Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

NVDA premiums are great for this week on both sides. I was surprised that one (of three) put I wrote that was $5 ITM at expiration didn't assign. Was playing the arbitrage game in the last few hours to scrape some extra cash.

100% IV now, not sure I had seen that before.

Going to be fun... I still have 5x -c800/-p900 in play and as of now I let the whole lot expire sell off the shares (net $950) then resell the puts weekly against the 5x Jan 2025 +p900 I'm holding

If the earnings causes it to drop back then more things come in to play, let's see

 

[Max Plaid]

With 100x +P150 in play I would feel the same way too

Actually holding 200x +p150 100x July & 100x Jan -> selling against them weekly so no too concerned about the value, but I did buy them for a reason, which is concern over Tesla, and those concerns, IMO, are playing out, even though the share price doesn't track it for the moment

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seeing quite a few hardcore Tesla Twitter bulls selling some of their positions out of fear of the vote not going Tesla's way and Elon packing up and leaving.

I wonder if some of the big boy funds that own TSLA are intentionally waiting to cast their votes to create some uncertainty and doubt. The closer we get to June 13th and Tesla is still openly trying to get votes, the more panic is going to set in and create a possible selloff leading into June 13th.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Seeing quite a few hardcore Tesla Twitter bulls selling some of their positions out of fear of the vote not going Tesla's way and Elon packing up and leaving.

I wonder if some of the big boy funds that own TSLA are intentionally waiting to cast their votes to create some uncertainty and doubt. The closer we get to June 13th and Tesla is still openly trying to get votes, the more panic is going to set in and create a possible selloff leading into June 13th.

Wall Street doesn't let a good opportunity go to waste. You are right even if this isn't the case they will fabricate sources to point to this way. WIN WIN for the boys.

I haven't sold any CCs for this week as we didn't get the bump we expected. Maybe tomorrow.

 

[BornToFly]

I can now roll my 170CC for next week to end of June 180 for tiny credit. Should I do it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wall Street doesn't let a good opportunity go to waste. You are right even if this isn't the case they will fabricate sources to point to this way. WIN WIN for the boys.

I haven't sold any CCs for this week as we didn't get the bump we expected. Maybe tomorrow.

One thing I think Tesla made a mistake on, and maybe this isn't legally possible, but they should have announced a new pay package that would also get voted, with much higher target's for Elon to hit (like say a 3 trillion dollar valuation) and say that in order for this pay package to go through, Elon's previous pay package needs to voted on and approved.

It would have given clear incentive to shareholders to re-approve the existing pay package and would have given confidence that Elon is fully all in on Tesla getting to a much high market cap.

 

[SO16]

One thing I think Tesla made a mistake on, and maybe this isn't legally possible, but they should have announced a new pay package that would also get voted, with much higher target's for Elon to hit (like say a 3 trillion dollar valuation) and say that in order for this pay package to go through, Elon's previous pay package needs to voted on and approved.

It would have given clear incentive to shareholders to re-approve the existing pay package and would have given confidence that Elon is fully all in on Tesla getting to a much high market cap.

I recall reading a post on here that the board didn’t want to discuss the new pay package at all or even start it while they are still in Delaware. Didn’t want to open themselves up to possible future scrutiny if they can move to TX and then start it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I recall reading a post on here that the board didn’t want to discuss the new pay package at all or even start it while they are still in Delaware. Didn’t want to open themselves up to possible future scrutiny if they can move to TX and then start it.

Makes sense and it logical.

But at the same time, Tesla is playing with fire here in that they're asking disgruntled shareholders to re-approve a pay package without offering a carrot to help those disgruntled shareholders to help swallow their pride.

Again I think it's just in the poorest tastes to deny Elon is his pay package when he nearly doubled the target goal (650 million market cap) and shareholders had plenty of opportunities to sell at a 1 trillion dollar market cap. But when people get disgruntled, they often let emotion take over and make decisions that will actually hurt their investments

But like I said before, it could be that the big funds are just biding their time to vote and they plan on voting in favor, in which case it doesn't matter if the retail vote is disgruntled. Or maybe Tesla is pressing to get as many yes votes as possible to make a statement. I doubt they would have even went forward with this vote if they didn't have support of the majority of the big fund voters.

But still, they're playing with fire that could be a major black swan event

 

[BornToFly]

Over the weekend Elon agreed with a post that if the pay package doesn’t go through, and he doesn’t get 25% control of Tesla, he is taking AI elsewhere. So he won’t leave Tesla, but he will remove and take a potentially significant portion of TSLA’s future value elsewhere. I would think that would trigger a shareholder lawsuit against him, but I’m not a lawyer.

Edit: I’m assuming that post caused the drop today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Over the weekend Elon agreed with a post that if the pay package doesn’t go through, and he doesn’t get 25% control of Tesla, he is taking AI elsewhere. So he won’t leave Tesla, but he will remove and take a potentially significant portion of TSLA’s future value elsewhere. I would think that would trigger a shareholder lawsuit against him, but I’m not a lawyer.

The fear of Elon taking AI elsewhere has quite a bit of FUD attached to it. Could he take the Optimus team with him? Sure. He can't take the actual hardware and progress that's been made. But he can take the minds.

As for FSD, this is where the FUD is. There's simply no way that Elon can take FSD from Tesla at this point. He's even said himself in multiple twitter post where even if he's gone, FSD is "pun intended" on Autopilot at this point. Would be impossible for Elon to recreate it. He would lack the fleet, the data, the capital means, etc...

