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If the nuclear risk is irrational and "very very low" Why aren't the nuclear power plants required to carry liability insurance, as any other busines is, to protect against such an accident? Currently as I am told there is no redress or coverage should such an accident occur, no matter how unlikely. Other than the Japanese government, who is taking care of the Fukushima victims? Tepco is unable......
 
Nuclear is subject to a very strong NIMBY syndrome. I think most people are fine with using power from it as long as the plant is not built near where they live and the waste is not disposed near where they live.

I agree with Robert, the risk in percentage is low, but if anything goes wrong the effects can be far reaching and last a long time, which is why people have so much fear.

I just read this recent article about the US policy for nuclear. It's not that the US is anti-nuclear, it's that it's not profitable to run a nuclear plant in the face of cheap natural gas prices, higher efficiency, and the smart grid lowering peak demand. The only way to make nuclear economic to run is a carbon price or cap and trade program.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...ants-essential-to-our-carbon-reduction-goals/
 
If the nuclear risk is irrational and "very very low" Why aren't the nuclear power plants required to carry liability insurance, as any other busines is, to protect against such an accident?
They are required to carry insurance, just not enough to cover everything in case a very serious accident happens. That's not the real problem, as that's the case with most insurance (you just pay everything beyond the coverage). The main complaint is that the companies running the reactors are indemnified from anything above the required coverage (and government pays the rest).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price–Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act

The problem with nuclear is there are few to no insurance companies is large enough to completely cover a serious accident and it's a huge disincentive for developers if they have to shoulder the liability beyond the coverage (might make nuclear completely un-viable).
 
Economically, nuclear power is dead. Current plants will and should continue to operate but the cost to build a new nuclear plant is prohibitive. Current projections are for ~$0.07/kWh IF the plant has an average capacity factor of ~90%. That is very unlikely to happen as solar becomes more prevalent. Yes, solar is intermittent but with demand response technologies, improved batteries and the potential for V2G this problem will be mostly mitigated by the time it becomes an issue. I don't know of any areas in the US that have cracked 50% peak daytime solar supply so we have years before storage is required. We should soon start to see "smart" inverters with reactive power control enabling them to help stabilize the grid in addition to providing power.

It takes a utility to build a nuclear power plant and there is currently no economic incentive to do so. It only takes a business or a family to add to our solar PV capacity, there is plenty of economic incentive... and it grows everyday.

I currently work in the nuclear power industry. I once thought it was the future, but I'm a slave to the facts and the facts no longer support that. Solar IS / WILL BE the cheapest source of energy. We need to focus on taking full advantage of that.

"Solar is growing so fast it is going to overtake everything" - Jon Wellinghoff (Former Chairman of FERC)
 
The risk of rendering areas of land uninhabitable for centuries is ZERO, not small, ZERO
The risk of rendering large areas of land uninhabitable for even a decade is tiny.
The current Fukushima exclusion zone is the result of histeria. Of people unaware that if they smoke in the same room as their children they are doing them an order of magnitude more harm than if they returned to the closest home to Fukushima possible. In the exclusion zone, radiation levels are MUCH lower than you would get in Denver, smoking parents don't want their children outside for hours, instead they require them to stay inside, exposed to much nastier chemical from their cigarettes.
Chernobyl dumped 5% of it's core reactor material on the environment, because the reactor had no secondary containment.
20 years later, life is fully back.
Chernobyl is the worst case scenario. I would make the case it WILL never happen again. Not a one in a million chance, but it won't happen again.
Now I don't recommend building a nuclear reactor on top of an active fault line that is near a large population center (capable of 7.5 of higher earthquakes), regardless of the fact that reactors are proven to be able to survive extreme earthquakes. Fukushima didn't happen due to the earthquake, it happened due to the tsunami that flooded all three emergency generators, preventing the plant from having emergency pumping to dissipate decay heat. State of the art (not future) reactors eliminate that risk by being able to go for DAYS without emergency cooling, and if they are left without any cooling after a few days, then they only require a tiny 15HP water pump to replenish a water tank. It could as well be handled by a fire truck coming in for an hour every 3 days (cause their pumps are far more powerful than that).
Like I said, the real problem is we fixate on all the sensationalism, and don't to the unpleasant work of studying why 90% of that is 100% wrong. And the other 10% is at least an exaggeration.
I believe we have the obligation so that if we accept the sensationalism, we must also hear the experts debunk the sensational. That's why I studied this stuff for hundreds of hours to be confident on what I'm saying.
Mercury and lead pollution are millions of times more of a safety concern even to Tokyo than nuclear materials from Fukushima poisoning their water supplies or fish they eat. Yet, the looney tunes anti nuclear "experts" said radiation would travel from Fukushima to Alaska, Hawaii and the west coast and be a danger.

