Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

It's not calculated when you add solar; it's calculated when you replace roof. Also, they said all-in the cost will be <= concrete tile I'm assuming, so Tesla Roof total cost to install <= ( total cost of installing concrete at $4.5/sqft material cost + whatever labor.) That's not necessarily $8/sqft "just in material cost", although I don't know the labor breakdown.

Did they specifically say concrete roof? Do you know which panels Solarcity uses? I couldn't find their solar panel supplier on their website. If you can find cost of Panasonic/Solarcity panels online, it'll be interesting. $4.50/sq ft seems very cheap, considering what I found so far.

Edit: Answering my own question. Panasonic panels are 325W instead of 250W usual. 50 pcs (bulk price) is $21000. That is $420 a panel; $23.33 a sq ft.
Panasonic (50pcs) HIT Power VBN325SA16 325W Mono BLK/WHT Solar Panel

 

[Xpert]

It's not calculated when you add solar; it's calculated when you replace roof. Also, they said all-in the cost will be <= concrete tile I'm assuming, so $8/sqft is double the material cost.

Not unexpected some bears would try to compare a whole solar roof vs adding a few solar panels and then decided the entire roof being too expensive.
As someone with an aging roof, I can't wait for Tesla to open up the solar roof order page. I had always wanted normal tile roof but hated its weight, now the solar roof is definitely a no brainer, if it is comparably priced. Did elon mean comparable before or after tax rebate?

 

[Ulmo]

Did they specifically say concrete roof? Do you know which panels Solarcity uses? I couldn't find their solar panel supplier on their website. If you can find cost of Panasonic/Solarcity panels online, it'll be interesting. $4.50/sq ft seems very cheap, considering what I found so far.

No, I'm just looking at the same sources you are, and from what Elon said is likely, I thought that probably matches concrete on that list. Remember, these are not solar panels; they are solar shingles. They are being engineered differently. The cost of a solar panel is different. I don't know if that makes it more or less expensive. But I'm going by what Elon announced as very likely today.

We are going to still have to find out what the whole system will cost, put together, weatherized, tested, and warrantied, manufactured at scale, and installed.

Not unexpected some bears would try to compare a whole solar roof vs adding a few solar panels and then decided the entire roof being too expensive.
As someone with an aging roof, I can't wait for Tesla to open up the solar roof order page. I had always wanted normal tile roof but hated its weight, now the solar roof is definitely a no brainer, if it is comparably priced. Did Elon mean comparable before or after tax rebate?

In answer to someone's question about disappearance of ITC, Elon said hopefully with Tesla Roof being less expensive than traditional roofs, that won't matter. So, without rebate.

Left unanswered today was if Tesla's traditional solar panels will be less expensive than competitors' traditional solar panels, and what the added value propositions for a lot of people will pencil out to when it comes time for them to get something, and a (roof solar panel) retrofit is a better fit for their situation.

Since Tesla will be first to market with a solar roof product that will actually be manufactured and shipped and installed in quantity (rather than swept under the rug or not really done right), they get that first in market advantage. They can reinvest that profit into R&D to stay competitive with other competitors that will rise up into the same marketplace that Tesla will create (which by now Tesla is good at doing, since they seem to keep creating marketplaces for new product types). However, at some point, some competitor will have a nice product. The question is whether or not Tesla's product will (a) still be quality and (b) still be cost competitive, and if Tesla plays their cards right (gets this product to market soon), then they can have a piece of that pie, and continue to integrate it with storage and transportation.

Both bolt and model 3 can coexist, even with 500k of each car annually. What would be problematic is increasing demand for a bolt which would take away from regular ICE sales at GM dealers. That is probably another reason that gm limits the bolt, they would destroy their own product line.

As an environmentalist, this annoys me; GM & Ford (and all future auto manufacturing companies) should make a nice looking good quality nice to drive EV that replaces their ICE sales intentionally, and at which they make money (on their EV), like Tesla is doing. Maybe when we can 3D print our cars, none of this will matter. BUT, this floundering by competitors is a great assistance to Tesla. Although the ZEV programs are bad for Tesla, they do reveal that the competition to Tesla is still lackluster at best.

