i had to raise my estimates a bit this morning. there are several reasons/changes.
1. deliveries for q2 have adjusted modestly higher for s/x and model 3. this is because i now believe that the irs is counting vehicles towards the tax credit based on the date they are officially titled with the state. there are reports of tesla scheduling friday evening and saturday deliveries, which would mean july is the soonest a title could get registered with the state. however the friday and saturday deliveries will count towards the total for q2. not sure how many they could do this way but i assume it's 2k model 3 and 500 s/x.
2. higher deliveries in q2 means fewer holdovers to q3 and thus lower inventory. this improves cash burn in q2.
3. deliveries for model 3 in q3 and q4 have been updated higher. there are multiple reports indicating that model 3 production is now in excess of 4k per week. several vague sources have confirmed 5k weekly. an analyst note today where they counted trucks leaving the factory estimated 4300-4900 model 3's per week.
here's the old version.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q2-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,500[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,000
[/TD2][TD2]
23,000
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
65,000
[/TD2][TD2]
54,000
[/TD2][TD2]
25,000
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.76
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
60.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,169,820[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2]
[TD2]3,770,000[/TD2][TD2]3,240,000[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2]
[TD2]187,499[/TD2][TD2]181,557[/TD2][TD2]175,888[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,699,019
[/TD2][TD2]
6,068,737
[/TD2][TD2]
3,745,708
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,399,019
[/TD2][TD2]
6,823,737
[/TD2][TD2]
4,460,208
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,973,475[/TD2][TD2]1,903,069[/TD2][TD2]1,623,256[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2]
[TD2]3,072,550[/TD2][TD2]2,689,200[/TD2][TD2]1,400,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2]
[TD2]120,000[/TD2][TD2]116,197[/TD2][TD2]112,568[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,166,024
[/TD2][TD2]
4,708,465
[/TD2][TD2]
3,135,824
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,886,023
[/TD2][TD2]
5,484,964
[/TD2][TD2]
3,886,024
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,512,996
[/TD2][TD2]
1,338,773
[/TD2][TD2]
574,184
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2]
[TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]16.3%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
999,000
[/TD2][TD2]
977,175
[/TD2][TD2]
1,160,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
513,996
[/TD2][TD2]
361,598
[/TD2][TD2]
-585,816
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
347,996
[/TD2][TD2]
195,598
[/TD2][TD2]
-751,816
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
327,997
[/TD2][TD2]
175,599
[/TD2][TD2]
-771,816
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
377,998
[/TD2][TD2]
225,600
[/TD2][TD2]
-721,816
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.07
[/TD2][TD2]
1.24
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.25
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]377,998[/TD2][TD2]225,600[/TD2][TD2]-721,816[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]510,998[/TD2][TD2]358,600[/TD2][TD2]-556,816[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.79
[/TD2][TD2]
1.97
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.28
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,045,867[/TD2][TD2]1,444,728[/TD2][TD2]1,915,716[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,216,277[/TD2][TD2]1,121,710[/TD2][TD2]821,167[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,644,314[/TD2][TD2]4,808,736[/TD2][TD2]3,534,685[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
8,368,752
[/TD2][TD2]
7,810,175
[/TD2][TD2]
6,737,657
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,527,493[/TD2][TD2]2,447,866[/TD2][TD2]2,368,898[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
31,225,831
[/TD2][TD2]
29,873,554
[/TD2][TD2]
28,098,518
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,966,836[/TD2][TD2]4,868,845[/TD2][TD2]3,598,565[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]606,598[/TD2][TD2]587,488[/TD2][TD2]544,846[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,736,434
[/TD2][TD2]
10,526,824
[/TD2][TD2]
9,521,911
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]884,622[/TD2][TD2]856,753[/TD2][TD2]829,114[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
24,020,926
[/TD2][TD2]
23,894,569
[/TD2][TD2]
22,687,394
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,901,962
[/TD2][TD2]
4,676,042
[/TD2][TD2]
4,108,181
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]327,997[/TD2][TD2]175,599[/TD2][TD2]-771,816[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]48,087[/TD2][TD2]35,347[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-94,567[/TD2][TD2]-300,543[/TD2][TD2]-168,319[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]84,795[/TD2][TD2]-1,353,019[/TD2][TD2]-1,022,632[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]140,500[/TD2][TD2]1,212,272[/TD2][TD2]960,136[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,289,195
[/TD2][TD2]
513,780
[/TD2][TD2]
-249,339
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-960,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-860,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-770,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
601,139
[/TD2][TD2]
-470,988
[/TD2][TD2]
-749,957
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,444,728
[/TD2][TD2]
1,915,716
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,045,867
[/TD2][TD2]
1,444,728
[/TD2][TD2]
1,915,716
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]