SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I'm guessing UKR has good enough intelligence to know whether Bakhmut is a good place to attack regardless of if this is an attempt at a feint or not...
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I'm guessing UKR has good enough intelligence to know whether Bakhmut is a good place to attack regardless of if this is an attempt at a feint or not...
Study your history . Last year they talked about retaking Kherson for months, they hammered the area with himars, they had significant forces staged. Russia reacted and moved troops. Ukraine attacks hundreds of miles north and clears Kharkiv and pushed through izium and threatens svatove and starbolisk at which point they had to pull out of Kherson.
Now none of us know what they will do but one thing is probably clear- they are not going to attack through a hell hole with significant defense. They worked all winter to concentrate Russian forces in bahkmut. The point is not to counter attack into those forces. The point is to act on another front that can’t be supported by the people in bahkmut. It is still a bit muddy north of bahkmut, dry in the south. Ukraine makes a big deal of announcing the curfew in Kherson , gov and mayors are telling people not to film. That means something to me. Russia responded by huge shelling. Wagner is concerned about getting isolated, they are bugging out. Crimea is full of orcs. Leaves 1 spot.
Now none of us know what they will do but one thing is probably clear- they are not going to attack through a hell hole with significant defense. They worked all winter to concentrate Russian forces in bahkmut. The point is not to counter attack into those forces. The point is to act on another front that can’t be supported by the people in bahkmut. It is still a bit muddy north of bahkmut, dry in the south. Ukraine makes a big deal of announcing the curfew in Kherson , gov and mayors are telling people not to film. That means something to me. Russia responded by huge shelling. Wagner is concerned about getting isolated, they are bugging out. Crimea is full of orcs. Leaves 1 spot.
Patrushev is arguing that the US wants to conquer Siberia due to an imminent volcanic mega eruption at Yellowstone, lol. It would be funnier if these crazy old Russians weren't in positions of power.
Ukraine is not going to throw anything more into Bakhmut then they have to. They can afford to send some extra troops. At this point the AFU has Russia outnumbered by a large margin. The Russians may have as many as 200K troops left in country, the real number is probably closer to 125K. Of those 125K, maybe 1/3 are front line combat troops. The rest are in aviation, supply, air defense, artillery, etc.
ChrisO had a series on what to expect in the offensive. It's in three parts in the Thread Reader
Part 1:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
Part 2:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
Part 3:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
In part 2 he mentions in passing that the Ukrainians are finding about 3-4 troops per 100 meters in the trenches. The Russians have 1000 Km of frontline. That works out to about 40K troops guarding the entire front except for Bakhmut where they have concentrated forces. That is in line with my estimate that I came to separately for how many combat troops Russia has left.
Contrast that with Ukraine who now have about 1.2 million troops in the AFU. The offensive capable units amount to about 125 brigades. 18 of these brigades are trained by NATO in Europe and are equipped with the best equipment available. They are probably heavily reinforced with engineering units and embedded artillery. NATO has trained about 60,000 troops and most are probably concentrated in these brigades which are more like division strength at this point.
The 18 heavily equipped brigades are organized into three corps and each corp is capable of a breakthrough of its own. One analysis I saw thought that the initial breakthrough would be doe by two corps. One would be tasked with breaching the first line of defense with the second one in immediate reserve. If the first corp gets bogged down, disorganized, or takes a lot of losses breaching the line, the second corps will flow through the gap and then we're off to the races. The second corp won't stop until it hits the next layer of organized Russian resistance.
If the first corps has an easy time getting through the defenses, then the second corps will be redirected elsewhere or will continue to be held back until needed.
Then the are another 106 brigades that have a mix of NATO and Soviet equipment, have been trained inside Ukraine, and are capable, but aren't trained in full out assault like the over strength brigades.
With these offensive capable units, Ukraine has about 350-500K troops. The rest of their forces are support forces and TDS units which are equipped with what was left over and have more minimal training. Ukraine has been holding the line in Bakhmut with a mix of TDS and some second line trained units. They can afford to throw a couple of second line units into Bakhmut to push back the Russians and shore up that part of the front.
Ukraine will not launch a major offensive from there because the terrain E-W in the Donbas is bad terrain to be trying to conduct an offensive. It's easy to defend lines E-W which is why the Russians have taken huge losses to only make a few KM gain along the entire front. The Donbas is very vulnerable to N-S attacks. If the Ukrainians launch an offensive in the Donbas it will start up around Svatove.
