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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I will not say 70 specifically, but I think everyone should expect the stock to fluctuate significantly. "Fluctuate" differs from "rise" in that it goes both up and down.
Norse
Active Member
Asian Stocks going Down alot. And Tesla is Down 4.50% in Frankfurt today, Im expecting alot of cash coming in the next months to invest, wouldnt be bad if it came to 70$. Any suggestion how a little crack would do to Tesla? Other than People in general having less Money to buy cars from?
Need someone to talk me down
Im by far no expert, but have been a long time reader of this forum and value all the insight from the people generous enough to share their wisdom.
I'm never concerned about demand, and when the debate revolves around that, I feel pretty confident in my investment. However, with the predicted losses in the next two quarters, and the last of the promised announcements upcoming, I'm a bit concerned about a big/long drop. I'm still a believer in the long term, but for the short term, I fear there is nowhere to go but down. My theory was stock would drop some this week (I bought a weekly put for a little protection), then rise a little next week in anticipation of Announcment 5,and then begin a long descent back to earth. As a guy who held onto Apple and rode it down from 700 to 400, it makes me concerned not to take a profit and wait for a better reentry point. But as a guy who also sold Apple at 124 only to correct my erroe and buy back in at 185, I also fear divesting myself of a company I really believe in. I'm sure people will say you can't ever go wrong taking profits, and I suppose I could sell half my stake, and keep the other half, but I really would love for someone to convince me that fundamentally, the stock should not drop. I get that no one can predict makret movements, im just talking abouit the company's near term profitability prospects.... Where is luvb when you needd him?!....p.s. Don't you think that fact that Musk did the capital raise now, makes him think it is near its short term apex?.... Would love everyone's insight. Thanks.
Im by far no expert, but have been a long time reader of this forum and value all the insight from the people generous enough to share their wisdom.
I'm never concerned about demand, and when the debate revolves around that, I feel pretty confident in my investment. However, with the predicted losses in the next two quarters, and the last of the promised announcements upcoming, I'm a bit concerned about a big/long drop. I'm still a believer in the long term, but for the short term, I fear there is nowhere to go but down. My theory was stock would drop some this week (I bought a weekly put for a little protection), then rise a little next week in anticipation of Announcment 5,and then begin a long descent back to earth. As a guy who held onto Apple and rode it down from 700 to 400, it makes me concerned not to take a profit and wait for a better reentry point. But as a guy who also sold Apple at 124 only to correct my erroe and buy back in at 185, I also fear divesting myself of a company I really believe in. I'm sure people will say you can't ever go wrong taking profits, and I suppose I could sell half my stake, and keep the other half, but I really would love for someone to convince me that fundamentally, the stock should not drop. I get that no one can predict makret movements, im just talking abouit the company's near term profitability prospects.... Where is luvb when you needd him?!....p.s. Don't you think that fact that Musk did the capital raise now, makes him think it is near its short term apex?.... Would love everyone's insight. Thanks.
@sandart
I think you are asking the right questions, and I have myself been mulling those. I have ended up deciding to stay long. The reasons are (1) I believe that (unlike AAPL 700-->400) it is clear that the stock is going up in the long term and (2) that the coming half year may be more of a sideways movement than drop.
So many news can make us regret trying to time an exit and a re-entry into the stock. For instance:
* News relating to general demand
* News relating to demand in Europe and/or Asia
* News about Model X production or demand
* Unveiling of Gen III design/prototype
* Unexpectedly good news relating to SuperSwapper or similar
* News about the production (volume and/or efficiency)
* Inclusion of TSLA in indices (not sure about this one - have to be profitable for a while)
* Technology break-throughs
* New strategic alliances
* Someone makes an offer the board can't refuse to buy the company
etc. etc.
So I am staying long, willing to weather a possible downturn in the meantime.
I think you are asking the right questions, and I have myself been mulling those. I have ended up deciding to stay long. The reasons are (1) I believe that (unlike AAPL 700-->400) it is clear that the stock is going up in the long term and (2) that the coming half year may be more of a sideways movement than drop.
So many news can make us regret trying to time an exit and a re-entry into the stock. For instance:
* News relating to general demand
* News relating to demand in Europe and/or Asia
* News about Model X production or demand
* Unveiling of Gen III design/prototype
* Unexpectedly good news relating to SuperSwapper or similar
* News about the production (volume and/or efficiency)
* Inclusion of TSLA in indices (not sure about this one - have to be profitable for a while)
* Technology break-throughs
* New strategic alliances
* Someone makes an offer the board can't refuse to buy the company
etc. etc.