 

[Xpert]

No, I'm just looking at the same sources you are, and from what Elon said, I thought that probably matches concrete on that list. Remember, these are not solar panels; they are solar shingles. They are being engineered differently. The cost of a solar panel is different. I don't know if that makes it more or less expensive. But I'm going by what Elon announced today, not by backtracking and doing somersaults and twisting myself into pretzels trying to look at it upside down backwards and sideways with different materials and different applications.

In answer to someone's question about disappearance of ITC, Elon said hopefully with Tesla Roof being less expensive than traditional roofs, that won't matter. So, without rebate.

Left unanswered today was if Tesla's traditional solar panels will be less expensive than competitors' traditional solar panels, and what the added value propositions for a lot of people will pencil out to when it comes time for them to get something.

If without rebate, this will be YUGE. I think he also mentioned they will roll out most popular roof types first, wondering what would that be?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Did they specifically say concrete roof? Do you know which panels Solarcity uses? I couldn't find their solar panel supplier on their website. If you can find cost of Panasonic/Solarcity panels online, it'll be interesting. $4.50/sq ft seems very cheap, considering what I found so far.

Edit: Answering my own question. Panasonic panels are 325W instead of 250W usual. 50 pcs (bulk price) is $21000. That is $420 a panel; $23.33 a sq ft.
Panasonic (50pcs) HIT Power VBN325SA16 325W Mono BLK/WHT Solar Panel

I thought someone else would point out the flaw, but looks like no one will.

You can't take $8-$12 / sq ft of solar panels and apply that as a baseline cost to the solar roof, because you didn't first consider that solar panels are assembled from individual solar cells:

That would be like buying a battery pack to disassemble the cells and making a new battery product from that. Not a first principles approach.

If you take the individual solar cells (that are cut from silicon ingots and doped and etched to have the photovoltaic properties) and put them directly into the roof tiles that Elon demonstrated in the presentation a few weeks ago, you'd save a HUGE amount of cost. Obviously, it's not going to be $1 / cell, but it won't be anywhere near $8 either. I would guess ~$4 / sq ft for glass tile + solar cell, since it's supposed to be comparable to roof tiles (which are $2-$4 / sq ft): Learn how much it costs to Install or Replace a Tile Roof.

 

[sundaymorning]

Both bolt and model 3 can coexist, even with 500k of each car annually. What would be problematic is increasing demand for a bolt which would take away from regular ICE sales at GM dealers. That is probably another reason that gm limits the bolt, they would destroy their own product line.

I remember when Tesla delayed the X, this forum was filled with shorts spreading FUD with quotes like "pipe dream", even BoB Lutz joined in on the fun by providing his 30 years of automotive expertise, stating that "those falcon wing doors will never work.."

Being a level headed bull we all know both car companies ( with the 3 & bolt) can coexist; just in the way that Apple and all the other little guys can coexist.. a buyer would absolutely need to be drunk, high and born with extremely bad taste to settle for a Bolt when the 3 is just around the corner. Let's forget about the boxcar econombum exterior, have you seen the interior?

 

[RobStark]

 

[Krugerrand]

I think he also mentioned they will roll out most popular roof types first, wondering what would that be?

I'd assume most popular based on orders?

 

[Ulmo]

I just spent some time on Google Earth, about half an hour.

Here's what I found:

My area, in Northern California, is mostly asphalt shingle. The neighborhood I grew up in is 99% asphalt shingle, and it used to be 100% wood shake (original construction), but those were replaced with asphalt due to fire concerns and cost, and one (1) home out of 200 had clay tile for about 15-20 years, and I think they replaced it with concrete tile.

I checked a few areas in Palo Alto and Los Altos, California, and they were both asphalt.

Portland, Oregon is mostly asphalt shingle.

Beverly Hills is all clay tile and other slate/concrete things.

Hawthorne (home to SpaceX, but otherwise a ghetto area near Compton) is half and half clay tile and asphalt, in one neighborhood, and in another, 100% asphalt.

Various places I zoomed into Europe looked like scenes from World War II movies: concrete barriers, concrete walls, concrete towers. Concrete power poles! What a depressing area! Chasms and caves and walls and canyons of concrete everywhere. Little tiny houses. What a miserable depressing place to live. But, 100% of roofs were clay tile or some type of concrete or slate tile.

