but man i never purchased TSLA so high
Yes the stock price has been a function of trust of management for a while. Elon has mostly guided correctly but with a slight delay but there are three major things that taint his track record:
1. Model X launch. The car was never ready but it was launched anyway, but even at the launch date it was delayed a lot compared to the original date. This has a perfect explanation of course that they wanted to focus on S. Ideally they probably wanted to delay X even longer but could not do that. The ramp was never bad though, it was just that it was released to consumers too early before it was ready similar to beta release of software. The launch actually went faster than for other auto makers from hand built to steady state.
2. Powerwall of the hook demand comment and then cancel the product. I don't know why this happened. It is a bit of a mystery. They most likely realized it was better to wait on GF but why even launch it at the beginning and say the demand was off the hook and then never produce it. This is probably partly why no one seems to set much value on TE.
3. SolarCity. SolarCitys business model seemed to be the wrong way to go starting last year and that of course is a negative for Elon's trustworthiness. Some say the business is more healthy but the whole concept seems to be questionable and rely on net metering and the tax credits to work and the utilities are right about net metering being unfair to other consumers.
I think the share price will go up when more and more people believe Elon and the bull story but not before that.
I am very surprised it did not even go up after last quarter so obviously more things are needed.
I think the next push up would be better visibility of SolarCity finances and business model and also when we get even closer to Model 3 launch. Predicting one year delay is not going to work if it is just a few months left to the deadline unless they believe they are total liars.
I think we will see it getting close to ATH second part of 2017 if macro and the market does not turn south in a major way.
Well... I'll admit that my phrasing was in poor taste. But if you expect the Chinese to respect IP or not try to take advantage of having a factory in china in some way you are kidding yourself. There's a reason the only type of business that can operate a wholely owned foreign factory in china is EV manufacturers. Same reason so many companies are coming to the Us from china clearly with government financial backing. They are trying to get ahead in the same.
So my 10,000,000 (total, not annual) and 5 factories weren't meant to be hard numbers so much as statements suggesting they should really make sure they have solid market penetration before risking the Chinese ripping off what they can.
Also, if the factory does make 1,000,000 cars a year by 2020 and the European factory makes another 1,000,000, and they open one in India at the shipping port like proposed Tesla could easily hit 10,000,000 cars by 2027 which really isn't that far off.
Personally I get the feeling when china started allowing small companies to mess with Apple domestically Elon did a lot of pulling back on China. There was take of a Shanghai factory up until that week, afterwards a statement saying it was not in the works and not a peep about china since.
All that being said I feel pretty sure model 3 will end up being best selling car on an annual basis pretty quickly and I wouldn't put it past Tesla to be making 10mil+ cars a year 10 years from now. By that time they don't need to sell them. They'll just roll out of the factory as a Tesla network taxi
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Thanks. I mis-remembered what Tesla said in the SH letter:
""Our sources of liquidity expanded in the quarter as we were able to increase our borrowing capacity with the addition of a $300 million retail lease financing facility. We were also able to expand our indirect leasing capacity for our customers as our largest partner in the U.S. increased our capacity with them by over 80%. We are also adding a new leasing partner in the fourth quarter of 2016. These increases will allow us to continue to provide attractive and convenient financing sources for our customers."
A bit vague, but 80% capacity expansion may be referring to US Bank.
Maybe this is of interest:
Toyota Makes Breakthrough Battery Discovery, Hopes To Increase EV Range By 15%
Toyota Makes Breakthrough Battery Discovery, Hopes To Increase EV Range By 15%
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