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My personal opinion here, but I think we are seeing broad market skepticism first, sector skepticism second, and at current prices Tesla-specific skepticism is a distant third. Automotive is suffering badly; Ford has a bigger problem than Tesla for 1H, and the others aren't going to be much better. They just have a time lag due to the dealer networks.

So, either prices drop, unemployment skyrockets, or the Fed cuts rates... It is a function of who blinks first.
 
Even with Fed soft landing, nobody is buying EVs because incentives are gone.
Now I see why Elon is going all in on getting subscriptions on FSD to boost ER.
Just came back at TSLA after sleeping couples weeks at Twitter and realizes it doesn’t go like he wishes, has probably unattainable demands, long time chief engineers quit.

TSLA now at $157 with a soft landing

I can easily see TSLA at $69 with a full blown recession.

This stock price action made my ATM CC profitable, and my 80 patients days complaining at the clinic way easier to tolerate, because I don’t have the money to retire anymore, lol. If I was 30 years old older I don’t know how I would react to a collapsing portfolio like this, twice within 2 years. Probably learned not to put all eggs in the same basket, even if it’s seems to be the best company every created in generations.

I feel like closing my current CCs and sell agressive ATM CCs but a reversal probably gonna happen soon because that what happened last time I did that.
 
Position update for me - I shifted heavily short yesterday when shares were off ~$4; so far that's proving good timing for me. Heavily short means that the overall portfolio is roughly flat with shares off 2.75% today. The part that actually shows a loss are the shares that I have a 10+ year holding horizon for - the option trades / be the house are in favor of the share price going down.

I've got former DITM put spreads that I flip rolled into DITM call spreads and are now looking a lot better. These call spreads are still pretty DITM (-150c/+180c May 17th; -155c/+185c Apr 26th; and -135c/+165c May 17th) but since these are flip rolls from -200p/+170p spreads I like these way better than if I were just holding.

I've also paired up all of these with put spreads that are even further down. For example the -150c/+180c are paired with -130p/+100p spreads to complete an IC. With the share price dropping the absolute worst case is I trade in 1 DITM call spread for 1 DITM put spread, but now it'd be a -130/+100 instead of a -200/+170 -- much more manageable.


I closed max DTE 300 strike calls at a small loss and used some of that freed up cash to buy more max DTE 150 puts. I don't think we're close to the bottom yet though I also don't think we're going straight there. I'll explain what I see more completely later, but the essential idea of the moment is that I see the market reassessing what Tesla is worth. I've seen this a couple of times to the upside - that collective "oh stuff" moment when the investing community realizes that the valuation is just wrong.

For many reasons, not all of them articulated yet by others, I see that going on right now but to the downside. My long term thesis (10+ years) is unchanged, but my sub-2 year thesis is that we're more likely to trade around $100 than $200 (much less $300).


I'm totally in love with this latest FSD release. It is mind blowingly good to me. As an investor though I don't see it creating that iPhone / ChatGPT moment that causes the market to realize the company valuation is flat out wrong, and to revalue the company upwards.

(Sidebar - I consider owning and driving a Tesla on a daily basis to be an important pillar for a Tesla investor. If you don't have FSD and won't be getting it; haven't driven it yourself, then you're really just guessing at how others will react to it. Owning and using it can also cause an overreaction of course :p).
 
Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said.

By Becky Peterson
Apr 16, 2024, 3:16pm PDT

When Elon Musk arrived at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, factory last week to tour an expansion project on the south side of the 10-million-square-foot facility, he was furious.

The expansion was part of a high-priority project for Musk: a data center for Dojo, a supercomputer Tesla is developing. Dojo is necessary to make full self-driving capabilities, powered by artificial intelligence, a reality for Tesla’s electric vehicles. But on that day in mid-April, the building expansion was little more than a metal skeleton, still missing most of a roof and ground floor due to construction delays made worse by bad weather and delivery issues, according to two former Tesla employees.

Another hitch in the construction: The ground floor couldn't be laid until The Boring Company, Musk’s tunneling startup, completed a subterranean road under the structure, which Tesla hopes its pickup trucks—the Cybertruck—will one day use to autonomously ferry themselves to another part of the sprawling campus, one of the people said. In response to the delays, Musk fired Amir Mirshahi, the construction project’s director of infrastructure, said the two former employees, who had been briefed on his departure.
• Musk was furious about construction delays of a datacenter for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer
• Managers were tasked with picking 20% of their employees to be considered for layoffs
• Tesla halted production of a new Model Y battery pack before battery executive Drew Baglino’s departureThe Takeaway

Musk’s dissatisfaction with the state of the project came at a delicate moment for Tesla, when demand for its vehicles has slumped and investors are punishing its stock. The downturn seems to have prompted Musk to swing into action over the past couple of weeks at Tesla at a time when his critics say he needs to devote more time to the carmaker and spend less of it at his many other companies, including X and SpaceX.
Musk’s most decisive action came Monday when he announced the layoffs of more than 10% of the company’s staff, which totaled over 140,000 employees at the end of 2023. There are signs the cuts could eventually go much deeper: Last week, Tesla managers were asked to provide the company with a list of 20% of their employees to consider for layoffs, said a former employee involved in those discussions.
Several other Tesla executives also announced their departures from the company on Monday, including one of Tesla’s most senior executives, Drew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, and Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy and business development.