I did zoom into one mobile home district that had metal roofs. (Ugh. Talk about crappy markets.)

===

So, generally speaking, there are lots of areas that have roofs that Tesla Roof will be extremely competitive: better looking, lower cost, longer lasting, easier to install, etc.. And, plus, they also generate electricity.

What remains to be seen is how their product will compete with asphalt shingle.

Do they have a huge market? Yes.

===

Will it be cost competitive with asphalt shingle? I am not a roofing professional, so I have no idea what the general costs of roofs are. Very old homeowners with lots of homes would be best at this; some have already posted here earlier today. But for my reference using a made-up 2,010 sq ft roof, I'm going to run some numbers:

Concrete Tile Roof Costs - 2016 Concrete Tile Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com 2,010 sq ft, Builder Grade, middle labor, common shape, zip 95060: $13,566-$18,983 .. I averaged the logs and used as exponent to 10, and got $15,848, which at 50 years is $317/year for the roof. We can expect Tesla Roof to be that cost according to Elon.

Clay Tile Roof Costs - 2016 Clay Tile Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com with same roof and we see that clay tile costs $22,408 - $31,598, with $26,576 in the middle or $531/year if it lasts 50 years. Whoa! $317/year vs $531/year is way different, concrete vs clay. Since there is lots of clay down in southern California, let's find out what Elon is thinking.

Asphalt Shingle Roof Costs - 2016 Asphalt Shingle Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com for same roof shows $5,669 - $7,817, or around $6,800, which is $272/year assuming 25 years.

Roofing Calc - Estimate your Roofing Costs - RoofingCalc.com for nearly identical roof mid price is $8,407 for 30 year asphalt shingles ($280/year), and $9,397 for 50 year asphalt shingles, or $187/year. It doesn't localize it.

It also gave slate price of $37K. It had no concrete or clay tile.

Slate Roof Guide: Cost, Pros & Cons for 2,010sqft roof high end material $57,807, which is $289/year for 200 years.

We don't know the claims vs. reality of the various types of shingles. They claim 50-100 years for slate, but they say it can last "centuries". They claim 30-50 years for asphalt, but most people say they last less time. They say around 50 years for clay tile, but the only people where I grew up who had clay tile had it for less than 2 decades.

Maybe this industry is ready for cleanup. But what I can tell is that the prices are all over the place.

So, the price ranges:
Asphalt $187/year - $280/year (assuming manufacturer claims that most people say are falsely optimistic, so probably more expensive)
Slate high-end $289/year (200 years)
Concrete builder-grade $317/year (50 years)
Slate architect-grade $350/year (150 years)
Slate builder-grade $370/year (100 years)
Clay builder-grade $531/year (50 years)

''Hard slate will last anywhere from 75 to 200 years, while soft slate will last only 50 to 125 years,'' he said, adding that as a result, a homeowner trying to decide whether to repair, restore or replace a slate roof should first determine whether the existing slate is hard or soft. Aug 6, 2000

So, I don't know how much hard slate costs. At 200 years, the cost is pretty competitive with nearly everything (assuming it is $37K (bad assumption), it's the cheapest one), but if you say clay lasts 75 years and slate only 100, suddenly slate is the MOST expensive. If I choose most expensive slate on that web site, it says $52,541. If that lasts 150 years, that's $350/year.

I'm baffled. One thing I noticed is that a long-term total-cost-of-ownership person will fall down the funnel of looking at slate (which is what any long-term thinking visionary with tens of billions of dollars would naturally do (Elon)), while the basic cheap install is at the other end of the scale, asphalt, and has a completely different capital cost structure compared to the rest of them, and is also pretty prevalent in many USA West Coast areas. Clay tile is pretty expensive, and may be very cost competitive with solar roof, but it lasts a long time so doesn't come up for replacement soon, and it is only in Southern California, wealthy areas, and Europe.

Since asphalt roofs don't last that long, they will come up for replacement soon, and there is probably a large market for them right now. However, it will be difficult to break into that market if the cost of the roof is 3x the prior roof that was put on for the same home, and no one else in the neighborhood has that type of roof, so you'd stick out like a sore thumb.