If we are really concerned about nuclear safety, than replace the oldest reactors with ANY new reactor available from Westinghouse, GE, Hitachi, Areva, Bechtel, AECL (I don't recommend anything from Russia). BTW, I'm not a fan of any of those corporations. They are NOT investing on the new extremely safe nuclear, ZERO. IFR reactors are just a little safer than light water reactors.

The problem with revolutionary reactors is they are actually much cheaper to operate and cheaper to build.

Why would GE or Westinghouse build reactors where they won't be able to lock in their customers with long running Uranium fuel contracts ? Thorium is essentially free. It's a "problem" material that rare earth mining needs an use for, so they can startup rare earth mining on areas that have lots of Thorium. And liquid fuel reactors require no nuclear fuel fabrication, Thorium fuels require no enrichment either (it's 100% Th-232). We need tons of Neodymium to build wind turbines, that's heavy rare earths we can't find in North, South or Central America without dealing with Thorium too.

Yeah, I lived in the US for 7 years. I can count in my fingers the USA states I haven't been to. But it's exactly the states that are anti-nuclear that need it the most, where the largest population centers are. And some of the states that are "indifferent" to nuclear are actually pro fossil fuels, not like you are going to see TX getting a dozen nuclear reactors to displace their beloved natural gas and oil.

The tea party war on government in my opinion is a desperate act of big oil and big coal to slow down migration away from fossil fuels as possible.
They know that Electric Cars will kill petroleum.
They know Thorium LFTR would kill all coal and natural gas in a few decades, and with EVs, kill 90% of petrol usage too.
They know that if Solar Cells and li-ion batteries drop another 80%, we could produce 100% of our electricity from Solar cells and store it in chemical batteries (but would need huge north-south transmission lines, it would have to be in places down south.
But I believe li-ion batteries will be far more important for EVs.
All electric batteries in the world are unable to store even 10 minutes of our electricity production.

Tesla was a fluke. It's not everyday we see someone with the talents, money, drive and ecological responsibility that Elon Musk has. Some have money and time, but don't have the engineering skills to be chief designer and CEO. Others have the time and the skills but no money (and nobody willing to give them the money).
 
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Let me give you some personal information. I don't fear nuclear power plants, like an irrational emotion. I am convinced that there is a good and sound list of economical, technical, and scientific reasons to phase out existing nuclear plants and stop building more with the same technology (PWR, BWR, Fast Breeders, CANDU like and so on).

So I think there is a LOT wrong with what you write.

To the point of risk management: You state that there is no radiation hazard because power plants will likely never fail in a catastrophic way, and if though, that radiation is not hazardous. But we have science based radiation limits and the government put in place regulations to avoid any higher exposure. You cannot expect people to be comfortable with the risk of higher exposure. And a low risk multiplied with a high damage is not tolerable to me.
No existing insurance company could cover the sum of nuclear operation. If a capital fund would be filled over the course of 10 years, to cover 100% of potiential damage, a nuclear plant fleet would run at 4 Euros per kWh. Check the German BEE study (BEE: association of renewable energy producers).

