You think it's a good level now? I'm waiting for 85... but I might just go in
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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You think it's a good level now? I'm waiting for 85... but I might just go in
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
You won't get any answers with questions like this. If anyone here could answer that question they would not be on this forum answering that question - they would be one of the worlds richest individuals. Predicting short-term market fluctuations is one of the most impossible things in the world - big funds have hundreds of people trying to do this with tons of information available and advanced computer systems and proprietary algorithms etc. And if they're good they might be able to out-do the market by a few points each year...
Note: following the general market obviously, but I mean in general with regards to very short term predictions like that.
It's basically just tracking the overall market.
(edit) Wow, didn't reply quickly enough.
It's above 86 again but like what others have said... It's anybody's guess but I'm thinking it'll close 86 or higher..
Yea I couldn't be bothered. Went all in. Market is consolidating post Ben comments. Normal course of business.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
I'm liking this. I'd love to see it get down to 80, but I don't know if I have the patience or the nerves.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
ShortSlaver
Member
I bought in a bit more today as it dropped to mid-80's.
I'm not sure if I'm being patient or stubborn but it appears 80's to 90's are the new normal for TSLA. I was hoping for a selloff by now to mid-70's but I'm not convinced it's coming. Still packing plenty of cash in case it does drop more, but picked up a bit more in the meantime.
I'm not sure if I'm being patient or stubborn but it appears 80's to 90's are the new normal for TSLA. I was hoping for a selloff by now to mid-70's but I'm not convinced it's coming. Still packing plenty of cash in case it does drop more, but picked up a bit more in the meantime.
Press Release is out. Elon announces loan is repaid in full.
Tesla Repays Department of Energy Loan Nine Years Early | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
Tesla Repays Department of Energy Loan Nine Years Early | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
It's done:
On May 22, 2013, in connection with the closing of the offerings of the Common Stock and Notes, the Company terminated its Loan Arrangement and Reimbursement Agreement, dated as of January 20, 2010, between the Company and the United States Department of Energy (as amended from time to time, the "Arrangement Agreement"), and prepaid in full all amounts due under the two Future Advance Promissory Notes that were issued to the Federal Financing Bank (the "FFB") under the Note Purchase Agreement, dated as of January 20, 2010, between the Company and FFB. The aggregate amount of the prepayment was $451,825,447.07, including a prepayment premium based on prevailing interest rates. Upon the prepayment in full of the obligations to the FFB, two warrants issued to the DOE by the Company pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement to purchase, respectively, up to 3,085,011 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $7.54 per share and up to 5,100 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $8.94 per share, expired unexercised in accordance with their terms.
On May 22, 2013, in connection with the closing of the offerings of the Common Stock and Notes, the Company terminated its Loan Arrangement and Reimbursement Agreement, dated as of January 20, 2010, between the Company and the United States Department of Energy (as amended from time to time, the "Arrangement Agreement"), and prepaid in full all amounts due under the two Future Advance Promissory Notes that were issued to the Federal Financing Bank (the "FFB") under the Note Purchase Agreement, dated as of January 20, 2010, between the Company and FFB. The aggregate amount of the prepayment was $451,825,447.07, including a prepayment premium based on prevailing interest rates. Upon the prepayment in full of the obligations to the FFB, two warrants issued to the DOE by the Company pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement to purchase, respectively, up to 3,085,011 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $7.54 per share and up to 5,100 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $8.94 per share, expired unexercised in accordance with their terms.
Without any news, the stock will just fluctuate going forward. Seemingly random fluctuation, some spillover from general market movements, resistance at various pricelevels and so forth.
We have three announced news items in the short run that could move the stock:
- DOE loan payback seremony (probably small stock price effect, but could be some, especially if it turns out to be a brilliant PR opportunity)
- Supercharger announcement next week(?) (most likely an upward push)
- "Under-the-hood" announcement/demo in 2-3 weeks(?) (could go either way - likely to be a something smart of Elon's that the market won't immediately jump at)
We should definitively not expect some sort of breakthrough announcement (e.g. battery tech), as they would be idiots to raise capital ahead of releasing such news.