At the same time, Musk has sought to counter fears that cutbacks at the company are compromising projects that could fuel future growth. For example, he recently suspended plans to produce a long-promised $25,000 consumer vehicle, said two of the former employees. (Musk denied a Reuters report on April 5 that Tesla had canceled the project).

He then said that Tesla will unveil another new vehicle on August 8, which the company refers to as a robotaxi. Although Musk didn’t share details of the car, he has said in the past that fully autonomous Teslas will allow their owners to earn income by giving rides to other passengers. Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said. The vehicle—which will not have a steering wheel, according to a biography of Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson—is expected to face many regulatory hurdles before its release.

It wouldn’t be the first time Musk has announced a new product long before it was finished. Musk unveiled Tesla’s Cybertruck in 2019, promising production by 2021 at a price of $39,900. In reality, Tesla delivered the first Cybertrucks at the end of 2023, with the first batch of cars priced between $80,000 and $100,000.

The company has also faced significant legal and consumer pushback against its full self-driving technology, a driver assistance product first released in beta in 2020, the name of which suggested it made cars fully autonomous. On its website, Tesla now clarifies that the technology requires “active driver supervision” and does “not make the vehicle autonomous.”

In the case of Dojo, Musk’s ambitions are mixed with ambivalence. While he said Tesla will spend $1 billion building Dojo in 2024, he told Wall Street in January that Dojo is “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability.” Tesla still currently relies on Nvidia chips to run its existing artificial intelligence.

These future products are especially important for the company now, as unsold Teslas pile up. The company recently said sales of Tesla vehicles fell more than 9% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

That marked the end of years of growth as the company is now grappling with an aging vehicle lineup and growing competition in the EV market. That competition is especially fierce in China—a giant market Tesla has invested heavily in—where rivals like BYD have surged on sales of low-cost EVs. To attract more buyers, Tesla has slashed the prices on its most popular vehicles thousands of dollars in some cases.

Collectively, the issues have rattled the faith of Tesla investors. Its shares have fallen more than 9% in the past five days and are down nearly 37% from the start of the year.

“The Street wants and NEEDS answers next week on Tesla's 1Q conference call next Tuesday, April 23rd after the bell as the string of bad news over the last few months has been a horror show for investors in the Tesla story,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a research note on Monday.

Tesla has hit plenty of rough patches before. It last laid off 10% of its salaried workforce in 2022, and it has done smaller and more targeted reductions in head counts in the months since. Musk described Monday’s layoffs as par for the course. “About every 5 years, we need to reorganize and streamline the company for the next phase of growth,” he wrote in a post on X on Monday.

Many employees found out about the latest round of layoffs through an email from Musk early Monday morning. But there were earlier signs of tightening budgets. For several weeks, Tesla managers had told employees to curb all nonessential travel and to return company-issued cellphones they weren’t using, two of the former employees said.

While some employees were told not to worry about layoffs, they saw some concerning signs. Major projects run by Baglino faced issues in recent months, two of the people said. Baglino oversaw planning for a factory that will make cathodes, a component of the batteries that go inside Tesla's vehicles, which had fallen behind schedule, the former employees said. The leader of that project, Anthony Thurston, was also laid off, he announced on Monday.

A second project led by Baglino—to redesign the battery pack for Tesla’s Model Y—fell apart in late 2023. Tesla decommissioned the assembly line that produced the part, known as a structural battery pack, in December and has started to dismantle the line to use the parts on other projects, one of the former employees said.

For some longtime Tesla employees, the biggest harbinger of change to come came in the appearance at the company of Omead Afshar, a longtime lieutenant of Musk who oversaw the construction of the Texas factory. In 2022, after Tesla investigated his use of company resources, Afshar moved to SpaceX and was rarely seen around the factory. A few weeks before the layoffs, though, one person described seeing Afshar appear in the factory lobby, raising questions among some employees about what Musk’s fixer might be back around to fix.

Becky Peterson is a reporter at The Information based in New York City covering Tesla, SpaceX and all things Elon Musk. Contact her at [email protected].
 
Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said.

By Becky Peterson
Apr 16, 2024, 3:16pm PDT

When Elon Musk arrived at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, factory last week to tour an expansion project on the south side of the 10-million-square-foot facility, he was furious.

The expansion was part of a high-priority project for Musk: a data center for Dojo, a supercomputer Tesla is developing. Dojo is necessary to make full self-driving capabilities, powered by artificial intelligence, a reality for Tesla’s electric vehicles. But on that day in mid-April, the building expansion was little more than a metal skeleton, still missing most of a roof and ground floor due to construction delays made worse by bad weather and delivery issues, according to two former Tesla employees.

