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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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It’s called the hindsight bias.
The one peculiar thing with hingsight bias is that once you know what happened you don’t remember the state of mind you were before knowing what you know. So everything seems more obvious once you know.
WellI do recall my state of mind, I'd term it "euphoric greed" ;)
 
I have a sold PUT that was ITM just to see how that behaved. Unfortunately, I did it just before the big drop.
It was a NOV 19 1200P, that I "panic-rolled" yesterday one week (to NOV 26) at a strike improvement. Unfortunately, the only strike I could do without paying was 1190. So I am now short one Nov 26 1190P that I'm planning to keep rolling until it can expire worthless.

What would my timing be for rolling it further out?
Just as examples with stale prices:
No cost roll to shoot for expiration OTM (no guarantee you won't be assigned early):
Dec 17 1165 for $25 strike improvement
Jan 1125 for $65 strike improvement
June 1000 for $190 strike improvement
 
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I have a sold PUT that was ITM just to see how that behaved. Unfortunately, I did it just before the big drop.
It was a NOV 19 1200P, that I "panic-rolled" yesterday one week (to NOV 26) at a strike improvement. Unfortunately, the only strike I could do without paying was 1190. So I am now short one Nov 26 1190P that I'm planning to keep rolling until it can expire worthless.

What would my timing be for rolling it further out?
All depends on the IV for particular strikes, TBH, so just keep your eyes open

In a typical trading week, an ATM put typically rolls for somewhere between $6-13, for ITM strikes the increase in premium can be a lot less, like $2-3, or perhaps the ability to move a couple of strikes closer to the money

That being said, yesterday I was able to roll 20x 11/12 p1155's to 11/19 for +$20, which was just too good to pass on

You can always look a couple of weeks out too. possible this pull-back won't clear up until the run-in to Q4 results

In order to avoid the risk of early assignment, try to roll while there's still some time-value and don't leave until the expiry Friday, sort it out at the latest by Thursday
 
I thought you guys may bookmark


It is one of the more frequented direct markets in Germany. Trading 7-22h daily (1am-4pm in new York) and also some hours on weekends - Saturday morning and Sunday evening iirc.

Live quotes and everything. And more volume than i.e. Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, etc. So often indicative of the premarket in the US. As soon an us opens that will dominate - but it is another source of information in addition to i.e. ftx-tokens like TSLA/USDT or so on crypto exchanges.

At least it helps me a bit with planning.

If you want to trade it: the ticker for TSLA in EUR is TL0 and you can trade it on ibkr for example. 😉

No options in Europe, though. But may be an escape for an early hedge if things go against you.
Thanks for the link. Scared the bejesus out of me because I’m up 2 hours early today and took me a minute to notice it was in Euros.
 
Yeah, I have a good amount of medium term options that I bought when TSLA was in the 6s and 7s. Sold a couple too early and none when I should have. The first ones due are in Sep 22 so I am inclined to see them play out but phooey.

Anyone feel my Nov 12 845/775 BPS may be in play? Would like to say I am confident about another 20 % drop in three days, but I have to admit losing mid 7 figures in one day shakes me up even though it did not even exist a month ago. Thought I was dabbling on the extreme fringes playing with strikes 30% removed for the spreads, but don’t like the idea of having 700K exposed and not being able to monitor as I am doing this ‘on the side’ during my day.

I don’t know how TSLA ends up for me in the long term, but it seems a key to making money is the ability to shrug off losses. With TSLA it has been for me that the more sudden and extreme losses I tolerate, the more I am rewarded down the line. Used to be five figure and then six figure swings 😂. When it is going up it is all clouds and dopamine, but when it is going down I suddenly begin calculating all the real world salaries and objects I have lost and hammer myself for not appreciating the hardships of the world. Think I need help 🤪😜.
 
I have a sold PUT that was ITM just to see how that behaved. Unfortunately, I did it just before the big drop.
It was a NOV 19 1200P, that I "panic-rolled" yesterday one week (to NOV 26) at a strike improvement. Unfortunately, the only strike I could do without paying was 1190. So I am now short one Nov 26 1190P that I'm planning to keep rolling until it can expire worthless.

What would my timing be for rolling it further out?
I have $1200 P's for this week - they are cash secured and I plan on rolling them for the most credit I can get vs. strike improvement.
If they stay in the money I will be rolling on Wednesday's maybe out 2 weeks at a time to keep enough time value in them.
I initially received $62 each for them 1200 - 62 = 1138 strike
If I can get another $30 each to roll them that brings my cost basis for the shares down to 1108
A couple of more rolls and I can buy the shares for under $1k which would be nice, and by that time I can throw them on the wheel and sell some calls against them.
Mine started ITM or as I put it initially - slightly OTM on the wrong side..... :p
I wanted to go through this experiment to see how I dealt with it emotionally, and this drop certainly helped get the juices flowing.

