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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Late last year the new Ukrainian sea drone "Cossack Mamai" was announced. I'm not saying this is what was definitely used in the Ivanovets attack, but it's supposedly capable of a top speed approaching 70mph so would be faster than anything else in the Black Sea.
5 of those simultaneously bearing down on a ship would stretch their defences somewhat. Even if conditions greatly limited they speed at the time of the attack.

It seems from various reports that Ukraine is now reaching very high volumes of production of all drone types, expecially FPVs.
Traditional Artillery shortages might become irrelevant soon. Short and medium range targets (and a few long range) will be smothered by drone swarms.
Long range and larger targets will be taken care of by (hopefully) continuing supplies of HIMARS, ATACMS, GLSDB, Storm Shadow and I hope, eventually, Taurus missiles.

If UKR can make enough sea drones over the next few months, the Black Sea Fleet may not exist by the end of this year.

Not my favorite news source, but this article detailing the 6 magura v5 drone attack on the Ivanovets seems informative.

 
Allegedly:

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Your final, absolute, sentence (use of “always”) hardly is hyperbole. The existence of and distribution through the Pamir Knot is demonstrably critical in the development of Homo sapiens and its dissemination of its self, its early cultures and its innovations - indubitably including such societal building blocks as language, hunting and possibly primitive agricultural practices.
The seemingly endless steppes’ ease of travel therethrough - ease compared to mountainous and broad-river lands - means that large masses of humans have been traversing…”invading” being the way the extant observer would consider that…not for thousands of generations but tens of thousands. That’s as good as “always” as it gets. And it is not much of a stretch from there to consider such as being in their genes. Most absolutely in their “cultural genes”, define that how you may.

Zooming to the immediate present - let’s say, only the most recent millennium - brings me to this statement of yours…(cont’d)

My partner has an MS in Psychology and works with people who have trauma. Usually people who are in the legal system because of it. One thing she has been studying lately is epigenetics. Studies on mice have found that if a mouse is traumatized in some way, their children will react with fear at the same sort of trauma the first time they encounter it. The grandchildren will too.

It sounds like 19th century psychbabble, but it's proving to be true. Studies on human populations are more difficult to pin down because humans can't be raised in a lab with their whole lives controlled, but it appears humans can suffer from it too. She has a friend who is Jewish and has lived her entire life in San Francisco. Her parents were Holocaust survivors and the recent war in Israel has caused her to completely melt down. Normally she's a "kumbyya" type who is all for inclusion of everyone, but since Oct 7 she has become rabidly anti-Arab.

There is probably some epigenetic trauma in the Russians too. The German invasion of 1941 is fading from living memory, but there are quite a few Russians who are children of the war generation still around. The geographical vulnerability of their country and the trauma it has caused through the centuries may be baked into their DNA now.


That policy seems to resonate in America with those that are struggling to get by.

There has always been an undercurrent of isolationism within the US. Non-Americans often comment about how provincial American tourists can be in their countries.

Geography contributed to this. Thanks to the resource base of the US and it's location, the US was able to build up into a superpower without really needing to interact with the outside world to the degree most other world powers had to. Both Russia and the United States conquered a continent, but Russia's task was subduing a somewhat large native population in Asia along the way. The Americans only had to conquer the land, the continent they were conquering was sparsely populated by a people with a dramatically poorer technological level.

The United States enjoys having a significant part of the country in the sweet zone for farming, being rich in other natural resources, and having a natural water transportation system that is the best in the world. The Ohio/Missouri/Mississippi river system drains the interior of the continent and most of those rivers are navigable throughout. That allowed farmers deep in the interior to get their goods to the ocean port at New Orleans before railroad existed. Then the barrier islands that line most of the south and east coast allowed a salt water inland waterway to the east coast cities. The Columbia and Sacramento rivers in the west also allowed goods to travel to ocean ports. Even today 40% of the grain exported from the US comes down the Columbia River by barge and is loaded onto ships in Portland.

Canada is stuck with the Canadian Shield which is poor for farm land as well as harsher winters and only the man-made St Lawrence Waterway as a route to the sea. Mexico also lacks a river network.

So the US has always enjoyed safety to develop along its own lines more or less free of interference from the outside world. The immediate neighbors were never a military threat after 1812 and the rest of the world had no hope of becoming a military threat.

The US became a somewhat provincial place which was concerned about its own internal issues much more than they were concerned about the rest of the world because the rest of the world was no threat. The development of nuclear weapons changed that, but almost 200 years of isolation is embedded in the national psyche. Especially deep in the interior.

The coasts tend to be more aware of the outside world and have more interaction with them. That's one of the factors dividing the country politically. The people the interior call the "coastal elites" are more outwardly focused and pay more attention to what's happening in the world whereas the people of the interior while still knowing some of what's happening in the world, they have historically been less interested in what the world outside the US borders have to offer.

One party has played on that isolationist streak among their constituents and amplified it to 11. After 70 years of the US being a part of the world because it was the "free" world's stabilizing force, those same people are now in favor of the US taking its marbles and going home.

When a country is the world's biggest economy, it can't afford to be isolationist. If the US had taken a leading role after WW I like it did after WW II, WW II may not have happened. Britain and France didn't want the US in a leading role and between US not being used to being in the spotlight and Woodrow Wilson getting very ill during the peace talks, the US became hyper isolationist instead of stepping up which left a power vacuum. Britain and France were still strong powers, but the war had taken a lot out of both countries and they were unable and unwilling to stop Hitler in time.

