I hate it when this forum starts to sound like the average place on the internet where people´s personal fights make up most of the posts. Now even the people I respect(ed) most here start joining in 
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* Not actually driverless.
"Uber’s Pittsburgh fleet, which will be supervised by humans in the driver’s seat...The two companies signed a pact earlier this year to spend $300 million to develop a fully autonomous car that will be ready for the road by 2021."
Elon, I'm sure will do the right thing at all times.
SCTY management, not so much. Musk does not have as much control in SCTY as he does in Tesla until after this merger is done, but the fact that leadership seems to be doing a significant change to their old business practices makes me believe that Elon's vision will take complete control of SCTY.
So yes, this event is a singular turning moment in my perception of the Tesla-SCTY deal and its prospects going forward.
I feel like a good part of the solarcity deal comes down to whether or now you think a PV and battery display in Tesla stores will appeal to the people there. I'm optimistic about it, it seems like there would be a lot of crossover between the type of people interested in tesla EV's and solar.
I am aware that Eletrek (sp?) has reported room for three cameras with three different fields of view. But this prompts my speculation: what if the breakthrough Elon talks about is stereoscopic vision with very high resolution and analysis? Is this a substitute for lidar?
Admittedly, I'm way out of my technical depth here.
Just speculation.
I am new to following Tesla, as I have just started building a position in the stock in the last few months, and am too cheap to buy their cars, which I covet. I have enjoyed learning everything I can about the company, and think I may be a little too excited about their prospects to really be making rational investment decisions. I have just recently discovered these forums and have been enjoying reading them. I mostly agree with the prevailing bullish thinking on this forum. Here is my 2 cents on a couple minor points. I look forward to following this forum.
1. I think the " ICE dealers make all their money on service" bullish argument is a total red herring that I have seen in many places. This may have been true at some point in the past, but modern ICE powertrains are very reliable during the period when people are likely to be bringing them to the dealer. In terms of non powertrain problems, BEV's should have just as many of those on average as ICE cars. I don't think oil changes are a major profit center for car dealers, other than getting people into to dealership to sell them other stuff. There are plenty of reasons dealerships are horrible, but I don't think the service center revenue is really a big advantage. At some point in the future, the service thing could be more on an issue in a fully autonomous car for hire, high use, millage world, where electric would probably shine.
2. I think too much time is spent focusing on competition with Ford and GM cars. I feel that these companies spiritually gave up on cars decades ago, have been on "autopilot" ever since. They have such a brand image problem at this point that they could come out with the worlds best car by far (Not likely) and I still don't think it would sell that great because of the inferior brand image. I feel people are dramatically underestimating the value of the brand that Tesla is creating. For now I think all the focus should be on the German and Japanese companies, who at least have a chance of competing in cars if they were to get their act together. My hope, and the time I think it really gets real for the domestic companies is that they will get the batteries cheap enough, that when they come out with the truck it is much more Ford Raptor killer, than aerodynamic El Camino reboot. If they could get the batteries cheap enough to not have to worry about aerodynamics, offload tires, etc, the domestic companies will be done. Why not drive around in huge trucks if they could be powered with renewable/cheap energy, and they could park themselves? It is going to be great! I can't wait.
1. I think the " ICE dealers make all their money on service" bullish argument is a total red herring that I have seen in many places. This may have been true at some point in the past, but modern ICE powertrains are very reliable during the period when people are likely to be bringing them to the dealer. In terms of non powertrain problems, BEV's should have just as many of those on average as ICE cars. I don't think oil changes are a major profit center for car dealers, other than getting people into to dealership to sell them other stuff. There are plenty of reasons dealerships are horrible, but I don't think the service center revenue is really a big advantage. At some point in the future, the service thing could be more on an issue in a fully autonomous car for hire, high use, millage world, where electric would probably shine.
