Near-future quarterly financial projections

[damonbrodie]

What is this forum's estimate of EPS and revenue growth for next quarter due April 19th?
Apologies if I am not in the right place but new here and still trying to find my way round

Here is a summary that I've been maintaining. I believe this is the latest updates from these sources, but I haven't checked some of them in a couple days:

Source​	EPS Q1 2023 (GAAP)​
Troy Teslike	$0.76
@petit_bateau	$1.05
James Stephenson (YT)	$0.89
Matt Smith (Good Soil) (YT)	$0.86
Gary Black (Twitter)	$0.86
Street Consensus (nasdaq.com)	$0.75

 

[DarkandStormy]

Updated per feedback over the previous few weeks. Probably going to be a good 10-15% off I'm sure.

 

[heltok]

Troy with another pretty bearish 2023 estimate:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648353512022056962

Imo he is too low, we will see.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Troy with another pretty bearish 2023 estimate:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648353512022056962

Imo he is too low, we will see.

Well, assuming his Q1 regional data is accurate (and it should be for Europe and China)...for all of the "U.S. buyers are just waiting for the tax credit talk" in Q4 -> U.S. sales were basically flat QoQ from 4Q22 to 1Q23.

So much for that.

 

[bkp_duke]

Well, assuming his Q1 regional data is accurate (and it should be for Europe and China)...for all of the "U.S. buyers are just waiting for the tax credit talk" in Q4 -> U.S. sales were basically flat QoQ from 4Q22 to 1Q23.

So much for that.

Q4 to Q1 transition is rough for every automaker. Tesla typically has a decrease in sales from Q4 to Q1.

 

[EVNow]

Q4 to Q1 transition is rough for every automaker. Tesla typically has a decrease in sales from Q4 to Q1.

Not really - last few years Q1 has been flat to a little over Q4.

One thing we should always remember is Tesla is a growing company, it is valued like one. So, the expectations are different from other auto makers.

 

[Patrick66]

Troy's numbers look grossly negative to me. I expect close to 70% unit growth in Europe and more for "ROW." Canada is likely to see substantial growth as well if supply is available. The US is likely more steady-- maybe only 20% increase for the year unless something changes. Time will tell.

 

[EVNow]

Here is a summary that I've been maintaining. I believe this is the latest updates from these sources, but I haven't checked some of them in a couple days:

Source​	EPS Q1 2023 (GAAP)​
Troy Teslike	$0.76
@petit_bateau	$1.05
James Stephenson (YT)	$0.89
Matt Smith (Good Soil) (YT)	$0.86
Gary Black (Twitter)	$0.86
Street Consensus (nasdaq.com)	$0.75

I’m not sure the “street consensus” is useful. Tesla compiled and Yahoo, CNBC number is 0.85. That is what media will report.

BTW, @Troy is assuming larger reg credits than Q4 (which itself was large). In Q1 22 reg credits were huge, not sure that is seasonally correct every year though.

Also, he assumes IRA tax credits offset most of taxes. I think that’s incorrect because Tesla will have to still pay taxes in China, EU etc.

His non-gaap eps is 0.89, not .76.

 

[Singuy]

Well, assuming his Q1 regional data is accurate (and it should be for Europe and China)...for all of the "U.S. buyers are just waiting for the tax credit talk" in Q4 -> U.S. sales were basically flat QoQ from 4Q22 to 1Q23.

So much for that.

Troy expects China to decrease production and cite Q1 as an example of them cutting production. I guess he feels the Chinese new years shut down is Tesla being full of s$Ht to hide a lack of demand.

 

[Singuy]

Not really - last few years Q1 has been flat to a little over Q4.

One thing we should always remember is Tesla is a growing company, it is valued like one. So, the expectations are different from other auto makers.

Tesla is near the end of the 3/Y era of growth is about to pass the baton to cybertruck+25k car. Current time line coincide with what happened between 2016->2017. If Tesla has no new products for 2024, growth will come to a stand still so 2023 is the last year where we can see yoy growth out of the 3/y platform (in auto, not in revenue...revenue we will continue to see growth from software and storage).

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is near the end of the 3/Y era of growth is about to pass the baton to cybertruck+25k car. Current time line coincide with what happened between 2016->2017. If Tesla has no new products for 2024, growth will come to a stand still so 2023 is the last year where we can see yoy growth out of the 3/y platform (in auto, not in revenue...revenue we will continue to see growth from software and storage).

I joined TMC 8+ years before you did. You don’t have to convince me … I’m trying to understand and explain the way street thinks. Something a lot of us don’t do well here … and get surprised by the way the street acts.

 

[DarkandStormy]

IR-compiled "consensus"

 

[heltok]

Tesla is near the end of the 3/Y era of growth is about to pass the baton to cybertruck+25k car. Current time line coincide with what happened between 2016->2017. If Tesla has no new products for 2024, growth will come to a stand still so 2023 is the last year where we can see yoy growth out of the 3/y platform (in auto, not in revenue...revenue we will continue to see growth from software and storage).

