-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
New thread if you want to breakdown individual areas of the business:
Tesla financial projections for individual startups
Tesla financial projections for individual startups
Predictions for the next few quarters seem to have quite a bit of uncertainty. This post is going to consider production capacity potential and will be followed by a second post addressing cell production (and IRA impacts on US pricing).
Production Capacity
I have not seen any discussion of the recent MIC production figures. Rob Maurer covers these consistently and for November reported a total of 90,802 which was divided into 58,471 Y and 32,331 Model 3. There are a number of positives to take from these figures:
Production Capacity
I have not seen any discussion of the recent MIC production figures. Rob Maurer covers these consistently and for November reported a total of 90,802 which was divided into 58,471 Y and 32,331 Model 3. There are a number of positives to take from these figures:
- Overall it represents a return to the sort of figures seen before the major refresh of the Model 3 and the smaller updates to the Model Y. This volume increase relative to recent months should improve margins in two ways:
- volume efficiencies
- cost efficiencies as the refresh is supposed to reduce COGS
- The Model 3 figure represents an average of around 7500 vehicles per week which is noticeably higher than before the refresh. Similar levels were only seen in 2 months towards the end of 2022. This is good news in itself BUT it will be interesting to see if this production level pushes higher over the next few months as there have been some statements that seemed to point towards post refresh production capacity for the Model 3 being higher than before (40% higher ?).
Other than the use of castings it is not clear how production efficiencies have been made for the 3+. My feeling is that when Fremont moves to producing the 3+ it is unlikely that production volumes will increase significantly as there appear to be other constraints limiting Fremont production (both the 3 and Y lines in Fremont have lower production than their equivalents in China) - The Model Y figure represents an average of around 13,600 vehicles per week. Once again this is at the upper end of what has been seen prior to the refresh (same level as the highest previous figures - March 23). I have not seen any statements which included expectations for higher Model Y production after this mini refresh but if Model 3 levels do increase it would be a little strange if Model Y did not unless the 3+ has significant changes from a manufacturing perspective that we are not aware of.
If there are any improvements to Model Y production capacity in China I would expect these to also be seen when Berlin and Austin move to producing the refreshed Y.
Following on from my previous post...
IRA and cell constraints
I believe it was @petit_bateau who commented some months ago that they felt Tesla was cell constrained for production expansion in Austin and Berlin. Together with worries about the general state of the economy it seems that there has not been any push to go beyond Y production on a single line in Berlin and Austin. For the US the picture has now been further complicated by the likely reduction in IRA subsidies that the entry level models using LFP cells will see from January and the consequent impact on the pricing due to higher end models getting a higher subsidy and hence potentially being cheaper than lower level models. Quite a headache for the US team to handle at this short notice.
Without fully understanding what the new guidelines are it is difficult to know how Tesla will respond in the short term - perhaps some models will be withdrawn in the US with production of those models going to Canada instead (I believe Canada is currently supplied by China for vehicles with LFP cells. Perhaps someone from Canada can help me out here). However it seems likely that the medium term fix will be to use 4680 V2 cells produced in the US to power entry level Model Y produced in Austin, as was done in the past to utilise 4680 V1 cells from Kato Road.
If this is the case then the ramp of 4680 V2 is going to be central to the production of Model Y in the US along with the ramp of Cybertruck and Semi.
My understanding is that 4680 V2 cells are currently in production in Austin, that Kato Road V1 production was shut down in November (for 3 months) for the line to be upgraded to V2 production, and that V2 production is also planned for Giga Nevada. The original date for the latter was Q3 this year but I am guessing it has slipped as I have not heard it is online (and the GF extension that was spoken about earlier this year for both 4680 and Semi production does not seem to have happened yet). If this status is incorrect please let me know.
4680 production in Berlin appears to have been moved back in the timeline in order to prioritise production in the US and I guess that this is a factor in not moving forward with production on the second model Y line in Berlin.
IRA and cell constraints
I believe it was @petit_bateau who commented some months ago that they felt Tesla was cell constrained for production expansion in Austin and Berlin. Together with worries about the general state of the economy it seems that there has not been any push to go beyond Y production on a single line in Berlin and Austin. For the US the picture has now been further complicated by the likely reduction in IRA subsidies that the entry level models using LFP cells will see from January and the consequent impact on the pricing due to higher end models getting a higher subsidy and hence potentially being cheaper than lower level models. Quite a headache for the US team to handle at this short notice.
