Model S/X Owners Have Priority Model 3 Orders Over Non-Owners

[Az_Rael]

There is no comparable product to the Model 3, an all electric luxury sedan with a range of 200 miles at a base cost of $35,000. Other than the Bolt the cars you mention are not all electric and the Bolt is not a luxury sedan. The 2017 Volt with an electric range of less than 45 has a higher base price of $40-$45k. The Volt and Bolt are not sold in most states and are only available mainly in California and Northeast Corridor. There are non sold within 1000 miles of my location.

OK, I am going to have to call you on this, because it isn't true and it drives me nuts when people spread FUD about the Volt - the Volt is available nationwide. There are several 2017 Volts for sale at David Maus Chevrolet which is way closer than 1000 miles to you. There is always at least 1 Chevy dealer in every metro area who ends up specializing in Volts.


Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle? People buying the $35,000 model may very well cross-shop it with a Bolt, and I will bet the Bolt will probably come equipped with more features for the same amount of money (and there is the fact that no one pays MSRP for a GM car, so it will probably be priced exactly the same as the Tesla in the real world).

So if someone is looking at the base model and needs the tax credit, there is a Bolt that will be available earlier than the 3 and they might decide to jump on that and guarantee themselves the tax credit vs waiting for the base model 3, which will most likely not come with the credit. So I would say the Bolt IS a comparable vehicle when we are talking about the base models.

 

[Mike Strauss]

Not happy about this.

I find it strange.. you would think they would want to focus on new customers first. Looks like analysts have high hopes for this one https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla

 

[AnOutsider]

Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle?

I'll also point out that many are quick to note (when folks complain about shortcomings in a luxury vehicle) that Tesla bills the S (and X?) as a premium vehicle, not luxury.

 

[Sp4rky]

I find it strange.. you would think they would want to focus on new customers first. Looks like analysts have high hopes for this one https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla

Yes, but I also feel like this will benefit Tesla in two ways:
1.) Existing owners of the X and S are probably wealthier individuals who will more likely order a fully-loaded 3. This will help Tesla's profit margins on the first Model 3's off the line.
2.) Beta testing. As mentioned before, X and S owners have gone through the initial troubleshooting with their cars already. Hopefully by the time the vehicles hit the general public, they'll be able to roll out the necessary software updates for the kinks in the car. Hardware would be a different story, but at least they would have a heads-up.

It kinda sucks as a first time Tesla owner to be pushed to the back of the lines, but I'll consider a Model S CPO if I can't seem to wait. I honestly would prefer a larger car for my growing family but I'd rather have a Model 3 for the increased (probably) range and updated tech.

 

[MiamiNole]

OK, I am going to have to call you on this, because it isn't true and it drives me nuts when people spread FUD about the Volt - the Volt is available nationwide. There are several 2017 Volts for sale at David Maus Chevrolet which is way closer than 1000 miles to you. There is always at least 1 Chevy dealer in every metro area who ends up specializing in Volts.


Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle? People buying the $35,000 model may very well cross-shop it with a Bolt, and I will bet the Bolt will probably come equipped with more features for the same amount of money (and there is the fact that no one pays MSRP for a GM car, so it will probably be priced exactly the same as the Tesla in the real world).

So if someone is looking at the base model and needs the tax credit, there is a Bolt that will be available earlier than the 3 and they might decide to jump on that and guarantee themselves the tax credit vs waiting for the base model 3, which will most likely not come with the credit. So I would say the Bolt IS a comparable vehicle when we are talking about the base models.

For what it's worth, I did recently see a Volt here in Florida when I was driving to LEGOLAND in Winter Haven, FL so I can corroborate that they are here.

As for the second comment, we've heard that the Model 3 will be a competitor to the BMW-3 series which most in the States would consider to be an entry-level luxury car. We've also heard JB recently compare the Model 3's size to an Audi A4. I don't think him picking an Audi for comparison was a coincidence. They are marketing the Model 3 as an EV that entry-level luxury competitor. JB also hinted that the amount of features included would be surprising, although I can't definitely say if he specifically meant base model. At any rate, I wouldn't necessarily say that the base Model 3 will definitely come less equipped than an equally priced Bolt. Granted, there will probably be some amenities included in a fully optioned Bolt that we won't see in a base Model 3, but with the Model 3 being a Tesla, I'm pretty sure there will be plenty included in the base that the Bolt won't have!

 

[StapleGun]

Yes, they will. And, like you, I too will be standing in line on the 31st. I'm totally fine with existing owners moving ahead of us - if not for them, we would not have a line to stand in. In fact, if I were Elon, I'd allow Roadster owners to get ahead of the Model S&X owners too!

