Russia/Ukraine conflict

[RobStark]

Both China and Russia now are Fascist States with a Führer at the top.

And whatever percentage of Chinese exports go to the industrialized democracies, a greater percentage of China's most profitable exports go to the industrialized democracies.

The US buys more $1k smart phones as percentage than Nigeria.

Nigeria buys a greater percentage of $50 phones.

If the West legally decouples from China there will lots of trade diversion, then less trade diversion, then supply chains will adjust.

 

[madodel]

A leopard can't change its spots. The same folks longing for a return of Stalinism and the Soviet Union also long for return to the Empire.

 

[wdolson]

A leopard can't change its spots. The same folks longing for a return of Stalinism and the Soviet Union also long for return to the Empire.

But a Leopard can be given a new coat of paint and be given to the Ukrainian army

Basically there are a bunch of Russians who aren't happy that the Russian Empire is falling apart. It waxed and waned, but mostly grew for around 800 years, but it's been downhill since the early 90s. They can't accept that places that used to be part of Russia don't want to be Russian.

Kamil Galeev has pointed out that to people at the center of the Russian universe, the only identity of any value is being Russian. In this universe ethnic Russians are superior, but other peoples who also call themselves Russian are OK. People who don't call themselves Russian and do not want to be Russian just haven't learned how great it is to be Russian. They can't wrap their mind around the reality that there are plenty of non-Russians who enjoy a better standard of living and are much happier than most Russians.

Before the war there were a lot of Ukrainians who kind of thought of themselves as sort of Russian. Many people, including Zelensky spoke Russian as their primary language and there was a big debate in Ukraine about whether Ukraine should be more European or more in Russia's orbit. The invasion shattered that and now Ukrainians consider everything Russian as bad. The war has taken a soft national identity and crystalized it into something clearly different from Russia.

 

[petit_bateau]

Except Russia isn't communist, it's a straight up dictatorship. Russia isn't going to join forces with anyone if they aren't the dominant partner and they would be subservient to China in any strong alliance.

China has demonstrated that they don't have any interest in taking more territory. The Belt and Road Initiative brings other countries under Chinese influence and makes them client states. The countries remain controlled by their own people, but the Chinese just take their resources. If Russia breaks apart, that's likely what China would do to the countries that emerge in the eastern part of Russia.

I don't think one should blithely swallow the meme that "China doesn't want more territory".

China under first the KMT and the CCP swallowed Tibet and Qinghai; also CCP tried to get Taiwan that KMT previously took; invaded Vietnam; has taken all the Spratlys etc and is claiming all the South China Sea etc out to the very fictitous nine-dash line out to Kinmen/Matsu and Quemoy, Pratas, Taiping; swallowed Xinjiang, invaded India, and abrogated treaties re Hong Kong, and fought divisional-scale tank battles with the Soviets in Xinjiang and Manchuria. That's quite a list since 1930 or so and I'm sure I've missed some bits !

If you take a map and shade in all the bits that have been claimed by Chinese empires over history it includes a fair chunk of Asia, reaching as far Westwards as modern day Iran.

For sure China has problems, but it is also becoming increasingly capable of exporting those problems. It is sensible to draw quite a firm line in the sand in Ukraine at this time, or as the Chinese saying goes, "kill chicken, scare monkey".

 

[nativewolf]

I don't think one should blithely swallow the meme that "China doesn't want more territory".

China under first the KMT and the CCP swallowed Tibet and Qinghai; also CCP tried to get Taiwan that KMT previously took; invaded Vietnam; has taken all the Spratlys etc and is claiming all the South China Sea etc out to the very fictitous nine-dash line out to Kinmen/Matsu and Quemoy, Pratas, Taiping; swallowed Xinjiang, invaded India, and abrogated treaties re Hong Kong, and fought divisional-scale tank battles with the Soviets in Xinjiang and Manchuria. That's quite a list since 1930 or so and I'm sure I've missed some bits !

If you take a map and shade in all the bits that have been claimed by Chinese empires over history it includes a fair chunk of Asia, reaching as far Westwards as modern day Iran.

For sure China has problems, but it is also becoming increasingly capable of exporting those problems. It is sensible to draw quite a firm line in the sand in Ukraine at this time, or as the Chinese saying goes, "kill chicken, scare monkey".

