In this article from
Re:Russia, Russian economist and banker Vyugin writes about the reasons Russia confounded expectations and did not suffer economic collapse in 2022, and then adds some guesses about the future.
I thought it was pretty good reading, and I think underscores a basic reality: the sooner W. Europe weans itself off Russian fossils
and does so with renewable eneryg , the sooner economic pressures will become effective against Russia. The replacement has to be renewable and not just fossil imports because the market is essentially fungible
Maybe, but reality may differ. Nearly all sanctions are very porous. This case more than most since China, India, Brazil and many other countries still buy Russian products and do not ascribe to sanctions. The sanctions, such as they are, allow even sales within the EU. Brazil has bought fertilizer and other products too. We already know about the several EU countries that still buy oil and gas. India buying crude, refining it and using and or selling. Then there are huge trade with China and, slightly less, Iran. Russia is rather skilled with workarounds and has numerous willing participants with which to trade.
Sanctions never really work. The sanctioning parties do stop some trade, often almost all. The others do not. Somehow naive politicians think they establish sanctions and have them work. That is not how the world works.
Iran under sanctions still managed to operate their 747's for years, and sells their oil production and even pistachios and caviar, not to mention drones and other military gear.
Russia has solved their aircraft maintenance problems for the present:
"Of course, far from all countries in the world have launched sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine. While Turkish ground handlers
may soon deny service to Russian aircraft, Rosaviatsia has approved Dubai-based Global Jet Technic to maintain Russian-registered Airbus and Boeing aircraft."
airbus-ceo-concerned-russia-plane-operations
As Russia learns avoidance techniques the impact reduces.
As we know Russia does have a serious problem in lack of IT, oilfield and technical skills. With Iran having solved many such problems themselves they're thrilled to help Russia. The UAE always accepts anybody with money, as they have since in the 1930's first Sharjah and later Dubai (after Sharjah's port silted) served as regional entrepôt to defeat Indian subcontinent rules. That practice dates back to Sumeria long before Dubai and Sharjah existed. Anybody so naive to imagine that the UAE would interfere with commerce with anybody handy probably also imagines that the Arab boycott of Israel actually stopped trade with Israel. IT did not!
Russia obviously has serious military problems that may be insoluble. It is foolish to think the resolution of this conflict will be easy or quick. Others among us know vastly more than do I about the military issues. Despite my views on the efficacy of the boycotts, I remain confident that most nonaligned countries will be pleased if Ukraine prevails, especially because they really do want Ukrainian industrial, mining and food exports. Most of those countries want to see trade with both Ukraine and Russia to resume.