Russia/Ukraine conflict

[growler23]

About $60B is designated for Ukraine from the aid bill. A good chunk of that will go toward restocking depleted US military stockpiles, though. The $1B in weapons to Ukraine is just the first installment.

That is my understanding as well. Remember, a lot of this $60B is backfill for the US military. It seems that we had a bunch of materiel that we could not part with until this bill passed, but the instant it passed, we could ship this materiel knowing that the funds to backfill it were now approved.
It sounds like the Biden folks prepositioned it in Europe, waiting for months, so that it could get into Ukraine as fast as possible.

 

[Crutonius]

Help out an uninformed non American. So the bill only has 1 billion of military aid for Ukraine?

The bill is for 61 billion. But not all at once. You can expect to see quite a few announcements like this over the next year or so.

 

[DanCar]

Help out an uninformed non American. So the bill only has 1 billion of military aid for Ukraine?

There will be many more gifts coming over the next 18 months. Hopefully we can give the Ukrainian people some Apache's to have fun with and some A-10 warthogs. What else do we have rotting in the desert?

 

[lolachampcar]

Thank you.
I just witnessed for the first time ever our entire extended family, at dinner, simultaneously choke and guffaw.
You’re not wholly to blame: I’ll take 50% of that by being the one to recite to them your comment.

You are feeding this......

 

[madodel]

The US has been pre-positioning ammunition, missiles and othe arms in Europe to provide Ukraine these supplies as soon as the bill was passed.

Ukraine uses long-range ATACMS against Russia for the first time

 

[DanCar]

Russians are nice people /s

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

Russian soldier: Quite nice of them , they only killed five civilians.

 

[wdolson]

ATACMS already being used in Ukraine according to anonymous U.S. officials and national security council official. Used to attack Crimea and Russian helicopters. Similar articles:

1. Ukraine uses long-range ATACMS against Russia for the first time
2. Ukraine uses long-range missiles secretly provided by US to hit Russian-held areas, officials say
3. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-quietly-shipped-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-2024-04-24/
4. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/us-ukraine-russia-missiles.html
6. Ukraine uses long-range ATACMS against Russia for the first time

I suggested to my partner that there may have been a US military rep "holding on" to the missiles in Ukraine and as soon as they heard the bill was signed they handed them over to the Ukrainians in the field.

Help out an uninformed non American. So the bill only has 1 billion of military aid for Ukraine?

The US has done several authorizations totally about $41 billion. Each time money was authorized, the administration would send supplies to Ukraine and charge it against the money allocated. Last fall Biden asked for $60 billion for one year's supplies. The $1 billion sent today was the first allocation. We will probably see a few larger sends in the next few weeks as the US tries to fill Ukraine's stocks back up. But then we will see shipments in the hundred millions every few weeks or so. It will vary based on needs.

There seems to be a commitment now to give Ukraine enough to win, so the sends might be bigger. But if things return to the previous pattern we'll see batches worth a few hundred mil at a time.

The bulk of the money spent will be in the US. When they say $1 billion is being sent to Ukraine, virtually all that money is going to defense contractors in the US to build replacements for what was sent.

This war is giving the US military a number of upgrades. For example the US sent a number of AGM-88 HARM missiles. The US had a bunch of old variants which were slated for upgrading. Instead of paying to upgrade the missiles in the US stockpile, they sent the old missiles to Ukraine and ordered brand new missiles to replace them. In the end the US gets more up to date HARMS, just in a different way. Building new ones costs a bit more, but the end result is the same.

There will be many more gifts coming over the next 18 months. Hopefully we can give the Ukrainian people some Apache's to have fun with and some A-10 warthogs. What else do we have rotting in the desert?

A-10s could serve as missile trucks, but they would be very vulnerable to air defense if used in the anti-tank role. I think the days of the attack helicopter are over. At least in a near peer conflict.
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My partner came across this. An argument that the Ukrainians are, in fact, not ethnically Russian, but are Scandinavian

https://twitter.com/x/status/1312084812233093122

It's interesting that I'm genetically majority Swedish, with the rest being from north of the European continent too except for a tiny slice of Sardinian.