Without fully understanding what the new guidelines are it is difficult to know how Tesla will respond in the short term - perhaps some models will be withdrawn in the US with production of those models going to Canada instead (I believe Canada is currently supplied by China for vehicles with LFP cells. Perhaps someone from Canada can help me out here). However it seems likely that the medium term fix will be to use 4680 V2 cells produced in the US to power entry level Model Y produced in Austin, as was done in the past to utilise 4680 V1 cells from Kato Road.
If this is the case then the ramp of 4680 V2 is going to be central to the production of Model Y in the US along with the ramp of Cybertruck and Semi.
My understanding is that 4680 V2 cells are currently in production in Austin, that Kato Road V1 production was shut down in November (for 3 months) for the line to be upgraded to V2 production, and that V2 production is also planned for Giga Nevada. The original date for the latter was Q3 this year but I am guessing it has slipped as I have not heard it is online (and the GF extension that was spoken about earlier this year for both 4680 and Semi production does not seem to have happened yet). If this status is incorrect please let me know.
4680 production in Berlin appears to have been moved back in the timeline in order to prioritise production in the US and I guess that this is a factor in not moving forward with production on the second model Y line in Berlin.
Following on from my 2 previous posts:
It seems like the first part of 2024 production will be heavily dependent on GF China whilst 4680 production is brought on line to facilitate production elsewhere. If China continues with (or exceeds) the high production levels seen in November this approach should not pose any problems. Hopefully a good 4680 ramp and improved economic conditions will lead to Model Y production ramps in both Berlin and Austin later in 2024.
It is probably wise to heed Elon's comments about a slow Cybertruck ramp. Let's hope the S and X return to around 20k vehicles per quarter.
It seems like the first part of 2024 production will be heavily dependent on GF China whilst 4680 production is brought on line to facilitate production elsewhere. If China continues with (or exceeds) the high production levels seen in November this approach should not pose any problems. Hopefully a good 4680 ramp and improved economic conditions will lead to Model Y production ramps in both Berlin and Austin later in 2024.
It is probably wise to heed Elon's comments about a slow Cybertruck ramp. Let's hope the S and X return to around 20k vehicles per quarter.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I missed Rob's podcast with November production, do you know which one it was? I saw a different guy who had the same total but 55k Ys and 36k 3s. Rob's numbers make more sense, though they still show an unusual build in Model 3 inventory.
Panasonic slid 4680 series production to the first half of FY25, so April-September 2024. I don't know if Tesla plans to make 4680s there. People keep saying Semi will use 4680, but I have to think customer feedback will drive them toward LFP.
The podcast with the November figures is titled 'Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates...' from 4 days ago. I agree that Rob's 3/Y split makes more sense than the % split given earlier by @Piloly on X.
Thanks for the info re Panasonic 4680s.
Apparently all 4680s are going to the Cybertruck and Austin Y's are only 2170 now. I forget if that was stated in one of the Munro interviews or information from Joe Tegtmeyer's drone videos, but either way it is not great news. There is also supposedly a significant effort to improve the humidity levels (0.2% RH?) for product consistency, but I am not sure if that is a constraining factor right now.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Rob's numbers are right. The production by model numbers are reported at DaaS-Auto (汽车产量_汽车产量数据_中国年产量数据-达示数据), but usually later than what people post on X, typically comes out this time of the monthThe podcast with the November figures is titled 'Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates...' from 4 days ago. I agree that Rob's 3/Y split makes more sense than the % split given earlier by @Piloly on X.
Thanks for the info re Panasonic 4680s.
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
Hope we dont see any further Model Y lines added, and instead just see faster or full utilization on existing lines (eg bringing Austin & Berlin lines up to full speed).
The compact/$25k car is now less than 10 quarters away from a likely start of delivery (2026 at the latest, maybe mid/late 2025) - and once that happens it will cannibalize Y & 3 demand to some degree and any new lines added now would be redundant, unless they were to replace existing lines with a vastly more efficient unboxed style line. Maybe one exception would be a pilot unboxed style 4680 model 3 line for europe to avoid tariffs, but that might simply be a variation on the $25k model anyway.