And Korea and Japan and Burma and Vietnam. The textbooks used in school show this as “China”

 

[petit_bateau]

Fair sitrep

Thread by @JominiW on Thread Reader App

@JominiW: 1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[madodel]

Anyone see anything else about what the Ukranians may be doing far behind the Russian lines today? People are saying it could be GLSDB or some other longer distance weapon taking out Russian air defenses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628157131324104708

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Anyone see anything else about what the Ukranians may be doing far behind the Russian lines today? People are saying it could be GLSDB or some other longer distance weapon taking out Russian air defenses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628157131324104708

Some speculation on this,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628151350142926848

 

[petit_bateau]

Sanctions matters

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1286

 

[petit_bateau]

Another fair sitrep

The Russians are pressing harder and harder along the entire front, but not very successfully. And they are also preparing for air operations. Analysis of the situation on the 360th day of a full-scale invasion — with maps

The Russian army switched from defense to attack on the entire eastern front. The occupiers are attacking in the Kupyansk area of the Kharkiv region and along the entire front line in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions

babel.ua

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone see anything else about what the Ukranians may be doing far behind the Russian lines today? People are saying it could be GLSDB or some other longer distance weapon taking out Russian air defenses.

Some chatter that GLSDB was used against Russian targets in Mariupol yesterday, unsubstantiated at this point:

21 Feb: Finally. Ukrainians RECEIVE LONG-RANGE MISSILES | War in Ukraine Explained

 

[iPlug]

Anyone see anything else about what the Ukranians may be doing far behind the Russian lines today? People are saying it could be GLSDB or some other longer distance weapon taking out Russian air defenses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628157131324104708

Some chatter that GLSDB was used against Russian targets in Mariupol yesterday, unsubstantiated at this point:

21 Feb: Finally. Ukrainians RECEIVE LONG-RANGE MISSILES | War in Ukraine Explained

Lots of Twitter traffic on this yesterday, now being reported in well established media channels. Hard to know at this point if GLSDB and/or the new Ukrainian long-range attack drones and/or something else new, but this latest volley seems to be rather successful:

...assaults on positions deep into Russian-held territory...areas are outside the known range of the American-made HIMARS missile systems that Ukraine has in its arsenal...explosions throughout the night, and air defenses were at work... the Mariupol City Council said on Wednesday morning that one of the explosions had destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse in the central district near the airport.​

​

...longer-range weapons to attack concentrations of Russian troops, supply lines, command centers and ammunition depots...military analysts said it was likely that they would be used on the battlefield before being announced to catch Russian forces by surprise.​

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/22/world/russia-ukraine-biden-news/ukraine-appears-to-attack-deep-into-russian-occupied-territory

Sanctions matters

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1286

Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts, the Russian economy continues to deteriorate. Bloomberg Economics estimates that Russia’s economy is on track to lose $190 billion in GDP by 2026, relative to its prewar path.​

 

[nativewolf]

Anyone see anything else about what the Ukranians may be doing far behind the Russian lines today? People are saying it could be GLSDB or some other longer distance weapon taking out Russian air defenses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628157131324104708

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So this has been discussed on this thread before but I think not really appreciated. This is a fairly accurate long range solution that works, is cheap, and in Ukraine hands. Really needs air defense suppression

 

[iPlug]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So this has been discussed on this thread before but I think not really appreciated. This is a fairly accurate long range solution that works, is cheap, and in Ukraine hands. Really needs air defense suppression

These JDAM-ERs were announced in a package in December and were officially reported to be delivered by June, but wonder if that timetable was a bit of a cover and if some could have already been delivered.

-$25,000 bolt-on kit with a GPS seeker and long vanes for maneuvering upgrades placed on 500, 1,000, or 2,000-pound "dumb bombs" converting them into smart bombs

-Ukrainian planes would fly fast and low to the front lines, pitch up and “toss” bombs and high tail it back to safety, striking Russian targets up to 50 miles away


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/22/ukrainian-pilots-could-toss-their-new-gps-guided-bombs-50-miles-behind-russian-lines

 

[nativewolf]

Yes, I was thinking maybe something like that has been delivered

 

[SageBrush]

Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts, the Russian economy continues to deteriorate. Bloomberg Economics estimates that Russia’s economy is on track to lose $190 billion in GDP by 2026, relative to its prewar path.

