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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
It is my understanding that after employee's cars are built they will open up the design studio by region, build the highly optioned cars first, then the lower end cars. Once those are in the works, open up the next region and so on. Am I interpreting this wrong?
Dan
Dan
The only thing I could think of is that it might depend on the lead time they want. So if you have to design your car 3 months before delivery, then you'll select your options before employees take delivery. Who knows if that's 3 months or 6 months, but I'm guessing the lead time will push design by region to be done before employees get their cars built.
History is a good predictor of future behavior, so look no further than the S and X. Based on that case, highly optioned, geographic region, then date within that region will be the priority. All of which Tesla controls and offers no visibility. Two years from now, TMC will be the hot bed of discontent threads over sequencing, configuration, production, and deliveries.
So, I think it will happen. How many Model X 70 kWh have been configured and built?
Why do you think the recent hype over ramping up production was released? The fear of people abandoning reservations over the wait is very real.
Few things:
1) It's going to be a tradeoff. There were some Model S cars that were leaking in car washes, for example. So a later model is likely to have a little less number of problems.
2) The tax credit could become a big item for many people. If I wasn't getting any tax credit, I wouldn't be able to get the Model 3 at this time. I would probably wait another 5 years for prices to come down on their own.
Did you get that in writing? I didn't.
…Either way, just being first in line at your local Tesla store on March 31 won’t necessarily determine your place in the Model 3 reservation queue. The Reservation Agreement makes that crystal clear. “We will establish your reservation sequence position in our sole discretion. We may decline reservations to avoid over-subscription or as we deem appropriate in our sole discretion. If your reservation is declined or we decide to cancel your reservation, you will be notified and your Reservation Payment will be refunded.”
Specifics Of Tesla Model 3 Reservations Revealed
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
It would be interesting to have an idea of how many reservationists view the tax credit as a deal breaker item. I am treating the tax credit as an unexpected bonus should I fall within the parameters. I am not budgeting for it however. Don't know how many would feel differently.
Dan
From My Tesla page:
"You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."
I guess technically it doesn't say "in reservation order", but waiting years to configure seems to be inconsistent with the above statement.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
I think if you are in Ohio and ordering a base model it is pretty unlikely you will get the full tax credit since you are probably in the "last" or close to last delivery area for the continental USA and they have already said they are shipping more fully loaded cars first.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
if Tesla can't get more than 100K cars out the door by 2020 then they are finished. I'm not saying it is easy or trivial but there is no way they can survive if they maintain position as a money hemorrhaging builder of high end boutique EVs. The market just isnt big enough.
They might not hit the production numbers EM is claiming but they will have to get to at least 50%. Most people who pre ordered aren't going to wait 4+ years on a car. Totally impractical for most.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
My impressions are that Elon and everyone else at Tesla are well aware of their shortcomings in delivery with the X and S, and realize that they can not make promises anymore without a high degree of confidence they can be achieved. This whole phenomenon with the Model 3 is uncharted territory in automotive history. Obtaining almost half a million reservations for a product not expected to be available for, at best guess, a year is something nobody planned for or expected.
I think Elon and his staff are much more on top of what they can and can't deliver then they were for the Model S or Model X rollouts. This venture is somewhat of a leap of faith for us all. I have confidence that Tesla will live up to expectations.
Dan
I think Elon and his staff are much more on top of what they can and can't deliver then they were for the Model S or Model X rollouts. This venture is somewhat of a leap of faith for us all. I have confidence that Tesla will live up to expectations.
Dan
Dan:
The people in my local Tesla store confirmed your take on things, though, in all fairness, they might not know much more than we do.
Robin
I'm hoping to get one with options like 2-4k above the median of 42k. Let's see how the 2nd part of the unveiling pans out and what the manufacturing schedule looks like.
You'll be invited to configure, but that says nothing about when you are going to get your car. For both the Model S and the Model X they announced about when they were going to start shipping certain lower config cars. You could be first in line to configure, but if you choose one of those configurations you don't get your car until then. They then ask the next set of people to configure until they have the pipeline filled of the configurations they want to build. How long from the first shipments until they are finally building the lowest configured base models is anybody's guess.
Who knows, but I think it much more likely they will ship the higher optioned cars across the country before they move on to the lower configs.