Sold some 11/19 $850's P's yesterday for $16 each too. which I thought was crazy good, but the IV is incredible now and allowing me to stay with straight puts instead of spreads which makes rolling so much easier.

*note* this is being done with cash secured puts for the $1200's and half cash/margin for the $850's - less than 20% of capital/margin deployed in case we keep heading down I plenty of room to party.
If IV drops soon, I will be looking to add leaps right at $1250 but IV is keeping them high right now.
Bargains are coming on leaps, be patient.
 
Just as examples with stale prices:
No cost roll to shoot for expiration OTM (no guarantee you won't be assigned early):
Dec 17 1165 for $25 strike improvement
Jan 1125 for $65 strike improvement
June 1000 for $190 strike improvement
Thank you for explaining the risk of early assignment and thus max loss... it makes it hard for me to keep rolling...Maybe I Buy To Close at a loss. If I BTC now rather than hit max loss I'll "save about 20%. Idk what to do here other than put in a market order, though I know I will get demolished. My fear is that I put in a bid order and things just move too fast on my 11/19 ITm BPS.
 
I have some BPS -780/+680 and -750/+650 for this week, not sure if I should just roll to next week for same/lower strike to take some credit while IV is high at the moment?

After the news of Elon's selling, I was thinking Monday would be a blood bath and if luckily not, I would sell my shares if it hit 1200 on Monday (max was only around 1196). Then I was thinking to sell today during pre-market/open if it hits 1200. Well, turns out today is a blood bath and no way back. (to look back, I feel dumb not selling on Monday. When SP > 1200, Elon said there is no contract being signed with Hertz. And during weekend, Elon's tweet about selling shares and SP was also > 1200)

If there is a bounce on Wednesday, not sure if it's still wise to sell if it hit 1100.
My not-advice opinion is that those strikes are fine. I would roll them to next week for credit. If you are nervous you can see if you still get credit going to 700/600. After Q3 results I think a stock price of 700 for TSLA is way too low and we won't drop that far.
 
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Yeah, I have a good amount of medium term options that I bought when TSLA was in the 6s and 7s. Sold a couple too early and none when I should have. The first ones due are in Sep 22 so I am inclined to see them play out but phooey.

Anyone feel my Nov 12 845/775 BPS may be in play? Would like to say I am confident about another 20 % drop in three days, but I have to admit losing mid 7 figures in one day shakes me up even though it did not even exist a month ago. Thought I was dabbling on the extreme fringes playing with strikes 30% removed for the spreads, but don’t like the idea of having 700K exposed and not being able to monitor as I am doing this ‘on the side’ during my day.

I don’t know how TSLA ends up for me in the long term, but it seems a key to making money is the ability to shrug off losses. With TSLA it has been for me that the more sudden and extreme losses I tolerate, the more I am rewarded down the line. Used to be five figure and then six figure swings 😂. When it is going up it is all clouds and dopamine, but when it is going down I suddenly begin calculating all the real world salaries and objects I have lost and hammer myself for not appreciating the hardships of the world. Think I need help 🤪😜.
I would normally roll on Thursday anyway, so you could see how things are shaping up and just roll them today for next week. Maybe roll them as far down as you can for zero credit so you sleep better until this drop is over.
 
Thank you for explaining the risk of early assignment and thus max loss... it makes it hard for me to keep rolling...Maybe I Buy To Close at a loss. If I BTC now rather than hit max loss I'll "save about 20%. Idk what to do here other than put in a market order, though I know I will get demolished. My fear is that I put in a bid order and things just move too fast on my 11/19 ITm BPS.
Non advice
Are you in spread vs only a sold put?
If only a put, max lost is really at a stock price of zero. As long as there is time value, the risk of assignment is less. So it's likely lower risk to roll down in strike vs for a credit, but both can be done.

Regardless, I'd suggest a limit order, even if higher than the current ask. Market could end up at any price.
 
Non advice
Are you in spread vs only a sold put?
If only a put, max lost is really at a stock price of zero. As long as there is time value, the risk of assignment is less. So it's likely lower risk to roll down in strike vs for a credit, but both can be done.

Regardless, I'd suggest a limit order, even if higher than the current ask. Market could end up at any price.
Put spread...limit order will be wise. I have 11/19 ITm so I guess I'll wait for what next week brings.
My 11/12 ITM BPS...I can 1)try to hold on to roll them Thursday, 2) BTC for loss, 3) Max loss.
This was hard... but I will live another day.

I may just invest in a QQQ tracking index after all this.
 
Here is the chart from the first Quarter after the big jump up. If we stay green today, do not assume the drop is over and chase the SP back up. I would stay away from it for the next couple weeks.
IMG_0184.jpg
 
Small example of what not to do…

Had 950/900 bps expiring 11/12. Saw 1020 support being broken in premarket, so expected another down day. Bought back 950 puts right at the open for $13, and held the 900’s. Watched them get around $12 thinking I was a genius, and then the reversal happened, lol. Wasn’t a big position, but we’ll see what the day brings…