petit_bateau
Active Member
I have come at this from various directions;Fwiw, for FY23 @Troy is at ~1.836m deliveries, TSLA IR compiled average is 1.849m, Gary Black is at 1.9m, and WS average (per Bloomberg, as of two days ago) is 1.85m. Will be interesting to see how much those change after the EC today. Is WS 23% low?
Not sure how likely we are to see 2/Z and/or Van vehicles at all in FY2024. The last couple of iterations - Semi & CT - have taken 3-4 years (or longer) from product unveil to first deliveries. The only one that went quickly was MY, but that was mostly because of how many components it shares with the Model 3, I think.
You asked about CT ramping in your previous post - I think this is a big variable. It's a new method of manufacturing so we don't really have a historical basis from Tesla to use. It could go quickly or there could be a lot of initial bugs that slow things down. I would say this ramp is going to be very hard to predict for that reason.
Barring updated guidance from the Tesla team, I think it's just a lot of shots in the dark right now -> perhaps we'll hear more about their plans later today or on March 1st and get a clearer picture.
- if I take Tesla at their word of 20m/yr by 2030, and assume they have a plan, what must that plan look like so as to be plausible (e.g. don't leave it all to the last year);
- how does that compare with Tesla's historical performance and proven capabilities;
- how does that compare with overall global needs, looking from a macro level;
- how does that compare with individual client needs, looking from a micro level;
- how does that compare with previous transitions;
- is that resulting forecast internally consistent and non-contradictory ?
Various versions of that come out something like this table below. A key issue is that if Tesla does not hit >50% relative growth rates (i.e. % terms) in the 2023 and 2024 years, then they will need to hit even less realistic absolute growth rates (in absolute # terms) that will exceed 3m/yr in later years. When one thinks of the supply chain implications of that (for example why would a press manufacturer build a press manufacturing line that can handle a peak of 6m/y for just one year) it seems unrealistic. There is also the matter of what happens in the 2030-2040 period and how energy needs to run alongside this in a phased-yet-sequential manner. It is after going round all the constraints in such a manner that I come out with tables such as this.
Hence my concern at what is showing in the data as we head through the next 24-months. Some of this is Covid, but some of this is also 4680, and some of course is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But nonetheless I do wonder about it.