The primary coolant loop and the emergency cooling systems of Fukushima Unit 1 were knocked out by the earthquake. Tepco finally had to concede this fact after trying to hide it as long as possible. Check the report of the Japanese government instead of repeating Tepco's FUD.

Any fission reactor produces ~5% of nominal thermal output after being SCRAMmed from radioactive decay of fission byproducts. That is an immense cooling requirement, and it takes several days to abate. I don't know a current reactor tech that doesn't fall in this class. Please give an example.

On the subject of biased government: My government acts on behalf of the people. If people don't want nuclear, why should the government legislate other?

I concur that renewable power generation must be paired with storage which is expensive ATM (like in tripling the kWh prices). The economic solution is to overbuild renewable generation capacity and throttle it down, should a surplus occur.

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You want to go nuclear. I want to go solar. I have a roof.
 
Fukushima Daichi are among the oldest nuclear designs still in operation in the developed world. It's like trying to attack the safety features of a B737-100 or a B747-100 (50 year old designs) as a reason to shutdown all airlines, flying state of the art B777, B787, A380

Japanese cultural hierachy problems are their problem. It's a cultural issue they should work on. They need more personal initiative/free will thinking even in the work place.

AP1000 stands for advanced passive plant.
It has primary and secondary circulation pumps for normal operation.
However once shutdown, circulation requirements are much less and can be met just by clever usage of gravity, natural circulation and compressed gas.
As I understand it, the reactor is capable of coping with water getting right to the edge of vaporization, and that is enough to create circulation to move the heat to dissipation areas.

Professionals that don't want to openly chasticize old nuclear designs just say that reactors like the AP1000 are what should have been done 40 years ago. As in, they already are outdated designs, but they are more than safe enough versus even natural gas eletricity (and all accidents related to natural gas exploration, distribution and thermal plants).

Please watch this video.
Andrew Dodson - Load Following Thorium MSR @ TEAC5 - YouTube
Technical reasons why we can't have more than 10% of our electricity from unstable sources like Solar and Wind. The unsaid part is this applies without a major redesign of the rest of the grid. Biomass and Geothermal is great, but seriously limited. Hydro is mostly tapped out. It only leaves Nuclear.

You are 100% correct that government must not push nuclear power down the people's throat. But they should also point out that without nuclear there is no solution to climate change. NONE. The problem is when government is unwilling to tell their people the bad news, because they will loose the next election if they do so. The biggest problem with democracy isn't the politicians, is the people's attitude towards inconvenient news.

All of the world's batteries in the world are barely enough to store 10 minutes worth of worldwide electricity production. If we increased li-ion production 200% (and used all the increase for solar/wind storage), it would take us 20 years to solve the problem (disregarding continuously climbing worldwide electricity demand). We need that extra li-ion production to go towards EV to end our oil dependency. Actually we will need 1000% more li-ion production for EV production alone.

Now I'm starting to understand why the nuclear folks tell me the German problem will fail even with one trillion euro. Still unsure, but starting to understand. No it's not because of what you are saying, it's this presentation that shows the oscilations solar and wind produce on the grid are too extreme to compensate by simply overproducing electricity. My dad is a retired electrical engineer that worked the first half of his career on power generation, transmission and high power industry consumers of electricity, he confirms the presentation's statement that too much electricity is just as bad as too little.

Your are welcome and encouraged by me to put solar in your roof. I'm not telling you not to. I'm just telling you your expectations are unrealistic of that being a complete solution to climate change. If you install an energy storage system that is able to keep at least 3 hours worth of your electricity production and prioritizes selling a steady flow of electricity into the grid, for instance 60 or 70% of your peak generation, such that when clouds or rain change your production, you're feeding in the same rate, and most people did that, then you have a solution, because you have converted solar from unreliable into a reliable/predictable source. It's just that the energy storage solution will about triple your solar panel costs.

