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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv counteroffensive has not yet culminated after one month of successful operations and is now advancing into western Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces captured Hrekivka and Makiivka in western Luhansk Oblast (approximately 20 km s
"Russian forces are likely focusing on the defense of the Svatove-Kreminna frontline because they are increasingly concerned that Ukrainian penetration of this line will allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Starobilsk, a key Russian logistics hub about 50km east of Svatove, through which run many ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that are essential to Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast. Access to the R66 will likely also allow Ukrainian troops to push south from Svatove to Kreminna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, which would likely have substantial informational effects considering the protracted and costly Russian campaign to capture Severodonetsk in June."
If they take svatove they will be able to have Starobilisk under artillery fire in a day. That's where Lapin had his HQ and likely his replacement still does. It is the key point in Luhansk as far as GLOC
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Agreed. It's like arguing with a toddler. They are woefully outmatched, and just stomp their feet and refuse to give any rational explanation.
To the ignore bin for both dumb dumbs.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
I thought this was a subforum for discussions (which are not trolling), not consensus virtue signaling.
And thanks BKP for passing some on. You can't take it with you is trite..but true.
I'm seeing reporting now from credible security services that there is no longer checks and balances. Putin is the guy who can give the order and pull the trigger. We still tend to look at Russia (for whatever reason) as a law abiding nation. It is not. Putin has usurped power and he is not going to give it up easily.
Seeing reports now of conscripts sleeping on the ground without tents or cold weather supplies. There is talk that some groups are rebelling. This type of thing may be our only hope if it spreads deeply enough into the Russian armed forces.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv counteroffensive has not yet culminated after one month of successful operations and is now advancing into western Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces captured Hrekivka and Makiivka in western Luhansk Oblast (approximately 20 km swww.understandingwar.org
"Russian forces are likely focusing on the defense of the Svatove-Kreminna frontline because they are increasingly concerned that Ukrainian penetration of this line will allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Starobilsk, a key Russian logistics hub about 50km east of Svatove, through which run many ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that are essential to Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast. Access to the R66 will likely also allow Ukrainian troops to push south from Svatove to Kreminna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, which would likely have substantial informational effects considering the protracted and costly Russian campaign to capture Severodonetsk in June."
If they take svatove they will be able to have Starobilisk under artillery fire in a day. That's where Lapin had his HQ and likely his replacement still does. It is the key point in Luhansk as far as GLOC
We're witnessing a rapid reversal in the occupation by the Russians. They had the manpower initially to take land, but they didn't bring enough manpower to hold what they have conquered, which is a pretty classic mistake in terms of logistical planning.
My gut tells me that Ukraine is trying to get as much land reclaimed before the rainy season there starts. Once that happens, heavy armor will lose a great deal of it's value, to both sides.
BTW, where the @#$% is the Russian Air Force in all this? Simply nothing being reported at all about them using air assets to try to slow the Ukrainian advance.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
"Discussions" means that you should have the emotional maturity to recognize your own biases and admit you might be wrong on something. The ENTIRE point of discourse is to learn something from someone else. I gave you that opportunity, twice, to explain your position. You refused both times and at that point it was clear that you simply had a pre-conceived notion of what you wanted to believe, probably something that is a sound byte you heard somewhere but probably haven't even really thought it through yourself. You had no real intention of listening to anyone that wasn't going to say exactly what you heard.
No, an emotionally and intellectually mature person would be able to know their own biases (I know mine - just ask @madodel or @wdolson - we've had some KNOCK DOWN drag out fights about liberalism vs. conservativism - yet we still discuss things and respect each other) and to be open to being shown some or all of their rationalization on a subject was either incomplete, or just wrong. I've had people here change my mind on things, and I'm open to hearing their thoughts. You don't appear to have that, but I hope that one day you will.
You won't be hearing from me again, not till I perceive you aren't just regurgitating sound bytes without deeper thought.
The talking heads in Russia complained about this 2 weeks ago, media (state directed) complained too. So the airforce flew and lost 10 aircraft in 2 days. Not flying again. They have not been a factor at all and AGAIN ( i can repeat and repeat) I think this war has marked the end of manned airframes. The f35 is a wondrous billing machine but even idiots in the airforce (so so many) have to be seeing that drones are starting to carry anti drone weapons.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Who else remember spy planes like the SR71?
There’s a reason they’re obsolete now and like them our manned air forces will also become relics of the past.
That is also my impression.
It is also a matter of taking advantage of any superiority in numbers, supplies and positions while it lasts.
Given sufficient time, the Russians will reorganise.
Moving fast also means Russian troops and logistics struggle to keep up, taking advantage of logistic weaknesses, and under pressure the Russians are prone to retreating and leaving some valuable military hardware behind.