 

[AudubonB]

I didn’t think there was much debate that Vikings or pre-Viking traders founded Kyiv and Rus itself? That by no means determines the dominant genotypes emanate from there, of course.

 

[wdolson]

I didn’t think there was much debate that Vikings or pre-Viking traders founded Kyiv and Rus itself? That by no means determines the dominant genotypes emanate from there, of course.

I thought it was going to post the entire thread, but only one follow up past was included.

This is the relevant one

https://twitter.com/x/status/1312072307758727169

The data used for the map was concentrations of one Y chromosome haplotype type across Europe. These maps can be used to track migrations of populations over time. The "I" Y chromosome haplotype is very common in Scandinavia. Most men from that part of the world have a Y chromosome that branches from that. By looking at where it shows up outside of Scandinavia tells us where the Vikings were going and having children. And there are a large number of them in Ukraine, part of the Balkans, and Sardinia for some reason. The arc of medium blue on the map from St Petersburg down to Ukraine is the Swedish viking trade route.

 

[AudubonB]

Ah - all on the same page now, I’d say.

 

[Crutonius]

Poland is prepared to help Ukraine get draft-age men back â Polish Defence Ministry

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has said that Poland is ready to help Ukraine get men of military age back to âfulfil their civic obligationâ.

www.pravda.com.ua

I'm worried this will be misinterpreted but I think this is a good thing.

If I put myself in their position, suppose I escaped early in the war with my family. Maybe I'm sort of torn, I feel a responsibility to fight but I don't want to die and my family doesn't want me to leave. It would be really compelling to just sit it out. But if I get a draft notice that's enforced by my host nation I'd like to think I'd do the right thing and defend my country.

 

[kabin]

Poland is prepared to help Ukraine get draft-age men back â Polish Defence Ministry

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has said that Poland is ready to help Ukraine get men of military age back to âfulfil their civic obligationâ.

www.pravda.com.ua

I'm worried this will be misinterpreted but I think this is a good thing.

If I put myself in their position, suppose I escaped early in the war with my family. Maybe I'm sort of torn, I feel a responsibility to fight but I don't want to die and my family doesn't want me to leave. It would be really compelling to just sit it out. But if I get a draft notice that's enforced by my host nation I'd like to think I'd do the right thing and defend my country.

Good for Poland. Military age Ukrainian men in Poland are gaming the system at a time when Poland is considering sending their men into Western Ukraine. When war broke there was ~350k military age Ukrainian men in Poland. Some urgently crossed after war broke. Some also crossed the Moldova border.

About 6 months ago the BBC reported an estimated 20k Ukrainian men crossed the border to avoid the draft. Another estimated 21k attempted to cross but were caught. That doesn't include those with military exemptions such as those who bribed corrupt Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine's average military age is 40 and they recently lowered conscription age to include 25yr olds. They are trying to avoid younger men as they believe it would adversely impact the economy.

 

[BitJam]

Anders Puck Nielsen - Will Munitions being Shipped to Ukraine at Scale Help Turn the Tide of War?

too many insights to quote or list.

 

[DanCar]

too many insights to quote or list.

could list a few

 

[BitJam]

could list a few

Good point. Thanks. I should have said I was too busy.

 

[DanCar]

Good news coming tomorrow morning, $6 billion in new weapons for Ukraine. Article says it may takes years to fulfill all of it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/25/us-weapons-contract-ukraine-00154450

Quote:
The equipment — which also includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems — likely won’t arrive in Ukraine for several years, as the money is being allocated under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Under USAI, the Pentagon issues contracts to American defense firms to build new equipment for Ukraine, as opposed to drawing from current U.S. stocks.

