Russia/Ukraine conflict

[madodel]

Inside Ukraine’s Desperate Fight Against Drones With MiG-29 Pilot “Juice”
After months of fighting off the Russian Air Force, Ukraine has had to get very creative to confront a new menace, Iranian-made drones.

From December but very interesting first hand account of a Mig 29 Ukrainian pilot.

 

[wdolson]

Human loses continue to get worse for Russia - now hemorrhaging a record >1100 casualties in one day:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624322654701293568

I think the highest single day total I saw was around 1200, so yesterday's total is close to a high water mark. Wartranslated had a story of an entire unit of mobiks refusing to fight because of the low chances for survival.

1. As I understand it Ukraine is asking the Democratic West for some 180 modern Western fighter jets.
2. Support in the Democratic West for supplying UKR with modern fighter jets is growing fast. As a layman on things like these I am fully behind this growing support for providing modern Western fighter jets to UKR.

I say let UKR decide and not the Chinese Dictator.

They would be hard pressed to get pilots for all those aircraft. I think the Ukrainian air force was around 80 aircraft at the beginning of the war and they probably didn't have more than around 100 trained pilots.

Like this perhaps:


I think petit_bateau said it well:


@CatB: IMO it is absolutely 100% possible to reach "the best answers" without engaging with a pacifist that adheres to pacifism.

Trying to resolve disputes without violence is a good thing, the legal systems in most countries are built on that principle. Between nations sometimes violence is needed, though less often than we've seen on the world stage.

The recent video footage suggests a lot of direct hits by Ukraine on Russian artillery, from smart munitions with long range drone surveillance in-the-loop. Maybe that is cued by counterbattery radar, but the sheer quantity of drone footage is itself remarkable. I get the sense that the smart munitions are being prioritised to anti-artillery usage.

If one were carrying out a systems analysis one might note that drone video can direct artillery against all target sets, including AFV/IFV/tanks + fixed positions + infantry + artillery. Whereas counterbattery radar is really only good against one target set. So skewing investments towards drone surveillance might be a better ROI. Again if one looks at the recent video footage an awful lot of the Ukraine artillery is against those other target sets. Even when it non-smart it is clearly being walked in onto target very quickly. The Ukraine recce teams are clearly well integrated with their artillery teams these days.

The current Russian losses are staggering. The Russians are using the classic Soviet tactic of attacking on a wide front and trying to find a weakness to flow behind. But so far that does not appear to be working for the Russians in terms of opening up a weakness to exploit, and let's hope it stays that way. Surely it cannot last much longer before they run out of anyone/anything.

It will be interesting to see if the Russian artillery losses continue to be high. If they are, that's a sign the Ukrainians are doing something new. If they go back down again it's possible they just had a lucky day when they caught a Russian artillery unit on the move or something like that.

I hope the Ukrainians can whittle down Russian artillery. The Russians started the war with a massive reserve of artillery, but the fact that almost all their artillery was self propelled at the start of the war and most is towed now is an indication that the Russians have used up most of their pre-war artillery and are deep into their reserve pool. Artillery losses will put further strain on their reserves.

The Russians are firing a lot less artillery per day, so they are burning out barrels at a much slower rate. Ukrainians taking out a lot of tubes per day will help get their attrition rate back up and hopefully their artillery reserves will start to dry up.

 

[bkp_duke]

"Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant​

February 10, 2023 5:00 AM ET

Russia appears to be draining an enormous reservoir in Ukraine, imperiling drinking water, agricultural production and safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant, according to satellite data obtained by NPR.

Since early November 2022, water has been gushing out of the Kakhovka Reservoir, in Southern Ukraine, through sluice gates at a critical hydroelectric power plant controlled by Russian forces. As a result, satellite data shows that the water level at the reservoir has plummeted to its lowest point in three decades. [..."

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant

The reason for this is clear: the Russians want to keep the water level high on the Dnipro River as it flows through the Kherson area. Lower water levels would allow the Ukrainians easier river crossings, and would potentially allow for them to open a new front of fighting that the Russians would have to divert valuable troops from other areas in order to deal with.

Short term, this likely will work. Long term, it may work against them because one the reservoir is drained, the Dnipro will drop to VERY low levels, allowing for the very crossing that the Russians are tying to forestall.


Instructors at West Point and other military academies will be teaching the do's and don'ts from this conflict for decades.