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe 3/Y will see 10% efficiency production growth 2023/2024 and they can scale demand by lowering costs thanks to Wright's law etc.

I think sometimes this forum has a bit too much American centric view of Tesla. America currently has two factories and waiting times are pretty low. But in NZ/Australia there still are no S/X to be seen and very few Y in inventory(currently there is only one Model Y in inventory in Auckland) with a pretty small supercharger network. China had a very turbulent 2022 and still has some major hangover from that, we will see how the situation develops, but there are lots of BYD sales that could be Tesla sales for the right price and the flip is starting to happen with the "totally not a price war just aggressively lowering prices to increase market share". Here in Indonesia there are no Teslas yet but awareness seems pretty high. In Europe prices can still go down a bit with better localization and shipping as Berlin ramps, I wonder if Berlin might even considering adding a line for project highland. IRA should help Tesla ramp Austin and once they get in-house LFP production IRA will carry them from 2025 to 2030. And there are plenty of new markets yet smaller markets they will enter during 2023-2030.

If you look at the market segments, I think Tesla are aiming for ~20% of each to get to 20M/year in 2030:

I see 3/Y production steadily expanding and think we will continue to see aggressive price cuts, new production lines and improved production lines(with lessons from 25k car) on the way to 5M 3/Y in 2030...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Also, he assumes IRA tax credits offset most of taxes.

What are peoples thoughts on IRA credits this quarter? I haven't seen any substantial increases in reg credit assumptions in many people's models. Is there a time lag or some other issue before the advanced manufacturing production credits are recognised?

As a super rough estimate I would have thought the incremental benefit from cell/pack IRA credits would be:

Nevada: ~10m kWh @ ~$27.5 (splitting cell credit with Pana) = $275m
4680: ~3m kWh @$45//kWh = $135m
Total: $410m in incremental reg credits

 

[EVNow]

What are peoples thoughts on IRA credits this quarter? I haven't seen any substantial increases in reg credit assumptions in many people's models. Is there a time lag or some other issue before the advanced manufacturing production credits are recognised?

As a super rough estimate I would have thought the incremental benefit from cell/pack IRA credits would be:

Nevada: ~10m kWh @ ~$27.5 (splitting cell credit with Pana) = $275m
4680: ~3m kWh @$45//kWh = $135m
Total: $410m in incremental reg credits

My understanding is this is a tax credit … so, Tesla can only reduce Fed taxes it pays. I don’t know whether they carry over / refundable…

 

[CorneliusXX]

My understanding is this is a tax credit … so, Tesla can only reduce Fed taxes it pays. I don’t know whether they carry over / refundable…

I am doing a little research on it and the DOE says the followng:

Manufacturers can also monetize the tax credit through a direct payment from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is lieu of a credit against their taxes due, or opt to transfer the credit, as described below:

• Direct pay option: Manufacturers can receive a refund for 45X MPTC tax credits for the first five years they are claimed, though are still subject to the 2033 credit sunset. The five-year limitation does not apply if the manufacturer is a tax-exempt organization (i.e. non-profit), state, municipality, the Tennessee Valley Authority, Indian Tribal government, any Alaskan Native Corporation, or any rural electric cooperative. A penalty of 20% may apply where excess payments occur.[3]
• Transfer of credit: Manufacturers may also elect to transfer all, or a portion, of the tax credits for a given year to an unrelated eligible taxpayer. Payments for the credit must be made in cash and are not considered a taxable event (i.e. no taxes are owed on receiving the payment and no deduction is possible for making the payment). A penalty of 20% may apply where excess credits occur.[4]

If I am reading this correctly (and I may well not be) it sounds like Tesla would be able to sell any credits they cannot use themselves due to lack of tax obligation. I guess we may know more this evening.

 

[EVNow]

If we just take $47K ASP and 20% GM as per the question answered by Zach - we get 0.72 EPS and 22.46B revenue (assuming everything else remains the same).

Turns out this is not correct. After watching yesterday's TeslaDaily and rereading what Zach said - the 20% GM he is talking about is ex-Credits ex-Lease. I missed the ex-Lease part. That can add a good 2% to margin i.e. Zach is guiding for a higher GM than I was thinking.

With this change, $47k ASP and 20% GM (ex-credits, ex-lease) gives us 0.86 EPS and $22.47B revenue. Avg estimate has now come down to $0.85 EPS and $23.21B revenue.

ps :

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What some Tesla fans on Twitter are predicting...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648741144254193664

 

[bkp_duke]

What some Tesla fans on Twitter are predicting...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648741144254193664

Are any of these predictions including the IRA credits on the manufacturing side? As of Jan 1, those should all be fully in place.

 

[30seconds]

I joined TMC 8+ years before you did. You don’t have to convince me … I’m trying to understand and explain the way street thinks. Something a lot of us don’t do well here … and get surprised by the way the street acts.

My opinion is that the street sees volume growth offset by lower prices (and margins) needed to drive that growth so EPS & stock price may not be going anywhere for a while.

Also that there is no meaningful cyber truck revenue for at least 18 months and a $25k car could be at least two years away from volume production given recent commentary about Giga Mexico