Another hitch in the construction: The ground floor couldn't be laid until The Boring Company, Musk’s tunneling startup, completed a subterranean road under the structure, which Tesla hopes its pickup trucks—the Cybertruck—will one day use to autonomously ferry themselves to another part of the sprawling campus, one of the people said. In response to the delays, Musk fired Amir Mirshahi, the construction project’s director of infrastructure, said the two former employees, who had been briefed on his departure.
• Musk was furious about construction delays of a datacenter for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer
• Managers were tasked with picking 20% of their employees to be considered for layoffs
• Tesla halted production of a new Model Y battery pack before battery executive Drew Baglino’s departureThe Takeaway

Musk’s dissatisfaction with the state of the project came at a delicate moment for Tesla, when demand for its vehicles has slumped and investors are punishing its stock. The downturn seems to have prompted Musk to swing into action over the past couple of weeks at Tesla at a time when his critics say he needs to devote more time to the carmaker and spend less of it at his many other companies, including X and SpaceX.
Musk’s most decisive action came Monday when he announced the layoffs of more than 10% of the company’s staff, which totaled over 140,000 employees at the end of 2023. There are signs the cuts could eventually go much deeper: Last week, Tesla managers were asked to provide the company with a list of 20% of their employees to consider for layoffs, said a former employee involved in those discussions.
Several other Tesla executives also announced their departures from the company on Monday, including one of Tesla’s most senior executives, Drew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, and Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy and business development.

At the same time, Musk has sought to counter fears that cutbacks at the company are compromising projects that could fuel future growth. For example, he recently suspended plans to produce a long-promised $25,000 consumer vehicle, said two of the former employees. (Musk denied a Reuters report on April 5 that Tesla had canceled the project).

He then said that Tesla will unveil another new vehicle on August 8, which the company refers to as a robotaxi. Although Musk didn’t share details of the car, he has said in the past that fully autonomous Teslas will allow their owners to earn income by giving rides to other passengers. Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said. The vehicle—which will not have a steering wheel, according to a biography of Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson—is expected to face many regulatory hurdles before its release.

It wouldn’t be the first time Musk has announced a new product long before it was finished. Musk unveiled Tesla’s Cybertruck in 2019, promising production by 2021 at a price of $39,900. In reality, Tesla delivered the first Cybertrucks at the end of 2023, with the first batch of cars priced between $80,000 and $100,000.

The company has also faced significant legal and consumer pushback against its full self-driving technology, a driver assistance product first released in beta in 2020, the name of which suggested it made cars fully autonomous. On its website, Tesla now clarifies that the technology requires “active driver supervision” and does “not make the vehicle autonomous.”

In the case of Dojo, Musk’s ambitions are mixed with ambivalence. While he said Tesla will spend $1 billion building Dojo in 2024, he told Wall Street in January that Dojo is “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability.” Tesla still currently relies on Nvidia chips to run its existing artificial intelligence.

These future products are especially important for the company now, as unsold Teslas pile up. The company recently said sales of Tesla vehicles fell more than 9% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

That marked the end of years of growth as the company is now grappling with an aging vehicle lineup and growing competition in the EV market. That competition is especially fierce in China—a giant market Tesla has invested heavily in—where rivals like BYD have surged on sales of low-cost EVs. To attract more buyers, Tesla has slashed the prices on its most popular vehicles thousands of dollars in some cases.

Collectively, the issues have rattled the faith of Tesla investors. Its shares have fallen more than 9% in the past five days and are down nearly 37% from the start of the year.

“The Street wants and NEEDS answers next week on Tesla's 1Q conference call next Tuesday, April 23rd after the bell as the string of bad news over the last few months has been a horror show for investors in the Tesla story,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a research note on Monday.

Tesla has hit plenty of rough patches before. It last laid off 10% of its salaried workforce in 2022, and it has done smaller and more targeted reductions in head counts in the months since. Musk described Monday’s layoffs as par for the course. “About every 5 years, we need to reorganize and streamline the company for the next phase of growth,” he wrote in a post on X on Monday.

Many employees found out about the latest round of layoffs through an email from Musk early Monday morning. But there were earlier signs of tightening budgets. For several weeks, Tesla managers had told employees to curb all nonessential travel and to return company-issued cellphones they weren’t using, two of the former employees said.

While some employees were told not to worry about layoffs, they saw some concerning signs. Major projects run by Baglino faced issues in recent months, two of the people said. Baglino oversaw planning for a factory that will make cathodes, a component of the batteries that go inside Tesla's vehicles, which had fallen behind schedule, the former employees said. The leader of that project, Anthony Thurston, was also laid off, he announced on Monday.

A second project led by Baglino—to redesign the battery pack for Tesla’s Model Y—fell apart in late 2023. Tesla decommissioned the assembly line that produced the part, known as a structural battery pack, in December and has started to dismantle the line to use the parts on other projects, one of the former employees said.

For some longtime Tesla employees, the biggest harbinger of change to come came in the appearance at the company of Omead Afshar, a longtime lieutenant of Musk who oversaw the construction of the Texas factory. In 2022, after Tesla investigated his use of company resources, Afshar moved to SpaceX and was rarely seen around the factory. A few weeks before the layoffs, though, one person described seeing Afshar appear in the factory lobby, raising questions among some employees about what Musk’s fixer might be back around to fix.

