JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Russians fleeing to Mexico trying to escape serving in the war
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I used these numbers for 1939
List of countries by population in 1939 - Wikipedia
I strongly agree. Russia has to figure out for itself what it's going to do after losing this war. As long as whatever they do doesn't slop over their borders and affects someone else, it's their business to resolve in the way they choose.
National self determination is the meme the US has pushed since the late 40s. The US hasn't always walked the talk, but that has been the talk.
This is western way of thinking. In Putin's/Russian way of thinking, Russia cannot lose. It's unthinkable. Russia will never lose. They will just have to try even harder until they eventually win. Russia is great and powerful and cannot be defeated. Not by western weapons, not by Ukrainian determination. Yeah it sucks that the economy is taking a hit, yeah it sucks that people die, but the war must not be lost. If they lose the dream is Russia is dead and the dream of Russia is worth more than a hundred million people in poverty, hundreds of thousands dead and injured.
Slowly they are sobering up from this illusion. Things are not going as predicted, every question raised is silenced, but soon the silencing becomes to obvious. It will take a long time, imo the war will be long lost before they are ready to accept reality. Say what you want about capitalism/classic liberal democracy, but at least you can document what happens, question it, have debates etc and there usually is some kind of feedback mechanism, even it is weak and have time delays, at least it is there.
There are a number of milbloggers in Russia (very pro-Russia) who are coming to the conclusion Russia has lost. My partner saw something where Putin was hinting that maybe the war was lost too.
I think it was Churchill who said democracy is the worst form of government until you consider the alternatives. Ultimately governing well isn't easy, especially a large country. Dictators are good at fronting so they make things look good until reality comes home and bites them, then the world sees they are a paper tiger.
In a healthy democracy the mess is out in the open and everyone can see most of it. Some is hidden, but not much.
On another note the hand wringers who act like all is lost if Bakhmut eventually falls are delusional. My partner was reading a Twitter thread to me with some of those people in there today. Thinking Ukraine has lost the war if Bakhmut falls is like thinking the US lost WW II when Guam fell in 1941. Bakhmut is about as important to Ukraine as Guam was to the US. It's helpful to hold, but it isn't critical for anything.
The US lost Guam the first days after Pearl Harbor and then took it back 2 1/2 years later in mid-1944. Guam became important as way point to other places and the whole Marianas became the center for the B-29 bombing campaign, but between 1941 and mid-1944 it was strategically unimportant to the US cause.
Bakhmut is a cauldron to inflict high losses on the Russians and the Ukrainians are just committing enough resources to hold on and nothing more while they husband the bulk of their resources for the coming offensive. It looks like Ukraine has been gaining back some ground around Bakhmut, but the battle is far from over. Ukraine might pull the plug and pull back to the heights west of Bakhmit where they can shell the Russians at leisure. If the Russians want to get a lot of people killed for no reason, the Ukrainians will do their part.
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So many Russians here in Bali. They are everywhere, sometimes when you go to a restaurant it feels like 50% of the tables are Russians. Prices of rentals are going crazy, pricing out many long term expats when their rental period is finished and the owner increases the price by 100% percent. There is an entire village in Ubud with Russian kindergarten, Russian ballet classes, Russian spa etc.
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Seems that Russia might soon surround Bakhmut, I assume lots of casuality and prisoners if that happens:
I read around six months ago that a Russian oligarch who got out from under Putin's thumb started a community in Bali and Russians have been flocking there for years. Since the war began the migration has really picked up.
I've seen a lot of mixed messages about Bakhmut. The fog of war seems to be much greater the last week. Russia is claiming they have taken all sorts of ground around Bakhmut, but there is little evidence they actually have. Bakhmut might be getting encircled, but on the other hand it's quite possible it's only getting encircled in the imagination of Russian leadership.
In the Russian army everyone lies. Honest people end up getting blamed for any screw ups. What typically happens with the exaggerated claims is the front line commander reports up the line that they are on the verge of taking objective X when really their forces have been slaughtered and they have gained little or no ground. The next level up exaggerates the claim, and so on up the tree until the Kremlin is hearing that the Ukrainians have all been wiped out and Russian tanks are charging forward far past objective X.
The same thing happens with losses. A commander will take 50 losses and report 10. They will hope to report the other 40 later trickling out the casualties, but the next day there is another 50. Eventually Moscow thinks the battalion is at 90% strength when it's really at 15%. Russia put the new mobiks largely into new units because on paper most of the rest of the army units were at full strength when in reality they might have been able to make use of the mobiks and even train them to some degree with the few surviving veterans.