 

[AudubonB]

Talk of Ukraine’s draft dredged up this from the Oligocene and my days as a tadpole. Certainly the earback-dry crowd will remember this, even though I’ve changed the lyrics enough to protect the innocent…and perhaps me from buck-nekkid plagiarism*.
Besides, the words and meter are so beautifully written, I am fairly sure that those who are too young ever to have been exposed to it will nonetheless find it easy to move with its flow.

I'm just a typical Ukrainian boy
From a typical Ukrainian town
I believe in God and President Volod
And puttin' old Putin down
And when it came my time to serve
I knew "better dead than red"
But when I got to my old draft board
This is what I said

Sarge, I'm only eighteen, I got a ruptured spleen
And I always carry a purse
I got eyes like a bat and my feet are flat
And my asthma's getting worse
Sarge, think of my career, my sweetheart dear
And my poor old invalid aunt
Besides I ain't no fool, I'm going to school
And I'm working in a defense plant

I've got a dislocated disc and a wracked up back
I'm allergic to flowers and bugs
And when the bombshell hits I get epileptic fits
And I'm addicted to a thousand drugs
I got the weakness woes, I can't touch my toes
I can hardly reach my knees
And if the enemy came close to me
I'd probably start to sneeze

I hate Putin’s lies, and I hope he dies
But the thing I'm hoping you'll see
Is that someone's gotta serve on the front
But that someone isn't me
So I wish you well, Sarge, give 'em hell, yeah
Kill me a thousand or so
And if you ever get a war without blood and gore
I'll be the first to go!

*Besides, I’m 1/3 of the population of PAXSON! That must count…for something!

 

[Tiger]

Talk of Ukraine’s draft dredged up this from the Oligocene and my days as a tadpole. Certainly the earback-dry crowd will remember this, even though I’ve changed the lyrics enough to protect the innocent…and perhaps me from buck-nekkid plagiarism*.
Besides, the words and meter are so beautifully written, I am fairly sure that those who are too young ever to have been exposed to it will nonetheless find it easy to move with its flow.

I'm just a typical Ukrainian boy
From a typical Ukrainian town
I believe in God and President Volod
And puttin' old Putin down
And when it came my time to serve
I knew "better dead than red"
But when I got to my old draft board
This is what I said

Sarge, I'm only eighteen, I got a ruptured spleen
And I always carry a purse
I got eyes like a bat and my feet are flat
And my asthma's getting worse
Sarge, think of my career, my sweetheart dear
And my poor old invalid aunt
Besides I ain't no fool, I'm going to school
And I'm working in a defense plant

I've got a dislocated disc and a wracked up back
I'm allergic to flowers and bugs
And when the bombshell hits I get epileptic fits
And I'm addicted to a thousand drugs
I got the weakness woes, I can't touch my toes
I can hardly reach my knees
And if the enemy came close to me
I'd probably start to sneeze

I hate Putin’s lies, and I hope he dies
But the thing I'm hoping you'll see
Is that someone's gotta serve on the front
But that someone isn't me
So I wish you well, Sarge, give 'em hell, yeah
Kill me a thousand or so
And if you ever get a war without blood and gore
I'll be the first to go!

*Besides, I’m 1/3 of the population of PAXSON! That must count…for something!

Drones, drones, drones. Soon maybe humanoid drones.

 

[wdolson]

Drones, drones, drones. Soon maybe humanoid drones.

Humanoid drones will probably consume a lot more energy than the quadcopters in use on the frontline now. It's almost like comparing the energy consumption of a laptop to an EV car. Carrying a large enough battery to keep going long enough might be difficult. Also charging them near the frontline might also be a problem.

 

[Tiger]

Humanoid drones will probably consume a lot more energy than the quadcopters in use on the frontline now. It's almost like comparing the energy consumption of a laptop to an EV car. Carrying a large enough battery to keep going long enough might be difficult. Also charging them near the frontline might also be a problem.

True, but maybe humanoid drones will just operate things like tanks, mobile launchers, etc. without the risk of loss of operating personnel.