So I am staying long, willing to weather a possible downturn in the meantime.
Norse
Active Member
Its Down cause Nikkei is Down 7% and Europe is falling aswell. Everything is probably gonna og Down today.
You have to recognize much of Apple's run to 700 was Wall Street inflating all the numbers. Everything from Gross Margin to Sales. It just got really out of hand. Because it got out of hand, Options trading also got out of hand. I forgot the specific calculation but the Options were holding up Apple price an extra ~$200 or something to that effect and the rest were these ridiculous expectations that analyst's had. Furthermore, the combination of bad press and scrutiny on Apple's cash pile really wound up a lot of people which brought the stock price down even more.
What makes you say the numbers we inflated?
Apple did have and does have amazing sales, margins, etc. PE ratio insanely low. It's always been undervalued because people didn't believe it could keep growing sales. Now with Steve Jobs gone, it really does seem their innovation engine has stalled. No fire in the gut anymore. I'm agast to see Tim Cook flush 100 BILLION dollars down the tubes buying back stock, only to see it not work. Tim Cook must be really confused to see Elon issue new shares and have the stock rise on the news. Apple needs another visionary like Elon. Steve would have considered buying Tesla.
When I say numbers I meant Wall Street was inflating their whisper numbers--expectations. Let me make it clear, I believe Apple is undervalued as it stands. A lot of people are quick to point out Apple Innovation has stalled. I don't think this is the case. Given that they lost their visionary leader it takes time for a shift. A shift in management is probably what is taking so long for the next innovation. You need to realize although Steve was an integral part in the company you have other people there who he groomed and I'd argue equally as good in specific ways.
I don't think Steve would have considered buying Tesla. Google is invested quite heavily in Tesla (no need to explain that one) and Steve was known for driving the same car all these years (a Mercedes SL55 AMG which he leased a new one of the same color and same model every 2 years).
I don't think Steve would have considered buying Tesla. Google is invested quite heavily in Tesla (no need to explain that one) and Steve was known for driving the same car all these years (a Mercedes SL55 AMG which he leased a new one of the same color and same model every 2 years).
The problem with Apple was that it was a victim of its own success. A tech stock with 75%+ growth, zero debt, and sells products that are in high demand should not be trading at a P/E of less than 20. Throughout its run its P/E was way too low for the growth is was putting out. Look at AMZN and NFLX, analysts have no problem defending their stocks prices and lofty P/E's of 0 and 500+ because they are in the growth stage. So 75% yoy growth isnt good enough? Makes no sense. Another problem was that everyone owned the stock so it was inevitable that at some point there would be sellers taking profit and prohibiting the stock from getting to the value it deserved.
ShortSlaver
Member
What Steve did was amazing, no doubt. I tracked and invested in AAPL since the late '90's and was an early fan boy mainly because of OS X, of which I was a beta tester.
Apple was able to parlay a single concept into 3 game changing devices.
The iPod eventually became an iPod touch which became an iPhone which became an iPad. There's nowhere else to go now with that class of device. Well, the iPhone obviously needs some new options like a larger screen. But they have a new interface coming out which will be announced at WWDC this June. Not game changing, but progress.
They also have other things in their pipeline that can only be speculated on. If they can create a new class of device and parlay it again they will be worth over $1,500.00. But these things don't happen overnight. And with the time it has been taking I'm guessing it's pretty special what they're working on.
Google releases "Glass" which is more of a concept than a reality, doesn't really work yet and is something most people will reject. Glasses are not OK. But Wall St. is desperate for anything so the punish AAPL for not having something new.
I have no position in AAPL right now, but might soon. They're a solid company, due for new products and they pay a really nice dividend.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Please move AAPL stock discussion somewhere else. Or delete it from this thread.
True. Apologies for the wild tangent.
To a point more related. I love how the CEO of Chrysler is pulling a Broder about Tesla saying they were the first to repay the American Government. Hopefully the free press intrigues more people and makes the price go up
Thanks, DonPedro and everyone.... Sound reasoning. And my short term predictions are always wrong, so maybe I'll have to do "opposite George"!....
ShortSlaver
Member
Back over $90 and headed north! You have to feel like this stock has stabilized somewhat and far higher than I thought it might. Still, time will tell.
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