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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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TSLA held up EXCEPTIONALLY well today compared to the broader market. I was expecting far worse. 190 seems like strong support and I am hoping for strength and consolidation around here before Q2 delivery announcement. This is all with the caveat that the worst of the Brexit Shock is over.

Yeah. Same thoughts here. Didn't expect this strength today Nice to see
 
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More a populist movement demanding that they get the subsidies that they deserve as compensation for being part of the Eurozone.


For a US comparison: The US subsidizes Mississippi continuously. If we stopped doing so, you can bet they'd be agitating to secede so that their new currency would drop and they could sell more exports of cotton or whatever.

But they are getting the subsidies. So there is zero chance of revolt. Anymore than an adult child who lives with his parents "revolting" by threatening to move out.

A devaluation of currencies makes the middle and upper middle class that hold that currency poorer and people at the bottom of the pay scale or looking for a job better off.

If you do it enough rich Spaniards will convert their pesetas to deutchmarks and put them into Swiss bank accounts. Ditto for rich Italians etc.

Continuous devaluations instead of increasing economic competitiveness is a recipe for the third world banana republicanism.
 
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I think the lower monthly utiltiy bill with no fuss no muss, no risk investment to get that lower utility bill is what opened up the home solar market and became a sustainable business model for them.

I looked into solar, including SolarCity, earlier this year.

The best numbers I saw would have reduced my monthly electric cost by about $20. Now, let's say something goes wrong and the system isn't adding energy to the grid for a month. That month, I still have to make a payment to the solar company AND I have to pay a normal electric bill. How many months to make that up in $20 savings per month?

Add to that the added stress and wear on the roof of the house, as well as the added complexity involved in selling the property, how does solar make sense in current market situations?

I'd love to be using solar, if only it made financial sense for me.
 
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Exactly. I am on the list too and haven't even been contacted. The reality is that integrating Powerwalls into all the diverse customer installs is VERY complicated, and requires EXPENSIVE system engineering time, let alone the cost of the actual components.

And Elon has probably just torpedoed short term Powerwalls sales as people sit on the sidelines waiting for that awesome integrated product he alluded to.

I am still trying to digest the implications that a 2 year Solarcity corporate bond is STILL yielding 14% on the markets right now. That is the steal of a century if you think a combined Tesla/Solarcity company will be able to refinance a $500M bond in 2 years...
What does this have anything to do with the 2-3% thst Solarcity got for the capital?

Are you implying institutional investors that bought these bonds from Solarcity that wanted to convert these to stock earlier then currently possible want to put that capital to work somewhere else while the stock price is suppressed right now and market value reflects that need to move that capital?

How does have anything to do with the over $1.1billion raised this year by q1 and the $1.7 bln slated to be raised thru the rest of the year from more than willing investors?

What exactly are you trying to propagate?
 
I bought some more TSLA at 195 and 190 (after exiting SCTY leaps) in the past few days, bringing my average from 208 to 204. My short (and possibly mid) term options are screwed, but at least these shares should provide some long-term comfort. Options are tricky.

To reiterate what I said before, I feel very VERY confident about a Q2 beat. I will once again buy short term options to try and cash in on the delivery numbers. My mistake was in initially buying the short term options too early (literally the day before SCTY). My thinking was that I should get in the options earlier, before the analysts start giving "this will be a beat" notes next week and the beat gets priced in. Now, with attention on Brexit and SCTY, I don't think there will be a big "risk" of a runup next week. Thus, I plan to buy more short term at the money options near the end of next week.

Disclaimer: do your own diligence, definitely don't blindly do what I just said because I'm quite possibly dead wrong.

How is everyone else trading TSLA short term?
 
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I looked into solar, including SolarCity, earlier this year.

The best numbers I saw would have reduced my monthly electric cost by about $20. Now, let's say something goes wrong and the system isn't adding energy to the grid for a month. That month, I still have to make a payment to the solar company AND I have to pay a normal electric bill. How many months to make that up in $20 savings per month?

Add to that the added stress and wear on the roof of the house, as well as the added complexity involved in selling the property, how does solar make sense in current market situations?

I'd love to be using solar, if only it made financial sense for me.
If it doesn't make sense to you to get solar, I say you make the right choice and not get it. What I love about a competitive and fair market place.

Those solar companies have to develop a product that you want. If they don't, they don't get your business.

As far as transfers, I've read Solarcity has done thousands successfully, with mininial problems and think that was one of the points of interest for the rating agencies of which we know that they have given a BBB+ investment grade rating to their ABS as a result.

As far as roof, I've also read that it is warranteed for damage due to poor installation, and since it will be on there potentially for upto 30 years under Solarcity management, I've read they really assess whether your roof is good enough for installation. I've actually read of some cases where Solarcity refuses to install given potential roof problems and this has made potential customers upset that they wouldn't do it. So, it seems they're interests are alligned with yours on the roof damage front.

As far as Solarcity is concerned, if the system doesn't produce, you don't pay your bill so you don't have that solar bill to pay when the electric bill comes. You only pay if it produces which is another seemingly good peace of mind selling point in my opinion.
 
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If it doesn't make sense to you to get solar, I say you make the right choice and not get it. What I love about a competitive and fair market place.

Those solar companies have to develop a product that you want. If they don't, they don't get your business.

As far as transfers, I've read Solarcity has done thousands successfully, with mininial problems and think that was one of the points of interest for the rating agencies of which we know that they have given a BBB+ investment grade rating to their ABS as a result.