Becky Peterson is a reporter at The Information based in New York City covering Tesla, SpaceX and all things Elon Musk. Contact her at [email protected].
How much do you want to bet that the one employee she got to say that quote "weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years" isn't part of the FSD nor the Robotaxi team and is probably a line worker that has no knowledge of any 🙃
 
How much do you want to bet that the one employee she got to say that quote "weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years" isn't part of the FSD nor the Robotaxi team and is probably a line worker that has no knowledge of any 🙃
You’re giving her too much credit that she actually spoke to employees and that the quotes are even real 😎
 
EW update:

Unless TSLA can regain $180 soon, probabilities are leaning toward the Red path :eek:

1713317388805.png
 
Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said.

By Becky Peterson
Apr 16, 2024, 3:16pm PDT

When Elon Musk arrived at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, factory last week to tour an expansion project on the south side of the 10-million-square-foot facility, he was furious.

The expansion was part of a high-priority project for Musk: a data center for Dojo, a supercomputer Tesla is developing. Dojo is necessary to make full self-driving capabilities, powered by artificial intelligence, a reality for Tesla’s electric vehicles. But on that day in mid-April, the building expansion was little more than a metal skeleton, still missing most of a roof and ground floor due to construction delays made worse by bad weather and delivery issues, according to two former Tesla employees.

Another hitch in the construction: The ground floor couldn't be laid until The Boring Company, Musk’s tunneling startup, completed a subterranean road under the structure, which Tesla hopes its pickup trucks—the Cybertruck—will one day use to autonomously ferry themselves to another part of the sprawling campus, one of the people said. In response to the delays, Musk fired Amir Mirshahi, the construction project’s director of infrastructure, said the two former employees, who had been briefed on his departure.
• Musk was furious about construction delays of a datacenter for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer
• Managers were tasked with picking 20% of their employees to be considered for layoffs
• Tesla halted production of a new Model Y battery pack before battery executive Drew Baglino’s departureThe Takeaway

Musk’s dissatisfaction with the state of the project came at a delicate moment for Tesla, when demand for its vehicles has slumped and investors are punishing its stock. The downturn seems to have prompted Musk to swing into action over the past couple of weeks at Tesla at a time when his critics say he needs to devote more time to the carmaker and spend less of it at his many other companies, including X and SpaceX.
Musk’s most decisive action came Monday when he announced the layoffs of more than 10% of the company’s staff, which totaled over 140,000 employees at the end of 2023. There are signs the cuts could eventually go much deeper: Last week, Tesla managers were asked to provide the company with a list of 20% of their employees to consider for layoffs, said a former employee involved in those discussions.
Several other Tesla executives also announced their departures from the company on Monday, including one of Tesla’s most senior executives, Drew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, and Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy and business development.

At the same time, Musk has sought to counter fears that cutbacks at the company are compromising projects that could fuel future growth. For example, he recently suspended plans to produce a long-promised $25,000 consumer vehicle, said two of the former employees. (Musk denied a Reuters report on April 5 that Tesla had canceled the project).

He then said that Tesla will unveil another new vehicle on August 8, which the company refers to as a robotaxi. Although Musk didn’t share details of the car, he has said in the past that fully autonomous Teslas will allow their owners to earn income by giving rides to other passengers. Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said. The vehicle—which will not have a steering wheel, according to a biography of Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson—is expected to face many regulatory hurdles before its release.

It wouldn’t be the first time Musk has announced a new product long before it was finished. Musk unveiled Tesla’s Cybertruck in 2019, promising production by 2021 at a price of $39,900. In reality, Tesla delivered the first Cybertrucks at the end of 2023, with the first batch of cars priced between $80,000 and $100,000.

The company has also faced significant legal and consumer pushback against its full self-driving technology, a driver assistance product first released in beta in 2020, the name of which suggested it made cars fully autonomous. On its website, Tesla now clarifies that the technology requires “active driver supervision” and does “not make the vehicle autonomous.”

In the case of Dojo, Musk’s ambitions are mixed with ambivalence. While he said Tesla will spend $1 billion building Dojo in 2024, he told Wall Street in January that Dojo is “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability.” Tesla still currently relies on Nvidia chips to run its existing artificial intelligence.

These future products are especially important for the company now, as unsold Teslas pile up. The company recently said sales of Tesla vehicles fell more than 9% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

That marked the end of years of growth as the company is now grappling with an aging vehicle lineup and growing competition in the EV market. That competition is especially fierce in China—a giant market Tesla has invested heavily in—where rivals like BYD have surged on sales of low-cost EVs. To attract more buyers, Tesla has slashed the prices on its most popular vehicles thousands of dollars in some cases.

Collectively, the issues have rattled the faith of Tesla investors. Its shares have fallen more than 9% in the past five days and are down nearly 37% from the start of the year.

