-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
I can't believe the stock market will react positively for multiple gigafactories announcement soon if any. TM hasn't nailed down the full commitment with panasonic yet and there still has 2-3 billion $ captial gap even for the first gigafactory. Also it's ridiculous to position TM as a battery or energy storage provider in the long run because it's low margin captial intensive business at first, many asian companies can do better than TM in US as soon as the related patents are open to them.
So far, I haven't understood how this patent move will affect TM in long run? Many of TMC members used to envision an optimistic scenario that TM will be dominant in EV industry in 20-30 years not only by tens of million delivery number but also the potential IP licensing business. But it's clear now that Elon Musk's first priority is to push the adoption of EV, certainly it's all good for the mankind, growing TM business and making it as much as profitable sounds like 2nd priority if not lower. Assuming entire world does switch to EV transportation in 20-30 years as Elon Musk envisioned, but at that time, what's the market share of TM? Considering a lot of big names in ICE age can still live well with Tesla's technology and patents. It'll be totally different story from the evolution in mobile phone industry after iphone emerging. The new comers like Apple and Samsung simply put old players to the hell like MOT/NOKIA and RIM. I used to assume similar thing will happen in EV evolution but I don't think that will stand any more.
So far, I haven't understood how this patent move will affect TM in long run? Many of TMC members used to envision an optimistic scenario that TM will be dominant in EV industry in 20-30 years not only by tens of million delivery number but also the potential IP licensing business. But it's clear now that Elon Musk's first priority is to push the adoption of EV, certainly it's all good for the mankind, growing TM business and making it as much as profitable sounds like 2nd priority if not lower. Assuming entire world does switch to EV transportation in 20-30 years as Elon Musk envisioned, but at that time, what's the market share of TM? Considering a lot of big names in ICE age can still live well with Tesla's technology and patents. It'll be totally different story from the evolution in mobile phone industry after iphone emerging. The new comers like Apple and Samsung simply put old players to the hell like MOT/NOKIA and RIM. I used to assume similar thing will happen in EV evolution but I don't think that will stand any more.
Last edited:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Musk seems to think patents have limited usefulness, and that you should be innovating fast enough that your patents are always being outdated. As long as Tesla can keep ahead of the competition I don't see any problem with allowing others to use their patents, which Tesla has presumably already moved beyond to some degree. Even if some company used all of Tesla's patents today and started developing a car around them that would still put them 2-3 years behind Tesla. However they could quickly start building superchargers since they are much less complex devices that don't require anywhere near the same engineering and testing, and more SC's would benefit Tesla and Tesla vehicle owners.
EV is a new industry and TM is no doubt the successful pioneer in EV industry. But like any other industries, the innovation curve will become flat eventually, I guess it might take another 10 years to saturate the battery and EV technology growth. By that time, if there is no patent protection and technology barrier, any market lead can be overturned by late comers for whatever reasons. This scenario affects the very long term (20-30 years) investment prospect for TSLA, though I belive TSLA will still be fine for 5-10 years as soon as the EV technology is fast evolving
The timing of the patent announcement makes me think that it is done to show Panasonic reduced risk of investment as other companies may start using similar cell technology. Elon specifically mentioned that he wants others to adopt to smaller form factor in the conf call.
About superchargers, I believe that other companies may first work on a car and then start deploying superchargers. This won't have a clear advantage to Tesla in the short run. I still think that the number of superchargers required for a likely 1M cars in 2020 is enormous. Tesla sees an opportunity here if others join.
On likely partners, I believe Nissan should join Tesla smaller cells program and quickly replace leaf batteries with the smaller form. Given the volume, Nissan can easily offer higher range or lower price in a few years . Electric G35 may also work well here.
About superchargers, I believe that other companies may first work on a car and then start deploying superchargers. This won't have a clear advantage to Tesla in the short run. I still think that the number of superchargers required for a likely 1M cars in 2020 is enormous. Tesla sees an opportunity here if others join.
On likely partners, I believe Nissan should join Tesla smaller cells program and quickly replace leaf batteries with the smaller form. Given the volume, Nissan can easily offer higher range or lower price in a few years . Electric G35 may also work well here.
I hope this is not TRUE because it indicates that how bold of gigafactory announcement back to Feburary, we were all fooled that Panasonic would have jumped on the boat for sure. Then it implies Elon and TM's execution plan is not perfect and sometimes flawed. How about other promises Elon made like self-driving car, 2-3 gigafactories in US, one factory in China, at least two factories in Europe? Does he need to make "radical" movement every time at the risk of shareholder's interests? That being said if this patent movement is proved to be true to secure the gigafactory partnership with Panasonic, I'll be very disappointed with Elon/TM's execution, and I'll review his past promises carefully again.