As Winston Churchill allegedly first said “democracy is the worst system except for all the others”. He might have made similar comments about capitalism.This is western way of thinking. In Putin's/Russian way of thinking, Russia cannot lose. It's unthinkable. Russia will never lose. They will just have to try even harder until they eventually win. Russia is great and powerful and cannot be defeated. Not by western weapons, not by Ukrainian determination. Yeah it sucks that the economy is taking a hit, yeah it sucks that people die, but the war must not be lost. If they lose the dream is Russia is dead and the dream of Russia is worth more than a hundred million people in poverty, hundreds of thousands dead and injured.
Slowly they are sobering up from this illusion. Things are not going as predicted, every question raised is silenced, but soon the silencing becomes to obvious. It will take a long time, imo the war will be long lost before they are ready to accept reality. Say what you want about capitalism/classic liberal democracy, but at least you can document what happens, question it, have debates etc and there usually is some kind of feedback mechanism, even it is weak and have time delays, at least it is there.
petit_bateau
Active Member
China not at all neutral
www.theguardian.com
Finland progress
www.theguardian.com
and the next phase of the Russian attempt to grab Moldova has started
China spends billions on pro-Russia disinformation, US special envoy says
Beijing propaganda includes messaging aligned with Moscow on Ukraine war, says James Rubin
www.theguardian.com
Finland progress
Finland’s MPs approve legislation paving way for country to join Nato
Vote increases chance of Finland joining alliance before Sweden, which is facing objections from Turkey
www.theguardian.com
and the next phase of the Russian attempt to grab Moldova has started
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trayloader
Member
well, according to this expert, Russia will end up as a third world state, which I think is highly probable.
The Chinese will not play his game, they´re in it for arm wrestling and not having his back (especially in Mongolia-ha!)
www-merkur-de.translate.goog
The Chinese will not play his game, they´re in it for arm wrestling and not having his back (especially in Mongolia-ha!)
Experte berechnet Kriegs-Ende – und stellt überraschende Prognose: „Russland wird Entwicklungsland“
Seit einem Jahr herrscht Krieg in der Ukraine. Ein Experte kündigt noch für dieses Jahr das Kriegsende an und stellt eine überraschende Prognose auf.
www-merkur-de.translate.goog
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, Winston Churchill said that “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.” (after the British people voted him out).
Cheers!
BTW, using that bit of trivia was intended to remind us that heroic war leaders often fall soon after victory has been assured. Thus, it seems very much on topic for this thread. Somebody was going to notice, it seemed @Artful Dodger quite likely to be the first. Thanks!Indeed, Winston Churchill said that “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.” (after the British people voted him out).
Cheers!
China not at all neutral
China spends billions on pro-Russia disinformation, US special envoy says
Beijing propaganda includes messaging aligned with Moscow on Ukraine war, says James Rubin
Finland progress
Finland’s MPs approve legislation paving way for country to join Nato
Vote increases chance of Finland joining alliance before Sweden, which is facing objections from Turkey
and the next phase of the Russian attempt to grab Moldova has started
Russia is probably getting desperate for their supply cache in Transnistria. When the Eastern Bloc fell apart the USSR gathered up equipment and ammunition and stored it in a large warehouse in eastern Moldova. They have held onto Transnistria in part to keep control of this warehouse. The force there is small though, only 1500 troops, including a lot of administrative troops. The total combat strength is maybe 500. Their active equipment includes about 60 T-64s, about twice that many APCs, and some towed artillery.
If Russia's supply situation is as bad as it appears, they may be trying to come up with some way to get that supply out of Modolva and to their troops in Ukraine. If Moldova was overthrown with a government friendly to Moscow, the Russians could probably empty that warehouse.
The Moldovan army is pretty weak, but it might be a smart move for the government to ask the UN to send a peacekeeping force. NATO could do it too, but the UN would be a lot less controversial. Another option would be for Moldova to ask Ukraine to clear out the Russians from their territory in exchange for the contents of the warehouse.
The Russian force in Transnistria is probably getting uncomfortable. They have been stuck there for over a year with no possibility of rotation. I've read the Ukrainians have claimed there have been a number of Russians who have gone AWOL. If so the force probably isn't capable of much of a fight.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yup, electoral victories are like Sir Gawain and the Green Knight: 'See you in a year, old friend'...
Cheers!
Cheers!
petit_bateau
Active Member
It is very complicated. This is exactly why Russia seeks to have so-called frozen conflicts that it can use to its own ends.
The problem is that those nations that respect the rules-based order are very hampered in their ability to act re situations like this.
Romania cannot - as things stand - intervene in Moldova in such a way as to remain under the NATO umbrella.
The good news is that a) the leadership team in Moldova are excellent; and b) there is no air, sea, or land access to Moldova that does not go through either NATO territory or Ukraine's territory.