Putin's propaganda machine saw this strain of isolationism growing in the US and plugged into the forces driving it, amplifying it even further. Putin is poor when it comes to military matters, but he is very good at cultivating psi-ops. Russian propaganda has found fault lines in the politics of many western countries and amplified them.
 
It sounds like 19th century psychbabble

Indeed. DNA post translational processing (AKA epigenetics) has been known about a long time. So now it's a grant fad.

Studies on mice have found that if a mouse is traumatized in some way, their children will react with fear at the same sort of trauma the first time they encounter it.

What is it with psychologists and their pre-occupation with torturing mice ?
The young mice grew up with their mothers, I presume ? This would be parental education, not voodoo. Successive generations of Russians instill an ideology of Aryanism and dog eat dog mentality. Is this supposed to be newsworthy ?
 
Indeed. DNA post translational processing (AKA epigenetics) has been known about a long time. So now it's a grant fad.



What is it with psychologists and their pre-occupation with torturing mice ?
The young mice grew up with their mothers, I presume ? This would be parental education, not voodoo. Successive generations of Russians instill an ideology of Aryanism and dog eat dog mentality. Is this supposed to be newsworthy ?

I believe they controlled for this by raising the offspring with a mother who had not been traumatized.

The torture of mice by Psychologists is kind of disturbing. My partner as an undergrad in rat lab had to teach a rat something. Most had them run mazes and such, she taught hers (names Ralph) to dance. Her professor was not amused, but she got high marks anyway.

I was hoping Lex was going to get this gig.

Why would the Biden administration be in panic over this? The only people who will see the interview are those who already drank the Kool Aid and are in lock step with Russian propaganda already and some journalists viewing to be informed. Carlson's following is very limited in the grand scheme of things. At most his interview will be a brief curiosity, but nothing more.

Putin isn't censored in the US. Anyone who wants to know what he's saying has full access to anything he says or other publicly know information about him. Outside of conservative media he doesn't get very favorable treatment by the media (for good reason).
 
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Why would the Biden administration be in panic over this? The only people who will see the interview are those who already drank the Kool Aid and are in lock step with Russian propaganda already and some journalists viewing to be informed. Carlson's following is very limited in the grand scheme of things. At most his interview will be a brief curiosity, but nothing more.

Putin isn't censored in the US. Anyone who wants to know what he's saying has full access to anything he says or other publicly know information about him. Outside of conservative media he doesn't get very favorable treatment by the media (for good reason).

X is just a troll cesspool for everyone with an insane agenda. How many countries are allowed to have a purely propaganda channel like Ruzzia Today to warp minds in favor of their mass murdering psychopath?
 
There is a little know law in the US that allows the president to declare any military hardware surplus and donate it to an ally. Biden did this with some gear given to Greece this week with a handshake deal that Greece would be passing on some equipment they no longer need to Ukraine. In 2023 Congress passed a bill that allows the first 42 A-10s to be retired this year. The plan is to upgrade two A-10 squadrons to F-35As by 2029.

I am puzzled as to why the US isn't leveraging this "Excess Defense Articles" (EDA) authority more widely. I see no reason it couldn't be used to donate defense equipment directly to Ukraine and circumvent congress entirely. If you go on DOD's website, you can see it has been sending this type of gear to all kinds of non-NATO countries such as Israel, Egypt, Croatia, Chile, Argentina, just to name a few... For example Brazil received 60 M109A5 Self propelled howitzers in 2018.
 
From today’s Guardian Ukraine war news feed:

  • Belgium is asking G7 countries to consider using €260n in seized Russian assets held by the west as collateral for loans to Ukraine, according to a report in the Financial Times. This would avoid questions around the legality of seizing the assets outright, as has also been considered by Ukraine’s allies, according to the paper.

 
I am puzzled as to why the US isn't leveraging this "Excess Defense Articles" (EDA) authority more widely. I see no reason it couldn't be used to donate defense equipment directly to Ukraine and circumvent congress entirely. If you go on DOD's website, you can see it has been sending this type of gear to all kinds of non-NATO countries such as Israel, Egypt, Croatia, Chile, Argentina, just to name a few... For example Brazil received 60 M109A5 Self propelled howitzers in 2018.

I believe the law is limited to $500 million to a single country in a year. The administration may be holding back in giving directly to Ukraine for an emergency.

“US deep state…”

What ever happened to the folks who were 100% sure that “pizzagate” was real?

/S

They moved on to newer conspiracy theories.

Aside from politics there is a slice of the population who wants to see the world through a magical lens rather than seeing things as they really are. I've known a number of people like that. And there are some weird things in the world and some phenomena we haven't really explained, but almost all the time Occam's Razor explains most things.

Back in the 1990s I used to listen to a late night radio show here in the US called Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell. There were some eye rolling topics, but also some pretty interesting subjects. It was more interesting than anything else on in the late evenings. He would also do open lines where people would call in. There were some pretty kooky people who called in with some pretty wild ideas about phenomena as well as politics. Back then the president was Bill Clinton and these people believed all the most crazy conspiracy theories about the Clintons.

Fast forward 25-30 years and I see the same sorts of people touting the "deep state" theories, Qanon, and everything else. Often they can end up holding contradictory beliefs. I've often seen them tout complex deep state theories, and then a short time later describe the same people they were calling sinister Svengalis as bumbling idiots who couldn't find their backside with both hands and a map.

There are people who are brilliant in one area and hopeless in others, but to be both a genius and an idiot in the same area is a level of talent I've never encountered.