“The Street wants and NEEDS answers next week on Tesla's 1Q conference call next Tuesday, April 23rd after the bell as the string of bad news over the last few months has been a horror show for investors in the Tesla story,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a research note on Monday.

Tesla has hit plenty of rough patches before. It last laid off 10% of its salaried workforce in 2022, and it has done smaller and more targeted reductions in head counts in the months since. Musk described Monday’s layoffs as par for the course. “About every 5 years, we need to reorganize and streamline the company for the next phase of growth,” he wrote in a post on X on Monday.

Many employees found out about the latest round of layoffs through an email from Musk early Monday morning. But there were earlier signs of tightening budgets. For several weeks, Tesla managers had told employees to curb all nonessential travel and to return company-issued cellphones they weren’t using, two of the former employees said.

While some employees were told not to worry about layoffs, they saw some concerning signs. Major projects run by Baglino faced issues in recent months, two of the people said. Baglino oversaw planning for a factory that will make cathodes, a component of the batteries that go inside Tesla's vehicles, which had fallen behind schedule, the former employees said. The leader of that project, Anthony Thurston, was also laid off, he announced on Monday.

A second project led by Baglino—to redesign the battery pack for Tesla’s Model Y—fell apart in late 2023. Tesla decommissioned the assembly line that produced the part, known as a structural battery pack, in December and has started to dismantle the line to use the parts on other projects, one of the former employees said.

For some longtime Tesla employees, the biggest harbinger of change to come came in the appearance at the company of Omead Afshar, a longtime lieutenant of Musk who oversaw the construction of the Texas factory. In 2022, after Tesla investigated his use of company resources, Afshar moved to SpaceX and was rarely seen around the factory. A few weeks before the layoffs, though, one person described seeing Afshar appear in the factory lobby, raising questions among some employees about what Musk’s fixer might be back around to fix.

Becky Peterson is a reporter at The Information based in New York City covering Tesla, SpaceX and all things Elon Musk. Contact her at [email protected].

Elon is in the house pain with X, CT challenges, slowing EV demand, China, solar industry slow down, glacial FSD improvements, Dojo, possible 4680 model Y issues, inflation/high interest rates, stock price fall, model 2, ... There's not much positive to report. He's probably not done with the temper tantrums.
 
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The expansion was part of a high-priority project for Musk: a data center for Dojo, a supercomputer Tesla is developing.
The person that thought it was a good idea to put a data center in the south expansion of Austin is the one that needs to be fired; that is, was, and always will be an idiotic decision. I am guessing his name is Elon?

The idea of extending the building is ...meh, but putting critical infrastructure there is just stupid. They have so much land to work with, doing things that link its fate to all this other work that truly embodies the Gantt Chart Hell of critical path planning.

But, I have to think Elon isn't that dumb, and there are issues with the source and story. He and his companies have meaningful data center experience and the idea should have immediately raised flags.
 
But, I have to think Elon isn't that dumb, and there are issues with the source and story. He and his companies have meaningful data center experience and the idea should have immediately raised flags.


You might wanna read this story about Elon and the Twitter Sacramento data center move before you put much stock in his "meaningful data center experience"

 
Canaccord Genuity analyst @gianarikas has reiterated his $TSLA price target of $234 and BUY rating.

His new note from today:

“It’s hard to claim the middle in today’s environment. In politics. In stocks; think, for example, of the extreme bifurcation in performance between large cap tech and, virtually, everything else. Now, with @Tesla this team-driven, rah-rah bipolarity is as extreme as extreme gets.

Come to think of it, it’s actually kind of always been that way with Tesla. Every headline is either world-ending or world-beating according to the cognoscenti. We, for our part, despite our not-so-successful BUY rating in 2024, have attempted to be balanced (although we most certainly have our own subconscious biases). We truly believe, for example, that the issues with 1Q24 deliveries were heavily demand-driven BUT also supply-driven.

It’s not rocket science: if Tesla could have built all the right vehicles in the quarter, it could have sold more. If it could have sold all the updated Model 3s people wanted (without supply issues), built its full capacity of Cybertrucks in the quarter (~62.5k), and not endured shutdowns in Europe/Red Sea — it would have sold more vehicles.

And, if you're genuinely trying to understand true demand for Tesla vehicles in 1Q24 — you need to take that into account. Which brings us to this week’s announcement of layoffs.

The bad:
• The first thing we thought when we saw the layoffs headlines was: “whoa, margins must have been terrible in 1Q24”. On that score, they very well may have been — and we’ll all find out together when the company reports earnings next week.

• In terms of what else these layoffs could mean — clearly, the company is now contending with a period of slower growth — slower than they may have thought even at the beginning of 2024. Which, by the way, makes the new Robotaxi reveal all the more important: will we get a vehicle that will reignite unit growth? Or one that will fail to energize the market?

• Finally, senior executives, like Drew Baglino (SVP of Powertrain and Energy), leaving were a bit of a body blow — and reminiscent of other key departures including CFO Zach Kirkhorn (2023) and Chief Technical Officer/Co-Founder JB Straubel (2019; Mr. Straubel currently sits on Tesla's Board of Directors). Baglino has been a strong contributor. Time will tell what the reasons behind his departure were.