2. I think too much time is spent focusing on competition with Ford and GM cars. I feel that these companies spiritually gave up on cars decades ago, have been on "autopilot" ever since. They have such a brand image problem at this point that they could come out with the worlds best car by far (Not likely) and I still don't think it would sell that great because of the inferior brand image. I feel people are dramatically underestimating the value of the brand that Tesla is creating. For now I think all the focus should be on the German and Japanese companies, who at least have a chance of competing in cars if they were to get their act together. My hope, and the time I think it really gets real for the domestic companies is that they will get the batteries cheap enough, that when they come out with the truck it is much more Ford Raptor killer, than aerodynamic El Camino reboot. If they could get the batteries cheap enough to not have to worry about aerodynamics, offload tires, etc, the domestic companies will be done. Why not drive around in huge trucks if they could be powered with renewable/cheap energy, and they could park themselves? It is going to be great! I can't wait.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Elon is opposed to Lidar. Elon wants to use multiple radars around the car (along with 3 forward cameras)
I know. but in theory could such number crunching to determine, say, the exact distance of that particular stop sign, and compare with the location of an approaching car to determine if it is slowing or not, using only two or more cameras to give the Tesla information similar to what we perceive. My understanding is that lidar is using light the way radar works. Why not incorporate that into a visual field similar to ours when we can measure depth and motions so much better with two eyes rather than one when we were merely psyclops (joke).
HahaWhen your post ended here, I was going to add:
... event horizon.
But too late. Missed it by THAT MUCH.
darn phones!I'm not sure he's opposed to lidar, but more so lidar is expensive, doesn't do well in rain/snow/fog, and he doesn't think it's necessary.
Your point remains though
With three cameras of differing fields, couldn't this with the appropriate software (and perhaps cloud computing) be a substitute for lidar within the various fields of vision? No rotating, expensive gizmos to get a 360 degree "paint?" Certainly VR technology could be applied for this purpose, but in reverse.
When the merger is complete, Tesla will hire and train new people to handle SolarCity related operations. Many jobs at SolarCity will become redundant by definition. This allows SolarCity to significantly reduce near term costs. When the merger is complete, SolarCity panels will be sold in every Tesla store and every Tesla store rep will also be educating people about SolarCity.
Not to mention the logistics costs associated with managing and monitoring systems. This will make it possible for Tesla to create the perfect 'Smart Home.'
Heck, maybe Tesla is secretly planning to work with Apple to integrate full HomeKit functionality?
This level of system integration only makes sense if Tesla and SolarCity become one company. Otherwise there are far too many redundant employees and logistics and maintenance costs.
Not to mention the logistics costs associated with managing and monitoring systems. This will make it possible for Tesla to create the perfect 'Smart Home.'
Heck, maybe Tesla is secretly planning to work with Apple to integrate full HomeKit functionality?
This level of system integration only makes sense if Tesla and SolarCity become one company. Otherwise there are far too many redundant employees and logistics and maintenance costs.
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Just another amateur here: No, I think more than one perspective point is needed for 3D vision, not just various zoom-ins from the same vantage. And light gets clouded in, well, clouds, snow etc. Now, if there is some way to combine a picture from visual and radar, that might be something. But it seems more complicated.
racer26
Active Member
The reason GM, Ford, and Nissan get so much of the vitriol here, is that they are the closest competitors today. Honda and Toyota are hung up on HFCVs and don't seem interested in making good BEVs.
I tend to agree that both Ford and GM have huge brand image issues that many of the Japanese brands don't have.
I tend to agree that both Ford and GM have huge brand image issues that many of the Japanese brands don't have.
2virgule5
Member
Time will add the extra dimension needed to map the environment with just the radars. As the car moves and if the refresh rate is high enough, software will be able to give visualization not unlike lidar but with cheaper sensors and less interference from rain or sand. Elon stated as much is some recent tweets.
STARR X
Member
It would seem states where Tesla can't sell cars would be a great place to have a Tesla Energy store. Maybe have a car in the showroom as a prop.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Bob Lutz On Tesla Motors 20 Years From Now
Car And Driver: "Will Bob Lutz exist 20 years from now?"
Tesla: "As it is presently, no."
Car And Driver: "Will Bob Lutz exist 20 years from now?"
Tesla: "As it is presently, no."
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
SingleContractI believe that I can officially declare that there won't be a squeeze triggered by shorts being forced to return their shares due to the merger, but if anyone else wants to double or triple check please do it!
Background it's obvious to me that the major institutions are buying shares so that they can vote without calling in their shares. If anyone wants to know how I figured this out let me know and I'll reply eventually. That made me think that this might be a legal requirement, so I called TD Ameritrade and asked "if I sell Tesla short, and the owner of the shares wants them returned to vote on the merger, can the shares I sold short be legally recalled?"