But large scale wind turbines don't fare the same, their production is huge, and oscillates far more violently than solar. When a turbine goes from 35Km/h to 45Km/h winds, it's production doubles ! From 20 Km/h to 45Km/h, it increases ten fold. The arguments that all those turbines together make up one for the other might add up on and hour per hour basis, but they don't make up for second by second oscillations that create voltage variations in the grid. Considering all pumped hydro, load following hydro, load following natural gas/coal, this all works pretty well until solar+wind gets around 1/3 of your electricity production, then things start to break down, and gets progressively worse, and all hell breaks loose at 50% solar+wind. Good luck.
 
The risk of rendering areas of land uninhabitable for centuries is ZERO, not small, ZERO
The risk of rendering large areas of land uninhabitable for even a decade is tiny.
The latter is enough to mean huge insurance costs and potential liability. If something like that happens, you would have to pay for relocation, medical, and other damage costs for a fairly large population of people and currently only the federal government is large enough to do that without going bankrupt. There would be no need for a government indemnity if that was not the case. And for the record, I don't disagree with the indemnity, I think nuclear still serves a hugely useful role. But I do want to say it's a huge negative point for a lot of people.

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My dad is a retired electrical engineer that worked the first half of his career on power generation, transmission and high power industry consumers of electricity, he confirms the presentation's statement that too much electricity is just as bad as too little.
That's certainly true if you don't throttle your generation (as is the case in Germany), but if you do throttle, then overcapacity doesn't matter.

The idea is rather than have storage, just make it so your minimum capacity approaches baseload (or above), then throttle the rest of the time (and use fossil fuels for the rest, but a lot less obviously).
 
Please read the response to this article (in the comment section):
Germany Hits 59% Renewable Peak, Grid Does Not Explode Breaking Energy - Energy industry news, analysis, and commentary
Don't bother, here it is:
Its one thing to say the grid did not "explode". However that is a strawman argument.


It is another thing to talk with the grid operators and learn from their perspective. What did it take to keep intermittent power running at that level for the few hours the sun was shining sufficiently provide that level of electricity to the grid. It would also be instructive to talk to the grid operators about how they managed to not shed generation assets as well as load during those large transients. What were their backup plans in case generation dropped suddenly as generation systems powered by weather are wont to do.


That would be a much better article. It would also be more useful for this discussion then trying to claim that just because of a possible one day success in Germany, by extrapolation, the US grid can run on a large amount of solar and wind.


These are that questions from professionals such as myself that still need to be answered. Such as how much was power generation was in backup ready to take over but running inefficiently at low fuel consumption rates? Such as how much power was shoved onto other neighboring countries?


Windmills Overload East Europe’s Grid Risking Blackout: Energy - Bloomberg


What were the power swings in Germany since those power transients can have detrimental effects on grid infrastructure? Those articles are the ones that need to be written not cheerleading articles about a one day success story. This is a 24/7/365 marathon not a several hour sprint at noon on a sunny day.


Also, the wholesale rates dropping that low are a concern on two fronts. First it really doesn't matter how low the rates go if the individual consumer doesn't benefit those price drops. Secondly those price drops mean T&D infrastructure will suffer in the long term. 10-15 years from now the German T&D infrastructure will need upgrades just to do standard wear and tear from use and weather related issues. However since the traditional German utilities can't bank reserves now due to the massive change in power generation financing and the wind and solar power generators are not required to pay for transmission right-of-ways, the German consumer will more then likely be asked, again, to dig into their pockets to pay for routine T&D maintenance based on some formula dreamed up by the German government in power at that time. Not a system we should have here in the US.
 
Actually I read about both of these events before you posted the links. The second one illustrates my point. Germany only has problems because they have a law prohibiting throttling of renewables. If they had no such law (as in every other country in the world) they would not have the surge problems even without energy storage.

He said Germany could solve the problem by allowing its grid operators to turn off renewable sources at times of excess production, which is not currently possible under German law.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/czech-germany-grid-idUSL5N0D43LA20130417

Right now the only thing they are doing is installing transmission lines to the south and dumping the rest to neighbors in the north.

