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  1. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    True but those cars look similar yet different. Also I don't think they are built on the same line. Whereas Elon loves to simplify and have minimal variation between builds. Guess we'll have to just wait and see.
  2. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A great night to be a TSLA shareholder. It's been a long time since an earnings call went this well imo. My only small worry is that these new lower-cost models might have the same exterior appearance as Model 3 and Y. Otherwise how will they build them on the same assembly line? Problem...
  3. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hate to be a pessimist, but could be that those are going down in sympathy with TSLA.
  4. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any folks with legal background have knowledge on how long these cases can take? Would be nice to know what are Elon's next performance metrics.
  5. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I remember when I bought $TWTR at $45 before Elon acquired it. When Elon sued to nix the deal, Dan Ives was all over CNBS saying that the deal was dead, so then I sold at $37. Of course it went back up to ~$53 when the deal closed. Bottom line, I don't think he knows what he's talking about...
  6. Congo Line

    Is ordering page down for new Roadster?

    Lol yeah it would be great if Peter taunted Elon and we ended up getting the Roadster sooner because of it.
  7. Congo Line

    Is ordering page down for new Roadster?

    Hard to have much sympathy for the YouTubers, esp. since some of them (Ben Sullins) even turned against Tesla. I wonder if Elon is holding back on production just to spite them. I've also considered what zanary is doing and just getting my deposit refunded and settling for an ICE sports car...
  8. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Easy - just duck below window level.
  9. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes; a major reason I vowed not to buy any more cars that require regular transfers of money to the Saudis (and Russians).
  10. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, you could always drive them down into negative rate territory (which is what ECB did for years, although how much it helped is debatable).
  11. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Eeyore Elon staying true to form. Why TSLA predictably drops a bit after earnings calls and investor meetings.
  12. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So then I'm curious to know, have you tried FSD on the routes that DirtyTesla drives, and if so does it function as well as it does for him? Wondering if there is a training effect from his driving same route so many times and giving feedback.
  13. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My 2cents is that currently there is still a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding out there about EVs, which will persist for a while until greater adoption occurs and more people either own one or know someone who owns one. In the meantime, advertising could help bridge that gap in...
  14. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I fail to understand this logic (that Tesla's % of EVs is not important). If we are all assuming that the EV market will gradually overtake/become the entire auto market, % of EV marketshare eventually approaches equality with total auto marketshare. On the flip side, currently Tesla's model...
  15. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even though I no longer own ARKK and think Cathie Wood's funds make some questionable trading decisions, we probably owe serious thanks to her for convincing Elon not to sell to the Saudis...
  16. Congo Line

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Wouldn't it seem feasible to build a van using the cybertruck underbody? Or perhaps a Euro-style small van using model 3/y chassis
  17. Congo Line

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Personally have always wondered the same thing; the absolute numbers for 50% annual growth get very implausible the closer one gets to 2030. Glad to see I'm not the only one. Personally, my TSLA valuation spreadsheet discounts the growth rate to more like 15-20% in those latter years.
  18. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Roadster deliveries in 2023? Given the lack of updates about status of Roadster deliveries and also the fact that I could be easily be earning 3.5% on my deposit money, I just called to ask for my deposit back. Took 20 minutes to get someone on the line; after taking my info and then having...
  19. Congo Line

    How long to get the $50k deposit back?

