Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[In2oil]

The only way to play Tsla is selling puts and calls. Otherwise if you get caught in downward spiral like now, at least you can sell calls and recoup some of you loses. Buy hold and pray is so last year. I did a little bit a digging, for of research, I think tesla might be in the short term going close to 100 dollars.

there is some money on puts at 100 dollars in two weeks, that is very scary.

tesla has major problems that will require a lot of cash to fix.. I don't see much upside at the moment. Play on,y with money you can afford to lose, I agree in the long term tesla is likely to be a good bet, however there are so many other opportunities outhere.

this is my two cents.
play with caution
warm regards

 

[theschnell]

It's usually coup d'etat (thailand) and volcano eruptions (indonesia) Earthquakes only happened here and while I was in Nepal. But nepal was more of a quake+avalanche. Europe managed to take me in without any natural disasters though.

... I want to go to this year's shareholder meeting though.

When is that again? Maybe I will be selling after all :wink:

 

[Causalien]

Heh...

Earthquake topples buildings in Taiwan city of Tainan - BBC News

1 in 100 year quake. I am in the epicenter.

Thankfully the industrial area is not affected, automakers can breath a sigh of relief.

 

[brian45011]

They have announced before that they have pilot projects with companies and utilities. So this could be one of those?

It's unclear who is funding the initial cost of the batteries for that project. Presumably Irvine's savings over time will reimburse them: "The larger Irvine Co. project will involve installing the Tesla battery systems at each office building in about the footprint of five parking spaces. Irvine Co. is providing the space but will pay nothing for the service, according to Bluth." Batteries to power O.C. office buildings - LA Times

 

[dakh]

The only way to play Tsla is selling puts and calls. Otherwise if you get caught in downward spiral like now, at least you can sell calls and recoup some of you loses. Buy hold and pray is so last year. I did a little bit a digging, for of research, I think tesla might be in the short term going close to 100 dollars.

there is some money on puts at 100 dollars in two weeks, that is very scary.

tesla has major problems that will require a lot of cash to fix.. I don't see much upside at the moment. Play on,y with money you can afford to lose, I agree in the long term tesla is likely to be a good bet, however there are so many other opportunities outhere.

What major Tesla problems did we learn about since stock was over $100 more?

Selling calls and puts is a different game. Holding TSLA is a game of being there when it breaks out (if it does). If you're not in at that time then TSLA is just another trading stock and there's no point in talking about fundamentals, just tech and sentiment.

 

[McMuggets]

The only way to play Tsla is selling puts and calls. Otherwise if you get caught in downward spiral like now, at least you can sell calls and recoup some of you loses. Buy hold and pray is so last year. I did a little bit a digging, for of research, I think tesla might be in the short term going close to 100 dollars.

there is some money on puts at 100 dollars in two weeks, that is very scary.

tesla has major problems that will require a lot of cash to fix.. I don't see much upside at the moment. Play on,y with money you can afford to lose, I agree in the long term tesla is likely to be a good bet, however there are so many other opportunities outhere.

this is my two cents.
play with caution
warm regards

I agree with you for short term, which makes sense because this is the short term thread after all. However, I've got a long time horizon on this being far from retirement age, and can wait out TSLA with a relatively good cost basis IMO. Buy and hold is so long term thread, but the action posts are all in this short term thread. More excitement here and news!

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla at $120 would be a dream, let alone $100 lol. It'll be such a no brained to investors/institutions that I highly doubt it'll touch either of those numbers. But hey, anything can happen right?

 

[Sudre]

Just want to say FINALLY!

I have been lurking around forever. I have also been wanting to get back in on TSLA since I sold my shares to buy my 2013 Model S. Today I finally had the cash setup and picked up my first round of 100 shares. I'll be watching your posts carefully. I plan to add up to 300 more shares. I have a feeling (just a gut) that shorts are playing games since the market is being vulnerable. It's funny how fast the price leveled out today after shorts stopped having the ability to buy.

I find it odd that Elon has not "played a card". I think it's because the card is either Q4 is better than expected or guidance and/or Q1 is going to be outstanding.

I also think the shorts are going to continue to play with the price up to ER.

 

[sundaymorning]

Just want to say FINALLY!

I hope you'll be profitable from the bat. Your guts and instincts are all that you can depend on, drown out the noise when the mood is down and don't get too excited when you're up. Monday will likely be an up day unless we get something drastic over the weekend like the beginning of January. Hopefully the mood will reverse itself and scare off shorts to set them up for a momentum swing into earnings.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I hope you'll be profitable from the bat. Your guts and instincts are all that you can depend on, drown out the noise when the mood is down and don't get too excited when you're up. Monday will likely be an up day unless we get something drastic over the weekend like the beginning of January. Hopefully the mood will reverse itself and scare off shorts to set them up for a momentum swing into earnings.

... hopefully ...?
Really? Did you check the charts recently? They are a gift for all the bears out there.
I would be careful and hope that we do not see something like 25% down after ER next week. Just because this is the stock market. Has nothing to do with the company. But please check all the broken charts and the massive selling action during the last weeks. Honestly, have we ever seen this with TSLA before? Market participants like to sell of some stock, that's it. The reasons are not so important. Money is evaporating and does not care for the reason!

 

[sundaymorning]

... hopefully ...?
Really? Did you check the charts recently?

Theres two sides to this trade. The sellers are screaming I want to get out; while buyers see an opportunity. Did you see the reversal on downward pressure today after shorts were prevented from further buying? That same rule will apply Monday, just letting you know... as for charts, I don't believe in any unicorn, head and shoulders single or double dip theories. I buy on opportunity and hold long when the story hasn't changed.