As far as roof, I've also read that it is warranteed for damage due to poor installation, and since it will be on there potentially for upto 30 years under Solarcity management, I've read they really assess whether your roof is good enough for installation. I've actually read of some cases where Solarcity refuses to install given potential roof problems and this has made potential customers upset that they wouldn't do it. So, it seems they're interests are alligned with yours on the roof damage front.

As far as Solarcity is concerned, if the system doesn't produce, you don't pay your bill so you don't have that solar bill to pay when the electric bill comes. You only pay if it produces which is another seemingly good peace of mind selling point in my opinion.

As a TSLA stock holder, it concerns me to see Tesla buying SolarCity with their reputation. I own a Model S and I've been very happy with the service I've received from Tesla. Reading the Yelp SolarCity reviews in Phoenix is very concerning. They have a 2 out of 5 star rating on Yelp.

I'm relatively new to investing, so I do not have the deep understanding that many other people have in this thread. I've been reading this thread for weeks with great interest. From a consumer point of view, I'm not comfortable with a Tesla + SolarCity merge because of SolarCity's poor reputation.
 
I'm more interested in what you plan to do going forward over the next couple weeks. Add to position, hold, go into options, etc.?

I don't have anymore free money until the middle of next month, so just holding. It took suspension-gate AND brexit scare AND uncertainty over solar city purchase to get it this low. It's unlikely to get to this level again (fingers crossed), so I'm all in on this buying opportunity.
 
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I'm more interested in what you plan to do going forward over the next couple weeks. Add to position, hold, go into options, etc.?
Bought a couple Sept 210 call options yesterday before brexit :/. Will sit out a couple more trading sessions before pulling trigger on anymore. Been following a group of model x customers on the x thread with early july delivery estimates. If they get get june deliveries i will swiftly pull the trigger
 
As a TSLA stock holder, it concerns me to see Tesla buying SolarCity with their reputation. I own a Model S and I've been very happy with the service I've received from Tesla. Reading the Yelp SolarCity reviews in Phoenix is very concerning. They have a 2 out of 5 star rating on Yelp.

I'm relatively new to investing, so I do not have the deep understanding that many other people have in this thread. I've been reading this thread for weeks with great interest. From a consumer point of view, I'm not comfortable with a Tesla + SolarCity merge because of SolarCity's poor reputation.
I've researched the Yelp reviews issue and found that many of the reviews are done by people that never actually got system from Solarcity in the first place, another issue is that there are competitor done/funded reviews(which relates to the first note of reviews done by people that didn't get a system in the first place.) I think Solarcity also has about 17k-20k systems(as I remember reading) and under 50 Yelp reviews (correct me if I'm not updated on that). So, even with the suspect reviews of quote experiences, that's way less then 1% of entire install base with any negative expletive. I wish we had numbers for how many people they actually go through the proposal process and that number get probably real close to 0% dissat.

I've checked into their better business bureau rating as a better indicator of customer satisfaction, and they have the highest rating a business can get. Also, from personal interaction with Solarcity system owners they are very satisfied with there lease arrangement.

Bottomline, Yelp not a definitive say on quality of solar install. Might try asking or calling them up and do a dry run through on your own. I actually did that myself and found that they were very professional and attentive in my small experience. I was looking into a commercial level project and called contacted others. The best initial experience I received was from these three: Solarcity, sunpower, and rec solar.
 
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I looked into solar, including SolarCity, earlier this year.

The best numbers I saw would have reduced my monthly electric cost by about $20. Now, let's say something goes wrong and the system isn't adding energy to the grid for a month. That month, I still have to make a payment to the solar company AND I have to pay a normal electric bill. How many months to make that up in $20 savings per month?

Add to that the added stress and wear on the roof of the house, as well as the added complexity involved in selling the property, how does solar make sense in current market situations?

I'd love to be using solar, if only it made financial sense for me.
In a year or two panels will be less expensive.

The only reason we have any kind of shot at not destroying the planet is that renewable energy is becoming cheaper than fossil fuels. In other words collectively saving the planet counts for zero. Does that make any sense?

How much money do we need save each month before we do something for the planet?

I said "we" because we have a roof with a significant amount of shade, and I'm waiting for prices to come down, so that it's at least in the ballpark of being cost effective. Ghandh boy eating sugar story.
 
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The analysts have been wrong about every development at Tesla. Almost every analyst has questioned if Elon knows what he is doing every time he has made a major announcement.

1) If you think you know more than Elon and believe Elon doesn't know what he's doing by making an offer to merge Tesla and SolarCity, you have no business owning any Tesla stock.

2) SolarCity is not in financial distress: Chanos is wrong.

3) Tesla merging with SolarCity makes a ton of sense.
A) It allows every Tesla showroom to become a SolarCity store.
B) It allows Tesla to integrate Tesla tech and assets into SolarCity tech and assets.
C) It strengthens SolarCity's financial position.
D) Every SolarCity customer becomes a likely Powerwall buyer and probable Tesla owner.

4) Too many things To list.

Based on the lack of meaningful content in comments on here about the SolarCity merger and the frequency of comments over the past few days, I'm convinced the majority of people on here are only regurgitating the noise being repeated by the media.

Tesla merging with SolarCity makes a lot of sense. Chanos and others who are criticizing it are either taking advantage of the strength of the noise to
try and create panic or are buying/trying to cover into this dip.
 
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