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Off topic ramblings from the VIN thread

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And I'm pretty sure Tesla was counting on that being the case.

To what end? I think they simply accurately described in detail exactly what happened, which in fact left little open to misinterpretation:

In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week.
 
To what end? I think they simply accurately described in detail exactly what happened, which in fact left little open to misinterpretation:
Investor and potential buyer confidence. Otherwise they would have simply left it at the 793. The rest of the statement contains zero concrete information and is left open to interpretation. We've been over this again. I regret bringing it up, but I know that you understand exactly what their statement means and what it doesn't mean. My point is that the general public is not quite as sophisticated in interpreting words like "extrapolate" and what it means and doesn't mean. And Tesla very much used that fact to its advantage to put their best foot forward while reporting quarterly deliveries.
 
Doubling production in 10 months is hard. Cope.
They have no choice. They have already told their investors that they would. They are going to have to double their production over and over in the next months.

Hard? Difficult? aren't the opposite of success, but the engine that drives the success train. All you need are people who love that. I live in Chicago and I remember when Michael Jordan was once interviewed and was asked..."How do you feel about the tremendous competition you are going to face in the championship"? to which he answered...."I live for it....if it were easy...I would be bored....I love it". Some people thrive in competition and difficulty and situations that are hard.


Tesla did it with model S and X. They also have production execs on their team that have done it on super large scales when they worked for other companies such as GM and AUDI etc.

Garlanism --> Difficulty doesn't challenge a leader....it reveals a leader.
 
We can probably infer something from the VIN assignments we have seen. The Model 3 Invites spreadsheet shows VINs up to around 4700 have been assigned. I've seen a few anecdotal reports of VINs in the 53xx range as well. Understanding that we don't have perfect data, if there were some high VINs assigned (or delivered) you'd expect at least a few percent of those assignments to be reported here or in the spreadsheet. But those appear to be the top VINs we've heard about.

This pretty much puts a maximum number of the number of cars produced so far (or will be produced shortly) at around 5300. If you count the 1772 delivered + 860 in transit at the end of the year (2632 total), then that puts an upper limit of around 2668 made in the first 3 weeks of January (plus or minus). And that is a best case as it assumes that the VIN 5300 that was assigned is already built and just awaiting shipment/detailing. Yeah, we could be missing a reports of hundreds of VINs above 5300 being assigned, but the likelihood of that seems low. And if the VINs are being randomized so there really are even less than 5300 cars in the queue to date, well that only lowers the estimate of how many cars built so far in the current year.

Maybe my logic is faulty, but that's what it looks like to me. Does this make sense?
Surely tesla employees are allowed to go on holidays. That would affect numbers as well but your point is solid. If we see/hear about vins in 6xxx range next week, we can almost safely continue to assume this theory is correct.
 
Your inability to understand common words is not Tesla's fault. Read and understand each word in Tesla's statements before accusing them of something.
I didn't use the word misleading or lying if you were to have read my post all the way through. ( talking about mis understanding ) .

The word misleading is from this post. Highest production VIN in the wild

I was just asking a question to which you didn't answer. There is a difference between an answer and a response.
 
I don't mind hundreds behind.....but thousands?

VIN # 3000 or so was reported back in November right?......Its the latter part of January and they are still handing out 3K's? Oh well....
But they are also giving out VINS in the 5300's. So like I said, they are sprinkling in VINS as old as in the 3ks along with the latest VINS we've seen.

That's why even if they make 1k a week, you won't see VINS +1000 every week. They still have old ones that never went any where.
 
They have no choice. They have already told their investors that they would. They are going to have to double their production over and over in the next months.

Hard? Difficult? aren't the opposite of success, but the engine that drives the success train. All you need are people who love that. I live in Chicago and I remember when Michael Jordan was once interviewed and was asked..."How do you feel about the tremendous competition you are going to face in the championship"? to which he answered...."I live for it....if it were easy...I would be bored....I love it". Some people thrive in competition and difficulty and situations that are hard.


Tesla did it with model S and X. They also have production execs on their team that have done it on super large scales when they worked for other companies such as GM and AUDI etc.

Garlanism --> Difficulty doesn't challenge a leader....it reveals a leader.

Lol, your comparing a basketball player to Elon Musk? Tesla wouldn't be anything without Musk. You should learn the history more.

The difference between Tesla and GM and Audi is that neither of those companies have done anything new and innovated in decades. Bolt is a great example where they can't make more then 2k per month. Audi can't even learn from VW not to cheat on emissions. There is some leadership!

You must first look at the problem to understand the job Elon has done. This company has grown 100x in cars delivered from 2008-2017. What a crappy leader. The reason so many people short the stock is because it is supposed to be impossible to start a new car company, Which had not happened successfully in many, many decades. This crappy leader has led the model S to dominate the large luxury sedan market in the US with more sales then S class, 7 series, Audi A8 and Porsche panamera combined.

This crappy leader is single handedly forcing more then $100B in Investments from those German companies who had zero intentions of doing so just a couple of years ago.

You call the model 3 late, but forget to mention that Tesla pulled mass production forward 18 months, including the gigafactory. Most companies take 6 years to bring a totally new platform online, which they rarely do because the crap they put out every year has only minor changes from the crap they put out in prior years. Without the gigafactory, there are no batteries for the model 3, they don't exist without it.

Back to your nonsensical argument that Tesla's former Audi and GM employees comment. Those companies are not building highly automated manufacturing lines that run at much higher speeds then the traditional lines. No one has done it. This is a requirement for Tesla that needs to grow at 10x every few years to compete. Anything else would be utter failure.

Elon isn't just a great leader, he is a force of nature.

