When I see stuff like this I just look at the Finnish strategist describing the russian linguistic variations on lying and the use of lies in russian society. Then I just ignore itWonder if this guy, presidential aide and head of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky, is Putin's poison pill in case he is ousted:
The Only Russian Official Angrier Than Putin at How Things Are Going in Ukraine
He's at the negotiating table.slate.com
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch.
Didn't someone here guesstimate that the Russians had/have ~20 generals running the Ukraine conflict?
Tiger
Active Member
The ~20 generals running the Ukraine conflict has been reported by analysts. But as also mentioned here, it's like whack-a-mole. A colonel or lower ranking general or out of war zone general will likely just replace them. Promotions are cheap, and apparently life is as well for said military. Either way, amazing stats for this "advanced" military.
In another blow to Putin, Macron re-elected today (as opposed to other candidate he funded).
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Some interesting twitter posts form the guy about the advantages Ukraine will get from 155mm artillery:-
I have a hard time convincing my wife Ukraine is likely to win the war, but when you follow it closely, the advantages are stacking up for Ukraine, and a lot of very useful additional heavy weapons are in the process of being shipped and deployed.
Unfortunately the chances of a negotiated settlement seem low, Putin seems in total denial about how the war is progressing. and is likely to progress.
Will Putin change his mind if becomes apparent the current plan is also failing?
I have a hard time convincing my wife Ukraine is likely to win the war, but when you follow it closely, the advantages are stacking up for Ukraine, and a lot of very useful additional heavy weapons are in the process of being shipped and deployed.
Unfortunately the chances of a negotiated settlement seem low, Putin seems in total denial about how the war is progressing. and is likely to progress.
Will Putin change his mind if becomes apparent the current plan is also failing?
Other questions - if the mystery fires and infrastructure failures continue inside Russia, perhaps the question is will Putin/Russia change its mind? If NATO has communicated a red line for use of WMD and current plan is failing…? The world needs to make it crystal clear what the consequences will be for all scenarios. I’ve concluded the messaging needs to be to Russians writ large, and all the leaders. It’s not clear Putin will change course.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I would work from the assumption that Putin won't change course unless its to something new of his choosing and desire. He's not going to outright admit defeat, even if his army is completely destroyed and there's nobody left at the border to stop Ukraine from invading Russia (they won't - that's not my point).
Or at least, that'd be my assumption. I haven't followed this sort of thing closely but my impression is that Putin hasn't ever been forced into doing anything he didn't want to. I see no reason for the special operation to have changed anything about his personality in this regard.
Terminator857
Active Member
Seems obvious to me that Ukraine is getting stronger because the west is supplying it more, while Russia is getting weaker.
Yep. Plan A failed, now plan B is failing. Will it take 6 weeks like plan A for Putin to figure that out? What will plan C be?
Much notice of the recent high level meetings in Kiev with the USA Sec of Defense and State. Curious high level meetings, wonder what this is about? Is it that the USA finally prepares for long term support by doing things like bring ing1000 ukrainians to the USA to learn to do maint on F16s and abrams? Will this be the first step in much deeper cooperation? Is it part of a negotiation on funding? Related to Finland and Sweden joining NATO?
Interesting timing ...interesting group of people....
What really gives though...that would be an interesting story.
Interesting timing ...interesting group of people....
What really gives though...that would be an interesting story.
Latest fire in Russia:
Large fire reported at oil storage depot in Russia's city of Bryansk - agencies
Large fire reported at oil storage depot in Russia's city of Bryansk - agencies
A large fire was reported early on Monday at an oil storage facility in the Russian city of Bryansk, Russian news agencies reported, citing the emergency services ministry.
Terminator857
Active Member
To me it is politics. U.S. wants to show it supports Ukraine. It is politically popular now. They don't want to send Biden, too risky, so they send the next best thing.
I was about to post this thread, which is a fleshing out of what you posted
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
The western artillery coming appears to have air burst fuzes. That's going to be a game changer for the Ukrainians. That pretty much eliminates the advantages of foxholes and trenches. NATO and other developed countries switched to air burst fuzes in the last 20 years, but Russia doesn't make them and doesn't use them.
Interesting thing about Putin. He was seen at a meeting gripping the table hard
Video of Vladimir Putin gripping table in meeting sparks concerns about his health
Gripping the table hard is a technique taught to Parkinson's patients to hide their tremors. People with advanced Parkinson's can become psychotic.
My partner thinks he has a brain tumor because his compensating behavior is mostly on one side which is more consistent with a brain tumor. Advanced Parkinson's also has speech issues and there are no signs of that from him.
I read that the administration was debating who to send. Kamala Harris was on the short list. A lot of western countries are sending people, sometimes heads of state to show the Russians the west is serious about supporting Ukraine.
It's more than just the oil facility
The second fire appears to be a weapons storage facility. The Russians are so hard up they are trying to recover the missiles from the Moskva.
The second facility would not be a false flag attack. Considering all the mysterious damage in the last few days. It could be Russian sabotage.
mars_or_bust
Member
However, some of these attacks could also be directed by Putin, in order to provide a pretext for mass mobilisation.... Hard to tell, but it seems at this stage the only way Russia has a chance of any face saving outcome in Ukraine is with LOTS more troops, and one needs mobilisaton for that. Risky of course, as it could spur a civil war or a coup, but there seems to be few alternative paths Putin can make at this point.
Not sure on Russian internal sabotage. The old "cui bono?" principle. Short of anarchists (of which we haven't heard in Russia at this time), which Russian faction would have an interest into taking out serious infrastructure of their own in the middle of a shooting war that they are losing?