The not-so-bad:
• Tesla has had multiple layoffs in its history — always difficult organizationally but according to Mr. Musk necessary “for the next stage of growth”. While the recent one may be on a larger absolute size relative to history — it doesn’t stick out that meaningfully on a percentage basis.”
 
A++++

gamma (market participants) expecting 150-160, judging from tall gammas

cluster of gammas likely to be magnet, especially the tallest

it doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall

as we approach 0dte, tallest gammas may be the same as tallest OI walls, so that's double confirmation

greeks are just another TA tool, you still need other TA (lines, fibs, MA, EW, etc) to confirm your analysis

dealers (vanna) prefer 150-170, if they can push it

all that on a normal day... if there is a black swan then greeks mean nothing until sp stabilizes back and IV dies down

greeks 'per $1 move' is more accurate than 'per 1% move' as the screen refreshes faster

lowest/highest premium probably magnets, but not necessarily

maxpain is useless, but nice to know

contract stats (premium) is very important to indicate bullish/bearishness for the day, especially if lopsided

aggressive moves (buyer or seller can't wait):
puts bought above ask = bearish
calls bought above ask = bullish
puts sold below bid = bullish
calls sold below bid = bearish

thank you!
Jim is the man. If it was me would have gotten an f-.

Thanks Yoona and Jim for the letting us all learn together a little more everyday.

Now Jim please post SMCI and NVDA to continue on with your test :)
 
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Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said.

By Becky Peterson
Apr 16, 2024, 3:16pm PDT

When Elon Musk arrived at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, factory last week to tour an expansion project on the south side of the 10-million-square-foot facility, he was furious.

The expansion was part of a high-priority project for Musk: a data center for Dojo, a supercomputer Tesla is developing. Dojo is necessary to make full self-driving capabilities, powered by artificial intelligence, a reality for Tesla’s electric vehicles. But on that day in mid-April, the building expansion was little more than a metal skeleton, still missing most of a roof and ground floor due to construction delays made worse by bad weather and delivery issues, according to two former Tesla employees.

Another hitch in the construction: The ground floor couldn't be laid until The Boring Company, Musk’s tunneling startup, completed a subterranean road under the structure, which Tesla hopes its pickup trucks—the Cybertruck—will one day use to autonomously ferry themselves to another part of the sprawling campus, one of the people said. In response to the delays, Musk fired Amir Mirshahi, the construction project’s director of infrastructure, said the two former employees, who had been briefed on his departure.
• Musk was furious about construction delays of a datacenter for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer
• Managers were tasked with picking 20% of their employees to be considered for layoffs
• Tesla halted production of a new Model Y battery pack before battery executive Drew Baglino’s departureThe Takeaway

Musk’s dissatisfaction with the state of the project came at a delicate moment for Tesla, when demand for its vehicles has slumped and investors are punishing its stock. The downturn seems to have prompted Musk to swing into action over the past couple of weeks at Tesla at a time when his critics say he needs to devote more time to the carmaker and spend less of it at his many other companies, including X and SpaceX.
Musk’s most decisive action came Monday when he announced the layoffs of more than 10% of the company’s staff, which totaled over 140,000 employees at the end of 2023. There are signs the cuts could eventually go much deeper: Last week, Tesla managers were asked to provide the company with a list of 20% of their employees to consider for layoffs, said a former employee involved in those discussions.
Several other Tesla executives also announced their departures from the company on Monday, including one of Tesla’s most senior executives, Drew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, and Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy and business development.

At the same time, Musk has sought to counter fears that cutbacks at the company are compromising projects that could fuel future growth. For example, he recently suspended plans to produce a long-promised $25,000 consumer vehicle, said two of the former employees. (Musk denied a Reuters report on April 5 that Tesla had canceled the project).

He then said that Tesla will unveil another new vehicle on August 8, which the company refers to as a robotaxi. Although Musk didn’t share details of the car, he has said in the past that fully autonomous Teslas will allow their owners to earn income by giving rides to other passengers. Musk’s announcement of the August date surprised the employees, who previously weren’t expecting the robotaxi to arrive for years, one of them said. The vehicle—which will not have a steering wheel, according to a biography of Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson—is expected to face many regulatory hurdles before its release.

It wouldn’t be the first time Musk has announced a new product long before it was finished. Musk unveiled Tesla’s Cybertruck in 2019, promising production by 2021 at a price of $39,900. In reality, Tesla delivered the first Cybertrucks at the end of 2023, with the first batch of cars priced between $80,000 and $100,000.

The company has also faced significant legal and consumer pushback against its full self-driving technology, a driver assistance product first released in beta in 2020, the name of which suggested it made cars fully autonomous. On its website, Tesla now clarifies that the technology requires “active driver supervision” and does “not make the vehicle autonomous.”

In the case of Dojo, Musk’s ambitions are mixed with ambivalence. While he said Tesla will spend $1 billion building Dojo in 2024, he told Wall Street in January that Dojo is “a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it’s not something that is a high probability.” Tesla still currently relies on Nvidia chips to run its existing artificial intelligence.