The things that really SHOULD move the stock now are (in order of priority):
- Any sign of the strength of demand
- Anything that will generate more demand (this is hard to evaluate, and therefore calling this is the best advantage an investor can find right now)
- Announcements that indicate progress on successful development of attractive Model X and Gen III products
- Anything that indicates that the company is delivering on the guidance of 25% automotive margins in Q4
Unless good news keeps coming, the stock is likely to go sideways in Q3, at least until after the announcement of Q2 results. I think everyone will be nervous regarding how everyone else will react to GAAP losses in Q2 (this was guidance during Q1 earnings). To dampen this potentially negative effect, management may be updating guidance on demand and cost reductions. This may even happen over Twitter ahead of the earnings release, so it will be a hard-to-game situation.
Again, if you believe in Tesla long term, you are likely to be best served by patience through the volatility ahead.
We have three announced news items in the short run that could move the stock:
- DOE loan payback seremony (probably small stock price effect, but could be some, especially if it turns out to be a brilliant PR opportunity)
- Supercharger announcement next week(?) (most likely an upward push)
- "Under-the-hood" announcement/demo in 2-3 weeks(?) (could go either way - likely to be a something smart of Elon's that the market won't immediately jump at)
We should definitively not expect some sort of breakthrough announcement (e.g. battery tech), as they would be idiots to raise capital ahead of releasing such news.
The things that really SHOULD move the stock now are (in order of priority):
- Any sign of the strength of demand
- Anything that will generate more demand (this is hard to evaluate, and therefore calling this is the best advantage an investor can find right now)
- Announcements that indicate progress on successful development of attractive Model X and Gen III products
- Anything that indicates that the company is delivering on the guidance of 25% automotive margins in Q4
Unless good news keeps coming, the stock is likely to go sideways in Q3, at least until after the announcement of Q2 results. I think everyone will be nervous regarding how everyone else will react to GAAP losses in Q2 (this was guidance during Q1 earnings). To dampen this potentially negative effect, management may be updating guidance on demand and cost reductions. This may even happen over Twitter ahead of the earnings release, so it will be a hard-to-game situation.
Again, if you believe in Tesla long term, you are likely to be best served by patience through the volatility ahead.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I am not an expert but to this purpose couldn't it be good to generate more demand to announce a small price reduction of Model S?
Just an hypothesis to know what you guys think about this.
Looking at the after-hours prices, it appears that this was indeed already priced into the market. Not much change in after-hours at all.
Would be a terrible idea. Getting to 25% gross margin is an extremely challenging ambition. Reducing the price 1% cuts the gross margin by 1%, making it even more difficult. I think we should rather expect Tesla to launch additional options that can increase the average sales price per car.
Reducing price to increase demand would also signal weakness. The main reason why I am heavily invested in Tesla is because I have such a belief in the product. If it should turn out that they have a demand problem, that would ruin my whole investment thesis. If they started cutting the price, I would have serious doubts. However, I'm not very worried about that happening.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Actually, cutting the price 1% will probably decrease margin by about 4%, since shaving off the top will only cut in to your margins. (The car costs the same to produce).
Also, why reduce price when people are lining up to buy???
Well, I thought it was evident that I was talking percentage points of margin. But thanks anyway. ;-)
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Raffy, you're supposed to put "my friend" in quotes, as in "a friend of mine" thought it would be a good idea. :wink:
They could, however, discount the Model X, say the first 4000 or so. Wouldn't take the shine off of the S apple.
"My friend" thinks that would be great! See? It works!
But seriously, I put in a low limit buy order this morning (around $82). Thought it might go there while I was driving to work! Just as happy it didn't come close. That support seems to still be there at $85 tho. I think we'll still see $70s I also think we will see $110s. Both in the relatively short term. But in which order? ML
They could, however, discount the Model X, say the first 4000 or so. Wouldn't take the shine off of the S apple.
"My friend" thinks that would be great! See? It works!But seriously, I put in a low limit buy order this morning (around $82). Thought it might go there while I was driving to work! Just as happy it didn't come close. That support seems to still be there at $85 tho. I think we'll still see $70s I also think we will see $110s. Both in the relatively short term. But in which order? ML
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