I think it's pretty straight forward and clear why it was done. To accelerate EV production. Other companies didn't go the EV route because they didn't want Tesla to sue, so they did something else. That and Elon is comfortable in Tesla's lead that he would do this. This isn't one man acting alone, it's the board and rest of management team.
Krugerrand
Meow
First, what risk to shareholders? Last time I looked the stock was doing just fine for shareholders. Just looked again, and yep, doing just fine.
Secondarily, have you forgotten that this is the guy who wants to colonize Mars and die there (just not on impact)? Did you actually think such an individual would be thinking small scale when moving forward with Tesla? Really? Even non-mathematicians can do the math that if one giga-factory equals 1/2 million family cars per year at full production, that we - the people of Earth - are going to need a few more moving forward.
Patent movement is a double-edge sword, one way it can boost the EV industry and probably boost TSLA in short term. But it did put uncertainty for long term as more capable competitors will flood in eventually, so it does affect shareholder's interests in long term, at least we can call it uncertainty for long term. Probably I'm short-sighted, but I believe most of the TSLA investors are not Elon Musk in terms of intelligence, vision and wealth. So we can't blindly follow whatever he did and said, and we all should use our caution to follow him logically and wisely.
A Tesla Motors "job fair" created a massive bay-area traffic jam. Traffic & job fairs are common in Silicon Vallley. Elon's leadership is uncommon. The brightest most creative people in the most innovative place on earth, want to work for Elon Musk.
Can Tesla Motors innovate faster than the life cycle of their intellectual property? I'm betting on it.
Can Tesla Motors innovate faster than the life cycle of their intellectual property? I'm betting on it.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Relying on Patents to shut others out definitely doesn't work, because companies like Samsung will just violate the patents anyways and bleed you dry in litigation costs when you try to defend those patents.
Acquiring patents, and then licensing them at no cost to prevent the ICE automakers from temporarily burying EV technology with their own patents makes sense.
Well I have no doubt that Elon wants to accelerate EV adoption. But the timing suggests that he figured the investment of up to $5B in this field without a few big players supporting it may not be easy. Mercedes and Toyota both have worked closely with Tesla and are clearly familiar with what Elon is trying to do with Gen 3 and know Tesla's capability. Even then, they are not willing to put a dime for the GF says the investment is not easily accessible and hence the patent move.
Here is hoping GF investment gets done and announced with the help of Panasonic and one major manufacturer after patent move.
Krugerrand
Meow
You have no idea if they are interested or not. But even if they were, it seems to me they don't have much to offer where Giga Factory is concerned except money. They aren't mining companies, they don't make cells or battery parts. The point of Giga Factory is to vertically integrate battery production. Neither Daimler nor Toyota are in one of those complimentary businesses, so it doesn't actually make sense for them to be part of it.
So you expect Panasonic and mining companies to bring in additional $3B? Check valuations of Canadian nickel and lithium companies. Read everything Panasonic has said ever since the GF has been announced.
Where is the money going to come from?
doggusfluffy
Closed
You know who know one has mentioned yet as a direct Tesla patent beneficiary is Google with their electric self driving go-kart people we snickering at. They could throw in some money and destroy ICE manufacturers if they felt like it, saw a void in the market or even in some sort of freeze out maneuver they might even be compelled to action.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
That Daimler and Toyota is not investing is meaningless about the "accessibility". Daimler has been hedging their overall investment in Tesla for while already and they don't really intend to go into the EV market in a big way (compliance right now and they are rumored to be considering selling off their money-losing EV battery investments in order to boost overall company margin vs BMW), so they would not be interested in the first place. Toyota has trashed EVs publicly and made clear they are going the FCV direction, so they also would not be interested.
Krugerrand
Meow
Good to know that most on this board don't share my concern. if patent announcement is not really because of GF, I can see many advantages of broader EV adoption.
I share your view. It is a bold move for someone as small as Tesla to go into gigafactory alone and Panasonic seems culturally remote, reluctant and scared partner. Car makers are disinterested in bevs so far. I wish Google or Apple would jump in. Great opportunity for Larry Page to back his words with some meaningful well timed action.
Zzzz...
Member
Well Boston Power just raised $250M. It is small startup with tiny factory, producing cells that nothing special from technological point of view (207Wh/kg for BP cells vs 265Wh/kg Tesla is using). And it is not like potential Tesla partner had to come up with whole sum up front.
Bottom line getting a billion for Panasonic/LG Chem/Samsung SDI or even for a bunch of Chinese companies is a piece of cake. They all operate at totally different level compared to Boston Power like companies. Yet still BP was able to raise 1/4 of a billy. Heck, even A123(read Wanxiang) could come up with that sort of money. Bigger problem would be having mature and competitive tech. If Panasonic for whatever reason would not want to go into partnership with Tesla, there are at least dozen other battery producers who will be interested in developing Gigafactory with Tesla.
Similar threads
- Article
