Potential Impact of VW Diesel Cheating on EV Sales in the U.S. And Europe

[Cobos]

Oslo is probably getting within a year Diesel-free zones on the worst polution days, which happens to be winter. And I agree this is not a defeat device, but the emissions are wildly above what is claimed by MB. So my suggestions are either that driving on days with below 10C is not allowed, or that when you buy the car and more than 50% of days are below 10C you pay the car taxes as if the car emitted 40x it's testet amount. That seems only fair...

Cobos

 

[Gerardf]

I am not so sure if I agree MB is not cheating.

But they probably do brake the law, I very much doubt that the law specifically says a car should polute a certain amount at 22 degrees. It might state it is tested at 22 degrees, but that does not mean you can pollute as much as you want any higher or lower temperature. It is never exactly 22 degrees celsius.

I also doubt the law states one can switch to higher pollution levels to protect the engine. To assume that is ok and not mention you pollute as much as 40x more at an other temperature that is in normal realistic temperature range is, in my book, cheating. However, IANAL.

Update:
After thinking this case over a bit more, I actually am of the opinion it is cheating. They have build in a device that they need to be active to pass the tests. Under a condition that is outside of the scope of the test they ACTIVELY switch off that device, thus changing the vehicle.

That the device is not always switched off, or only when actively a test is detected, does not change anything. Below 10degree celsius it is another car then the one that passed the test, as a result of actively switching some anti pollution measures off.

 

[adiggs]

Yes, then laws will be updated an applied to new cars. There are currently millions of cars on the road that do not comply with the current emission guidelines, because they were build before those regulations were passed. Maybe we should sue Tesla because their battery swap program was just a ZEV credit grab and the potential cars that could swap was never close to reality.

You may be reading more into my comment than I intended. In fact, I agree with the sentiment, in this specific instance, that suing MB for the choice they've made and built into cars isn't appropriate. That's based on what I know about this situation, which comes from that one article.

My point, which I'm unsure of your stance on, is that this is the sort of headline grabbing information that leads to new regulations or clarifications. Whether it should be made retroactive or not, if the follow-through that I see coming happens, then MB has some pretty serious engineering ahead of it. Or other tradeoffs.

It's also the sort of information that I can see leading to crowded cities deciding this is another reason to ban diesel burning vehicles of any kind (or at least light passenger vehicles) from city centers, for health and air quality reasons. That's an action that would apply to all existing vehicles as well as new ones, and reduce the utility of those existing vehicles.


For manufacturers of diesel burning vehicles, the world wasn't rosy, but it was better when it looked like everybody else was ok - it was just VW violating the letter and spirit of the law. Even if MB didn't violate the spirit of the law, and thus shouldn't be prosecuted, they do appear to have been violating the spirit of the law (reduce emissions, improving air quality, and reducing health risks / expense / angst for everybody). One is an accident - two starts to look like a pattern.

 

[SebastianR]

I hope all these discussions really lead to "non-Diesel" zones in more and more cities. At some point it will be irrelevant if cars' emissions control systems are "technically" working correct or cheating but it should be come blatantly obvious that non of these Euro 6 (or whatever) norms help you in winter (or otherwise unfavourable weather conditions).

I suspect more and more cities will just say: No Diesel.

And I feel people haven't really realised this yet: if you buy a car now that's supposed to last for 10-15 years, I doubt that a Diesel is the decent choice: what good is a car if you are not allowed to use it?

 

[Spidy]

I don't see this happening without a announcement far into the future otherwise you will alienate millions of voters.

 

[SebastianR]

I don't see this happening without a announcement far into the future otherwise you will alienate millions of voters.

I think right now Germans can't fathom it yet. However, I'm convinced this may go quicker than we all think: I believe that more and more cities will do this in "self-defence". We have seen it in Rome this very year. We will see it in Oslo. We may even see it in Stuttgart in not too long. I suspect this will not be a "all or nothing" approach at first and limited to a number of days / year first.