I read today that the EU bought 50B USD of gas and 80B USD of oil from Russia in the past year. The EU survived the winter by buying expensive LNG NG from Algeria, Norway, and the USA but it appears they have come around to the idea that PV/Wind is the way to go price-wise and energy security wise. If they keep going all out, they will be electricity independent of NG by 2026.

Oil is a different matter, but I'd like to think that they do not have to buy it from Russia. Weaning itself off that fossil fuel is a matter of transitioning to electric transport.

So with all due respect to economic sanctions, I think their substantial effect is in degrading Russia technologically. The main economic hammer, by far, is to not buy fossils from Russia.

 

[madodel]

Escalation ladder

US accuses Russia of violating key nuclear arms control treaty

Washington condemns Moscow for what it says is a ‘refusal to facilitate inspection activities’ regarding New Start treaty

www.theguardian.com

Russia suspends only remaining major nuclear treaty with US

So is the Cold War back on?

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that Moscow was suspending its participation in the New START treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States — sharply upping the ante amid tensions with Washington over the fighting in Ukraine.

Speaking in his state-of-the-nation address, Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, a move that would end a global ban on nuclear weapons tests in place since the end of the Cold War.

 

[petit_bateau]

I read today that the EU bought 50B USD of gas and 80B USD of oil from Russia in the past year. The EU survived the winter by buying expensive LNG NG from Algeria, Norway, and the USA but it appears they have come around to the idea that PV/Wind is the way to go price-wise and energy security wise. If they keep going all out, they will be electricity independent of NG by 2026.

Oil is a different matter, but I'd like to think that they do not have to buy it from Russia. Weaning itself off that fossil fuel is a matter of transitioning to electric transport.

So with all due respect to economic sanctions, I think their substantial effect is in degrading Russia technologically. The main economic hammer, by far, is to not buy fossils from Russia.

The EU + EFTA + UK + etc have been transitioning out of Russian fossils all year. It is basically all stopped now apart from some untouchables like Hungary and similar, the last fossil ratchet was in Dec-2022. So for Russia Y2 is going to be a lot harder than Y1. It remains to be seen if the converse is true for EU/etc as there are pluses and minuses on next winter's balance sheet.

 

[petit_bateau]

More on the sanctions ratchet next stage re EU

EU states urge crackdown on Russia over sanctions-evading arms ploy

Moscow accused of attempting to source weapons parts through front companies in neighbouring states

www.theguardian.com

 

[wdolson]

Another fair sitrep

The Russians are pressing harder and harder along the entire front, but not very successfully. And they are also preparing for air operations. Analysis of the situation on the 360th day of a full-scale invasion — with maps

The Russian army switched from defense to attack on the entire eastern front. The occupiers are attacking in the Kupyansk area of the Kharkiv region and along the entire front line in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions

babel.ua

A supporting bit of information to this is the news that Wagner has not been cut off from supply, they were simply cut back to the same supply level regular Russian army units are getting. For Wagner, used to plentiful supply this was a shock the system. If true, this indicates how bad the Russian supply situation is

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628354732053131265

According to this the army was only able to set aside a one day supply of assault supply for the Vulhedar attack.

If supply is that critical, the army has no business going over to the offensive anywhere. They might be able to mount a defense at the current supply levels if managed correctly, but the supply just isn't there for offensive operations. By trying to conduct offensives now, they are making their defense later all the weaker. When the Ukrainians do go over to the offense, Russia will have fewer supplies, fewer troops, and less equipment to mount a defense. The chances of another cascading collapse like Kharkhiv is all the more possible.

These JDAM-ERs were announced in a package in December and were officially reported to be delivered by June, but wonder if that timetable was a bit of a cover and if some could have already been delivered.

-$25,000 bolt-on kit with a GPS seeker and long vanes for maneuvering upgrades placed on 500, 1,000, or 2,000-pound "dumb bombs" converting them into smart bombs

-Ukrainian planes would fly fast and low to the front lines, pitch up and “toss” bombs and high tail it back to safety, striking Russian targets up to 50 miles away


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/22/ukrainian-pilots-could-toss-their-new-gps-guided-bombs-50-miles-behind-russian-lines

There is a JDAMS-ER with rocket assist that has a range very close to the ATACMS. If Ukraine has some of those now, all Russian rear areas are at risk. And if Russian supply is already as bad as it appears, this will make their situation worse.

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App