Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[InTheMiddle]

BTC these for a $17k profit…not because I think they might suddenly be ITM, but rather so I can sell the underlying shares on any bounce. See everyone on the other side of earnings. GLHF!

Now that we're on the other side of earnings, just re-bought one 10k block of shares to begin re-building my TSLA position. Not a conviction buy that now is the right time to really reacquire anywhere near all the prior share holdings yet...still reading the room on what the short term future holds. Besides, the annual meeting voting is still quite some time away, so plenty of time to pick them up. In the meantime, STO 100x -TSLA240126C190, and if TSLA rebounds above $190 tomorrow for these new shares to be called away, I'll happily pocket the gain.

 

[mongo]

backtesting was for put shorts that went ITM during the week

assuming no early assignment (there's no way i can program that), if you roll with 5- or 10- strike improvement every week (ie -p200 then -p195 then -p190 etc), the ITM will eventually go OTM 100% of the time since 2021

whether the roll is credit or debit is up to your personal circumstance, i am just tracking HLOC prices

put rolls will OTM faster than call rolls based on the backtesting, especially on 10-strike improvements

i believe the trick is to roll BEFORE you go ITM for 'guaranteed' credit (this works with wide ICs)

View attachment 1012123

Isn't that (rolling outs always ends up OTM) the same as saying TSLA hasn't gone to zero?

 

[tivoboy]

Here we go. (Yesterday I even heard Teslaboomermama (Alexandra Metz) who is a big Tesla bull, in despair, that the only thing to expect is a drop ("in which we all can accumulate stock") because this is how the majority of institutions look at Tesla: 1 year out. To jump back in just before really taking off.
At least I am a little bit diversified this time and still hope I will not get assigned some _P that are really close and underwater. Maybe we get a run to the 175 and take off from there, but I keep an eye on the fat dotted red line under all bottom that is at 130-ish (rising) right now. Don't think that is a very likely bottom though, because of all the drops we already had (in fact al the way down since almost SP300!) Maybe the last bigger gap-up will ultimately be reached, which is 145. For now, I hope it will stop in the 170's.

It’s a little hard to tell, but when the 50DMA moves below the 200DMA, it’s not going to be good.. we’re hovering about $2 apart at the moment.

 

[EVNow]

I thought we don't want Elon talking

Q1 numbers will set the trend for 2024 delivery numbers ....

Yes - I've no idea why people look forward to various events to boost the stock. Track record on that is poor ...

 

[Knightshade]

NOT too deep in the woods for this thread, useful info IMHO.

Wouldn't that same mid 2026, $250 strike LEAP cost only around $10 at TSLA share price ~$130 or so - or only $1.00 around SP $110!!? Surely a possibility worth considering as we balance opportunity costs and risks, especially for those of us with other assets we could sell and invest if we reach these lows or lower.

I mean, sure, the lower SP goes the further OTM the LEAP is and the cheaper it gets- the question is how accurately can you predict where the low is-- versus deciding "this is low enough for the time I'm buying on the option"-- potentially with plans to sell shorter-term ones to make back some of said premium.

The mid-26 one I cite for example, at $40, means you'd have roughly 130ish weeks of weekly to sell and thus "only" need to get about 30ish cents a week selling against them.... but of course if you have weeks in there you have to roll for 0 (or a debit) that can change the math considerably.

(for context selling for next friday, strike of $215, with SP at 185 right now, gets you ~30 cents)

I'm amazed at how quickly the sentiment here oscillates between Bullish and Bearish-the-sky-is-falling.

Eh, I suggested SP had gotten well ahead of fundamentals a couple years ago in the main thread and was hammered with disagrees.... Sadly I'm not smart enough to listen to myself so I didn't liquidate to buy back much cheaper later. Likewise I've been saying for a while now 2024 and 2025 are likely to be pretty flat years given 3/Y approaching saturation around this price point, Tesla having not gotten any new factories or new models up yet, and bot, dojo, and FSD still largely being aspirational Hopium fueled dreams.

TA is cool, but fundamentals actually do matter to SP eventually.

 

[EVNow]

assuming no early assignment (there's no way i can program that), if you roll with 5- or 10- strike improvement every week (ie -p200 then -p195 then -p190 etc), the ITM will eventually go OTM 100% of the time since 2021

whether the roll is credit or debit is up to your personal circumstance, i am just tracking HLOC prices

Rolling for even or credit is not possible with strike improvement when you are DITM. That has been the issue with all my DITM cases ... last year I had to roll from 6/2/23 to 8/11/23, until the SP came back down.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes - I've no idea why people look forward to various events to boost the stock. Track record on that is poor ...

The company update thing could very well provide a relief/dead cat bounce but that'll definitely be short lived.

I still think there's a upcoming macro pullback and that will be the thing that takes TSLA all the way down to fill the gap at $146.

 

[Jim Holder]

So much for SSR, still broke down below the $185 massive order block

178 next?

 

[InTheMiddle]

Now that we're on the other side of earnings, just re-bought one 10k block of shares to begin re-building my TSLA position. Not a conviction buy that now is the right time to really reacquire anywhere near all the prior share holdings yet...still reading the room on what the short term future holds. Besides, the annual meeting voting is still quite some time away, so plenty of time to pick them up. In the meantime, STO 100x -TSLA240126C190, and if TSLA rebounds above $190 tomorrow for these new shares to be called away, I'll happily pocket the gain.

Also, STO 50x -TSLA240126P180 to maybe pick up a few more tomorrow for $180...couldn't even bring myself to make it a full block, though.

 

[EVNow]

I still think there's a upcoming macro pullback

I've been waiting for that since .... November

 

[Yoona]

Rolling for even or credit is not possible with strike improvement when you are DITM. That has been the issue with all my DITM cases ... last year I had to roll from 6/2/23 to 8/11/23, until the SP came back down.

somewhere in there is a line: "i believe the trick is to roll BEFORE you go ITM"

 

[thenewguy1979]

I've been waiting for that since .... November

It coming soon…..

 

[EVNow]

somewhere in there is a line: "i believe the trick is to roll BEFORE you go ITM"

Thats easier said than done.

The problem is the "touch" probability is much higher than "ITM" probability. So, you are likely to roll a lot more times than needed if you start rolling say 1% away from ATM. When SP is just 1% away from ATM, the strike improvement might be minimal, anyway.

There is no easy solution ... we discussed this at length in this thread after I managed to come out of the DITM situation in August.

ps :

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

 

[Jim Holder]

absGEX moved down to $180

 

[Yoona]

Below Bid is bullish, 1/26 -p185

 

[EVNow]

So much for SSR, still broke down below the $185 massive order block

...

178 next?

...

Order blocks change - I don't know how realtime the website you are looking at is. For eg. someone may put an order to buy at 185 - but after ER and when the SP starts trading at 188 ... they may shift the order down (since now everyone expects SP to go down further).

Also after ER the volume is huge. Thats why resistance and support levels crumble so easily. At 11:58 AM for e.g. the volume was 1.3M. Enough to overcome most support levels.

 

[BornToFly]

This is insane. Down 31% since Dec. 29th

 

[Yoona]

This is insane. Down 31% since Dec. 29th

 

[thenewguy1979]

At this point might as well hit 176 and bounce. Get it over with.

Then we go green again…. Enough with the 6 weeks of red.

Wicked didnt yet cover what happen if we broke 176 last night. Guess he was thinking we bounce as well or didnt anticipate the swiftness

 

[thenewguy1979]

Doggy think the biggest issue with ER was no 2024 forecast .

Leave wondering minds to wonder how bad? When someone tell you it bad but not how bad - the minds usually think the extreme.