But I really don't see a choice here: If Matthias Wissmann (the chief German car lobbyist) is telling everyone yesterday that with a Euro 6 Diesel all emission issues are fine and we find out a day later that emission control is simply switched off (which is perfectly legal and still in compliance with Euro 6) when it gets cold enough, I don't think there is a way to fix this within "the system". Then look at the "newer and tighter" EU emissions testing rules that passed just now and were - in the last moment - watered down significantly at the behest of the car industry - this is a train-wreck in the making. What happened is that the car lobby effectively invalidated and nullified all emissions standards and the only way out is to completely forbid diesel cars in certain places/weather conditions.

It is also not a new thing per se: Some 30 years ago Germany saw quite a bit of smog related driving restrictions. I just think that what happened now is, that the watered down legislation spoiled the party for everyone (even the "true Euro 6 compliant" cars like some of the BWM diesel that seem to be within Euro 6 limits even in the cold).

 

[jgs]

I don't see this happening without a announcement far into the future otherwise you will alienate millions of voters.

How many voters drive diesels? A lot (in Europe).

How many voters breathe air? Even more.

If the latter group can be convinced of the importance of the issue, well...

- - - Updated - - -

I do have to say, the quote "Observers of this quickly developing scandal are increasingly being sensitized for sophistry" is a bit rich, considering the author of the Forbes article. (Hint: Autopilot a fraud? The linked author bets Elon he'll eat a hat if it changes lanes!!)

 

[Cobos]

It seems the city council due to several days with smog levels above critical levels are implementing diesel free county roads. So the highways which are state owned are exempt but the county roads, as in all the roads off the highways and ringways will close for diesel cars on days with high pollution levels. It seems on those days all the public parking in the inner city will also be shut down. Does this limit the usefullness of a diesel car around Oslo, you betcha.
They are wisely exempting public transportation, emergency vehicles, business vehicles with documented need to drive in the inner city etc.
I'm guessing if this actually improves the air inside Oslo, they will keep using this method until some time in the nearish future diesel cars are forbidden within Oslo city limits all year long. My guess, within 10 years.

Cobos

 

[SebastianR]

It seems the city council due to several days with smog levels above critical levels are implementing diesel free county roads. So the highways which are state owned are exempt but the county roads, as in all the roads off the highways and ringways will close for diesel cars on days with high pollution levels. It seems on those days all the public parking in the inner city will also be shut down. Does this limit the usefullness of a diesel car around Oslo, you betcha.
They are wisely exempting public transportation, emergency vehicles, business vehicles with documented need to drive in the inner city etc.
I'm guessing if this actually improves the air inside Oslo, they will keep using this method until some time in the nearish future diesel cars are forbidden within Oslo city limits all year long. My guess, within 10 years.

I see exactly this pattern emerge in more and more places. City councils will take action. Also, I don't think there will be a big announcement "hey people, your Diesel will be forbidden!" or so - I think the use of Diesel cars will just gradually restricted bit by bit. So I'm not even certain people would openly rebellion against this but silently just accept it. Still my point remains: I don't think in 5 years a Diesel car will be nearly as useful as it was last year. 10 years sounds like a long time, but many cars live 10-15 years so I see that affect used-car prices in the not too distant future. Point being: even if it is "announced long in advance" it may affect used car prices of cars being bought today.

 

[electracity]

Simply the concern of future restrictions on diesel will direct car purchase decisions away from diesel.

 

[replicant]

VW 'Dieselgate' software developed at Audi in 1999: report

German carmaker Audi created so-called defeat devices which cut emissions in 1999, years before parent company Volkswagen used them to cheat diesel emissions tests, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Tuesday.

VW, Europe's largest automaker, admitted in September it had manipulated the engines of around 11 million diesel cars, including its VW, Audi, Porsche, Skoda and Seat brands.

Engineers at Audi developed software capable of turning off certain engine functions in 1999, but it was never used by the VW luxury division, the newspaper said in an advance release of an article due to be published on Wednesday, which cited industry and company sources.

Six years later, when VW engineers at the firm's Wolfsburg headquarters were unable to bring nitrogen oxide emissions below legal thresholds, they started to install the software developed by Audi, Handelsblatt said.

 

[replicant]

Mitsubishi Motors admits falsifying fuel economy tests - BBC News

Mitsubishi Motors has admitted falsifying fuel economy data for more than 600,000 vehicles sold in Japan.