The patient careful yet resolute approach is probably best, which is what the Moldova leadership is doing. Ultimately Moldova (i.e. Transnistria) is solvable at the end of the Ukraine conflict (in the success case of expelling the Russian invasion), but is in many ways a distraction until shortly prior to that outcome. But at that point I suspect it will not be left to fester as a Russian proxy. But maybe events will go down other pathways, who knows.
In the meantime I suspect that 'volunteers' will be anything but 'volunteering'
Pre-NATO ascendance, in the 1992 Transnistrian original conflict, Romania did intervene both on the sly (equipment transfer, brand new painted Moldavian APCs showing up out of thin air
) and openly (military advisors and volunteers). But now in 2023, as a full fledged NATO member, Romania has to coordinate the Moldavian support differently (similar to NATO's aid to Ukraine now) in order to stay under the NATO umbrella.Plus in 2023 you have to consider Ukraine's interests vs Transnistria, which were a HUGE deal in the original 1992 conflict as well. Back then, Ukraine (under the former pro-Moscow regime) was a Russian ally and provided military support (volunteers) as well as diplomatic support for Transnistria, against Moldova's territorial integrity. The russians created this UK-MD conflict long ago by cutting part of the Ukrainian SSR, as an autonomous republic called the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, with Tiraspol as its capital in 1924 as a prelude to claiming the Romanian province of Bessarabia (current Moldova) under the 1940 Ribbentrop-Molotov treaty and its secret protocols. Then in 1940, the Moldavian SSR was creating by merging the two, while other parts of the Romanian territory were annexed into Ukrainian SSR... Typical russian "divide and conquer" and seeding future disputes that only the bigger and smarter big brother from Moscow can mediate...
Post Ukraine victory, PMR (Transnistria) will disappear for certain, but how exactly that will happen is still unknown. Some of the current Transnistria territory is clear Moldovan (former Romanian) territory but others (most) are former Ukrainian.... But these are questions likely to be resolved later after the bigger question of getting russia out of Ukraine gets solved.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Someone got lucky
Reading the thread I guess that's a round from an AGS-30 or AGS-40 that didn't go off. 40mm grenade from a grenade launcher. It looks like it hit tangentially, but I'm sure it hurt.
Tiger
Active Member
Is this real or just clickbait?
It would be great in the sense that Ausralia is too far for Russia to retaliate.
It would be great in the sense that Ausralia is too far for Russia to retaliate.
BitJam
Active Member
Unfortunately, that channel is mostly optimistic BS. For example, a month ago it said 321 tanks and 80 fight jets from Western countries had arrived in Ukraine.
A quick search showed some political conversations in Australia advocating for the donation of FA-18 to Ukraine, but there has been no action. The FA-18s are now surplus and will be available soon. What Australia will do with them is currently unknown.
BitJam
Active Member
I couldn't find the Fiona Hill suggestion that you refer to. I'm not saying it doesn't exist but the links to links to links were hard for me to follow (sorry). I ended up at this Feb. 22nd transcript of an interview she did with Freddie Sayers of Unherd:
'Absolute victory over Russia isn't possible'
Trump's former advisor on the West's mistakes
unherd.com
Throughout it Fiona Hill says many things that make me question whether she is in favor of a land for peace deal.
If we had made a decision early on to push Ukraine to give up Crimea, as well as the Donbas, Putin would have taken that, pocketed it and then tried to figure out how much further he could press on.
So you’ve got to find a formula where Russia no longer wants to expand.
Putin will only negotiate when he thinks that achieving his current goals is not possible.
There is talk of peace negotiations. But the problem is that the Russians are not interested in them.
Because if we cede to Russia’s territorial demands — if Ukraine is forced to capitulate and give up not just Crimea but also the Donetsk, Luhansk and Donbas regions — think of all the precedents for other conflicts, not just in Europe, but around the world.
At one point, the Ukrainians were willing to contemplate Crimea being subjected to an internationally supervised referendum, 15 or 20 years down the line. That was before all of the incredible violence and atrocities that we have seen there.
It’s true that there was a negotiation in February or March, and it was in Istanbul [...] a negotiation which would have involved Russia pulling back to pre-invasion lines. It would have basically left Crimea in Russian hands, which the Ukrainians were then willing to discuss. But since then, all the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin became evident.
And the more that we talk about the fact that we just need to resolve this, and say “please take Ukrainian territory then we’ll all be back to business”, the more that he [Putin] will persist.
I'm not claiming this is the same interview but what she says here seems to be in accord with what most people in this thread have been saying and it makes me question whether she really proposed a land for peace deal that most people here would object to.