These future products are especially important for the company now, as unsold Teslas pile up. The company recently said sales of Tesla vehicles fell more than 9% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

That marked the end of years of growth as the company is now grappling with an aging vehicle lineup and growing competition in the EV market. That competition is especially fierce in China—a giant market Tesla has invested heavily in—where rivals like BYD have surged on sales of low-cost EVs. To attract more buyers, Tesla has slashed the prices on its most popular vehicles thousands of dollars in some cases.

Collectively, the issues have rattled the faith of Tesla investors. Its shares have fallen more than 9% in the past five days and are down nearly 37% from the start of the year.

“The Street wants and NEEDS answers next week on Tesla's 1Q conference call next Tuesday, April 23rd after the bell as the string of bad news over the last few months has been a horror show for investors in the Tesla story,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a research note on Monday.

Tesla has hit plenty of rough patches before. It last laid off 10% of its salaried workforce in 2022, and it has done smaller and more targeted reductions in head counts in the months since. Musk described Monday’s layoffs as par for the course. “About every 5 years, we need to reorganize and streamline the company for the next phase of growth,” he wrote in a post on X on Monday.

Many employees found out about the latest round of layoffs through an email from Musk early Monday morning. But there were earlier signs of tightening budgets. For several weeks, Tesla managers had told employees to curb all nonessential travel and to return company-issued cellphones they weren’t using, two of the former employees said.

While some employees were told not to worry about layoffs, they saw some concerning signs. Major projects run by Baglino faced issues in recent months, two of the people said. Baglino oversaw planning for a factory that will make cathodes, a component of the batteries that go inside Tesla's vehicles, which had fallen behind schedule, the former employees said. The leader of that project, Anthony Thurston, was also laid off, he announced on Monday.

A second project led by Baglino—to redesign the battery pack for Tesla’s Model Y—fell apart in late 2023. Tesla decommissioned the assembly line that produced the part, known as a structural battery pack, in December and has started to dismantle the line to use the parts on other projects, one of the former employees said.

For some longtime Tesla employees, the biggest harbinger of change to come came in the appearance at the company of Omead Afshar, a longtime lieutenant of Musk who oversaw the construction of the Texas factory. In 2022, after Tesla investigated his use of company resources, Afshar moved to SpaceX and was rarely seen around the factory. A few weeks before the layoffs, though, one person described seeing Afshar appear in the factory lobby, raising questions among some employees about what Musk’s fixer might be back around to fix.

Becky Peterson is a reporter at The Information based in New York City covering Tesla, SpaceX and all things Elon Musk. Contact her at [email protected].
Can print this out and add it as a chapter in the Isaacson bio...
 
Som morning thoughts...

One of the most pressing question I have right now, like others, is when to sell the +p150's I bought to cover this unfolding situation. Right now they're +60%, but as they're July expiry I'm inclined to hold them, at least until the fabled ~14O gap-fill, but I'm also of the mind that sub-100 is coming, and that pay-day would give me enough cash on-hand to quit the day job

I've also 100x +c200's that are thoroughly under water and I agree with @adiggs that sub-200 is the most likely outcome for the short term. However, I don't see the point in panic-selling, I can still use these to write calls aghast, just need to bridge the margin gap with cash. In fact I'm thinking to roll these perpetually, costs around +$1 per contract per month to do so, if you can sneak $1 per week on those, then maintaining them going forward seems like a decent strategy, they just form the long leg of my calendar spreads

I'm still looking to sell some -p140's for next week, yes there's a risk on those, but worth taking, I think now that we're this far down already

SMCI - I have 2x July +p800, which are proving to be a great little cash generator selling weekly -puts. I see that 5/3 -p1000 are paying almost $100, so thinking to sell 2x of those and use the funds to roll the +p800 to +p1000, seems a nice free roll that will pay-off longer term
 
Tesla preliminary Proxy statement filed:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm

Dear Fellow Stockholders,

We could call 2023 a watershed year for Tesla, with many defining moments. However, for Tesla — in light of our past accomplishments — 2023 could also be called just a typical year of triumphs and achievements. In 2023, the Model Y became the best-selling vehicle in the world, we launched our new Model 3 lineup, saw tremendous strides in our quest for FSD and we began deliveries of our innovative and highly anticipated Cybertruck.

We also witnessed the beginning of the significant growth of our Energy Storage and Services and Other businesses. We believe these types of triumphs and achievements are normal course for Tesla because Tesla is a nimble organization with an unmatched pace of innovation that has resulted in products and services that surpass all expectations driven by visionary leadership and most importantly the best and most dedicated employees in the world. We want to thank all of our employees for their outstanding efforts.

Of course, a key part of this nimble organization requires careful management of our resources. We recently announced a company-wide restructuring that reduces our headcount by more than 10% globally. Over the years, we have grown rapidly with multiple factories scaling around the globe. With this rapid growth, there has been a duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas. We believe it is extremely important to look at every aspect of our business for cost reductions and increasing productivity. This action will prepare us for our next phase of growth, as we are developing some of the most revolutionary technologies in auto, energy and artificial intelligence.