I consider this excellent incentivizing, costs the company nothing and continues to promote brand-loyalty.

Well played Tesla!

I'm still on the fence as to whether this is a wonderful gesture that is well deserved by the early adopters or whether this is a great injustice for all of us who couldn't afford a Model S and now might lose out on a non-trivial portion of the tax credit. A big factor in how I feel about it is just how literally the "jump to the front of the line" clause is applied. I have no issues with an owner who reserves after me but still in-store on the 31st getting priority over me. If an S owner hears in November 2017 that deliveries are about to start and reserves one just for the hell of it and gets priority over me, then I would not be pleased. (Assume for the sake of simplicity that we are both in the same location and configure the same options)

All I want is some clarification. I doubt anyone outside of Tesla will know the answer until the actual roll-out starts, but I can hope can't I?

 

[SureValla]

This was just posted today on SeekingAlpha.com and seems to represent a lot of the sentiment in this thread

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959968-tesla-limiting-us-model-3-masses#alt2

As a non-owner, non-employee, ordering a mid range package, on the East Coast I don't feel confident in my chances at the 7500 tax credit. I realize there's nothing I can do so I'm over it. Just means I gotta invest some more cash to make it up!

I also realized that by putting down a deposit Current S and X owners are essentially comitting to upgrade their vehicles come 2.5-3 years from now. If I were an owner this seems like a no brainer.

 

[ProphetM]

The more I think about it, the less concerned I'm feeling about the tax credit being gone. They have to hit 200,000 deliveries, then reach the end of the following quarter before it even starts to ramp down. It seems unlikely to me that anyone reserving in the first two days is going to end up beyond that unless their production ramp is really slow, like even slower than the X.

 

[ELRev]

The more I think about it, the less concerned I'm feeling about the tax credit being gone. They have to hit 200,000 deliveries, then reach the end of the following quarter before it even starts to ramp down. It seems unlikely to me that anyone reserving in the first two days is going to end up beyond that unless their production ramp is really slow, like even slower than the X.

This +100.

I've tried to re-iterate this several times over the last week or so amid all the concern, but the sentiment seems to be washed away quickly as posts continue to flood each respective thread. Instead, I'll just continue to support anyone else who brings up the same point.

If Tesla managed to sell another 100,000 cars in the 3-6 months (i.e. the rest of that quarter and one additional quarter), depending on the date following their 200,000th car sold in the US, every single one of those buyers would benefit from the FULL $7500 tax incentive. For people on these forums hanging on Tesla's every word, prepared to reserve a Model 3 literally ASAP, I really doubt anyone should be concerned about missing out. Who knows what production numbers will be like per week/month by late 2017, but I can say with near-certainty that there will be significantly higher output by then. Thousands and thousands of people who might think they'll miss out will be happily proven wrong in 2 years or so.

 

[EVNow]

If Tesla managed to sell another 100,000 cars in the 3-6 months (i.e. the rest of that quarter and one additional quarter), depending on the date following their 200,000th car sold in the US, every single one of those buyers would benefit from the FULL $7500 tax incentive.

This seems highly unlikely.

First, the most likely scenario is that Tesla will scramble to deliver the first 3 in 2017 and then 3 ramp up will be slow. Even large OEMs have had difficulty producing EVs on time. Thousands of parts need to be all produced in large quantities with low defect rates. Essentially, there are hundreds of critical paths. There is virtually no chance of Tesla making that many 3s in 3 to 6 months in 2018.

If the tax credits don't get extended (I think this is quite unlikely, esp. if Rs lose heavily in Nov.) - the chances of any non-s/x/roadster owner getting tax credit is low.

 

[EVNow]

Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle? People buying the $35,000 model may very well cross-shop it with a Bolt, and I will bet the Bolt will probably come equipped with more features for the same amount of money (and there is the fact that no one pays MSRP for a GM car, so it will probably be priced exactly the same as the Tesla in the real world).

One of the other big things to consider is lease. Tesla is simply not in a position to offer the same kind of leases traditional companies can offer. On a monthly basis Bolt / Leaf 2 will likely be quite a bit less than Model 3.

Infact, I've always said, if Bolt / Leaf 2 are not cheaper than Model 3, why would anyone buy them ?

Putting it differently, highly price conscious people are likely to get a Bolt or Leaf 2 than a Model 3, because of cost savings.

 

[ELRev]

This seems highly unlikely.

