Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dennis]

To be clear, I never once heard it referred to as the Panasonic Gigafactory. But Chelsea was on a different tour than I was.

Our tour guide made in clear when we were in the Panasonic portion of the Gigafactory and when we crossed into the Tesla area. I actually took this as a positive - this is not a typical supplier/vendor relationship but a partnership with
employees, equipment and intellectual property co-located in the same facility.

 

[madodel]

Oh, no worries. I was replying really to many posts. It just started with your question.

To be clear, I never once heard it referred to as the Panasonic Gigafactory. But Chelsea was on a different tour than I was. Her tour also had one very unprofessional employee that I understand was mocking some of the more inebriated customers.

Her experience was different than mine, but it was still her experience. Of course she also experienced that sometimes Roadster owners ARE still treated better (a discussion we were having on the way over). And I'll leave it at that.

I was on the very first tour and all the employees were great, friendly, professional and open to questions from the crowd. We saw no Panasonic employees, only Tesla employees though they mentioned how well the Panasonic and Tesla staff worked together. But because of the large number of people the tours were still going on after Elon's presentation, and by then the alcohol had been flowing for over 4 hours and quite a few people were tipsy.

Were you in the VIP room? I had hoped to at least get an up close view of the 3, but could only see it from outside and we were hurried along from the tour to the event tent.

 

[Papafox]

This recent gigafactory aerial photo from Electrek is eye-opening:
Article
I heard the number 14% as the percentage of the final gigafactory that is standing at this point. So, if 3 buildings constitutes 14%, then 21 buildings would be needed to make 100%. Take a look at the photo, and it looks like 8 buildings are either up right now or underway. Eight buildings would imply about 38% of the gigafactory, which could deliver 57 gwh of batteries if you use 150 gwh as the output for the whole, completed gigafactory. Please check my math, but it looks to my eye like work is presently underway on enough of the gigafactory to produce 57 gwh of batteries.

My major takeaway is that the 400,000+ reservations that TSLA originally received for Model 3 gave Panasonic enough encouragement that they are willing to partner with Tesla on this massive an expansion at this time. We better hope Model 3 is close to being on time, because the batteries are coming. The output certainly will be there for massive Tesla Energy growth as well.

 

[FANGO]

Seriously, if you guys have decided Chelsea is the enemy, things have gotten WAY out of hand. She is, and has been, one of the maybe top three most passionate and public EV voices, period. And yes that includes Elon and JB.

I don't know how many times I have to say this: Same.Team.

 

[EinSV]

According to @ecarfan, there is a reliable report of 160,000 Powerwall reservations in the US alone:

US Tesla Powerwall reservations at 160,000

So $500M in reservations for US PW alone.

Any guesses on whether we'll hear TE 2017 projections and/or confirmed PW reservations during Q2 earnings call, or will we need to wait until later this year or early 2017? Seems like after GF events some analyst will likely ask ....

 

[yesla]

Necessity is the mother of invention. Therefore, Elon is so needy.

 

[JRP3]

I have always appreciated Chelsea's EV activism, but I have also felt she has had a slightly more negative view of Tesla than was warranted. Clearly I'm not the only one with that impression.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

What to expect from Tesla earnings

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 54 cents a share in the second quarter, which would be wider than a loss of 48 cents a share in the year-ago period.

Much more info in the linked article.

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Gigafactory tour roundup and tidbits: ‘This is the coolest factory in the world’

Tesla expects to hit the $100/kWh mark at or before 2020 for batteries which is close to the inflection point at which it begins costs less to build an electric powertrain than ICE even without subsidies or the savings of electricity vs. gas.

IMO before 2020 means the end of 2017 or 2018 at the latest.

Under $190 now.

Conservative prediction GF savings of 30% in by the end of 2017 and 50% by the end of 2020.

Elon stated that the main reason that the increased output is important is to reduce costs. Completed GF expected to require about 10k employees vs 6.5k original plan. That's a 50% increase in employees for 3x the production. Plus the massively reduced capital costs.

Clearly the 30-50 numbers need be updated! Let's try $185 for the current cost, 40% for the GF reductions and 5% for cell chemistry improvements. Gets us to $185 X .55 = $101.75. I believe all of those figures are conservative , particularly their current cost which I made a convincing case is under $170 per kWh. Five percent is also conservative for a moderate increase over about two years.

 

[electracity]

I suggest you watch the latter part of his Stockholders Meeting presentation. It's the first time he spoke publicly about the spatial and linear inefficiencies in manufacturing that he observed will camping out on the Model X production line. He also talks about applying engineering talent to the manufacturing process and the huge efficiency and productivity gains possible. These are now key themes for Elon and as such represent a focus for the company that wasn't there before.

Applying engineering talent to manufacturing? Wow, someone should have thought of that before 2016. I hope Toyota is inspired by Musk's manufacturing vision.

What Tesla actually needs to do is to focus on manufacturing cars that are good enough quality to make Consumer Reports recommended list.