Homes around here have inflated from $250K to $1M in 40 years (all in 2016 dollars), so looking at it that way, what might be inexpensive and a good investment for a $1M home buyer would probably look insanely expensive to a $250K home buyer (remember: same home). I think it has a lot to do with which neighborhood you're in, what everyone else is getting, and how much you expect a roof to cost and how much you have to pay for it. If you already have clay, slate, or concrete, you will probably be very happy getting Tesla Roof, and while there are a lot of roofs like that in California, it's not everyone.

 

[mmd]

Looks like the solar roofing tiles have existed for a while. Here is a 2005 article talking about how big companies are jumping on the bandwagon of BIPV. Many of these companies are no more (SRS technologies, Applied solar). Let's hope it finally takes off.

SOLAR PANEL ROOF TILES

... Fortunately, electronics companies have seen the light, and realized the market potential for aesthetically appealing solar panels that can be integrated into the roof of one’s house. Finally, there are now quite a few aesthetically appealing brands of BIPV, (or Building Integrated Photovoltaics) out in the marketplace today.

Sunslates, made by Atlantic Energy Systems are photovoltaic cells which can be mounted to traditional slate roofing tiles and can be networked alongside each other in horizontal strings of 24. Due to their roots as regular roofing tile, installation is relatively straight forward and can be accomplished by any trained roofer & electrician. Furthermore, Sunslates work well in both new building developments and re-roofing applications, as they require minimal “roof penetration” for running wires to the inverter.

Bigger companies like General Electric, PowerLight, and Sharp have all jumped on the BIPV bandwagon as well. Sharp is currently the biggest manufacturer in the world of integrated solar roofing panels. Compared to Sunslates, Sharp’s new solar roofing modules are bigger, longer, and instead of snapping onto regular roofing tile, they replace roof tile. Sharp’s BIPV lay flat on the rooftop, interlocking smoothly with standard roof tiles. They are compatible with most shapes and sizes of roof tiles used in new residential construction, with one module replacing five standard concrete tiles.

So now that you know how easy and stylish it can now be to revamp your house for solar power, what are you waiting for? ...

 

[Matias]

Did Elon actually say that a Tesla solar roof might end up lower cost than a new 'normal' roof ?

I am pretty sure he did, but simply unbelievable. Wow !

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

 

[tander]

No offense meant, but we've yet to see improvements anywhere in a system, trickle down into lower insurance rates in any industry. Health insurance is probably the best example of this, but also with Tesla auto on a smaller scale the last 3-4yrs.

Yeah no offense taken. It might be because Tesla so far has produced pretty expensive cars in small quantities. As they get into cheaper higher quantity models it seems like the improvements from self-driving could be big enough that lower rates would be warranted. If you can say that X car gets into 90% fewer accidents and 95% fewer major accidents that seems like it'd be hard to ignore, kind of like non-smokers pay more for health insurance.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

Makes sense to me. The same way it makes sense that SpaceX can make rockets for cheaper than anyone else on the planet...it's called finding the inefficiencies in the manufacturing of the product and logistics and getting rid of them. Vertically integrating the whole process, cutting out middle men, optimizing production, etc... Voila, massive reduction in costs.

 

[Ulmo]

No clay listed. Considering clay is the predominant type of roof that I think Tesla Roof might be going after, that above graph is ... well, I don't know what it means. But, the asphalt section is useful, at least.

This research has been extremely frustrating, because absolutely everyone excludes at least one type of roofing, and inserts at least one type of weirdo roofing. For instance, I found a report that talks about "bituminous" roof, but when I look up "bituminous", it talks about coal for burning. Finally, "bituminous roof" is tar-like. Are they talking about tar roofs? That's flat roof. But, they don't actually say that. (By the way, I used to manage a property with tar roof, and the tar was always covered with something to protect it from sun, i.e., gravel, so when you think tar, don't expect to see tar unless you're actually watching work on it. (This was supremely annoying: whenever the gravel bunched up and left a bald spot on the tar, you had to go sweep it back evenly again, to protect the tar from damage.))