 

[eloder]

Am i right to be worried for wallstreet? My concern is that their eps est is +0.08 and i am pretty sure we will get -0.20 to -0.30

I'm definitely worried, because there is no way they'll hit +0.08 in Q4.

I'm holding on no matter what, but if that's the case then there may be some further short term slaughter, without any other outstanding news in the ER.

 

[mmd]

I have been quite bearish since the Model X re-reveal on Sep 29th. Today I finished covering all my negative bets, and went long. Also holding some calls now, in the red.

After this tide of negative notes, I think there are 2 possibilities for ER day:
1) These analysts got heads up from Tesla, and really know some bad news is coming, like severely reduced delivery guidance for 2016. I give it 20% chance.
2) The bar has been lowered, so the earnings report can just fly over that bar.

If only I knew for sure which one it is..

 

[tinm]

[ On a side note, the speed with which this thread is growing relative to last year's version of this thread is remarkable. Here we are on page 400, nearly 4000 responses, and it's only Feb 5th. For the 2015 version of the Short Term TSLA thread, it took until March 27th to reach page 400 and 4000 responses. And now back to your regularly scheduled thread. ]

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm definitely worried, because there is no way they'll hit +0.08 in Q4.

I'm holding on no matter what, but if that's the case then there may be some further short term slaughter, without any other outstanding news in the ER.

How do you get "no way" they will hit +0.08? Are you assuming lower margin? Are you assuming a massive SG&A uptick? I mean +0.08 looks about right based on 5500 more Model S being delivered. Obviously non-GAAP but that is what they always use.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I have been quite bearish since the Model X re-reveal on Sep 29th. Today I finished covering all my negative bets, and went long. Also holding some calls now, in the red.

After this tide of negative notes, I think there are 2 possibilities for ER day:
1) These analysts got heads up from Tesla, and really know some bad news is coming, like severely reduced delivery guidance for 2016. I give it 20% chance.
2) The bar has been lowered, so the earnings report can just fly over that bar.

If only I knew for sure which one it is..

The biggest task for the next days is to develop a plan for ER.
Given the recent SP action I could imagine there might be a really big move during the days following the ER next week!
The losses of the past are gone, more important is to look into the future to try to do better, either on the short term bearish or bullish side!

 

[sundaymorning]

How do you get "no way" they will hit +0.08? Are you assuming lower margin? Are you assuming a massive SG&A uptick? I mean +0.08 looks about right based on 5500 more Model S being delivered. Obviously non-GAAP but that is what they always use.

What if they hit +0.05 or +.025? I still see that as positive at these levels. Just give me some good guidance, updates on 3 and a semi guarantee on gigafactory coming online for powerwall soon and I'll be happy.

 

[AlMc]

What if they hit +0.05 or +.025? I still see that as positive at these levels. Just give me some good guidance, updates on 3 and a semi guarantee on gigafactory coming online for powerwall soon and I'll be happy.

Playing 'devil's advocate': What happens to the thesis if you get -.08 and guidance that is softer than you would like? LNKD had excellent ER but a softer guidance than the street wanted and got toasted.

I admit EM is a master of good guidance/a good CC but TM has missed (slightly) on guided numbers the last two years so do you believe the 'street' will believe his guidance without question for 2016?

 

[pGo]

I have been quite bearish since the Model X re-reveal on Sep 29th. Today I finished covering all my negative bets, and went long. Also holding some calls now, in the red.

After this tide of negative notes, I think there are 2 possibilities for ER day:
1) These analysts got heads up from Tesla, and really know some bad news is coming, like severely reduced delivery guidance for 2016. I give it 20% chance.
2) The bar has been lowered, so the earnings report can just fly over that bar.

If only I knew for sure which one it is..

You're one of the smartest who has been consistently right in the past few quarters.. Hopefully you are listened seriously from here on..

 

[sundaymorning]

Playing 'devil's advocate': What happens to the thesis if you get -.08 and guidance that is softer than you would like? LNKD had excellent ER but a softer guidance than the street wanted and got toasted.

I admit EM is a master of good guidance/a good CC but TM has missed (slightly) on guided numbers the last two years so do you believe the 'street' will believe his guidance without question for 2016?

Question for you and I doubt most of us here can answer this without looking at the LNKDin charts, we are quick to use negative sentiments to soothe ourselves without observing the entire playing field. So here's the question: what was LNKDin stock trading at prior to the drop? To save everyone here the trouble, the last 30 days LNkedin was trading in the ballpark of approximately $200-$225 before taking the beating it did today on guidance. While Tesla on the otherhand was in the $210 range the past 30 days..

Due to the recent violent drop, I am persuaded to think that the negativity has already been priced in. The market sees the lower side of 50-52k estimates, combines that with the X and macros, then you get the over-reaction presently. Just like the release of previous q. delivery numbers, Tesla was punished then came CC that reinforced the 50-52k deliveries and we get an immediate spike of about $25. To me, yes there are risks, but it gets lower as the price decreases and vice versa.. again my judgement is that Tesla needs to reinforce strength in guidance with 72-75k for 2016 for in order to fight "softness" that LNKDin was punished for. The market is forward looking.. that's why we have a stock market. The past is done, and is reflected in the outrageous sale price.

Also, on a side note, the downgrade in guidance implies that LNKDin will only grow 15% in 2017 and 10% in 2018. Now compare that with Tesla's 40% growth and 100% higher earnings of about $7.5 billion vs $3.5 billion from LNKDin for 2016. (Being conservative here folks).

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