Poke a hole in my strategy... POLL

[Canuck]

I know that 8.0 is around the corner but where did you see that AP 2.0 will be released by your delivery date?

Right, while it seems to be right around the corner, no one knows except Tesla and they run a pretty tight ship. I think it's safe to say it will be out before the Model 3 but that's late 2017 at the earliest. Hopefully, we find out more tomorrow...

Elon Musk says details on Tesla's Autopilot improvements coming Sunday

 

[RogerHScott]

I know this is summons and not AP, but it does go to show the limitations of the current hardware:

To be fair, also the limitations of having NO DRIVER IN THE CAR AT ALL.

 

[RogerHScott]

waiting for [my MX] until Feb 14 ht because .... and also I want to ... get 2017.

Tesla doesn't really have model years like other manufactures do, so I'm not sure what significance you're ascribing to "a 2017".
Keep in mind that the Model S "refresh" occurred in the middle of this year, so my (pre-refresh) 2016 is a noticeably different car
than other, more recent (post-refresh) 2016s. Which is "a 2016"?

 

[Canuck]

To be fair, also the limitations of having NO DRIVER IN THE CAR AT ALL.

To be fair, the accident involving the fatality would not have involved a fatality if there was no driver in the car. It's not vehicle damage that concerns me about hardware limitations, which was the point of posting that picture.

Tesla doesn't really have model years like other manufactures do, so I'm not sure what significance you're ascribing to "a 2017".

Yes they do. Each VIN has the vehicle's model year at digit 10:

VIN Decoder | TeslaTap

What is different with Tesla is, for example, if it says E for 2014 you still need to find out if it was before of after AP was added in 2014, since Tesla doesn't wait for a new year to make changes.

 

[number12]

I'm in a the extreme version of OP's situation. Musk is announcing the next AP tomorrow at 11am and likely commenting on AP2 and retrofit. I'm picking up 9am Monday! So if Musk tells us that my car won't be upgradable to AP2 which is coming this year, I will likely cancel my order. I assume this means I will lose on my $2,500 deposit?

Yes.. Vs what? Flipping deposit to new car… no

 

[RogerHScott]

Yes they do.

Read all the words: "Tesla doesn't really have model years like other manufactures do" [emphasis added]
Obviously every car is built in some year or other. My point is that virtually every other manufacturer makes significant
model changes each year and only once per year, where as Tesla makes their changes gradually over time and gives no
particular significance to what month it is.

 

[Canuck]

Yes.. Vs what? Flipping deposit to new car… no

I could be wrong but I think I remember reading here when the D was announced, and people hadn't taken delivery of their cars, some people posted that they cancelled and re-ordered for the D, and Tesla did apply the deposit to the new order. Contractually they don't have to, but if it's a major change, like new AP2.0 hardware, I wouldn't give up on trying.

 

[theslimshadyist]

Ok, so what about from a depreciation perspective? If you look at historical market values of other autos using NADA, etc. they typically release previous year values yearly in October. So for example, in another month they will release values on 2016 vehicles because the 2017's have already arrived. If you buy a 2017 vehicle in late 2016 there are no established book values until October of 2017.

There's really no solid data or established values between this time period, it's merely just a crap shoot until the next values are released. Does that make sense?

This would be why I would think that if one was considering taking delivery on a 2016 MS in December, they should just wait another month or 2 to get a 2017. Theoretically, the year of depreciation wouldn't start to apply. When I think of a 2016 vehicle in Jan 1, I and financial institutions would consider it a year old already.

 

[Canuck]

Read all the words: "Tesla doesn't really have model years like other manufactures do" [emphasis added]
Obviously every car is built in some year or other. My point is that virtually every other manufacturer makes significant model changes each year and only once per year, where as Tesla makes their changes gradually over time and gives no particular significance to what month it is.

Yes, but the poster was waiting for a 2017. When he goes to sell the car, it will be listed as a 2017. All other things being equal, it's better to have a 2017 than a 2016, which is one the reasons he was waiting and you replied by telling him:

Tesla doesn't really have model years like other manufactures do, so I'm not sure what significance you're ascribing to "a 2017".

I explained the significance.

 

[whitex]

All other things being equal, it's better to have a 2017 than a 2016

Registration fees are always higher for newer cars, insurance is typically higher, so all other things are not equal. Also, better for whom or for what?

 

[number12]

Registration fees are always higher for newer cars, insurance is typically higher, so all other things are not equal. Also, better for whom or for what?

Better for resale value and better for have latest hardware (especially in teslas case). Usually ICE cars you get a discount around this time for picking 16 vs 17 but not in teslas case.