I wonder how much people waiting for the model 3 will distort new cars sales. People generally buy new based on want, not need. The vast majority of new car buyers would not consider the S/X due to price. What happens when a car is desirable and within financial reach, but not available?
Once Musk fully reveals spaceship model 3 I think a lot of younger new car buyers will be further turned off by traditional cars. The many car manufacturers that resisted integrating carplay found out that they lost sales based upon what they hoped was a minor consumer preference by iphone users. I expect the model 3 is going to unleash a magnitude greater level of pain.
Once Musk fully reveals spaceship model 3 I think a lot of younger new car buyers will be further turned off by traditional cars. The many car manufacturers that resisted integrating carplay found out that they lost sales based upon what they hoped was a minor consumer preference by iphone users. I expect the model 3 is going to unleash a magnitude greater level of pain.
John Beans
Member
I predict that Tesla's drive to be an industry leader, their focus on streamlining costs, and their confidence in their future scale will lead to "surprisingly affordable" prices—at least to this enthusiast audience—when they are revealed. This is, after all, a car primarily positioned as "the car for the mainstream" and not a continuation of prior premium positioning and modest production scale. Tesla will set prices like they have a 500K production rate and thus guarantee that they get there, a bit of a virtuous cycle. They will not exploit the early buyers and wait to lower prices when full production rate is achieved; this would predictably lead to ill will. Instead, they will price the same during the campaign to reach 500K. They will understand that as long as consumer interest is rabid, Wall Street will grumble but will forgive short-term impact on margins.
This will lead to a bit of an "options rush," especially as confidence grows in Tesla's ability to be able to time production to exploit the tax break. It will be like when you are in a restaurant and the manager gives you a price break on your meal and you bump up the tip you were planning to give your server; people will get a few more options than they normal would without the tax break.
I expect the second reveal to be pretty inspiring, leading to a "mini-panic" over buying enough options to ensure a good delivery date. I think the big demand will be "Can you tell us exactly which options will speed up or slow down our order?" Despite this, I think the base interior will be of such an appealing nature that most will very satisfied with it, and that "take rates" of any premium interior upgrade will be lower than for BMW's 3 Series luxury upgrade. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one sort of upgrade (random, but luxury strikes me as a valid candidate) lags a bit in terms of production validation or disproportionate "takt time" on the floor and actually might hurt delivery time.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla upgrades the standard conductors and electronics so that performance and Ludo are soft options once you have the correct motors, either base or upgraded (it's what I would do, less complexity and more common scale). Perhaps they'll even do away with having two different rear motors (one base and one performance), and just make "single or dual motor" the only hardware-based performance option. So you'd choose to move to dual motors, and then the performance upgrade(s) would be soft, just like the (surprisingly) recent 5K battery upgrade.
I predict a solid majority of reservations are for cars that will price out < ~ $40K. The nature of the mainstream demand curve.
Finally, I predict that a max perf 3 will be below $60K, but not surpass the P90D in 0-60 times.
This will lead to a bit of an "options rush," especially as confidence grows in Tesla's ability to be able to time production to exploit the tax break. It will be like when you are in a restaurant and the manager gives you a price break on your meal and you bump up the tip you were planning to give your server; people will get a few more options than they normal would without the tax break.
I expect the second reveal to be pretty inspiring, leading to a "mini-panic" over buying enough options to ensure a good delivery date. I think the big demand will be "Can you tell us exactly which options will speed up or slow down our order?" Despite this, I think the base interior will be of such an appealing nature that most will very satisfied with it, and that "take rates" of any premium interior upgrade will be lower than for BMW's 3 Series luxury upgrade. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one sort of upgrade (random, but luxury strikes me as a valid candidate) lags a bit in terms of production validation or disproportionate "takt time" on the floor and actually might hurt delivery time.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla upgrades the standard conductors and electronics so that performance and Ludo are soft options once you have the correct motors, either base or upgraded (it's what I would do, less complexity and more common scale). Perhaps they'll even do away with having two different rear motors (one base and one performance), and just make "single or dual motor" the only hardware-based performance option. So you'd choose to move to dual motors, and then the performance upgrade(s) would be soft, just like the (surprisingly) recent 5K battery upgrade.
I predict a solid majority of reservations are for cars that will price out < ~ $40K. The nature of the mainstream demand curve.
Finally, I predict that a max perf 3 will be below $60K, but not surpass the P90D in 0-60 times.