---

Ok, found a pie chart that seems halfway believable, so now I'm suspect it's self-confirmation bias:

Western Roofing Commercial Market Survey (2006):

Keeping with the theme that they keep messing with the names, here at least "Fiberglass Shingles" is what I read somewhere else is what they put in asphalt shingles, so that's probably the same darn thing. Now that I know they mean tar by "bitumen", that's flat roofs. I grew up with Wood Shingles/Shake.

Adding Cementious, Slate, Clay and Concrete, I get 32.8%; I assume this will be easy for Tesla Roof to penetrate. This says "market share". Is that roof area, or dollars?

 

[Xpert]

I just spent some time on Google Earth, about half an hour.

Here's what I found:

My area, in Northern California, is mostly asphalt shingle. The neighborhood I grew up in is 99% asphalt shingle, and it used to be 100% wood shake (original construction), but those were replaced with asphalt due to fire concerns and cost, and one (1) home out of 200 had clay tile for about 15-20 years, and I think they replaced it with concrete tile.

I checked a few areas in Palo Alto and Los Altos, California, and they were both asphalt.

Portland, Oregon is mostly asphalt shingle.

Beverly Hills is all clay tile and other slate/concrete things.

Hawthorne (home to SpaceX, but otherwise a ghetto area near Compton) is half and half clay tile and asphalt, in one neighborhood, and in another, 100% asphalt.

Various places I zoomed into Europe looked like scenes from World War II movies: concrete barriers, concrete walls, concrete towers. Concrete power poles! What a depressing area! Chasms and caves and walls and canyons of concrete everywhere. Little tiny houses. What a miserable depressing place to live. But, 100% of roofs were clay tile or some type of concrete or slate tile.

I did zoom into one mobile home district that had metal roofs. (Ugh. Talk about crappy markets.)

===

So, generally speaking, there are lots of areas that have roofs that Tesla Roof will be extremely competitive: better looking, lower cost, longer lasting, easier to install, etc.. And, plus, they also generate electricity.

What remains to be seen is how their product will compete with asphalt shingle.

Do they have a huge market? Yes.

===

Will it be cost competitive with asphalt shingle? I am not a roofing professional, so I have no idea what the general costs of roofs are. Very old homeowners with lots of homes would be best at this; some have already posted here earlier today. But for my reference using a made-up 2,010 sq ft roof, I'm going to run some numbers:

Concrete Tile Roof Costs - 2016 Concrete Tile Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com 2,010 sq ft, Builder Grade, middle labor, common shape, zip 95060: $13,566-$18,983 .. I averaged the logs and used as exponent to 10, and got $15,848, which at 50 years is $317/year for the roof. We can expect Tesla Roof to be that cost according to Elon.

Clay Tile Roof Costs - 2016 Clay Tile Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com with same roof and we see that clay tile costs $22,408 - $31,598, with $26,576 in the middle or $531/year if it lasts 50 years. Whoa! $317/year vs $531/year is way different, concrete vs clay. Since there is lots of clay down in southern California, let's find out what Elon is thinking.

Asphalt Shingle Roof Costs - 2016 Asphalt Shingle Roof Prices, Options and Installation Cost Estimates for Your Area - Homewyse.com for same roof shows $5,669 - $7,817, or around $6,800, which is $272/year assuming 25 years.

Roofing Calc - Estimate your Roofing Costs - RoofingCalc.com for nearly identical roof mid price is $8,407 for 30 year asphalt shingles ($280/year), and $9,397 for 50 year asphalt shingles, or $187/year. It doesn't localize it.

It also gave slate price of $37K. It had no concrete or clay tile.

Slate Roof Guide: Cost, Pros & Cons for 2,010sqft roof high end material $57,807, which is $289/year for 200 years.

We don't know the claims vs. reality of the various types of shingles. They claim 50-100 years for slate, but they say it can last "centuries". They claim 30-50 years for asphalt, but most people say they last less time. They say around 50 years for clay tile, but the only people where I grew up who had clay tile had it for less than 2 decades.

Maybe this industry is ready for cleanup. But what I can tell is that the prices are all over the place.