First, the most likely scenario is that Tesla will scramble to deliver the first 3 in 2017 and then 3 ramp up will be slow. Even large OEMs have had difficulty producing EVs on time. Thousands of parts need to be all produced in large quantities with low defect rates. Essentially, there are hundreds of critical paths. There is virtually no chance of Tesla making that many 3s in 3 to 6 months in 2018.

If the tax credits don't get extended (I think this is quite unlikely, esp. if Rs lose heavily in Nov.) - the chances of any non-s/x/roadster owner getting tax credit is low.

The number was just to make a point. I don't expect that they'll sell 100,000 more cars in that 3-6 month period. The point is they'll be making more cars per week when they cross that 200,000 car threshold than they're making right now. How many more is yet to be seen. When they'll hit 200k is also unknown. You're making a lot more assumptions than I am by suggesting you know their "scramble" plans at 2017's end and that things will progress slowly from there.

Tesla is building a Gigafactory with the intention of speeding up, not slowing down. And they won't be rolling out prototypes to early Model 3 adopters. They'll be fully functional cars. No release so far has been perfect, but there's a lot riding on this release. They know that a lot better than we do. I think we'll see plenty of cars shipped in the 3-6 months after 200k, and not every single Roadster/S/X owner or employee will actually end up buying one. Reservations are easy to make. Paying in full is a different story.

For anyone in the first batch of reservations, like those from the people paying hyper-attention to Tesla's plans on this forum, the chances of benefiting from the tax incentive greatly increase. Is that to say every person who reads this forum, lives on the East coast, and orders a base Model 3 will get the full credit? No. But we're talking potentially 10s of thousands of orders that will ship out in the two relevant business quarters we're discussing. It's not a full-stop deadline. A lot of people will benefit that are assuming otherwise right now as the seemingly disadvantageous news piles on.

 

[Darryl]

OK, I am going to have to call you on this, because it isn't true and it drives me nuts when people spread FUD about the Volt - the Volt is available nationwide. There are several 2017 Volts for sale at David Maus Chevrolet which is way closer than 1000 miles to you. There is always at least 1 Chevy dealer in every metro area who ends up specializing in Volts.


Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle? People buying the $35,000 model may very well cross-shop it with a Bolt, and I will bet the Bolt will probably come equipped with more features for the same amount of money (and there is the fact that no one pays MSRP for a GM car, so it will probably be priced exactly the same as the Tesla in the real world).

So if someone is looking at the base model and needs the tax credit, there is a Bolt that will be available earlier than the 3 and they might decide to jump on that and guarantee themselves the tax credit vs waiting for the base model 3, which will most likely not come with the credit. So I would say the Bolt IS a comparable vehicle when we are talking about the base models.

In early 2015 we started to look for a replacement for my wife's Prius. I had reserved a Model X in 2014. We looked at the Cadilac ELR which was at an EV show at the Kennedy Space Center but we were told by the marketing person they were not sold in this region. (They have since stopped making them will be making a model CT6 sometime in 2016. This will be a hybrid plug-in.) We looked at the BMW i3 and they were tiny and way over priced.

We couldn't look at the Toyota plug-in as they are not marketed in this area. In looking today it says the production of the Toyota Prius plugin has been suspended.

Finally we looked at the Chevy Volt. My wife liked it but there were some things she didn't like about the 2015 model. The hump in the back, no active avoidance, had to use high octane gas, very limited electric range and some other small issues. They told us the 2016 Model solved all of her concerns. Before the 2016 came out we contacted both local dealers and told them to contact us as soon as the 2016 was available as we wanted to place an order. In about August We contacted both of the local dealers (Melbourne and Cocoa) and both dealers told us they could sell us a 2015 but they were not getting any 2016 allocations. Over the next seversl months we got the same story each time we contacted either of these dealers. We were finally told by the Melbourne Dealership there were none in the whole SE. So I emailed the Cocoa Dealership and told the same story. Also both dealerships told us they could not accept an order for one. Even if we went on-line it would show 0 available in our area. We expanded out as far as it would go with the same results.

We could put in our ZIP code in Viginia and they showed plenty. After that we stopped looking and decided we would just make do until the Model 3 came out. Therefore we have not checked recently since the 2017 came out. I just checked after getting your response and there are still none locally but at least there are a few 2017 listed for Orlando. If we could have gotten a 2016 we would have ordered it. Now I have the Model X and she sees how nice it is she has lost interest in even considering a hybrid plug-in. My wife is temporarily using my Jaguar and she gave the Toyota to a single mom who had no car I just wish the partnership between Elon Musk and Mr Toyoda the head of Toyota had not ended so bad. Toyota was really the leader in the hybrid market. I read somewhere about 28 months ago they are leaning towards fuel cell technology.