As for the first one, even ignoring that it's in the comments section (which gives much less legitimacy) it only asks more questions while not providing any new information.
 
Please read the response to this article (in the comment section):
Germany Hits 59% Renewable Peak, Grid Does Not Explode Breaking Energy - Energy industry news, analysis, and commentary
Don't bother, here it is:

Not sure if the fair use provision also covers comments to articles or not, but it makes me uneasy when I see something this size cut and pasted from another site. Perhaps the poster should consider just quoting 1 or 2 paragraphs from the comment?
 
The French and the Netherlanders are happy to use Germany's daytime surplus. Sometimes at night, the surplus of french nuclear plants is exported to Germany because there are disadvantages in ramping them down.

Agora Energiewende (a German renewables think tank) has near online power data. The last two days, Germany was a full time exporter. Utilities refuse to ramp down coal, they say they have to fulfill long term supply contracts that were closed before renewable generation could be taken into account. Basically the German grid is clogged up with too much power and a disastrous price war between conventional and renewable generation.
chart.png

Aktuelle Stromdaten - Agora Energiewende
 
I don't dispute that Germany's PV power has a market and that it can be integrated; my only point was that it can be integrated with relatively little disruption because Germany is a part of a much larger market for electricity, and because it's strongly interconnected to countries with flexible resources. If Germany were an island with little/no connections (e.g. Ireland), the integration task would be far more challenging.

Put another way: the fact that Germany has achieved XX% solar doesn't provide sufficient evidence that the EU as a whole can integrate XX% solar. It might be able to, but that's a matter for careful study.
 
Actually I read about both of these events before you posted the links. The second one illustrates my point. Germany only has problems because they have a law prohibiting throttling of renewables. If they had no such law (as in every other country in the world) they would not have the surge problems even without energy storage.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/czech-germany-grid-idUSL5N0D43LA20130417

Right now the only thing they are doing is installing transmission lines to the south and dumping the rest to neighbors in the north.

As for the first one, even ignoring that it's in the comments section (which gives much less legitimacy) it only asks more questions while not providing any new information.

The law is that renewables have priority. Renewables are only economical because they have huge subsidies + priority over the rest + the grid must buy 100% of what they produce. That's the conundrum that leads me to state the only non fossil source that could power 100% of the world today is nuclear.
 
Yes, Germany hit 59% on one particular day this past summer, but they've been hitting high numbers above 40% for at least three years now so let's not pretend this a "one day" kind of thing. When the feed-in tariff started in Germany, traditional utilities were barking that the grid could only handle maybe 5-10% intermittent solar without exploding and that clearly hasn't happened. As for the details of how the grid managers have pulled this off.....who cares? The fact that they ARE pulling it off without any major problems is what counts.

Germany is a snapshot of where the rest of the world will be in 10-20 years. Last summer we started getting the first glimpses of German peak mid-day wholesale prices being lower than overnight prices, which essentially turns the traditional utility model on it's head and destroys their financials. Now we're starting to see traditional utilities pushing coal plants even on days when solar is very strong and causing over-capacity at mid-day. They literally must do this to remain even slightly profitable.

If the southwest USA initiated anything remotely like the FiT from Germany, I bet they'd quickly go to over-capacity at mid-day in certain regions. Then you see people start using large scale battery systems, then quickly move to something like on-site hydrogen production in folks garages. German electricity is like $.28/W and they pay something like $.16/W for power you push to the grid. Do the math. Pretty soon half the solar will be off-grid. Why would you sell low and buy so high when you can just take it off the roof and store it locally?

It's gonna be wild and it's gonna happen real fast.

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Renewables are only economical because they have huge subsidies + priority over the rest + the grid must buy 100% of what they produce. That's the conundrum that leads me to state the only non fossil source that could power 100% of the world today is nuclear.
Well that is nowhere near the case. 100%? Unlikely any time soon, but Germans don't need any subsidy to make solar the cheapest local option, they're installing solar at $2/W(USD).

They passed grid parity on subsidy-free solar a while ago.