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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Aggregation article. Oilprice.com is well...lets just say very pro oil site.

Looks like a pretty solid article. If a source has good data but questionable opinions I'm OK sorting one from the other.

At the rate Russia has burned through supplies, there are signs they are scraping the bottom of the barrel across the spectrum. Despite staggeringly high losses among mobiks on the front, they have not been sending more into combat. They don't appear to be training them, just building what amount to homeless camps for them. There are stories of mobiks getting rusted AKs and pictures of mobiks with rifles from the WW II era. Other museum piece equipment has been seen in many places.

Many troops have complained that all they have are a rifle and nothing else. At the start of the war every squad had a number of MANPADS and ATGMs as well as grenades, grenade launchers and squad level machine guns. All of those things are disappearing from units.

All troops traveled by BMP or other personnel vehicle at the start of the war, but intercepted phone calls talk about units only have a few BMPs and tanks left. More elite units are probably better equipped, but many units are getting very poor levels of equipment.

Intercepted calls also talk about a lack of food and even water at the front. Many talk about having to drink from puddles.

Perun's latest video was about winter warfare. He did make the point that the individual Russians at the front have mostly come from parts of Russia that have harsher winters than Ukraine. They have some concept of how to survive winter. But to keep an army in the field in winter requires more supply. First winter uniforms are needed, but once the men have warm enough clothing, there are many more needs. The need to rotate troops off the front line becomes more necessary. In the summer troops on the front line for too long will be miserable and suffer from low morale, but in the winter they will be getting sick and suffering from frostbite and hypothermia if left out there too long.

Fuel needs go way up in the winter too. Burning fuel to keep people warm becomes necessary. Vehicles are also less fuel efficient and will need to be idled when sitting to both keep lubricants from gelling and keep the crew warm. Russia has a fuel transport problem. Their ability to move fuel to the front by rail was hurt by the Kerch bridge attack and they have had a chronic shortage of fuel trucks the entire war. A shortage that has just kept getting worse.

Russia also has an alcohol problem in their ranks. A lot of troops are drinking heavily and that both leads to people who may know better doing things to harm themselves in the cold as well as cause people to loose body heat that they need for survival.

I think Russia is trying to support an army in the field that is much larger than their logistics infrastructure can fully support. The cold weather is going to make this problem a lot worse.

Apparently the USA will negotiate for the release of a WNBA player that has such luke-warm feelings that she won't stand for the national anthem, but she takes priority over someone that's actually served his country with honor, a retired Marine.

My country disgusts me at times, and this is one of them.

From what I read the Russians flat out refused to negotiate for the release of Whelan. If your opponent is willing to negotiate for one person but not another, you save the person you can.
 
Yes, she made a convenient and valuable pawn. I'm fairly sure she exercised extremely poor judgement and knew exactly what she was packing in her luggage though. Lesson learned. Probably very few vacations to Moscow in her future.
Apparently the USA will negotiate for the release of a WNBA player that has such luke-warm feelings that she won't stand for the national anthem, but she takes priority over someone that's actually served his country with honor, a retired Marine.

My country disgusts me at times, and this is one of them.

Also of note I think:

Trump had two years to get Whelan free...

So much for his 'leverage' with the Russian Dictator...
 
Most concerning is the bad precedent of trading dangerous criminals (major arms dealer in this case) for a hostage (Griner). This will certainly incentivize Russia to do more kidnapping because such things prove asymmetrically effective for Russia. It's horrible to say we should not try to get everyone back by almost any means, but that is the sad reality.

Another thing - Griner and Whelan have gotten a lot of attention, but Marc Fogel is someone with charges very similar to Griner who should have been top of the prisoner exchange list. Hardly anyone should have been traveling to Russia outside of diplomatic missions for some time before Russia's war on Ukraine. But Fogel was kidnapped at a time before it was clear Russia was imminently threatening invasion. In fact, his kidnapping should have been strong further warning to others not to go.
 
Whelan's family disagrees.


Of course people who are not directly invested would armchair general like this.

I come from a military family. We don't leave our own behind.

My POINT was that our negotiating position is far better than we used it for.
 
I come from a military family. We don't leave our own behind.

My POINT was that our negotiating position is far better than we used it for.
But this isn't purely a military situation or a real time situation on the battlefield (unlike the Russians who literally leave theirs behind while retreating).

Russia has made it clear that for whatever reason that this was a one or none situation, not both. Your response was a desire to shove ATACMS into Russia's face explosively.