Tyre pressure figures were falsified by employees to flatter mileage rates, the company said.

Almost 470,000 vehicles that Mitsubishi made for Nissan were affected and the issue was uncovered after Nissan found inconsistencies.

 

[replicant]

Fiat Chrysler drops on report of potential sales ban

Shares of Fiat Chrysler fell nearly 4 percent Monday following reports from a German newspaper that the automaker could be banned from selling cars in Germany if evidence of disregarding emissions rules is found.

The German Federal Motor Transport Authority found that the carmaker may have manipulated emissions controls in some Fiat models, German newspaperBild am Sonntag reported in its Sunday edition. Bild also reported that the KBA could threaten the company with a sales ban if the company disregarded emissions rules.

Fiat Chrysler declined to comment on the report.

 

[neroden]

Good grief. It's all of them, isn't it.

I think the various suggestions of "zero emissions only" zones, where *only* electric cars are allowed, are probably going to get serious traction. City councils will argue that they simply can't trust the emissions levels of anything else, gasoline or diesel.

 

[replicant]

Good grief. It's all of them, isn't it.

I think the various suggestions of "zero emissions only" zones, where *only* electric cars are allowed, are probably going to get serious traction. City councils will argue that they simply can't trust the emissions levels of anything else, gasoline or diesel.

I just come back from 2 weeks of road trip in Cuba. The streets of the island are full of EVA 1000 electric scooters. Coming back home was quite a revelation as I realized my neighborhood is just backward. Rich Parisians with 5,000 € salaries keep riding scooters that pollute their hometown with toxic smokes and deafening noise while embargoed Cubans with less than 20 € of monthly revenues have already switched to electric bikes.

The City of Light has chosen to ban diesel cars by 2020. I'll probably have fled the capital and its deadly pollution by then.

 

[neroden]

I just come back from 2 weeks of road trip in Cuba. The streets of the island are full of EVA 1000 electric scooters. Coming back home was quite a revelation as I realized my neighborhood is just backward. Rich Parisians with 5,000 € salaries keep riding scooters that pollute their hometown with toxic smokes and deafening noise while embargoed Cubans with less than 20 € of monthly revenues have already switched to electric bikes.

Agreed. At this point I can't imagine why anyone would have a non-electric scooter. Motorbike for road trips, maybe, if you're cheap and don't want to pay for a Zero, but scooters? The electric ones are cheap enough, much cheaper after considering the cost of gas, and they are much nicer.

 

[SebastianR]

The City of Light has chosen to ban diesel cars by 2020. I'll probably have fled the capital and its deadly pollution by then.

Has the Diesel ban already been formalized? Can you point me to some online source where that's explained? There is disbelief in many forums that major cities would ban all Diesel cars and I would like to point people to that decision. Thanks!

 

[replicant]

Has the Diesel ban already been formalized? Can you point me to some online source where that's explained? There is disbelief in many forums that major cities would ban all Diesel cars and I would like to point people to that decision. Thanks!

The ban isn"t formalized yet and the approved plan (PDF) doesn't mention diesel cars specifically, but the mayor has made the promise many times:

I want to eradicate diesel in Paris by 2020, I will not give up that objective

Here's a good summary of the situation: How Paris is stepping up its drive against the car - BBC News

 

[Gerardf]

Also in The Netherlands we see some trending towards banning Diesels in cities. It starts with old diesels.

Utrecht, Rotterdam vow to continue ban on old diesels - NL Times
Court: Utrecht allowed to ban old polluting cars from city center - NL Times

As you can see in the second link it is also enforced with a real-time check to the license plate of your car. The fine will also be produced in Real-time.

Note that although these are some of the larger Dutch cities, they are small to international standards (few 100k citizens). The level of pollution can not at all be compared to the problems some of the real big cities have. There is even doubt about the effects, and it was still enforced.

 

[Gerasimental]

This seems very unfair on the poor working classes. The wealthy and professional middle classes probably mostly don't drive old diesels, and those that do can probably not afford easily to simply upgrade to a newer, cleaner car. How will this be dealt with?