Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

Also possibly of interest:

Elon specifically called it a product plan. Depending on the time horizon and potential profitability of those products, tomorrow could be a good day for us.

 

[MitchJi]

Are you able to share your source?

Source for what, exactly?

It was my own speculation based upon known information.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Also possibly of interest:

Elon specifically called it a product plan. Depending on the time horizon and potential profitability of those products, tomorrow could be a good day for us.

Yep, that is very encouraging. Not that I expect too many specifics or firm dates, but certainly the more concrete the post is (as opposed to a vague "save the world" piece) the better will Wall Street react.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

It also means that the MS-MX packs would have a capacity of about 109 kWh if they merely use the GF produced cells.

110kWh
I'm on record predicting the packs will Go To Eleventy.

 

[MitchJi]

Yep, that is very encouraging. Not that I expect too many specifics or firm dates, but certainly the more concrete the post is (as opposed to a vague "save the world" piece) the better will Wall Street react.

Do you think it will be less specific than the SMP1, "roadster, ... etc."?

 

[racer26]

Do you think it will be less specific than the SMP1, "roadster, ... etc."?

If anything, I expect it will be more specific. Everyone, Elon included, has a much better idea of what is possible today than 10 years ago, and how to be realistic with those aspirations. Remember; 10 years ago when Elon published SMP1, TSLA wasn't publicly traded. Elon has to be aware by now that if he can't convince Wall St that this plan is realistic and realizable on a reasonable timeline, that it will get seen as another distraction from getting Model 3 out the door, and TSLA into bottom line profitability.

 

[jhm]

I am wondering if SolarCity acquisition is imposing invisible boat anchor for TSLA because of all equity offer. Let's say, if TSLA is ought to double from where it is now, for whatever reason, it would imply approximate doubling of SCTY too, before deal closure.

Yes, the two stocks are linked going forward.

 

[MitchJi]

I've got some speculation about Tesla battery cells. The planned 100D MS-MX will, at least for a while (contract with Panasonic) use the 18650 format cells. The larger cells produced at the GF will include "not small, not large, but moderate improvement" due to chemistry.

Sources:
The hacked image of the 100D, from the MS firmware. The quote by Elon.

So I think the GF produced cells will have about an 11% increase due to the cell chemistry plus the 7.5 percent increase in pack capacity b due to the larger format.

Mathematically derived from the 100D information with the statement by Elon. and the cell sizes.

That means(if it's correct) that the MS-MX packs would have about a 19% larger capacity as compared to the MS-MX packs of the same size in length and width, which are the two important demensions.

It also means that the MS-MX packs would have a capacity of about 109 kWh if they merely use the GF produced cells.

Also the number of cells has a huge impact on the pack costs. So think this increases the odds of a version of the M3 with a 300 mile range.

Are you able to share your source?

It all makes sense, but that doesn't mean it's true, hence the use of the word "speculation" .

 

[dandurston]

My guess is the 100D is one of the demand levers that Tesla has available but hasn't needed to pull.

Just like how the 90 replaced the 85, I think Tesla has better chemistry ready (or near ready) but since it's more expensive they won't introduce it until it's needed. This chemistry is probably another 7% improvement, so the 100D might really be a ~97.

I suspect Tesla is using the 60 to sell out Q3, and they'll use the new 100 to sell out Q4. The 60 comes first because it's using cheaper current gen-battery technology before the 100 ushers in the next-gen chemistry.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla replaces their entire lineup of 60/75/90 packs with new 65/80/100 packs sometime around the end of the Q3. If they're hurting for sales they'll do this at no charge (much like when Apple refreshes their lineup), whereas if they are more confident in demand then we might see prices rise a few grand.

 

[dc_h]

But how do we account for the fact that the ELR ended production in February, but according to insideevs.com sales tracker, the ELR recorded 94 sales in June. They take this from the EOM sales release by the OEM. The only explanation would be that GM stockpiled ELR's somewhere and are still shipping to dealers despite production ending months ago which I am not sure is the case. Not trying to start an argument, just saying that IMO, the empirical evidence suggests otherwise in some cases.

edit: maybe insideevs.com uses a different data set to report deliveries? But I always thought it actually reflected models moved off the lot into consumers hands that REPORTING MONTH.