 

[MitchJi]

What to expect from Tesla earnings

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 54 cents a share in the second quarter, which would be wider than a loss of 48 cents a share in the year-ago period.

Much more info in the linked article.

Two big questions:
Is this the quarter that we finally put the MX production issues behind us?

How many Powerwalls and Power packs have been produced and delivered in Q2? The picture Mario posted looked like they are currently producing substantial quantities.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I took Chelsea as my +1.

I don't always agree with her comments (including some from the last night), but she has been a passionate EV supporter and the EV community is better off as a result.

Let's all lighten up. Not everyone is going to agree or follow the same path. It's okay to disagree, but casting dispersion on a valued member of the community is not okay, imo.

Let me just first say that I'm a relative newcomer to the EV community and I am unfamiliar with Chelsea Sexton or her connection to the EV world.

I read the linked Twitter exchange and it's pretty obvious to me that she doesn't like Tesla at all. Her choice of words makes that clear:

Examples:
"Super-clear ownership, & it's not Tesla"
"sad ugly of Tesla Gigafactory event"

Now I don't believe there really is an "EV community" any more than there is an "ICE community". Honda and Subaru and BMW people go at each other all the time on the various message boards I read. I see it here at TMC too -- plenty of people have trashed Nissan and GM over the years for their EVs. If members here bash Nissan and GM, then I don't see that we have the right to complain when she bashes Tesla.

BUT, I'm not going to call her a valued member of this community here at TMC.

To be clear, I never once heard it referred to as the Panasonic Gigafactory. But Chelsea was on a different tour than I was. Her tour also had one very unprofessional employee that I understand was mocking some of the more inebriated customers.

I actually have a big problem with Tesla allowing obviously drunk people into an area with lots of potentially dangerous industrial machines. They are lucky someone didn't run off and injure themselves.

Also, I have observed some bad behavior from customers at Tesla stores. Just because people spend 100k on a car doesn't give them the right to behave inappropriately on company property. I'd want to know the context of the employee's comments.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I took Chelsea as my +1.

I don't always agree with her comments (including some from the last night), but she has been a passionate EV supporter and the EV community is better off as a result.

Let's all lighten up. Not everyone is going to agree or follow the same path. It's okay to disagree, but casting dispersion on a valued member of the community is not okay, imo.

I don't understand how you can call her a "passionate EV supporter" when all she has been doing is bash the company making the biggest EV push. However she is definitely a passionate EV1 supporter since it was her pet project. Not sure that means she's passionate about EVs in general.

 

[MitchJi]

Twitter exchange and it's pretty obvious to me that she doesn't like Tesla at all. Her choice of words makes that clear:

Examples:
"Super-clear ownership, & it's not Tesla"
"sad ugly of Tesla Gigafactory event"

I have no idea what she says about Tesla, Elon etc. But I will say that right now IMO bashing Tesla and Elon is virtually the same thing as bashing EV's and sustainable energy.

I'm not saying that they are perfect, or that they should not be called out for their mistakes.

And can we please get back to discussing TSLA?

 

[bonnie]

Let me just first say that I'm a relative newcomer to the EV community and I am unfamiliar with Chelsea Sexton or her connection to the EV world.

chelsea sexton - Google Search

 

[AlMc]

I have no idea what she says about Tesla, Elon etc. But I will say that right now IMO bashing Tesla and Elon is virtually the same thing as bashing EV's and sustainable energy.

I'm not saying that they are perfect, or that they should not be called out for their mistakes.

And can we please get back to discussing TSLA?

Agree here with Mitch. The news that affects the STSP of TSLA has to do with what people saw and heard from management at the GF party and nothing to do with whom Bonnie chose to bring or how she fits into anyone's definition of the EV community or that person's views on TM, EM or the price of oil on Mars.

 

[bonnie]

Agree here with Mitch. The news that affects the STSP of TSLA has to do with what people saw and heard from management at the GF party and nothing to do with whom Bonnie chose to bring or how she fits into anyone's definition of the EV community or that person's views on TM, EM or the price of oil on Mars.

Wait, what? I don't impact the stock price?

Al!!!

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Gigafactory tour roundup and tidbits: ‘This is the coolest factory in the world’

We’re still hoping that a full video of the Q&A becomes available since there were like 30 cameras recording the whole thing. If so we’ll update.

I don't care about the video but I'd love to be able to listen to the Q & A! Does anyone know if there's an understandable copy of the audio available anywhere? If not can anyone easily fix the audio on the electrek YouTube video?

I tried to listen to it three ways, iPad, iPad with decent headphones and on our mac with good external speakers. Can't understand it.

 

[AlMc]

Wait, what? I don't impact the stock price?

Al!!!

You would have saved yourself a lot of trouble if you just took me instead.
Learn from this mistake Bonnie!!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

And can we please get back to discussing TSLA?

Expectations seem very low for Wednesday's earnings report. However, the delivery miss as well as all the drama with Autopilot has likely been taken into account already by market participants, so I'm expecting minimal changes in stock price over the next few days.