If the Russians really do only have 3-4 guys per 100m of trench, the Ukrainian assault will probably get through the first line of defense very easily. At that point the only concern would be mines and they now have a lot of mine clearing equipment. The Ukrainians will be concentrating an entire corps on the break out. A very wide front would be 1 KM. A more likely front would be 300-500 m. At most the Russians would have about 200 guys to stand up to the initial assault with reinforcements delayed because transportation will be paralyzed in the area.
In the first phase of the assault drones will pin point the location of all vehicles and all the guys in the trenches. They will kill or disable a number of the guys in the trenches with grenades dropped from drones. Artillery will pick off every vehicle found. A few well hidden vehicles might escape destruction, but a lot will be taken out. Russian artillery will be at the ready, but the Ukrainians now have artillery spotting radars from NATO. NATO artillery outranges Russian artillery, so once spotted, Russian artillery will be targets. Now that they are using mostly towed artillery, the guns need to pack up after every shot and move, then unpack again. Even if the Ukrainians can't find them that fast, this slows down Russian artillery fire dramatically. Ukrainian SP artillery can shoot and scoot and avoid counter battery fire with only short delays between salvos.
The survivors of the Russian ~200 in the trench will be faced with 20K heavily armed and well trained Ukrainian assault troops with Leopards, Challengers, Bradleys, and other western fighting vehicles. Ukrainian engineering vehicles will have the means to fill in trenches quickly so the rest of the force can keep moving. This might take an hour if the minefield is extensive.
Once the Ukrainians breach the trenches, the dug in Russian vehicles that escaped detection before the assault will get in a shot or two. BMPs with auto cannons can damage or take out AFU IFVs and APCs, but the Leopards and Challengers will quickly zero in on them and knock them out. Dug in Russian tanks can also take out AFU APCs, but they will have to contend with AFU tanks plus the TOWs on the Bradleys.
The quality of the pre-assault recon will determine how many vehicles are taken out before the assault. The Russian crews of these vehicles are now mostly poorly trained, the newer equipment have inferior sights from the older pre-war equipment, and there won't be many of them.
Ukraine will likely eliminate the remaining vehicles in another hour and be on their way. Next in the way will be artillery, AD units, and HQs, which will be easily dispatched if caught. The surviving Russians at this point will be fleeing to the next trenchline, but the Ukrainians have fast vehicles that will likely outrun the Russians to their trenches.
Russia is trying to take a lesson from page from General Zhukov's defense of Kursk. The Germans took a long time to build up their forces which gave the Russians time to dig in. The Kursk salient had about 250 KM of frontline and the Soviets have 900K combat troops to defend it and another 500K in reserve. Zhukov built multiple layers of trench lines with a large mobile armor force behind the trenches. He manned all the trenches with infantry at the start and the Germans had to grind through all of them. After the Germans wore themselves out getting through the trenches, the Soviet tanks were unleashed which broke the German assault.
The Russians are trying to repeat that feat with 1/35 the combat troops along a frontline 4X longer with fewer armored vehicles. The Ukrainians have a force that is around 1/2 (maybe as low as 1/3) the size of the German assault force. The German assault force was 780K with ~3000 tanks, and ~10,000 artillery. Between the assault corps and the secondary units that will be used to shore up gains, the Ukrainians might be committing 200-300K troops to the offensive. The Ukrainians have fewer tanks and artillery, but one NATO artillery piece is a lot more efficient than a 1940s artillery piece and they aren't having to deal with a force the size of the Kursk defenses.
The Ukrainians were conducting an offensive at Kherson too. Because of the terrain and what equipment they had, the Ukrainians had to move slowly. They broke down Russian defensive lines one by one and when the defensive lines got too tattered the Russians pulled out rather than face being besieged in Kherson city.
The offensive will probably come in the south. That's good tank country, the Russians have concentrated their forces in Bakhmut, and it gives them a good chance to get to the Azoz. Once they can get to the Azoz shore, Crimea can be isolated.
Yellowstone is one of the most dangerous volcanoes on the planet. It's a hot spot volcano that is currently under the Rockies. Hot spot volcanoes tend to erupt frequently like Hawaii or Iceland, but on a continental land mass they can be bad news. The Siberian Traps is a hot spot volcano that killed most of life on Earth. Due to the movement of the tectonic plates it is now thought that is Iceland.
The Yellowstone hotspot started in SE Oregon and completely changed the world's climate until the moving plates moved it under the Rockies.
Yellowstone erupts when the rocky plug of the Rockies weakens enough for it to explode. The eruptions are very bad. Rocks from eruptions have been found on the US-Mexico border. An eruption at Yellowstone would likely kill most of the people in eastern North America and end human civilization on the entire planet. Earth would have several years of nuclear winter and the ash cloud of toxic waste would be raining down around the world for years.