 

[wdolson]

The reason for this is clear: the Russians want to keep the water level high on the Dnipro River as it flows through the Kherson area. Lower water levels would allow the Ukrainians easier river crossings, and would potentially allow for them to open a new front of fighting that the Russians would have to divert valuable troops from other areas in order to deal with.

Short term, this likely will work. Long term, it may work against them because one the reservoir is drained, the Dnipro will drop to VERY low levels, allowing for the very crossing that the Russians are tying to forestall.


Instructors at West Point and other military academies will be teaching the do's and don'ts from this conflict for decades.

Agreed. This is the first open battlefield (non-insurgency) fight between fairly evenly matched adversaries in a long time. There are a lot of lessons in how new weapons have changed battlefields as well as what mistakes to avoid. Bakhmut is going to be studied as an example of a power getting hyper focused on one objective long past it's strategic usefulness. The Russians probably suffered around 50K or more casualties trying to take that city and taking it doesn't change the strategic picture of the war much at all.

 

[wdolson]

Some perspective on the so called massive Russian offensive
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

1. As I understand it Ukraine is asking the Democratic West for some 180 modern Western fighter jets.
2. Support in the Democratic West for supplying UKR with modern fighter jets is growing fast. As a layman on things like these I am fully behind this growing support for providing modern Western fighter jets to UKR.

I say let UKR decide and not the Chinese Dictator.

...] They would be hard pressed to get pilots for all those aircraft. I think the Ukrainian air force was around 80 aircraft at the beginning of the war and they probably didn't have more than around 100 trained pilots. [...

I have tried googling what the pilot per aircraft ratio could be, but can't really find anything. According to Wikipedia UKR had these fighter jets. If you include the two-seaters listed as "Training aircraft" below the tally is 111 in fighters in total. They also have/had 39 L-39 jet trainers...

Combat aircraft
MiG-29	Soviet Union	multirole	43[59]
Su-24	Soviet Union	attack	12[59]
Su-25	Soviet Union	attack / CAS	16[59]
Su-27	Soviet Union	multirole	26[59]
These listed as "Training aircraft"
MiG-29	Soviet Union	jet trainer	8[59]
Su-27	Soviet Union	jet trainer	6[59]

Source:

Ukrainian Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Using wdolson's ratio above, then that would mean some 138,75 pilots for the fighter jets (excluding the L-39 trainers...). I know from memory that they have lost at least 2 pilots, but that number is sadly of course higher...

If I was the UKR Air Force Command I would have started to plan ahead for this situation with potential western fighter jets as soon as the war started. If possible I would have started training pilots on flying MIG-29 and Su-27 in other countries with these aircraft types. But since I don't know everything that is to know about stuff like this, perhaps training pilots in other countries hasn't been possible... BUT, even if Ukraine would have had to do all this all by themselves, they could still have started preparing potential pilots for this very situation. These potential pilots could have been studying theory and training in sims. And of course done other tests that are done to select well-suited candidates. They could also have done basic flight training on civilian single prop. flight trainers in other countries. So... I would at least hope there are X amount of potential pilots in some sort of prepared state...

 

[SmokyPeat]

Yeah, I suspect Ukraine will have an adequate supply of pilots to fly aircraft as they trickle in. I don't think we'll see 200 aircraft dumped into their hands all at once.

 

[petit_bateau]

I have tried googling what the pilot per aircraft ratio could be, but can't really find anything. According to Wikipedia UKR had these fighter jets. If you include the two-seaters listed as "Training aircraft" below the tally is 111 in fighters in total. They also have/had 39 L-39 jet trainers...

Using wdolson's ratio above, then that would mean some 138,75 pilots for the fighter jets (excluding the L-39 trainers...). I know from memory that they have lost at least 2 pilots, but that number is sadly of course higher...

If I was the UKR Air Force Command I would have started to plan ahead for this situation with potential western fighter jets as soon as the war started.

The war started in 2014. The Ukraine has been planning and preparing and acting ever since. Ukraine also has a significant civil aviation industry, a lot of which is/was in active reserves. I suspect that they started with well over 200+ fast jet pilots of one sort or another, plus the chopper pilots.