And if this was the case there would be no rationale to the end of months sales push as that car would have already been paid for by the dealer and not benefit the OEM's sales as it would have already been reported.

I believe that financially the cars are sold to the dealers, but not reported as sold in monthly statistics, until they are sold to consumers.

 

[TMSE]

Yes, the two stocks are linked going forward.

I think short squeeze and eventual TSLA SP above 320+ can only happen if both TSLA and SCTY show near zero or positive Non-GAAP EPS.

Elon mentioned before that SCTY can be cash flow positive in 3 to 6 months. If that happens and if Tesla actually delivers ~24K or more in Q3 (which obviously would result in positive EPS), we should see short squeeze, 3 months from now. Untill then, shorts have time to cover or opportunity to propagate more FUD.

 

[flankspeed8]

I believe that financially the cars are sold to the dealers, but not reported as sold in monthly statistics, until they are sold to consumers.

It is precisely these monthly statistics that the OP was talking about and I would agree, but that would be counter to the post from Fortune magazine that contradicts this. But then again, we know what a poor source Fortune can be sometimes.

 

[EinSV]

I think short squeeze and eventual TSLA SP above 320+ can only happen if both TSLA and SCTY show near zero or positive Non-GAAP EPS.

Elon mentioned before that SCTY can be cash flow positive in 3 to 6 months. If that happens and if Tesla actually delivers ~24K or more in Q3 (which obviously would result in positive EPS), we should see short squeeze, 3 months from now. Untill then, shorts have time to cover or opportunity to propagate more FUD.

It's worth keeping in mind that SCTY's market cap is only about 7.5% of TSLA's, so it would be a pretty light "anchor" to use your analogy above. If something positive happens for Tesla it should bring the SCTY price up with it, all things being equal.

 

[Mike Smith]

Interesting that in Musk's tweet from 7 hours ago he referred to it as the 'Tesla (master) product plan'.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think that it's no coincidence that the master plan is being revealed Sunday night. If the main point of the plan was to justify the SCTY purchase, it would have been released after close on Friday as it would probably be short term negative for TSLA. Releasing Sunday night suggests they expect it will be positive for TSLA and want to get the most visibility, so that probably means it will be focusing on products they believe the market will immediately like.

 

[eloder]

I think that it's no coincidence that the master plan is being revealed Sunday night. If the main point of the plan was to justify the SCTY purchase, it would have been released after close on Friday as it would probably be short term negative for TSLA. Releasing Sunday night suggests they expect it will be positive for TSLA and want to get the most visibility, so that probably means it will be focusing on products they believe the market will immediately like.

Honestly, I'll never do a short-term trade on the idea that Musk is trying to engineer the stock price. His words and history suggest that he's not at all concerned about short-term movements.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Do you think it will be less specific than the SMP1, "roadster, ... etc."?

In my mind the 2 ends of the spectrum are
- a mission statement type of "1, become the world's biggest renewable energy solution provider; 2, broaden the Tesla Motors model portfolio; 3,...."
- a specific list of products and times like "1, by 2018 provide turn-key PV+Battery power plant solutions to residential and utility customers up to x MW; 2, by 2018 introduce the Model Y, 2019 Model R, 2020 half entry level EV price once again..."

So his blog post could be between these to ends of the scale. The more specific the better for short term TSLA. the less specific the better for long term TSLA (less risk of missing deadlines...)

 

[Bgarret]

Successful SpaceX launch and successful first stage landing back at LZ1 in Cape Canaveral. Nice to have successes before revealing thenTop Secret Master Plan II.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Successful SpaceX launch and successful first stage landing back at LZ1 in Cape Canaveral. Nice to have successes before revealing thenTop Secret Master Plan II.

That was incredible. Gathered around with the kids to watch. So damn exciting. In Must We Trust.

 

[racer26]

Yep. SpaceX is now 5/7 for landing successfully in 2016 if memory serves.

Alright Elon, time to make with the master plan! Us east coasters have to get to bed.