Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Dangerous Fish]

I'd wager that most of those drones were doing 25 knots or better.

Late last year the new Ukrainian sea drone "Cossack Mamai" was announced. I'm not saying this is what was definitely used in the Ivanovets attack, but it's supposedly capable of a top speed approaching 70mph so would be faster than anything else in the Black Sea.
5 of those simultaneously bearing down on a ship would stretch their defences somewhat. Even if conditions greatly limited they speed at the time of the attack.

It seems from various reports that Ukraine is now reaching very high volumes of production of all drone types, expecially FPVs.
Traditional Artillery shortages might become irrelevant soon. Short and medium range targets (and a few long range) will be smothered by drone swarms.
Long range and larger targets will be taken care of by (hopefully) continuing supplies of HIMARS, ATACMS, GLSDB, Storm Shadow and I hope, eventually, Taurus missiles.

If UKR can make enough sea drones over the next few months, the Black Sea Fleet may not exist by the end of this year.

 

[madodel]

Why are Russians still so successful with propaganda against the West?

OPINION: Decrease in US Support for Ukraine Tied to Russian Intelligence Operations

A recently declassified US intelligence report shows a direct correlation between the current impasse in the US Congress on aid to Ukraine and Russian intelligence operations.

 

[navguy12]

Need to see confirmation on this, but if so Ukraine just keeps lighting-up Russian fossil fuel infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753624105947988428

While putin aims at hospitals and the like, glad to see Ukraine sticking to high value asset targets.

 

[AudubonB]

Came across this. Zeihan's conclusions are not great, but he does a good job in the first half describing the geographic realities of Asia and why Russia is nervous. Telling Russia that nobody is really interested in invading them falls on deaf ears. They look at history and see that somebody has invaded over and over again throughout history.

The ethnic Russian population is also in freefall leaving Russia in a situation where maintaining their empire is going to get more and more difficult as this century grinds on.

I'm skeptical that things will play out as he predicts, but to be in leadership in Russia and being paranoid about the borders goes hand in hand. It's always been that way.

Your final, absolute, sentence (use of “always”) hardly is hyperbole. The existence of and distribution through the Pamir Knot is demonstrably critical in the development of Homo sapiens and its dissemination of its self, its early cultures and its innovations - indubitably including such societal building blocks as language, hunting and possibly primitive agricultural practices.
The seemingly endless steppes’ ease of travel therethrough - ease compared to mountainous and broad-river lands - means that large masses of humans have been traversing…”invading” being the way the extant observer would consider that…not for thousands of generations but tens of thousands. That’s as good as “always” as it gets. And it is not much of a stretch from there to consider such as being in their genes. Most absolutely in their “cultural genes”, define that how you may.

Zooming to the immediate present - let’s say, only the most recent millennium - brings me to this statement of yours…(cont’d)

They look at history and see that somebody has invaded over and over again throughout history

 

[AudubonB]

…because to me the fine yet terrible irony is that those doing the invading have been the Russians themselves. More in next post - gotta go make breakfast. Edited to add desired material here rather than post anew:

A correction to the above map: The Japanese Kuriles - Etorofu, Shikotan, Kunashiri and the Habomai group - were seized in 1945. These are the ones hard by the northeast "manta ray's head" of Hokkaido.

 

[jerry33]

Why are Russians still so successful with propaganda against the West?

OPINION: Decrease in US Support for Ukraine Tied to Russian Intelligence Operations

In a word, politicians. Most are motivated only by money. The second cause is isolationism, if we ignore them they will keep to their own area and not bother us.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Why are Russians still so successful with propaganda against the West?

OPINION: Decrease in US Support for Ukraine Tied to Russian Intelligence Operations

Social media sites are a soft target for propagandists. The Russians have have been fine tuning their propaganda disseminating skills on their own people for decades.

 

[SageBrush]

Why are Russians still so successful with propaganda against the West?

Because it lands on fertile soil. E.g., trumpers are not particularly biased against Russia because Trump is a Putin admirer.

 

[DanCar]

Does America first policy mean Ukraine withers and dies?

