PowerWall and "The Missing Piece..." Event

[yobigd20]

I haven't seen it posted anywhere yet, but it looks like existing SolarCity customers are getting this availability first with the following two price options:

- 10 kilowatt-hour system, customers can prepay $5,000 for a nine-year lease , which includes installation, a maintenance agreement, the electrical inverter and control systems

- Customers can also buy the same system outright for $7,140

 

[Matias]

I haven't seen it posted anywhere yet, but it looks like existing SolarCity customers are getting this availability first with the following two price options:

- 10 kilowatt-hour system, customers can prepay $5,000 for a nine-year lease , which includes installation, a maintenance agreement, the electrical inverter and control systems

- Customers can also buy the same system outright for $7,140

So the actual price is double to what is a list price? I guess this changes the whole competitive and ROI situation?

 

[yobigd20]

So the actual price is double to what is a list price? I guess this changes the whole competitive and ROI situation?

source: How many actually are homemade Tesla battery and if all batteries are created equal

Battery «Tesla Powerwall» The answer is really simple: batteries when buying directly from Tesla worth $ 3000 for 7 kWh and $ 3500 for the 10 kWh model respectively. As it was announced in the official announcement.

For the money the client receives:

• itself lithium-ion battery of high capacity;
• built into it the electronic control circuitry of the charge / discharge responsible for the safety and durability of elements, in particular to prevent too deep discharge, overcharge, limiting the maximum allowable charge and discharge currents;
• temperature monitoring system elements and forced liquid cooling in the event of excessive heating;
• waterproof and insulated housing, allowing installation of the street on the outer wall of the house or other construction. This installation and additional components necessary for use in a conventional residential building in the price are not included. In this form it is unusable so to say "ordinary" to end customers, as Output battery only DC high voltage: 350 - 450 Volts. Except for the cases when the previously installed a similar system in which the battery is out of order and need to replace it, or buy an extra battery to increase the total capacity of the system and the level of autonomy.
  
  Another point often raises questions about the prices: prices quoted do not include any government subsidies or incentives. This is the usual commercial price.

System "turnkey" on the basis of Tesla Powerwall Now, about $ 5000 or $ 7140 called elsewhere.
This is not an offer, Tesla, another company - SolarCity Corp. It is known, also affiliated with Elon Musk, but still they are two different companies. For the price, the customer will receive:

• 10 kWh battery Tesla (self-worth $ 3,500 - see. Above);
• The inverter converts the direct current into alternating battery used in most homes (400v DC == & gt; 110 / 220v AC), worth about 1500-2000 $;
• professional installation and configuration;
• auxiliary materials used in the installation (power cables, cable channels, etc.);
• a contract for the subsequent maintenance of the resulting grid specialists. The difference between $ 5000 and $ 7140 - a lease of 9 years in the first case (the owner of all the equipment thus remains SolarCity ) or just buy full ownership of the customer.
  
  Start the installation of such systems is expected this fall.
  
  About $ 13,000 - it was just a rumor that circulated on the market before the official announcement. No evidence of the said amount was not. In the same sources cited other data about the people who received these batteries at its disposal within the framework of a kind of "beta test" before the official announcement and the start of sales on special terms:
  $ 1500 + for just $ 15 / month for a lease for 10 years. Total $ 3,300 for the entire period.
  
  It was proposed by the other energy companies cooperating with Tesla: Pacific Gas & Electric, and it included the cost of subsidies for the end customer by the company at a rate of 50%. And there was mentioned the total price of $ 13,000 taken from the rumors, and articles like readers here at GT, as well as foreign sources naturally wondered: how full the cost of $ 13,000 and a subsidy of 50% could get 1500 + 1800 = 3300 $?
  The answer is: no, $ 13,000 is just a rumor, but the real value of such a complete system installation and maintenance of approximately $ 7,000. After a 50% subsidy and accounting residual value after 10 years (since the client received it is not the property of, and long-term lease) and receives $ 3300 that was supposed to pay the client.

Not all batteries are created equal One more thing for the cost, which most do not pay special attention. Presented 10 kWh and 7 kWh batteries are not only the capacity and price, but also acceptable modes:
10 kWh battery is positioned as «Backup»: a kind of analogue of obschedomovogo UPS in the event of frequent power cuts, the number of cycles she corresponds to the usual parameters of lithium-ion batteries. Accurate data Tesla does not, but presumably it is 500-1000 cycles to fall below 80% capacity of the nominal value - is typical values ​​for modern lithium-ion cells in the charge / discharge currents in small

While 7 kWh battery is robust "workhorse" that can withstand the huge number of cycles and is designed to be active in alternative energy. For example, in tandem with solar panels or wind generators, or in the absence of its own generators for charging circuit every night at the lowest possible tariff and use of energy from the battery all the rest of the day. Terms and conditions 10 year warranty on it, include the possibility of permanent daily cycles, ie, involve up to 3500 cycles covered by the warranty. Estimated average life service on domestic experiments Tesla while still substantially more likely - or just splurge on the company replaced a large number of batteries under warranty.