==========

Another reason the Russians are trying to run down the water level in that reservoir is to keep the ZNPP six nuclear reactors as a very sensitive hostage. The ZNPP plant draws its cooling water from that reservoir into a system of ponds. If the Russians are still in control of the relevant assets by Summer it will be easy enough for them to keep levels high enough. On the other hand if they are losing control of the relevant assets they will likely try to (further) smash things on the way out and - with low water levels and low summer flows - then blame the ensuing nuclear crisis on Ukraine actions.

 

[trayloader]

==========

Another reason the Russians are trying to run down the water level in that reservoir is to keep the ZNPP six nuclear reactors as a very sensitive hostage. The ZNPP plant draws its cooling water from that reservoir into a system of ponds. If the Russians are still in control of the relevant assets by Summer it will be easy enough for them to keep levels high enough. On the other hand if they are losing control of the relevant assets they will likely try to (further) smash things on the way out and - with low water levels and low summer flows - then blame the ensuing nuclear crisis on Ukraine actions.

Imho that’s the baldhead‘s ultimate goal:
Hold everybody hostage with the finger on the trigger of a Fukushima scenario and then, maybe after the first reactor went south, enter negotiations. Of course while blaming the Ukrainians. Everything else for this psycho is out of reach and means a further weakening of his position towards the falcons, military and public. In his mind the controllable atomic scenario.
Sounds perverted but his easiest way out. Sorry for painting a grey picture.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

 

[SageBrush]

keep the ZNPP six nuclear reactors as a very sensitive hostage.

I realize that the nuke plant is potentially a bomb, but

Is the ZNPP still producing electricity ? How much ?

 

[petit_bateau]

I realize that the nuke plant is potentially a bomb, but

Is the ZNPP still producing electricity ? How much ?

There is no electricity generation & export, though I believe there is electricity import so as to keep the pumps etc operating. If those elec import lines get shelled then they switch over to the on-site diesel gensets. They seem to have replenished the 2-weeks of diesel stocks at some point in the last few months.

"Of the six reactors, four units are in cold shutdown mode, with two in hot shutdown to supply steam and heat to the plant and the nearby city of Energodar, where most of the workforce lives. "

The town/city has a district heating scheme, i.e. not many (if any) buildings have their own individual heat source.

IAEA chief's fresh Zaporizhzhia talks, Ukraine brings in nuclear sanctions : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi is expected in Russia this week for more talks on establishing a safety and security zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

www.world-nuclear-news.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

From Wikipedia:

"Philip Mark Breedlove (born September 21, 1955)[1] is a retired four-star general in the United States Air Force who served as the commander of U.S. European Command, as well as the 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Command Operations, from May 2013 until May 4, 2016. [..."

Philip M. Breedlove - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Was on Times Radio yesterday:

...] The West must provide Ukraine with aircrafts in order to protect itself long term from 'belligerent' Russia on its borders, says General Breedlove (ret).

Gen. Breedlove (ret.) on how to end the Russian Dictator's war quickly. Fast forward to 7:20:

EDIT: (I always find it really annoying when various media outlets uses older pictures of the Dictator where he 'appears to be' younger than he is today. If it was up to me it would only be pictures that shows his current real age – which is 70+.)

 

[nativewolf]

Cynic in me feels even more strongly that the USA wants Ukraine to bleed Russia for the rest of this winter/spring . They will have the tanks and APC then and some sort of longer range weapon and airframes and the whole time USA can hide the real reason behind other reasons and actors. If this is not our over arching goal we are idiots, if it is than we may finally have an admin capable of fencing with China. Are we idiots or savvy byzantines ?

Lloyd Austin said as much last year.

 

[SageBrush]

There is no electricity generation & export, though I believe there is electricity import so as to keep the pumps etc operating.

Since electricity is not being generated, are the ponds important to nuclear safety ?

 

[BitJam]

Since electricity is not being generated, are the ponds important to nuclear safety ?

Yes! Even after the chain reaction inside a reactor has been stopped, the radioactive byproducts continue to decay generating enough heat to cause a meltdown. This was demonstrated at Fukushima where loss of power caused loss of cooling and resulted in three meltdowns, restarting chain reactions that humans could no longer control. Stopping the chain reaction is (usually) easy. Keeping the reactor cooled is the hard part.

Loss of cooling is one of the major failure modes of a nuclear reactor. If you can keep the reactor cooled for a month or so after it has been shut down then you are probably out of the woods.