Siberia won't be safe. It is more nutty talk from the Russians.
Yellowstone has gurgled a bit lately, but an eruption is not imminent.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I can think of one place all the Wagner group should go, without delay.
I assume it starts with an 'H'
If Russia can withstand this NATO counteroffensive it will be very telling.
We have never witnessed the pouring in of resources for an unaffiliated, corrupt nation as we are seeing now. Zelensky is living the high life off of the back of his soldiers.
We have never witnessed the pouring in of resources for an unaffiliated, corrupt nation as we are seeing now. Zelensky is living the high life off of the back of his soldiers.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Of course it's a false flag. Those two guys climbing the stairs to the top of the dome at three in the morning? They didn't even flinch when the firework went off in the air above the dome. They knew it was coming. Also appeared to be dressed in fire-proof suits (likely sent to extinguish any unintentional fires).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It's a good script. I thought Woody Harrelson was particularly well-cast as the talk radio conspiracy theorist. Should translate well into Russian, given the volcanic history of the Siberian traps.
Cheers!
BitJam
Active Member
I heard several reports that the two guys were seen after the first drone strike which makes sense. It makes no sense for the Russians to film the two guys as part of a false flag operation.
Anders Puck Nielsen says this drone attack has none of the hallmarks of a Russian false flag operation which he lists as:
- Bad production quality and a clear message
- Intense media coverage in Russia
- Positive message about the Russia state
Nielsen says it may have been a pro-war Russian nationalist group. IMO those most likely responsible are the same pro-Ukrainian Russian resistance group(s) that have been conducting assassinations and sabotage inside of Russia.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That take is unconvincing. Of course the attack recieved intense media coverage, in the West, where it's target audience lives. The msg is simple: "we still have nukes". Pucky seems frightened. That'll make him more vunerable, not smarter. It's more of a strawman than the actual event.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Endgame rapidly approaching for Wagner PMC in Bakhmut:
05 May: IT’S OFFICIAL!!! WAGNERS ACCEPT A BRUTAL DEFEAT AND LEAVE!!! | War in Ukraine Explained
05 May: IT’S OFFICIAL!!! WAGNERS ACCEPT A BRUTAL DEFEAT AND LEAVE!!! | War in Ukraine Explained
From satellite images, it looks like 10 storage tanks at the Sevastopol oil depot were taken out of commission, with two more suffering some degree of damage.
www-pravda-com-ua.cdn.ampproject.org
Media shows aftermath of fire at Russian oil depot in Taman and Sevastopol
www-pravda-com-ua.cdn.ampproject.org
@wdolson I think the point you are missing re last summers offense in Kherson is that Ukraine did not want to go fast. They could have. They wanted pressure. They wanted to destroy air assets while they were in HIMARs range. Etc. The point was to bring the Russian army to Kherson and for that to occur there had to be massive pressure but not much success- just the threat of success. If they had gone quickly Russia would have given up and withdrawn and then redployed those more intelligently. SO they went slowly...very slowly and even allowed for successful counterattacks to regain ground. Once the russian assets were across the river they took out bridges and generally made it impossible to supply them. This is where logistics came into play (note to trent that it had nothing to do with trucks and everything to do with bridges). They waited for Russia to strip forces on the other provinces and then picked the most likely place to counter attack and did so with great success given the light resources they had. They captured massive amounts of stuff but that took time to incorporate. The threat to the Donbass was so great Russia had to pull out, they did not have the resources to hold both regions. It was brilliant GO gamesmanship.
My thinking is they will do the same again. They got the russians to move to Bahkmut. Now they talk about attacking in the south and I am sure they will at first and in fact that is the major objective. I also think that just as before the critical battle will take place elsewhere and it seem fairly obvious. The place where nothing is happening. We'll see, that's what they have done before so it seems obvious.
My thinking is they will do the same again. They got the russians to move to Bahkmut. Now they talk about attacking in the south and I am sure they will at first and in fact that is the major objective. I also think that just as before the critical battle will take place elsewhere and it seem fairly obvious. The place where nothing is happening. We'll see, that's what they have done before so it seems obvious.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
You funny
I was doing another task and having a chuckle about your post when it occurred to me that the difference between your approach and most on this thread is that you can actually post your "thoughts" here. We see them for what they are and thus give them only the credit they are due but you CAN post here and not fear for stepping out a window by accident. You seem to be confusing a strength for a weakness. Silly mistake.
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Lol. Is this some sort of parody account?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Just wait for the Scrotom guy to get the facts from his source in the Kremlin then we'll know the truth. They wouldn't lie would they?
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