 

[navguy12]

Does America first policy mean Ukraine withers and dies?

IMO “America First Policy” is simply a cover story to make putin’s wishes more politically palatable. Again IMO.

 

[DanCar]

IMO “America First Policy” is simply a cover story to make putin’s wishes more politically palatable. Again IMO.

That policy seems to resonate in America with those that are struggling to get by.

 

[Crutonius]

I think a lot of us learned the wrong lessons from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Russian propaganda capitalizes on this. I remember the start of the war.

It was immediately clear what happened. Ukraine was just minding their own business, eating borsch and in rolls Russian tanks. Anyone who has read a history book knows what happens if we let this slide. Obviously the free world needs to make defending Ukraine a priority. Obviously Russia is completely at fault here. A strong case could be made that this is a boots on the ground situation.

But then a lot of people who I previously respected immediately put the blame on the US, that NATO was the aggressor here. Noam Chomsky is the best example of this. I thought his message was international law and human rights. But no, it's just America bad. And now I feel like an idiot for ever taking their opinions seriously.

 

[navguy12]

That policy seems to resonate in America with those that are struggling to get by.

From today’s Toronto Star (free access link below):

A funny thing happened on the way to the New Hampshire primary last week. Nikki Haley, the former American ambassador to the UN, stopped talking about Ukraine. It was a subtle shift, but a telling one: Haley’s tacit admission that on Ukraine, Republican voters just don’t want to hear it anymore.

For the Republican Party under Donald Trump, supporting Ukraine, an American ally fighting for its existence against Russian invasion, has become a non-starter. Republicans in Congress have repeatedly blocked further American military aid to Ukraine since last year. If Trump wins the presidential election in November, he has made it abundantly clear he plans to abandon the country entirely…

…It’s hard to believe the omission was anything but calculated. After months of pitching the moral and political importance of saving an ally from total destruction, Haley was letting Ukraine slide.
She hasn’t announced a formal change in policy. She’s done nothing to indicate she now wants Russia to win. But as she positions herself for another run in 2028, she has accepted that Ukraine is not just another issue anymore. Like COVID and Taylor Swift, it has become a dividing line in American politics. You can’t compete if you’re on the other side…

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

 

[Tiger]

From today’s Toronto Star (free access link below):

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

"Haley, the dead canary on arrival at the cole mine." /s

 

[navguy12]

"Haley, the dead canary on arrival at the cole mine." /s

Perhaps.

Interestingly enough, according to Wikipedia:

On November 28, the Koch Network announced its endorsement of Nikki Haley.[83]

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Why is [the Russian Dictator and his minions] still so successful with propaganda against the West?

Religion/Christianity/'The Culture War' also seem to be a big part here. But unfortunately my insight into this is limited. Someone else perhaps feels like injecting?...

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'm not sure that religion itself is much of a factor- though the white evangelical vote is solidly pro Trump. The culture war stuff is also a favorite of that crowd, but I don't think pronouns have much bearing on Ukraine.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I'm not sure that religion itself is much of a factor- though the white evangelical vote is solidly pro Trump. The culture war stuff is also a favorite of that crowd, but I don't think pronouns have much bearing on Ukraine.

All pronouns that aren't 100% heterosexual seems to be 100% banned in the Dictator's Russia... And that seems to at least be one part of the white evangelical faction's wet dream...

 

[SmokyPeat]

All pronouns that aren't 100% heterosexual seems to be 100% banned in the Dictator's Russia... And that seems to at least be one part of the white evangelical factions wet dream...

I'd be surprised if many of that voting block know much of anything about Russian culture. They're just happy to support Trump as he proudly holds the Bible upside down annoits himself the orange MAGA idol.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I don't think stuff like this has happened before... Allegedly:

Ukrainian GUR reports that Tu-95 strategic bomber pilot Major Oleg Sergeevich Stegachyov was shot in the Russian city of Engels. He served as a pilot on Engels-2 airbase from which Tu-95 bombers often lift up. The GUR said he was directly involved in launching missiles on Ukraine.

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1753766497795653670?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753766497795653670