If your upset that your model 3 is not ready yet, you should cancel your reservation and wait 18 months until it's a showroom. If you think Elon is a crappy leader you should short the stock.

Edit: you should be happy to know Elon will be the leader for 10 more years and won't make anything if the company doesn't deliver.
 
Tesla wasn't doing a stock offering in the weeks after Q4 so I can't imagine they are really concerned with the short term effect an "implied" or misinterpreted "1k/wk rate" may or may not produce.
Then you tell me why they felt the need to add the whole "extrapolated" comment. Why not just leave it at 793 units produced during the last week of the year?
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: WarpedOne
You must first look at the problem to understand the job Elon has done. This company has grown 100x in cars delivered from 2008-2017. What a crappy leader. The reason so many people short the stock is because it is supposed to be impossible to start a new car company, Which had not happened successfully in many, many decades. This crappy leader has led the model S to dominate the large luxury sedan market in the US with more sales then S class, 7 series, Audi A8 and Porsche panamera combined.

I think you may exaggerate a little the lack of innovation from Germans, as well as perhaps give Elon a bit too much credit for actual leadership skills... but IMO the following is indisputable:

Tesla, together with Elon's vision and, yes, force of nature nature, single-handedly transformed the automotive industry from ICE to BEV, all in the space of a decade. No matter what you think of individual failings, or ethics, or policies, or comms, or whatever Tesla we like to dabble with on a Sunday evening, this change will always be Tesla's BIG achievement. Nothing can diminish that. Not even the company failing could diminish that anymore, though I don't believe there is any risk of that (Model 3 will obviously succeed). They did big and the world will be different for centuries to come because of that.

This deserves to be said, IMO.
 
Lol, your comparing a basketball player to Elon Musk? Tesla wouldn't be anything without Musk. You should learn the history more.

What a crappy leader.

This crappy leader is single handedly forcing more then $100B in Investments from those German companies who had zero intentions of doing so just a couple of years ago.

You call the model 3 late

Back to your nonsensical argument


If your upset that your model 3 is not ready yet,

Edit: you should be happy to know Elon will be the leader for 10 more years and won't make anything if the company doesn't deliver.

First of all......your personal attacks against me are just over the top.....however there is nothing I can do about them. I've learned that. That's how this works. I can be berated but there can be no scrutiny of Tesla. Got it.

"A basketball player"? that can buy Tesla? Yes I'm comparing a $100B valued individual to Elon.

What in the world are you talking about? Why are you interjecting so many comments I've never made and why are they about me?
Elon called the Model 3 late. Not me.

I'm not upset because my model 3 is late. Everyone's model 3 is late. ....Every first production model of the S, X and 3 was late. that's why Tesla pushed out the estimator on their website every time.


Lastly......your personal attacks against me are just over the top.....however there is nothing I can do about them. I've learned that. That's how this works. I can be berated but there can be no scrutiny of Tesla. Got it.

I can't believe Bonnie is getting the flux in the forum as well. She has to be one of the nicest people here.

This is just too much.
 
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First of all......your personal attacks against me are just over the top.....however there is nothing I can do about them. I've learned that. That's how this works. I can be berated but there can be no scrutiny of Tesla. Got it.

"A basketball player"? that can buy Tesla? Yes I'm comparing a $100B valued individual to Elon.

What in the world are you talking about? Why are you interjecting so many comments I've never made and why are they about me?
Elon called the Model 3 late. Not me.

I'm not upset because my model 3 is late. Everyone's model 3 is late. ....Every first production model of the S, X and 3 was late. that's why Tesla pushed out the estimator on their website every time.


Lastly......your personal attacks against me are just over the top.....however there is nothing I can do about them. I've learned that. That's how this works. I can be berated but there can be no scrutiny of Tesla. Got it.

I can't believe Bonnie is getting the flux in the forum as well. She has to be one of the nicest people here.

This is just too much.

What personal attack..hahah.. Calling your argument nonsense is not a personal attack, its a fact.

I dont know this Bonnie and have no clue what you are talking about.

Since when is Michael Jordan worth $100B? Off by a whole order of magnitude (Michael Jordan: Net Worth | Investopedia) You put MJ up as a leader, when what he did best was to take over games by himself and win them. He was an amazing athlete. Elon on the other hand, cannot take over the car making game. He must inspire tens of thousands of people to work harder then they ever had and listen to people like you spout off about how bad of a leader they are.

For Elon, delivering the model 3 several years ago would have been late... that is who he is. He starts with Physics and says if possible that the atoms can move together that fast, so its the target date. If you planed your life on Elon time, you would be in big trouble. I highly suggest you stop over personalizing differences of opinion and learn to adjust for Elon time. You will be a much happier person.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: kengchang
mods, can we rename this thread to “pointless back and forth on production numbers” please.
It’s obvious we’re never getting it back to highest vins in the wild.
Some folk just seem to like finding new ways to say the same old thing, over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.............
Oh hang on, /me hits mute
 
Instead of driving around, head to the nearest bar at shift change and buy some beers chat and with a few of the line workers, I'm sure 3 beers is greater than an NDA. Imagine what you can hear direct from a line worker. VINs, line speed. Steady speed or pulses on the line. Parts hold ups. AWD, turnover, etc.

You have a hilariously delusional view of a few beers being worth more than someone's job... which they will lose if they share that kind of information when keeping it internal is a requirement of their job.

If twenty million factory workers during WW2 could keep their mouths shut for four years out of concerns of German spies in the USA trying to get information on US production numbers then the chance that Tesla factory workers earning good money are going to spill the beans because you chummed it up buying them a cold one are pretty low.