Not sure on false flag either. False flag ops would have involved large civilian targets with large casualties just like Russians did before (under Putin's guidance none the less) in preparation for Chechen war part 2. Also last target was way too far for Ukraine's short ballistic missiles Tochka-U or helicopters (assuming they'd even be able to penetrate that far into the Russian ADA).
Occam's razor principle would indicate Ukrainian SOF. Taking out strategic stuff while limiting any collateral damage to civilians, in order to hamstring the invasion forces. NOT bragging about, so not to give Putin a reason to convert his "special operation" into a full fledged war for the reasons you mentioned. Russian maintenance is well known (even before the current affair) as being lacking and/or corrupt, so you have plausible deniability
And they'd be able to blend in pretty easily, while the current "special operation" RoE limis some of the security measures Russians could take publicly to protect the targets.That's third hand news involving two low reliability sources: a German tabloid and a Belorussian opposition web TV service. I don't think that any missiles recovered from the bottom of the Black Sea after at least more than a week would be able to be used safely in combat. On the other side, the recovery vessel Kommuna is there, trying to reach Moskva's resting place. That gives fuel to a lot of interesting questions about what are the Russians so desperate to recover right away. I don't buy the secret documents/military equipment as what's the rush? No one else can recover them at this time, not with Turkey blocking the straits for the duration of the conflict. Nukes, maybe?
Not sure on Russian internal sabotage. The old "cui bono?" principle. Short of anarchists (of which we haven't heard in Russia at this time), which Russian faction would have an interest into taking out serious infrastructure of their own in the middle of a shooting war that they are losing?
Not sure on false flag either. False flag ops would have involved large civilian targets with large casualties just like Russians did before (under Putin's guidance none the less) in preparation for Chechen war part 2. Also last target was way too far for Ukraine's short ballistic missiles Tochka-U or helicopters (assuming they'd even be able to penetrate that far into the Russian ADA).
Occam's razor principle would indicate Ukrainian SOF. Taking out strategic stuff while limiting any collateral damage to civilians, in order to hamstring the invasion forces. NOT bragging about, so not to give Putin a reason to convert his "special operation" into a full fledged war for the reasons you mentioned. Russian maintenance is well known (even before the current affair) as being lacking and/or corrupt, so you have plausible deniability
That's third hand news involving two low reliability sources: a German tabloid and a Belorussian opposition web TV service. I don't think that any missiles recovered from the bottom of the Black Sea after at least more than a week would be able to be used safely in combat. On the other side, the recovery vessel Kommuna is there, trying to reach Moskva's resting place. That gives fuel to a lot of interesting questions about what are the Russians so desperate to recover right away. I don't buy the secret documents/military equipment as what's the rush? No one else can recover them at this time, not with Turkey blocking the straits for the duration of the conflict. Nukes, maybe?
I've found Nexta to be pretty accurate thus far. I've seen many stories reported there later reported by other sources.
I agree dunking the missiles in salt water would render them unreliable. The Russians are trying to recover something there. There were rumors floating around that the ship was carrying nukes, but others who know Russian nuclear protocols have said that while the Moskva could launch tactical nukes, they would not be loaded unless use was imminent.
This video of the moment the plant blew up has been posted
It sounds to me like a jet plane and a missile coming in. Some people have opined it's some kind of combustion within the plant.
If that was a Ukrainian air strike Russian air defenses are as bad as their army in the field, or worse. It doesn't seem right for a false flag. Any Russian false flag would be designed to scare the populous. When Putin has done them in the past they were on places like apartment buildings.
My partner saw satellite photos of the base in Bryansk taken within the last couple of days. It was crammed to the gills with military equipment all tightly packed together. If they were loaded with ammunition and somebody set one off it could have caused a chain reaction burning up many vehicles.
Additionally the main rail line from Bryansk to Ukraine was destroyed. Track can be replaced relatively quickly, but it will be a few days to a week before the trains will be rolling again.
EDIT:
Here is some more surveillance footage I just came across
It looks like some kind of device planted at the base of the tank. In the first seconds of the video the screen blanks which may have been another storage tank blowing up first.
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Difficult to see, but I think that's just where it ruptured from an explosion nearby. Currently consensus seems to suggest guided missiles were the cause.
petit_bateau
Active Member
There is no way any of the equipment or munitions onboard Moskva is being recovered for re-use.
There will only be two things the Russians are after recovering.
1. Any cryptographic material and equipment above a certain grade. Ordinarily on abandoning ship in a controlled fashion a lot of that gets destroyed or removed as part of the abandonment process. But not everything can necessarily be removed (it depends). Anyway the Russians will know the extent to which this is relevant.
2. Any nuclear devices. The Moskva carried 16 long range anti-ship missiles. These are the very large things in the inclined launch/carriage tubes down either side of the forward part of the ship. On this vessel these can only be reloaded in harbour. An ordinary Russian warload would be to have two or three of those equipped with tactical nuclear warheads and it would be reasonable that Moskva was carrying those. There is a smaller possibility that Moskva might have carried one or two other types of nuclear device, but those are more realistically off-loaded, and more likely to have been offloaded. My personal guess is that it is some of the anti-ship missile warheads that the Russians are keen to recover. Just imho.
Tiger
Active Member
At least everyone by now knows this kind fo thing will not fly with Putin:
Seems like more pragmatic approaches are being sought.
Seems like more pragmatic approaches are being sought.
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