So it really just comes down to what you think Optimus makes up in terms of valuation for Tesla for yourself. Optimus 10 years from now could add a ton of value. But Tesla succeeding in FSD already puts TSLA in the 1-2 trillion market cap area. So Optimus is great cherry on top, not the cake.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The fear of Elon taking AI elsewhere has quite a bit of FUD attached to it. Could he take the Optimus team with him? Sure. He can't take the actual hardware and progress that's been made. But he can take the minds.

As for FSD, this is where the FUD is. There's simply no way that Elon can take FSD from Tesla at this point. He's even said himself in multiple twitter post where even if he's gone, FSD is "pun intended" on Autopilot at this point. Would be impossible for Elon to recreate it. He would lack the fleet, the data, the capital means, etc...

So it really just comes down to what you think Optimus makes up in terms of valuation for Tesla for yourself. Optimus 10 years from now could add a ton of value. But Tesla succeeding in FSD already puts TSLA in the 1-2 trillion market cap area. So Optimus is great cherry on top, not the cake.

Straying a bit into the weeds here, but I wonder if the data captured by the fleet can be used for Optimus training as well. Or are the use cases too far removed from one another?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Straying a bit into the weeds here, but I wonder if the data captured by the fleet can be used for Optimus training as well. Or are the use cases too far removed from one another?

Will be my only response as to not go too far into the weeds.

But the way I understand it (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), the data captured by the fleet isn't useful but the platform, including the NN's and the hardware, is entirely from FSD. They're essentially using the FSD platform basis and hardware and re-training the NN's with different data.

 

[Knightshade]

Will be my only response as to not go too far into the weeds.

But the way I understand it (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), the data captured by the fleet isn't useful but the platform, including the NN's and the hardware, is entirely from FSD. They're essentially using the FSD platform basis and hardware and re-training the NN's with different data.

yeah and even then the HW and code will need tweaking...for example it needs to be able to measure far more precise distance, and do so much closer to the actual cameras, in order to do fine/close manipulation... versus say stopping a car where you're NEVER going to plan to stop so close to the next car that being "wrong" by half an inch matters... but being half an inch off in human-hands-precision work could be complete failure at the task.

 

[Max Plaid]

I can now roll my 170CC for next week to end of June 180 for tiny credit. Should I do it?

I personally think holding short term short positions through the shareholder week is a tremendous risk, could see huge volatility, which can, of course be an opportunity, but more of a dice-throw as of this moment in time

For my side I have -p170/-c180 strangle for this week, which I'd very much like to expire, and then I'll look to widen it further, if one side get ITM and stick I'll roll the lot way out to safety until the storm passes, but I'm thinking 5/31 165/185 -> 6/7 160/190 -> sit on hands...

 

[Max Plaid]

yeah and even then the HW and code will need tweaking...for example it needs to be able to measure far more precise distance, and do so much closer to the actual cameras, in order to do fine/close manipulation... versus say stopping a car where you're NEVER going to plan to stop so close to the next car that being "wrong" by half an inch matters... but being half an inch off in human-hands-precision work could be complete failure at the task.

I would assume that Tesla have been filming the workforce for some time already and this can be used for training?

Also I think the underlying code for the FSD engine is the same, the try/fail all those years on FSD don't need to be redone for Optimus, just new data and hardware API's to be applied

 

[Knightshade]

I would assume that Tesla have been filming the workforce for some time already and this can be used for training?

Also I think the underlying code for the FSD engine is the same, the try/fail all those years on FSD don't need to be redone for Optimus, just new data and hardware API's to be applied

I think VERY broad strokes like "How to determine how far away a thing is" can be largely reused but again need to be much more precise.

But almost nothing else... the outputs are all different (not steering and throttle/brake angle- but far more precision movements of various body parts that have to all coordinate with each other)... the inputs are largely different- pedestrians at a crosswalk will behave differently than humans (and bots) in a factory walking around- again vastly more precision and distance needed.

None of this is at all an impossible problem- I just don't think they're likely recycling THAT much from existing FSD beyond the inference HW and some cameras (and even then placement won't be the same, and as I say it'll need to measure much closer and more precisely than the cars do)- but yeah they can at least skip the years of failed hard-code architecture and jump right to end-to-end NNs.

 

[dl003]

My default scenario for tomorrow. If it plays out this way, we have to buy the next dip. Triangle correction precedes only the last leg in a sequence.

 

[Jim Holder]

Seeing quite a few hardcore Tesla Twitter bulls selling some of their positions out of fear of the vote not going Tesla's way and Elon packing up and leaving.

I wonder if some of the big boy funds that own TSLA are intentionally waiting to cast their votes to create some uncertainty and doubt. The closer we get to June 13th and Tesla is still openly trying to get votes, the more panic is going to set in and create a possible selloff leading into June 13th.

The comments on this one

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792569271782170771

 

[Jim Holder]

My default scenario for tomorrow. If it plays out this way, we have to buy the next dip. Triangle correction precedes only the last leg in a sequence.
View attachment 1048852

That means sell CCs at any rip ASAP…no?

 

[MikeC]

The comments on this one

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792569271782170771

This is shaping up to feel like the Q1 we just had. Overweight retail investors almost have to defend against a catastrophic possibility which ultimately probably won’t end up happening…because what if it does?

It used to be a LOT easier to hold through these FUD events when I had full conviction that Elon wouldn’t let Tesla fail. I don’t have that anymore.