Order now or delay till later? opinions please

[monkeydad]

Situation- I got my email to configure Model 3 today. it says delivery expected in 4 weeks. The problem is, I don't really need another car right now, but I will need one in about 2 years. I can afford to buy the car with minimal financial pain, but my wife would be happier if I didn't.

Considerations-
1) I'm worried about the tax credit. As I understand it, the federal tax credit made it through the proposed upcoming tax bill so the $7500 federal credit should still be available, but I've heard that Teslas may not qualify for this after they've sold 300,000 vehicles? If this is the case, I should purchase the Model 3 as soon as I can so that I can qualify for the credit. $7500 is a major percentage for a $50,000 car.
2) by being the early adopter, I'll be paying the early adopter penalty. I have a 2012 Model S and as such don't have many features that came standard later on. ie parking sensors, folding mirrors, and autopilot. I'm not sure what's coming up by way of new features for the model 3, but I'd hate to have the same "missing out" experience I had with the Model S. I don't really want all wheel drive, but a performance model would be worth considering. Don't get me wrong, I love my early model S, but I'd love it even more if I had all the other stuff too.

Thanks for all your thoughtful responses in advance!

 

[ElecFan]

It's 200,000 vehicles sold, which Tesla will probably get in Q1 or Q2. So you'll have the full tax credit at max until the end of Q3. Two years from now you'll have a state of the art M3 and all the options you want. Also you might get a battery with a longer range. Battery technique is developing quickly.

Here's another thread with a comparable OP. How long can I keep my spot in line?

 

[Derek Kessler]

0) You don't need another car? Okay, sell one. And have a discussion with your spouse to be sure she understands the benefits and is okay with the purchase. No car is worth damaging your relationship.

1) The tax credit starts to phase out after the first 200,000 cars are sold per manufacturer. If you delay past 2018 it likely will have fully phased out for Tesla.

3) That's always a risk with a Tesla. There's always something new around the corner, so if you're always delaying got whatever is new then you'll never buy. I expect it'll be a while before there are any substantial changes for the 3 — Tesla has a bunch of cars to build!

 

[Jason S]

If not considering the possible EV tax rebate situation since the latest bill isn't final yet then it is just a matter of the 2 years situation.

I don't think 2 years is a 'holding a spot in line' situation but instead a 'get my refund now and decide in 2 years' situation. All the projections say the backlog will be completed and you might even have a choice of mini-SuV or a truck too.

 

[Mika]

Regarding the tax credit, it will begin to phase out for tesla after they sell 200k in the US, which is fast approaching. I haven't followed this subject as closely as some, but I expect the credit will begin phasing out after Q1 of 2018. If you wait 2 years, it will definitely be gone.

As far as the early adopter stuff, I feel you, and I think it's inevitable that a Model 3 in a few years will be superior to a first production version. But no matter when you buy in, that's always going to happen. I too have an early Model S, and I'm selling it when I get my 3. It's still a great car, but I can get basically all the stuff I love about it, plus more range, AP, a smaller footprint and a much lower cost of ownership by doing the trade.

 

[Tiger]

If you really don't need the car, no tax incentive will make up for the depreciation that occurs once you take the car out of the wraps However, like Derek suggested, if you have some other non-Tesla cars laying around, sell some. Personally I wouldn't recommend holding more cars than you can drive simultaneously

 

[davidc18]

delay until you need/want it.

 

[drivefast]

I also received the invitation, but i delayed, because i didnt want to buy a $50k car. I need the lil' one as a commuter, so larger battery or premium stuff doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I even had to find an intermediate solution while waiting. I estimate in my situation that i will be in the first batch of the base trim, and i conservatively estimate that to happen sometime in April, maybe even March. If Tesla screws up the production line, the delay will not majorly affect the total number of deliveries. But basically, i bet on the fact that i will still catch the fed rebate. Looks close.

So, can you safely delay? Yes. *Should* you delay? As your hear tells you.