I reckon Austin compact line is more likely in 4-6 quarters.
Any reason for your optimism? Based on the Munro video yesterday it seems like most of the last section of the original building is pretty full, and that the overall structure is nearing full utilization. The south extension seems marginal for a complete new production line, and stamping and casting have limited excess capacity.
Giga Mexico was projected to be running in about a year from ground breaking, that means 4 quarters to stand up the Gen 3 line in a new factory. Austin should go faster.
They have been moving in the Gen 3 equipment for months already. It is not (fully?) dependent on the south extension (probably for volume due to stamping limitations). Giga Austin has multiple levels and the Cybertruck only takes up part of the upper floors. There were a lot of blacked out areas beyond the Cybertruck lines at the delivery event...
It seems that the current Y line at Berlin is running reasonably close to capacity with the current shift pattern. Tesla posted about reaching 5k/week but I have not seen a 6k/week post. What they also stated was that they were aiming for cost efficiency and reducing some contract staff they had used during the ramp. It seems that they are loathe to go to a 24/7 shift pattern because that would be expensive in terms of higher shift costs and they might well lose staff that would not want to work shift patterns they see as more disruptive.
Increasing Y production at Berlin by activating a second line is necessary to satisfy the European Y demand. It has the following benefits:
- eliminates shipping costs and import duties on the Ys currently imported from China, thus improving margins
- allows Tesla to meet increasing demand for the Y in Europe
- allows Tesla to meet increasing Y demand (by redirecting those vehicles that would have gone to Europe) in China and APAC in general
The introduction of the Model Y did not lead to any significant cannibalizing of Model 3 sales, and it would be surprising if the same were not true when the compact/next gen platform is released. The TAM for the next gen platform is so large that if it is a compelling vehicle at the $25k target price it is likely demand will exceed production capacity for quite some time.
Pretty sure Giga Texas has more “unused“ capacity than you think. Elon is reviewing gen3 production line plans weekly now. Gen3 will be built first in Texas. Texas seems to have excess Giga press capacity (or will soon). 1Q25 is my guess for reasonable gen3 volume, maybe even 4Q24 start.
And then everything Mongo just said.
The Accountant
Active Member
Ron Baron in a CNBC interview in November mentioned that the $25k car would be selling in "a year to a year and a half". I don't believe that Ron has inside information but he has enough information to make a credible estimate. I think we see a reveal of the Gen3 car in Q3 2024 and production in late Q1 2025 or early Q2 2025. But I would not be surprised to see a shorter timeline. There may be some skunkworks accelerating this.
See the 7:00 mark of this video:
Last edited:
Berlin is running at about 53% of stated 375k annual capacity - assumes about 50k/quarter which I believe is slightly above what @Troy has calculated, but not by much. They've done ~35-48k/quarter this year, but very minimal growth since Q2. Troy is even forecasting a QoQ decline this quarter per his latest publicly available forecast on Twitter.
5k/week would be 65k/quarter, a figure they've never come close to. They might have hit 5k/week for one week but they haven't sustained that production, not close to it.
Factory has been up and running for 20 months. Eventual annual output is supposed to be 500k but they aren't close to that.
I agree 100%. That’s what I’m currently thinking too. The gen3 car reveal will blindside everyone since i predict that the reveal will be coincident with a price reveal and fairly quick production start, unlike what Tesla has done to date which is a vehicle looks reveal followed by real pricing and availability three years or more later. The reason Tesla will change this past pattern is two fold. One, they don’t want to Osborne Model 3 sales since it is currently the cost leader, and gen3 will of course be the new cost leader. Second, there is nothing to get excited about gen3 other than the price. It will be a smaller Model 3, ho hum. The price is the compelling feature, so that has to be part of the reveal, and they can’t price it unless they are close to production.
When gen3 is revealed, and if production is imminent at that point, the stock should shoot up. Baron is calling for 5M gen3 cars alone, which is certainly possible. Of course Tesla will need more factories, but we’ll have Mexico on its way by then as well as a a few other factory location announcements. We should also start to hear supply chain rumors for gen3 throughout 2024.
X Fan
Active Member
Reveal aside, will Tesla have the service/support infrastructure in place to support a Gen 3 high volume vehicle in 18 months?
I don't think so and that is my concern about the low end product expansion.