 

[gregincal]

This seems highly unlikely.

First, the most likely scenario is that Tesla will scramble to deliver the first 3 in 2017 and then 3 ramp up will be slow. Even large OEMs have had difficulty producing EVs on time. Thousands of parts need to be all produced in large quantities with low defect rates. Essentially, there are hundreds of critical paths. There is virtually no chance of Tesla making that many 3s in 3 to 6 months in 2018.

If the tax credits don't get extended (I think this is quite unlikely, esp. if Rs lose heavily in Nov.) - the chances of any non-s/x/roadster owner getting tax credit is low.

But if they're not making many cars, then it will take longer to hit the 200K limit as well.

 

[EVNow]

I consider this excellent incentivizing, costs the company nothing and continues to promote brand-loyalty.

I've seen this and similar comments saying it is a "smart" business decision. I find the characterization puzzling.

Most companies try to expand customer base. This is the reason they offer incentives for new customers.

Most companies also incentivize loyalty in some way (when they threaten to "quit" or by giving a discount for a new car like Nissan did with Leaf owners).

But I've never heard of a case where existing owners are placed ahead of new customers. What exactly is this trying to achieve ? Are current tesla owners threatening to stop liking their cars if they don't get priority ? No. So, why invent an incentive to solve n problem that doesn't exist.

How would people react if Apple says, existing iPhone users get a priority - and Android users who stand in line to get a new iPhone - will be demoted in the queue ?! Would anyone call that "smart" ?

What if later, Tesla announces that in superchargers S/X owners get preference over 3 owners ? If you are waiting in line for a SC, someone with an S/X comes, you have to yield to them ?!

 

[EVNow]

But if they're not making many cars, then it will take longer to hit the 200K limit as well.

I expect them to continue making S/X in large numbers.

 

[gregincal]

I expect them to continue making S/X in large numbers.

It depends on what you mean by large numbers. Last year Tesla sold 25K cars in the US, to bring themselves to 62K cars counting towards the cap. It would take the Model 3 being really delayed for them to reach 200K on Model S and X alone.

 

[Jerico]

This +100.

I've tried to re-iterate this several times over the last week or so amid all the concern, but the sentiment seems to be washed away quickly as posts continue to flood each respective thread. Instead, I'll just continue to support anyone else who brings up the same point.

If Tesla managed to sell another 100,000 cars in the 3-6 months (i.e. the rest of that quarter and one additional quarter), depending on the date following their 200,000th car sold in the US, every single one of those buyers would benefit from the FULL $7500 tax incentive. For people on these forums hanging on Tesla's every word, prepared to reserve a Model 3 literally ASAP, I really doubt anyone should be concerned about missing out. Who knows what production numbers will be like per week/month by late 2017, but I can say with near-certainty that there will be significantly higher output by then. Thousands and thousands of people who might think they'll miss out will be happily proven wrong in 2 years or so.

I totally agree and I think the tax incentive may be extended more than initially planned. Something like creating a 'pool' with all the remaining cars granted with the tax incentive from all the OEM's once the first one hits 200.000 EV's sold so any automaker can 'use' them. I know, more wishful thinking than a solid possibility but I think the government should reward those that launched EV's first.

I feel your pain, I want a basic model, non-owner and in Spain so not expecting the car in less than 4 years... As much as it hurts, I find it a good move to prioritize existing owners and employees. Some say they are the rich people (owners) so they don't need the priority nor the incentive. But the thing is they placed a bet on Tesla they didn't have to. They could have bought another car but they waited for a Roadster, a Model S and now, a Model X. And they are the best Tesla Salesmen out there. And Tesla employees deserve a lot of credit so this crucial moment in the history of the company is the perfect one to reward them and to motivate them for the hard work they are doing and the harder one ahead.

Sorry if all of this has been said (most surely).

 

[Foxhound199]

What if later, Tesla announces that in superchargers S/X owners get preference over 3 owners ? If you are waiting in line for a SC, someone with an S/X comes, you have to yield to them ?!

Definitely agree, or maybe S/X customers will get faster service center appointments, whereas 3 customers will wait weeks. These may seem ridiculous, but they're the seeds of doubt that creep in any time a company starts suggesting that they value the business of a certain class of customers over another.

Like I've said before, Tesla is free to march to the beat of its own drum. But if someone's saying this is the "smart" or the "right" thing to do, I have a hard time seeing where they're coming from.

 

[ohmman]

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Tesla might also play their delivery numbers so that the 199,000 --> 200,001 range falls somewhere at the very beginning of a quarter. It would be easy enough to do, and they've always been aware of the synergies with tax credits and incentives.