The man I talked to checked with me, to be sure he understood my question, then put me on hold while he checked with corporate governance. When he returned to the line he said "that's impossible".
I said "legally impossible"?
He said "yes".
Some further conclusions (mine) below. Discussion is welcome, particularly advice on what to do with our 50 March $380's!
1. A substantial part of the recent strength of the Tesla SP is due to institutions buying shares so they can vote, rather than any underlying strength in the stock.
2. Between now and the record date any catalysts could produce a bigger than expected result, possibly even a squeeze, due to the fact that the number of shares available to purchase is very low. OTOH I believe that due to Tesla's expected high OpEx and CapEx plus unfounded skepticism surrounding the M3 ramp and the SCTY merger reduce the chances of a large surge, and make the chances of a substantial squeeze very unlikely.
3. After the record date I believe that the institutions will sell the shares that were purchased in order to vote, possibly making this a good time to buy puts.
Chart for a Single Contract of a March$380 Strike, Paid $65 Each:
Background it's obvious to me that the major institutions are buying shares so that they can vote without calling in their shares. If anyone wants to know how I figured this out let me know and I'll reply eventually. That made me think that this might be a legal requirement, so I called TD Ameritrade and asked "if I sell Tesla short, and the owner of the shares wants them returned to vote on the merger, can the shares I sold short be legally recalled?"
The man I talked to checked with me, to be sure he understood my question, then put me on hold while he checked with corporate governance. When he returned to the line he said "that's impossible".
I said "legally impossible"?
He said "yes".
Some further conclusions (mine) below. Discussion is welcome, particularly advice on what to do with our 50 March $380's!
1. A substantial part of the recent strength of the Tesla SP is due to institutions buying shares so they can vote, rather than any underlying strength in the stock.
2. Between now and the record date any catalysts could produce a bigger than expected result, possibly even a squeeze, due to the fact that the number of shares available to purchase is very low. OTOH I believe that due to Tesla's expected high OpEx and CapEx plus unfounded skepticism surrounding the M3 ramp and the SCTY merger reduce the chances of a large surge, and make the chances of a substantial squeeze very unlikely.
3. After the record date I believe that the institutions will sell the shares that were purchased in order to vote, possibly making this a good time to buy puts.
Chart for a Single Contract of a March$380 Strike, Paid $65 Each:
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Gerardf
Active Member
Welcome to the forum
IMHO you are underestimating a few factors.
There are a lot of thing in an EV that can not fail, as they are simply not IN an EV. These add up to many parts. To name some, an EV does not have an exhaust, that will get hot and rust. It does not have oil, oilfilers and airfilters that often need replacement. Less usage of the brakes. These are al, items that come up in the first years of ownership. ICE dealers do make go money on these, and would have to lose that easy regular income.
You do mention that when we have autonomous / car sharing, EVs do have an advantage, however ICE engines and turbos DO fail, or result in expensive repairs JUST when the warranty runs out.
It is no competition, a relatively cheap electromotor with no moving parts, or a complex ICE with 1.000 plus parts that is expensive to repair IF things go wrong and that daily heats up to high temparatures and high rpm of moving metal parts... Also, EV have no transmission.. A gearbox repair can easily add up, as many have experienced themselves.
Tesla expects the EV powertrains to last for 1 Mega mile. And should it fail then, replacement is easy and relatively cheap. Electromoters can often be repaired. Actually the problems Tesla initially had were mainly easy and cheap fixes, like a resonating wire (the infamous hum). These were cheap to fix, and Tesla gained invaluable experience with analysing and fixing these.
Next to risking losing out on easy regular income, the ICE dealer will have to invest in new equipment, knowledge and training. And for what result, to sell cars INSTEAD of the usual ICE with guaranteed regular income.
Some statistics say that car dealers rely for 70 % of profit (or more) on parts and repair. I am sure some here have those statistics at hand.
And one more factor.. Dealers will realize That their added value In the while chain is much lower. It is easier for car manufacurors to cut them out when regular service visits are not needed. So they give up power, and that will result in lower margins sooner or later.
So an ICE dealer has a lot to lose, and basically nothing to gain when he sells an EV instead of an ICE. And in order to be able to do that, he needs to invest a lot.
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