With Your Vote in the 2024 Annual Meeting, Tesla Will Thrive.

Our stockholders drive Tesla. Your votes and your voices make critical decisions for the future of our company, and we have and want to continue to listen to you. That is why we are asking for your support for all of our management proposals including re-election of two of our hardworking and dedicated directors, Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. However, there are two important proposals that I want to touch on here, that we believe are critical to the future success of Tesla, both of which were recommended following a rigorous and thoughtful analysis by an independent Special Committee, comprised of another one of our hardworking and dedicated directors in Kathleen Wilson-Thompson:

1) Approving moving Tesla’s state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas (Proposal Three); and

2) Ratifying Elon Musk’s compensation under the CEO pay package that our stockholders previously approved at our 2018 special meeting (Proposal Four).

Texas Is Tesla’s Home.
2024 is the year that Tesla should move home to Texas. We are asking for your vote to approve Tesla’s move from Delaware, our current state of incorporation, to a new legal home in Texas. Texas is already our business home, and we are committed to it. Gigafactory Texas is one of the largest factories in the United States, covering 2,500 acres along the Colorado River. The Gigafactory is the manufacturing hub for our most innovative vehicles, including the Cybertruck and the Model Y. We have a significant number of manufacturing, operations, and engineering employees in Texas, and our executives are based there. Texas is where we should continue working towards our mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy, as we lay the foundation for our growth with our ramp and build of factories for our future vehicles and to help meet the demand for energy storage as well as with our progress in artificial intelligence via full self-driving and Optimus.
We have received letters from thousands of Tesla stockholders — large and small — supporting a move home to Texas. We have heard you, and now we formally ask that you speak in a meaningful way: and vote in favor of taking Tesla to our business home of Texas.
Ratification Will Restore Tesla’s Stockholder Democracy.

Corporate democracy and stockholder rights are at the heart of Tesla’s values. Earlier this year, a Delaware Court ruling in Tornetta v. Musk (which can be found as Annex I to this Proxy Statement) struck down one of your votes and rescinded the pay package that an overwhelming majority of you voted to grant to our CEO, Elon Musk, in 2018. The Tornetta Court decided, years later, that the CEO pay package was not “entirely fair” to the very same stockholders who voted to approve it — even though approximately 73% of all votes cast by our disinterested stockholders voted to approve it in 2018.

Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value. That strikes us — and the many stockholders from whom we already have heard — as fundamentally unfair, and inconsistent with the will of the stockholders who voted for it.
The 2018 CEO pay package required Elon to deliver transformative and unprecedented growth to earn any compensation. It was a big risk, and many thought that the plan’s targets for benefits to stockholders were simply unachievable. But our company and our leaders have always had big dreams and it is fundamental to the entrepreneurial spirit of Tesla to take big risks for the chance at big rewards. This has led to the incredible innovation and progress — and economic gains — that we have achieved at Tesla. In 2018, we asked for unbelievable growth and accomplishments. Elon delivered: Tesla’s stockholders have benefited from unprecedented growth under Elon’s leadership and Tesla has met every single one of the 2018 CEO pay package’s targets.

And — most importantly for the future of Tesla — the 2018 CEO pay package built in further incentives to benefit Tesla stockholders by requiring that Elon hold onto any shares he receives when he exercises his options for five years — which means he will continue to be driven to innovate and drive growth at Tesla because the value of his shares will depend on it!

The Board stands behind this pay package. We believed in it in 2018, as we asked Elon to pursue remarkable goals to grow the company. You, as stockholders, also believed in it in 2018 when you overwhelmingly approved it. Time and results have only shown the wisdom of our judgment.
We do not agree with what the Delaware Court decided, and we do not think that what the Delaware Court said is how corporate law should or does work. So we are coming to you now so you can help fix this issue — which is a matter of fundamental fairness and respect to our CEO. You have the chance to reinstate your vote and make it count. We are asking you to make your voice heard — once again — by voting to approve ratification of Elon’s 2018 compensation plan.
Thank you for your continued support of Tesla, and, together with my fellow Board members, I hope you can join us for our 2024 annual meeting on June 13, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. Central Time.

Very truly yours,
[MISSING IMAGE: sg_robyndenholm-bw.jpg]

Robyn Denholm
Chairperson of the Board


Page 88-89:

As noted by the Special Committee, if the Company needed to replace Mr. Musk’s compensation with similar compensation in lieu of Ratification, such amounts would likely result in significant accounting charges, for the Company. The Company has determined if Tesla were to issue new stock option awards to purchase approximately 303.96 million shares of common stock, assuming no further vesting conditions or sale restrictions with the exercise price as the closing stock price of April 1, 2024, which was $175.22, the accounting implication would be an incremental compensation expense in excess of $25 billion, which is calculated using a Black-Scholes valuation model (assuming an expected term of five years), even when taking into account the reversal of original grant date fair value of the 2018 CEO Performance Award of approximately $2.3 billion.
 
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