The essential difference in the unit cost of batteries is due precisely these differences:
3500/10 = 350 $ / kWh
3000/7 = 428 $ / kWh

It is not clear due to what is achieved by the difference of the resource. Theoretically, there are 2 main options:

1. batteries used in lithium-ion cell types, even at the stage of design and production are optimized in one case at the maximum possible capacity, and the other to the maximum number of cycles at the expense of the container;
2. cells They use the same, but inside 7 kWh model total capacity of cells is actually significantly higher than the stated capacity (eg about 9 kWh), and their charge-discharge artificially limited built-in electronics to operating "window" of 7 kWh. For lithium-ion batteries, this method can dramatically reduce the wear and tear of the charge / discharge cycles. So if one of the readers will use the cost of these batteries in their calculations (a sudden or even thinking to buy?), This difference is taken into account.
   
   Source: geektimes.ru/post/249942/

batteries when buying directly from Tesla worth $ 3000 for 7 kWh and $ 3500 for the 10 kWh model respectively.

"overall price will be higher due to installation, control software and inverter costs"

"It's not a standalone (product)," Bass said. "You won't get the battery backup from us unless you're a solar customer.

"http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/05/05/technobubble-wanna-go-grid-tesla-battery-solarcity-hawaii/26895129/
SolarCity Taking Orders for Tesla Batteries Starting at $5,000 - Bloomberg Business
Musk’s SolarCity First in Line for Tesla Batteries - Bloomberg Business

so those are solarcity's marked up prices I guess which include inverter and install.

 

[dhanson865]

So the actual price is double to what is a list price? I guess this changes the whole competitive and ROI situation?

See ybigd20s response above and then add:

Solar City won't be the only reseller of the Tesla battery. Other companies might sell it with less markup if you don't want to buy it from Solar City.

 

[InTheShadows]

The way I see it if my speculation from the output specs is correct is that I will be able to go to an existing solar customer and for $3000 for the 7kwh pack, plus $300 shipping (may be less if they deliver them to service centers.) a $150 permit, $500 for labor. ~$4200 cost, plus project overhead and company overhead and profit should put them between $5000 and $5500 out the door.

 

[Dave EV]

Here's the stats from our Enphase failure rate.

Installed Units,Failed,ratio
1231,106,11.61

It's likely worse than that because some of the monitoring units have failed and customers don't want to plunk down 350 to replace them. Also Enphase will not replace inverters that are not hooked up to their monitoring system.

How many of those are M190s vs M215s or M250s? The newer inverters are immensely better than the M190s in the reliability department and there appeared to be some batches of M190s with excessive failure rates.

The Enphase storage product will be out around the same time as the PowerWall. It will be interesting to see how their pricing compares.

 

[InTheShadows]

How many of those are M190s vs M215s or M250s? The newer inverters are immensely better than the M190s in the reliability department and there appeared to be some batches of M190s with excessive failure rates.

The Enphase storage product will be out around the same time as the PowerWall. It will be interesting to see how their pricing compares.

None are 250's. Some are 215, many 190's and d-380's. Even at only 1 failed 215 the failure rate is higher than their advertised rates.

Regardless Enphase is costing our company 10's of thousands of $ because of these warranty calls. They pay $150 per repair which usually cost $600-$800 to complete (2 trips x2 crew).

 

[Dave EV]

None are 250's. Some are 215, many 190's and d-380's. Even at only 1 failed 215 the failure rate is higher than their advertised rates.

How are you calculating MTBF? With only one failed 215 and hundreds installed, I expect the MTBF to be quite good. See the link that dhanson865 posted earlier for the best data based analysis of Enphase failure rates I've seen. No, the failure rates for the M190 (and the D380 at least from anecdotal evidence) is not good. FWIW, I have 18 M190s that are over 5 years old - zero failures.

My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Enphase field MTBF: M190: ~50 Years M215: ~925 Years and the spreadsheet at Enphase Microinverter and Envoy Field MTBF Estimate - Google Sheets

Regardless Enphase is costing our company 10's of thousands of $ because of these warranty calls. They pay $150 per repair which usually cost $600-$800 to complete (2 trips x2 crew).

That sucks. I guess the only thing you can do is to try to group repairs together. Luckily on most installs, the loss of a single inverter does not represent a significant portion of the output. I mean, if it costs you $700 to replace an inverter, even at $0.25 / kWh with a typical 225W panel in California is only going to generate around 400 kWh / year worth about $100. You're probably better off paying the customer for lost production while waiting for more failures to occur.

Back on topic.

SDG&E is making noise about new TOU rate schedules which would make battery storage more useful, with even winter rates appearing to have high peak rates from 5pm-8pm after the sun has gone down. Summer peak rates would still be from 11am-6pm, but that still gives you a few hours of sun in the morning to store energy for the peak.