So, the price ranges:
Asphalt $187/year - $280/year (assuming manufacturer claims that most people say are falsely optimistic, so probably more expensive)
Slate high-end $289/year (200 years)
Concrete builder-grade $317/year (50 years)
Slate architect-grade $350/year (150 years)
Slate builder-grade $370/year (100 years)
Clay builder-grade $531/year (50 years)

''Hard slate will last anywhere from 75 to 200 years, while soft slate will last only 50 to 125 years,'' he said, adding that as a result, a homeowner trying to decide whether to repair, restore or replace a slate roof should first determine whether the existing slate is hard or soft. Aug 6, 2000

So, I don't know how much hard slate costs. At 200 years, the cost is pretty competitive with nearly everything (assuming it is $37K (bad assumption), it's the cheapest one), but if you say clay lasts 75 years and slate only 100, suddenly slate is the MOST expensive. If I choose most expensive slate on that web site, it says $52,541. If that lasts 150 years, that's $350/year.

I'm baffled. One thing I noticed is that a long-term total-cost-of-ownership person will fall down the funnel of looking at slate (which is what any long-term thinking visionary with tens of billions of dollars would naturally do (Elon)), while the basic cheap install is at the other end of the scale, asphalt, and has a completely different capital cost structure compared to the rest of them, and is also pretty prevalent in many USA West Coast areas. Clay tile is pretty expensive, and may be very cost competitive with solar roof, but it lasts a long time so doesn't come up for replacement soon, and it is only in Southern California, wealthy areas, and Europe.

Since asphalt roofs don't last that long, they will come up for replacement soon, and there is probably a large market for them right now. However, it will be difficult to break into that market if the cost of the roof is 3x the prior roof that was put on for the same home, and no one else in the neighborhood has that type of roof, so you'd stick out like a sore thumb.

Homes around here have inflated from $250K to $1M in 40 years (all in 2016 dollars), so looking at it that way, what might be inexpensive and a good investment for a $1M home buyer would probably look insanely expensive to a $250K home buyer (remember: same home). I think it has a lot to do with which neighborhood you're in, what everyone else is getting, and how much you expect a roof to cost and how much you have to pay for it. If you already have clay, slate, or concrete, you will probably be very happy getting Tesla Roof, and while there are a lot of roofs like that in California, it's not everyone.

Good research, thanks for your time. Dont forget at least $1500/yr electricity x 30 yrs = $45k for the roof life minimum. Plus rebates. In addition, solar city can finance your new fancy solar roof with a small monthly payment which becomes within reach to a lot of current asphalt roof residents after electricity is taken into account.

 

[3Victoria]

Most people don't think they will be living in the same house for 30, 50, 200 years, and so tend to go with the cheapest solution, even if it lasts less time. So, replacing asphalt shingles with Tesla-tiles might be a hard sell on the face of it. However, getting a robust rough with solar built in may be a sweet deal even for these people.

 

[Xpert]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

Not the same tile material, scale, profuction process, weight,...cannot compare this way.

 

[racer26]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

I'm unaware of any other glass roofing tiles available.

Seems to me, glass could be cheaper than any traditional roofing materials, so that begs the question why hasn't glass been used as roofing before? That, I don't have a good answer to.

 

[racer26]

Looks like the solar roofing tiles have existed for a while. Here is a 2005 article talking about how big companies are jumping on the bandwagon of BIPV. Many of these companies are no more (SRS technologies, Applied solar). Let's hope it finally takes off.

SOLAR PANEL ROOF TILES

You can't honestly be sitting there, looking at those pictures, and trying to say that you can't see why they failed and Tesla won't staring you in the face, can you?

 

[racer26]

Most people don't think they will be living in the same house for 30, 50, 200 years, and so tend to go with the cheapest solution, even if it lasts less time. So, replacing asphalt shingles with Tesla-tiles might be a hard sell on the face of it. However, getting a robust rough with solar built in may be a sweet deal even for these people.

Only a tough sell if its not cheaper than asphalt shingle.

The graph quoted upthread clearly shows that >60% of roofs are asphalt shingle. I've seen other places citing 75%, and in many areas, its approaching 100% for either cost or climate reasons.

I can't see how you can say "normal" roof (Elon's words) means anything but that.