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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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What is misleading about it?
"you had to pay upfront before you saw the car."
You expect us to believe, that you called and asked them to find you a CPO to your specifications, and they said you could buy the one you bought but only if you paid weeks ahead of time, sight unseen?
I think the car was in high demand and you paid before you saw the car so you wouldn't lose it, and probably paid shortly before you actually picked it up. Just a guess....
 
"you had to pay upfront before you saw the car."
You expect us to believe, that you called and asked them to find you a CPO to your specifications, and they said you could buy the one you bought but only if you paid weeks ahead of time, sight unseen?
I think the car was in high demand and you paid before you saw the car so you wouldn't lose it, and probably paid shortly before you actually picked it up. Just a guess....

So, based on assumptions, you state that I was intentionally misleading. If I am misleading, it is by accident. I would not do so intentionally.

Here is how the process worked for me:

I found a CPO I liked on the Tesla Model S preowned website. I paid the $1000 deposit online with a credit card the day I found the CPO. I then waited for contact by Tesla.

During the process, I asked for pictures. My adviser was kind enough to take some pictures when it arrived in AZ and send them to me. I asked if I could see the car, she said 'no, not until the refurbishment is complete'. When it was completed, I asked to see the car and drive it, she said I had to pay for the car, first.

That's how it went for me. I can't speak for everyone.
 
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Cars going to Texas and other non dealership states must be paid in full before transit. Buyers are also getting finance requests to pay for the car while it is in production. Many eagerly do. If a loan is agreed upon, usually there are thirty days to execute it. Some buyers have made first month payments before seeing a car. By having a bunch in transit and those conditions and possibly using some ABL money against cars in transit, you get a big Customer Deposit number. Big enough to include $110,000 paid for Model X cars that sat on lots in first week of July waiting for delivery, but fully paid for. After the Model X bubble is sold off in Q3 the deposits should come down unless they hold another set in transit again end of Q3. What should be done is no money from customer deposits should include paid for Cars. It should only represent a deposit for a car not yet paid for. Remember, Model X signatures destined for Europe, 600+ of them, were $40,000 each and many may have been asked to pay fully prior to early July delivery. It is a very loose number.

With 5000 cars in transit, I expect 1000 were fully paid for, if not more. Many Model X over $100k. 1000 is roughly $100 million alone.
 
... After the Model X bubble is sold off in Q3 the deposits should come down unless they hold another set in transit again end of Q3. What should be done is no money from customer deposits should include paid for Cars. It should only represent a deposit for a car not yet paid for.
Or just put out a table with number of deposits on each line of product, compared qtr over qtr. A company that manages so much autopilot data can easily manage to find the total reservation count for each line. That is, if it wanted to convey the true state of its business.
 
I'm very pleasantly surprised that the stock took such a minimal hit despite so much badness in numbers and shockingly no Q3 guidance at all. No delivery guidance, no revenues, no eps, no nothing... Wow, how is Tesla able to get away like that?

Thank shorters. They have held down TSLA so low, it can not go any lower.

Have you noticed the unusually low AH volume? It is around 0.5M. Daily voulme is around 4 to 5M. Normally, the AH trade volume on the earnings day for any high beta stock is more than daily volume, sometimes an order of magnitude more. Today it is only about 1/10th. An order of magnitude smaller. Tomorrow should be very interesting.
 
I'm very pleasantly surprised that the stock took such a minimal hit despite so much badness in numbers and shockingly no Q3 guidance at all. No delivery guidance, no revenues, no eps, no nothing... Wow, how is Tesla able to get away like that?

I can only speak for myself, but I suspect it's because the long term faithful won't give up unless Elon does.
 
I'm very pleasantly surprised that the stock took such a minimal hit despite so much badness in numbers and shockingly no Q3 guidance at all. No delivery guidance, no revenues, no eps, no nothing... Wow, how is Tesla able to get away like that?
It's probably best for Tesla to give as little guidance as they can get away with. Suprises are usually positive, unless specific guidance had been given in advance.
 
I'm very pleasantly surprised that the stock took such a minimal hit despite so much badness in numbers and shockingly no Q3 guidance at all. No delivery guidance, no revenues, no eps, no nothing... Wow, how is Tesla able to get away like that?
Guidance is 50,000 for the rest of the year. That was told plenty of times.
In the earnings call they said Q4 and possibly Q3 will be profitable if you exclude M3 capex.
 
Ive seen this with a few stocks over the years. A series of blunders or bad news, scares away the nervous nellies leaving the rusted on investors behind. The withdrawl of these investors reduces volatility as less people are jumping in and out, with less people jumping in and out day-traders start to lose interest as there is less volitality to trade on - so they move on too removing volatility further. You eventually get to a point that bad news doesnt seem to make the stock drop as much as it used to.

All purely anecdotal of course, and I have probably grossly overestimated the effect of retail investors on a stock like TSLA!

Having said all that, I dont think ER was a bad news story - Ive seen a lot of positive reporting - surprisingly positive.
 
Our GAAP cash flow from operations during the quarter was $150 million, which included the receipt of Model 3 deposits
o_O
Likely 150,000 Model 3 reservations by midnight 3/31/16. Model 3 Reservation Tally

If 373,000 reservations at 6/30/16, the Model 3 deposits added about $223 million to cash from operations during the quarter. So excluding the likely effect of Model 3 deposits:

Cash from Operations: -$73 million

Cash from Core Operations:+$70 million
 
Ive seen this with a few stocks over the years. A series of blunders or bad news, scares away the nervous nellies leaving the rusted on investors behind. The withdrawl of these investors reduces volatility as less people are jumping in and out, with less people jumping in and out day-traders start to lose interest as there is less volitality to trade on - so they move on too removing volatility further. You eventually get to a point that bad news doesnt seem to make the stock drop as much as it used to.

All purely anecdotal of course, and I have probably grossly overestimated the effect of retail investors on a stock like TSLA!

Having said all that, I dont think ER was a bad news story - Ive seen a lot of positive reporting - surprisingly positive.
What are the surprisingly positive things you noticed in today's ER?
 
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Likely 150,000 Model 3 reservations by midnight 3/31/16. Model 3 Reservation Tally

If 373,000 reservations at 6/30/16, the Model 3 deposits added about $223 million to cash from operations during the quarter. So excluding the likely effect of Model 3 deposits:

Cash from Operations: -$73 million

Cash from Core Operations:+$70 million
From Q1 letter, page 3: Q1 2016 Tesla Shareholder Letter
The quarter end cash balance does not include any meaningful cash flow from Model 3 reservations. Almost all Model 3 reservations received on the last day of Q1 are recorded as receivables, pending cash receipt from various credit card banks. April cash receipts for vehicles in transit at quarter end plus Model 3 reservation deposits allowed us to pay back $350 million on the asset based line.
 
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It's not like that. Customer deposit includes the money customer paid in full while waiting for delivery. By end of Q2, there were record 5000 cars in transit, so the customer paid in full money should be no less than Q1. But if you compare the Q1 customer deposit which doesn't include M3 deposit, it's 391M. As you calculated, excluding M3, the Q2 customer deposit is only 280M.

There were at least $115 million of Model 3 deposits in the Q1 balance. The reservation tally show 115,000 as of 8:30 pm PDT on 3/31/16. More importantly, the 10Q reported 36% of the $318 million balance in Accounts Receivable was attributable to un-remitted amounts from credit card companies (and that doesn't count amounts paid with checks which would have been accrued as cash rather than AR on the asset side of the balance sheet.) It is likely about $150 million of Model 3 deposits was in the $391 million balance at 3/31/16.
 
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