 

[RogerHScott]

Better for ... hav[ing] latest hardware (especially in teslas case).

But it's not; that's my point. With Tesla, especially, there's no correlation between model year and hardware content. The MSs
produced the last week of 2015 are identical to those produced the first week of 2016. I'll admit that you might be able to pull the
wool over the eyes of some clueless buyer and get them to pay more for a different digit on a piece of paper, but no informed
Tesla buyer will fall for that.

 

[number12]

But it's not; that's my point. With Tesla, especially, there's no correlation between model year and hardware content. The MSs
produced the last week of 2015 are identical to those produced the first week of 2016. I'll admit that you might be able to pull the
wool over the eyes of some clueless buyer and get them to pay more for a different digit on a piece of paper, but no informed
Tesla buyer will fall for that.

What about CarMax? What about private party?

If general public will pay more for year number then it's worth more. That's the market. I didn't say it was better in any way. But you get more than a month appreciation from dec 15 vs Jan 16. Even if it is just physiological. Look at tesla for sale forum. Some listings only mention year and not month.

 

[jzhan]

The current AP, with no camera/radar at eye level, can drive you under a semi-trailer during a momentary lapse of attention. I can't trust a system that only "sees" a few feet off the ground. I know I'm not suppose to trust it, and to pay attention at all times, but the peace of mind that is lost with the lack of another camera/radar at eye level is significant to me. For this reason, AP2.0 for me is not an incremental change but a huge change. I had an AP loaner for a week and I did a lot of highway driving with it, but I just couldn't get my mind past the fact that there's nothing looking out for me at eye level or higher. So I couldn't relax and let myself enjoy it. It really depends on the individual as to whether 2.0 is incremental or significant, and one's ability to put trust in the current capabilities of the hardware. The accident involving the fatality spoke volumes to me. The new hardware will not allow for that type of accident, regardless of the driver's inattentiveness.

I know this is summons and not AP, but it does go to show the limitations of the current hardware:

View attachment 193957

What makes you think that AP2.0 will be able to handle that kind of problem?
First of all, the current AP can "see" above eye level; however, it ignores what it sees to reduce false positive. Do you want the car to do an emergency break at every overhead road sign? I don't think so. The same will likely apply to AP2.0. AP will always ignore certain things that it sees to reduce false positive.
The only reason you aren't relaxed and enjoying it is that your expectation of the system is different from the intended use of system. The same will apply to AP2.0 as well. AP2.0's functionality will not be a leap. It will indeed only be an incremental change. If you don't trust the current AP, there is no sign yet that the improvements on AP2.0 will have you any more at ease. AP will only be an advanced cruise control for a long time to come. AP is a redundancy for you in case you miss anything, not the other way around.

 

[Canuck]

What makes you think that AP2.0 will be able to handle that kind of problem?

One word: "redundancy".

There's no issue that for greater levels of autonomy, more hardware is needed including faster processing power. You can nitpick the details, but Tesla is very short on hardware and processing power.

AP is a redundancy for you in case you miss anything, not the other way around.

That's the problem with it for me. There is no redundancy except me. I know redundancy is not needed except for full autonomy. But hearing Musk talk about redundancy says a lot.

Please don't misunderstand me, Tesla's AP1.0 is great - the best out there. I really wish I had it. But after driving with it for a week to and from my cabin, and using it a lot, I couldn't relax and I'd prefer just to drive the car myself, or at least that's what I tell myself. Maybe because it was shortly after the fatality, and it's probably just me, although I have read here that there are a few others here who are like me, except that their vehicles have it and they don't use. I also think it just may be cognitive dissonance that made me not really like it. Then again,I don't like to fly. I do fly because I know my fear of flying is irrational and I am far more likely to be killed driving to the airport then in an air plane accident. Yet I'm still absolutely comfortable driving to the airport, but I have fear when flying. I had a trade-in lined up to get AP, which is one reason I had the loaner to try it out. But when it came down to pulling the trigger, I really like my large frunk, 80 amp car, and I couldn't justify letting it go just for AP1.0, especially since I am really looking forward to keeping it, and adding a smaller, fully loaded Model 3, with AP2.0. I'm hoping with AP2.0 I will be able to relax more. Yes, I will have to keep my hands on the wheel at all times, and be alert at every moment, because we know every does that now, right?

Who really cares what I think anyway? AP1.0 is great -- enjoy it and don't worry about it. I'm probably just trying to rationalize away the fact that I missed out on it by a few months, and it works for me...