The Ukrainian troops also need some rest and rotation and need supplies to keep up.
To some extent an army liberating territory always has the advantage, troops have higher morale, the local populace are generally supportive, do not need a garrison to keep them in order, and are willing to help with food and logistics.
Over winter, I expect the pace to slow and the war to get into more of a grinding phase.
One danger for the Ukrainians is the drones the Russians are getting from Iran. Ukraine needs good ways of shooting down or neutralising the drones and they need to ramp up their own drones.
Moving fast is another reason why the Russian drones are not currently impacting on the advance, Ukraine knows when Russian satellites pass overhead, moving targets are harder to locate and hit.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Agreed, I'm just still so amazed by it. We saw one video, early early on of an Su-57 in action, but that appeared to be in an area where the Russians had clearly established air dominance.
Again…Elon makes a ridiculous statement. Digging up a 2012 map of votes (purposely before the Crimean invasion] and falsely states that the party of regions is a pro Russian party. It’s clearly not a pro Russian party as it sought increased ties with Europe.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I wonder if Elon has seen 'Winter on Fire'. A lot came to light after 2014. Turns out that dialing state corruption to 17 on a 0-10 scale and picking off protestors with snipers is bad for approval ratings.
There's quite a difference between being in a pro Russia party pre invasion '14, and wanting Russia to invade. There's a reason that party mostly vaporized post invasion of '14.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Someone posted a 2019 map, and here was Musk's response:
I think it's pretty obvious most people are making massive extrapolations about what Musk is saying, jumping to conclusions. He should know better, but I stay off social media for the most part because everyone's so triggered all the time - Outrage is somehow a virtue, and those outraged masses read their own interpretations into every statement without stopping to consider nuanced possibilities.
It's a classic failure for him to read a room. I think it's obvious he's imagining some sort of actual democratic and free vote in the region, which at this moment isn't possible. And if so, he isn't thinking through the fact that the Russian military has killed, tortured residents in occupied areas, and many pro-Ukraine residents fled as the war began, so we'd have a skewed sample unless magically the displaced could return.
I wouldn't be surprised if he's thinking in idealistic terms rather than the current reality.
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Some people don't have mixed ancestry. One branch of my family has been in North America since the 1620s. When I did my DNA ancestry I was surprised I was all northern European except for a tiny sliver of Sardinian which probably came from the Spanish Armada (many ships were shipwrecked in Ireland near where my Irish ancestors came from).
One example is the HARM missiles we're sending. They are an older model of the AGM-88 that was scheduled for upgrade. Instead of upgrading them, they are being expended in Ukraine and are being replaced with new, up to date AGMs. Overall the cost of a brand new missile is only a fraction more than an update would cost.
The US has also sent TOW missiles which data back to Vietnam. They were taking up space in warehouses.
There will probably still be a place for manned aircraft, but drones have reduced their utility. Trent Telenko has had a series of threads lately on how drones have created an existential threat to the F-35. Drones can now threaten their bases and some heavy AA assets would need to be based there to take out the drones.
The Russians have given up on using aviation because at this point the Ukrainians AA is too good. The collapse of Kharkhiv put a lot of modern AA systems in Ukrainian hands.
The Russians are facing some incredible problems reorganizing. To truly reorganize would take 10+ years if everything goes well.
If the Ukrainians let off the pressure, the Russians probably could probably dig in and set up some better defenses, but with aged equipment, poor morale, and a deteriorating political situation at home, they have many challenges to setting up a serious defense.
The pace may not slow much over the winter. Kyiv gets cold in the winter, but the south is much milder. Kherson can be brutal for unprotected troops outside
Kherson Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark
But it's nothing compared to what French and German troops faced in their respective winters trying to take Moscow.
Donesk is a little colder, but tolerable for a well equipped army
Donetsk Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark
The rainfall in the south is less too. Both regions above average about 1 inch (2.5 cm) of rain in October and also in November. If the ground freezes this winter (it didn't last winter), that's actually fairly good for tanks.
The Ukrainians are systematically closing the more northern fronts of this war, which are the more problematic in the fall.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Didn't see this mentioned when posted Tues morning. This is likely the kinda stuff prompting Elon to speak up.
(I'm in the Elon-is-wrong camp now if anyone cares. But he's right if he's just doing anything to avert nuclear war)
www.cbsnews.com
(I'm in the Elon-is-wrong camp now if anyone cares. But he's right if he's just doing anything to avert nuclear war)
Rare video shows Russia moving equipment belonging to a nuclear weapons unit
An analyst says the video shared online "is a very good example of Russian strategy" but not necessarily an imminent threat.
www.cbsnews.com
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