The Chernobyl disaster was triggered during a test of the cooling system to make sure a reactor could use its own electricity to run the cooling pumps so the plant could remain safe even with no outside electricity and even if the backup diesel generators stopped working.

 

[iPlug]

From Wikipedia:

"Philip Mark Breedlove (born September 21, 1955)[1] is a retired four-star general in the United States Air Force who served as the commander of U.S. European Command, as well as the 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Command Operations, from May 2013 until May 4, 2016. [..."

Philip M. Breedlove - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Was on Times Radio yesterday:


Gen. Breedlove (ret.) on how to end the Russian Dictator's war quickly. Fast forward to 7:20:

EDIT: (I always find it really annoying when various media outlets uses older pictures of the Dictator where he 'appears to be' younger than he is today. If it was up to me it would only be pictures that shows his current real age – which is 70+.)

1 year ago it seemed likely Russia would have air supremacy over Ukraine. It turned out things were better than feared - Russia “only” had air superiority.

Today Russia no longer has air superiority over the skies where Ukraine holds its territory. As things continue to unfold, by next year at this time Ukraine will likely have air superiority in that domain.

 

[BitJam]

Cynic in me feels even more strongly that the USA wants Ukraine to bleed Russia for the rest of this winter/spring . They will have the tanks and APC then and some sort of longer range weapon and airframes and the whole time USA can hide the real reason behind other reasons and actors. If this is not our over arching goal we are idiots, if it is than we may finally have an admin capable of fencing with China. Are we idiots or savvy byzantines ?

Lloyd Austin said as much last year.

This is certainly an important aspect but it's not the whole story. In the first few days after the invasion,the EU refused to impose significant economic sanctions on Russia. Biden bemoaned their refusal to even impose SWIFT sanctions. By ramping up military aid slowly, the US has kept Europe engaged (although some countries, such as Poland, needed no encouragement). The slow ramp has strengthened NATO and has shown how important it is. The US swooping in like a deus ex machina would have reinforced the idea that NATO is no longer important or needed.

There is a similar balancing act with China which has (thank goodness) warned Putin to not use nukes. IMO this stance by China is extremely important. We want China to stay on the sidelines and to help rein in Putin's worse tendencies. The slow boil analogy may be more important in Europe and China than it is in Russia.

 

[trayloader]

This is certainly an important aspect but it's not the whole story. In the first few days after the invasion,the EU refused to impose significant economic sanctions on Russia. Biden bemoaned their refusal to even impose SWIFT sanctions. By ramping up military aid slowly, the US has kept Europe engaged (although some countries, such as Poland, needed no encouragement). The slow ramp has strengthened NATO and has shown how important it is. The US swooping in like a deus ex machina would have reinforced the idea that NATO is no longer important or needed.

There is a similar balancing act with China which has (thank goodness) warned Putin to not use nukes. IMO this stance by China is extremely important. We want China to stay on the sidelines and to help rein in Putin's worse tendencies. The slow boil analogy may be more important in Europe and China than it is in Russia.

I don’t believe the Chinese at this point sorry.
Not using nukes could per definition be differently interpretated than letting atomic radiation evaporate.
It could be in the Chinese interest, that the West is severely weakened. The last days accelerated my bias towards Shi.

 

[Just a Reader]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624073096167665664

Why do other countries give a [beep] about what the Swiss think? Poland didn't seem to give a [beep] about what Germany thought, and was going to supply UKR with Leopard tanks anyway... Isn't it abundantly clear by now that any weapons from Swiss arms manufacturers are going to be utterly useless anyway once the existing ammo and spare parts are exhausted... If Germany, Spain and Denmark intends to maintain some sort of defense capability going forward, those Swiss weapons are going to have to be replaced anyway. Seems to me that the potential market for any arms from a Swiss manufacturer[1] has been extremely effectively confined within the borders of Switzerland for the foreseeable future... Or am I missing something?

[1] And similar 'market restrictions' seems to apply for any weapons manufactured by any corporation in Austria or Hungary...

The company is called Oerlikon, not Erlikon. They actually belong to German defense group Rheinmetall, yet Rheinmetall is bound by the Swiss decision. As a result Rheinmetall plans to shift the production of 35 mm ammunition to Spain, yet that will take some time.
Poland always talks bigly, the reality often looks otherwise. They were talking about sending their Leopards to Ukraine, but right now it's only Germany and Canada that have tanks ready for delivery.