I don't like it, but people like you who have a failure to accept that you can't get everything you want in the short term is not going to get you much or worse no release of anyone. Want to follow someone who can't accept failure in short term gain? Look at Russia and Putin.

Edit: and to be clear Whelan's family is frustrated with the process as well (and understandibly so). But they also appear to understand the process isn't as simple as threatening Russia with more bombs, something certain people fail to understand.

Note that this sets aside whether USA should provide other certain weapons to Ukraine, but I think those should be separate issues and USA should reserve the right to give those weapons and not necessarily tie it to this.
 
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Why did Russia care about the arms dealer ?
I'm sure he has many influential/wealthy friends among the Russian elite. I wouldn't be surprised if Russian intelligence was well aware of Griner's medicating preferences, and had their best dog waiting for her when she stepped off the plane. Specifically to barter for Bout.
 
But this isn't purely a military situation or a real time situation on the battlefield (unlike the Russians who literally leave theirs behind while retreating).

Russia has made it clear that for whatever reason that this was a one or none situation, not both. Your response was a desire to shove ATACMS into Russia's face explosively.


I don't like it, but people like you who have a failure to accept that you can't get everything you want in the short term is not going to get you much or worse no release of anyone. Want to follow someone who can't accept failure in short term gain? Look at Russia and Putin.

Edit: and to be clear Whelan's family is frustrated with the process as well (and understandibly so). But they also appear to understand the process isn't as simple as threatening Russia with more bombs, something certain people fail to understand.

Note that this sets aside whether USA should provide other certain weapons to Ukraine, but I think those should be separate issues and USA should reserve the right to give those weapons and not necessarily tie it to this.

You are taking things too literal. My ATACMS comment was hyperbole (and most here read it as such), with the desired effect of emphasizing that we made a poor trade, from a position of strength (she's not a spy or someone high-value to national security, we didn't HAVE to have her back, honestly).
 
I'm sure he has many influential/wealthy friends among the Russian elite. I wouldn't be surprised if Russian intelligence was well aware of Griner's medicating preferences, and had their best dog waiting for her when she stepped off the plane. Specifically to barter for Bout.

That, and there is a degree of personal responsibility. Anyone with any international travel experience knows that laws in different countries are things you don't trifle with. I believe she did have the cabanas oil in her possession, it wasn't planted, and it was an easy target for the FSB to go after her. She should have had the good sense to not bring anything controversial with her.
 
Edit:hahahaha so fast on the dislike button, shows your true colors

Personal attack? I read FAST. I type at 100 words per minute. It's not like what you posted was an essay.

EDIT - and I had already read the link you posted. I understood their position. I just don't agree with yours.

EDIT 2 - you started with the "disagrees", I just happened to pick up your habit. Reciprocation.
 
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You are taking things too literal. My ATACMS comment was hyperbole (and most here read it as such), with the desired effect of emphasizing that we made a poor trade, from a position of strength (she's not a spy or someone high-value to national security, we didn't HAVE to have her back, honestly).
I wouldn't venture down the path of assigning varying value to US citizens. The argument could be made that as a man with extensive military experience, Whelan is better equipped for time in a Russian penal colony. But that doesn't matter, because the Russians weren't willing to give him up without another prisoner in German custody. That the Germans were unwilling to give up. Probably many layers of complexity to the negotiations that we aren't aware of.
 
I wouldn't venture down the path of assigning varying value to US citizens. The argument could be made that as a man with extensive military experience, Whelan is better equipped for time in a Russian penal colony. But that doesn't matter, because the Russians weren't willing to give him up without another prisoner in German custody. That the Germans were unwilling to give up. Probably many layers of complexity to the negotiations that we aren't aware of.

Agreed, that for sure has colored by my personal experience. My father did two tours in Vietnam as a Marine corporal, voluntarily, and was part of the crews that flew in the back of Heuy's pulling people off the killing fields. It was instilled in me at a young age that anyone that served our country deserves the highest honors, including protecting them from foreign actors.

Still, we could have fought harder (both administrations) to bring him home.
 
Anyone with an average or higher IQ would have read the ATACMS comment as "we have negotiating power". I still stand by my comments.
Escalation in such matter is also something that has been suggested by others online as well, so hyperbole like that I cannot assume is not serious. Many a people have said outlandish things and we're actually quite serious, especially on the internet. (And of course look no further than Elon Musk at times.)

In the future I will make it a point to ask for clarification though.
 
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