Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[vikings123]

Q3 was a massive record. Delivery FUD, that took advantage of the average person's lack of understanding about delivery logistics, was used to drop the SP and trigger margin calls and stop losses.

I expect this again, along the lines of"
"Tesla delivers record cars in Q4, but inventory builds."


The spinsters have decades of experience manipulating the stupid masses, they will sell this as a negative, despite record deliveries, record production, and other autos shrinking across the board with few exceptions.

Record deliveries yes but to be fair we missed estimates and the stock got hit. Elon's Twitter antics and subsequent sales have created a perfect storm.

Q4 could be great or we might miss estimates again. I feel like the range is very wide. We play the game where Wall St. makes the rules. So there is no point in calling out the record numbers.

Is 150 fair value for TSLA? Hell no but the climb back up will be spectacular if Tesla continues to execute. Just be prepared for more pain. I feel like hedging here would be stupid but I also don't know where the bottom is if we miss Q4 expectations. China Covid could affect deliveries if things get worse. I want to see inventory drawdown quickly here in the US.

 

[juanmedina]

Q3 was a massive record. Delivery FUD, that took advantage of the average person's lack of understanding about delivery logistics, was used to drop the SP and trigger margin calls and stop losses.

Yes Q3 was record but we still missed the delivery consensus. So far there is good chance that we will meet the delivery consensus for Q4 and I am banking on the stock raise between P&D to ER to hedge my portfolio.

 

[BornToFly]

In a conversation with another member with family in China, I learned that the new incentives were in response to Covid cases in China doing a real number on economic activity. Tons of sick people, and ‘healthy people”self quarantining due to fear of getting sick. This could impact Q4.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I expect this again, along the lines of"
"Tesla delivers record cars in Q4, but inventory builds."


The spinsters have decades of experience manipulating the stupid masses, they will sell this as a negative, despite record deliveries, record production, and other autos shrinking across the board with few exceptions.

yes, but somewhere EPS has to kick in, alas not where we think and the hedgefunds really got it going their way. Maybe follow short interest Delta to get a clue when they won't pay for FUD anymore?

 

[BornToFly]

Maybe follow short interest Delta to get a clue when they won't pay for FUD anymore?

How do you track that?

 

[bkp_duke]

yes, but somewhere EPS has to kick in, alas not where we think and the hedgefunds really got it going their way. Maybe follow short interest Delta to get a clue when they won't pay for FUD anymore?

Problem is we don't know when EPS would kick in. Many thought that would be Q3 at the latest.

Fact is that this is a rigged game, we are not in control.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Last bar is november 30. Think a new one would be shorter, but still higher then usual. So keep hanging on!

Source added: short-interest

[Edit] But see # 23,890, this graph is not correct. In Dollars there is no jump on aug 31. it's the split that messed up the graph [/Edit]

 

[SpeedyEddy]

in hindsight we could have known because aug 31 was the first (significant) high bar. So at 276 SP
[Edit) False info see # 23,890 [/Edit]

 

[mongo]

Last bar is november 30. Think a new one would be shorter, but still higher then usual. So keep hanging on!
View attachment 886758
Source added: short-interest

in hindsight we could have known because aug 31 was the first (significant) high bar. So at 276 SP

That chart is not split adjusted. Need to 3x the value from Q3 back.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I Thought: It is in billions of dollars, but isn't it?
Answer, something is wrong with that graph, because @mongo is right:
Bezinga has this in sharecount:

Sorry for giving bad info... Not totally my bad, because in dollars a split does not affect this
FYI Benzinga makes sort of the same mistake @ 08/25/2022 Float after split, volume before split. so 0.78% is incorrect

 

[corduroy]

Why not? STO IC 12/23 175/185/135/125 .70

 

[mongo]

I Thought: It is in billions of dollars, but isn't it?
Answer, something is wrong with that graph, because @mongo is right:
Bezinga has this in sharecount:
View attachment 886767
Sorry for giving bad info... Not totally my bad, because in dollars a split does not affect this
FYI Benzinga makes sort of the same mistake @ 08/25/2022 Float after split, volume before split. so 0.78% is incorrect

The stock prices were back adjusted, but not share counts. So short shares/float shares is still correct along with short shares/ daily volume, but priceb(changed)*short shares(not changed) is wrong.

 

[Yoona]

i had -p175 before EM's selling, which i rolled it into BPS -p160/+p140 this week with credit

12/23 -p160/+p140 rolled again into same day 12/23 -p145/+p135/-c170/+c190, 0.57 credit

OTM probability now 61% instead of 17% last week

 

[OrthoSurg]

pre-market opened at +4%, so looks like today is bounce day..

It seems every deep green premarket converted into big bad red

 

[OrthoSurg]

Can’t believe we again went from +5% premarket to near -2%

I rolled my 155CC to 175CC at market open for $0.60 credit 3 weeks out, for absolutely nothing!

 

[dc_h]

Glad I sold my CC's early. It is going to get harder to push out my BPS 175-165. Small position, but annoying to lose that. It seemed conservative 2 weeks ago. Could have sold 20 more. Will wait for a hoped for bounce before selling more calls. Shallow markets this week, so rebalancing and light trading make for easy times for market makers. They could push for down, force sales and then bounce it back up later in the week and keep picking up pennies along the way.

 

[dc_h]

Can’t believe we again went from +5% premarket to near -2%

I rolled my 155CC to 175CC at market open for $0.60 credit 3 weeks out, for absolutely nothing!

I'm not selling anything outside the week. Probably futile, but keep hoping for some good news.

 

[vwman111]

How is everyone dealing with their deep ITM BPS that are being exercised?
1. Try and roll out an extra year, flat or slightly more ITM for a small credit?
2. Stay in LEAP territory, but roll down to be less ITM for a debit?
3. Roll to Jan - Mar 23 timeframe, and hope and pray ther is a bounce.

While i would not usually go for #3 as risk increases with shorter time frame, the BPS are being assigned leaving me with permanent losses and no way to reenter a position.

 

[BornToFly]

I was going to close CCs going to China weekly delivery numbers tomorrow, but now I will keep them until expiration on Friday. Maybe even roll them down tomorrow if the SP doesn't bounce.

 

[BornToFly]

BPS are being assigned leaving me with permanent losses and no way to reenter a position.

Join the club. BPSs have caused me to lose 90% of my wealth now. Either take the loss or roll to Jan 2024 with strikes as low as possible so they don't get assigned early again. Many of us had strikes in the low 300s assigned last week for Jan 2024 already.