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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Although off topic, I did want to comment on the drone shielding subject.

Shielding will be in proportion to cost of the drone. 10k of cheap drones will have a simple faraday cage and inertial guidance once GPS integrity is lost (determined by comparing sets of satellites in view) making them very cheap and deployable in 10k numbers. They will be vulnerable to directed energy protection schemes but such schemes would be overwhelmed by the volume. Distributed energy schemes short of an EMP blast from a nuclear source will not be sufficient to stop a large percentage of the wave.

In short, it is not a black and white situation. It will be an arms race and the west has traditionally done well in arms races once engaged.
 
“Before Ukraine applied for membership of the EU, enlargement was a taboo topic within the EU. There was no major support from people. There were a lot of complexities in the Balkans. Ukraine has revived the discussion,” said Stefanishyna, describing the impact of the war on EU’s changed attitude to enlargement.

Such is the urgency attached to enlargement that Germany last week suggested that integration of Ukraine and others into the EU could be accelerated with membership benefits granted long before accession with some single market access and observer status at leadership summits.

 
In the interview airing on Sunday, Zelensky invited former U.S. President Donald Trump, a Republican, to visit Ukraine and see the fallout of the conflict initiated by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in February 2022.

Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2024 and is the leading candidate for his party’s presidential nomination, has been sharply critical of U.S. support for Kyiv and has said he could end the war in 24 hours if re-elected.

“If he can come here, I will need … 24 minutes to explain to President Trump that he can’t manage this war,” Zelensky said. “He can’t bring peace because of Putin.”

(Paywalled)

 
You guys are in a very different space to me. On one hand you say Ukraine is winning, on the other, Russia will takeover Europe. This was a miscalculation by Putin. He would not have entered this war if he knew how difficult it was going to be. He thought it would be like Crimea. He has been embarrassed. His forces have been crippled. He has shown his military to be weak (not that old NATO equipment has exactly excelled). There is a less than 5% chance they will attack another country so directly in the next 20 years. He will know that the west won't let him get away with this. Russia will likely start towing the line in a non oil economy and under new management.
And 3 years ago, what did we think was the chance Putin would attack Ukrain?
 
Photographs purportedly of the Russian Askold missile carrier that was destroyed in the Zaliv shipyard on 11/4/2023 in temporarily occupied Crimea have appeared. Sources say this was a "22800 Karakurt-type" missile ship capable of carrying up to 8 Kalibr missiles.

Doesn't look like that will buff out or otherwise be salvageable.


 
Nov 06, 2023 at 4:22 AM EST

Staff at Moscow's diplomatic missions in the West expelled due to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine have found it tough to get work upon their return to Russia, it has been reported.

Disgruntled diplomatic staff have signed a letter to Putin about their predicament. It is described as a personal tragedy for many, according to The Insider. The independent Russian-language investigative news outlet said the missive came from a source in the Russian presidential administration, although the names of its 11 signatories are blacked out. [...]

The Insider reported that some of the signatories to the letter said that the complaints had emanated "not from the officers themselves... but their wives," one of whom took offense at being advised to deliver pizzas. [...


 
We will probably see more NATO troops along the border with Russia in the near future.

In the early 1990s, NATO and Russia signed the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe to minimize building up military forces and equipment near mutual borders.

Russia exited the treaty last week so now NATO is doing the same in response.

NATO suspends key Cold War treaty after Russia pulls out – DW – 11/07/2023
 
According to RUSI's Prof. Justin Bronk the US has begun ramping up artillery shell production to sufficient levels. But Europe hasn't yet begun to do that(!)...
Yet people wonder why there are some American politicians that want to pull out of NATO.

If Russia invading and decimating a major European neighbor doesn't get Europe off their rears to get serious about defense spending, what will?