    Given the lack of updates about status of Roadster deliveries and also the fact that I could be easily be earning 3.5% on my deposit money, I just called to ask for my deposit back. Took 20 minutes to get someone on the line; after taking my info and then having some muffled conversations with...
  20. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I haven’t seen any information regarding competition for Tesla in the megapack market. There are some other players in this area; is it just that there is so much demand that price competition is not a concern for next couple of years?
  21. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One criticism I have of Troy's methodology is that he does not take into account that as delivery volumes increase, the inventory should logically grow in some relation to that volume. His idea of what inventory should be for GF China is 10-15k, but that inventory value is what China has had...
  22. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes but when Vanguard is buying, they're buying on behalf of their retail brokerage and index fund clients; it's not like they run trading desks. So what exactly counts as institutional?
  23. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, if capitulation involves having the highest trading volume within the past year (177M), then today's action may fit the bill.
  24. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Feels like institutions are selling into the bounce. SPY hit long-term trend ceiling right at 4100 and has been falling ever since. Seems people also nervous about JPow's comments tomorrow and whether he will put on his hawkish performance again. After CPI numbers came out, it was surprising...
  25. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I would think it works both ways. My understanding is that employees receive options based on the lowest TSLA closing price for the quarter. So a lower price now means that get to buy in at lower levels. As long as they believe the company's growth and potential value remain intact and they...
  26. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the positive side, your experience clearly shows how much ignorance still exists regarding EVs, and thus how much remaining market share there is that will eventually come around to understanding their superiority.
  27. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry, maybe I'm slow but not sure what is the exact point being made here? My interpretation is that these companies have grown into their Price by growing Earnings, and at some point reach a somewhat steady state where share prices goes up in correlation with earnings growth. Is there...
  28. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To be fair, he was correct in predicting the most recent price cuts in China.
  29. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Obviously bases his TSLA analysis on Chicken Genius' youtube channel
  30. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Maybe we'll even see something that rhymes with Sort Skis today....
  31. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    CPI numbers: 0.4% and 7.7%. Lower than expected (0.6, 7.9%). Hopefully this helps stop the bleeding. Core: 0.3, 6.3% (vs 0.5, 6.5% expected) Finally some good news
  32. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Suggests that huge short buying contributed to this drop.
  33. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's unclear to me how to interpret the seeming disconnect between P&D and China sales numbers and recent price cuts / incentives. You would think that Tesla management wouldn't keep boosting Shanghai production capacity if they thought that they couldn't sell all the cars produced. Perhaps...
  34. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dan Ives is a blowhard who does a good impression of someone who knows what they’re talking about; made the mistake of selling TWTR at $35 after he claimed the deal was dead. No longer put much stock in what he says.
  35. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you look at past times that Elon has sold TSLA, those days are almost always heavy volume down days, with little news to explain the price action, and TSLA being much more negative relative to rest of the market. Although 6% may not seem like a large proportion of the shares trading hands...
  36. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    An interesting, somewhat plausible theory on how the FTX / Binance shake-up may have impacted TSLA:
  37. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Technicals on the TSLA chart pattern are pretty much a head-and-shoulders pattern, and now we're on the downleg of the far shoulder, which is not a good place to be. One analyst I follow put his initial downside target a couple of days ago at $187, which it seems like we are bouncing off...
  38. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    JPow is a holdover appointee from a Republican administration. Controversial opinion: small but real possibility that he is intentionally tanking the markets and economy as an act of sabotage against the current administration. Whether one likes Biden or not, personally I think he made a...
  39. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is that the cost before or after the dealership adds its 'market adjustment' fee?
  40. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought FSD was horrible, then I realized I need to actually go into my settings and activate it, so the whole time I was actually still just in regular Autopilot (I thought once it downloaded it was active). I've only used it for a couple of drives, but the improvement from regular autopilot...
  41. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have a deposit on Roadster, and used to second-guess whether it was the right decision, given that it was an opportunity cost in lost investment opportunities. However, with the recent market decline, I'm pretty happy I had cash just sitting there, which otherwise might have been deployed and...
  42. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just a little lower to get it less than Tesla market cap.
  43. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same fears as before, but the impact of Friday's unexpectedly high CPI number will probably play out for a few days at least. Some talking heads suggesting Fed may need to consider 75-point hike instead of 50-point hikes.
  44. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also, availability of capital is not the sole determinant of the pace at which management can grow the business. For instance, there may not be enough supply of management and/or engineering talent available in order to grow beyond a certain rate. Or, maybe Tesla's suppliers are not able to...
  45. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Alternative possibility is that China production levels down due to covid, so less material to ship abroad. But hoping the first explanation is the correct one.
  46. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    SpaceX shares offered by employees: https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-employees-offer-sell-shares-032507061.html Apparently SpaceX employees are offering shares in a private placement. Brief articles in Bloomberg and Fortune on this; not much details as to who is coordinating the offering and...
  47. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry, it's been a while since this was discussed, but can someone remind me at what value of Bitcoin does Tesla have to report decrease in assets (due to BTC value being less than acquisition cost?) I seem to recall it was around $25k. Also, I believe they have to record it whenever BTC...
  48. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So glad I starting selling off ARKK weeks ago. She has really lost her judgement
  49. Congo Line

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm surprised he still has dry powder left given how much he previously bought.